Amit Kukreja
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Amit Kukreja

by @amitinvesting

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Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!
Ask about Amit KukrejaAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

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CPI DATA, WILL SOFTWARE CONTINUE TO GO DOWN, CEASEFIRE TALKS BEGIN TODAY | MARKET OPEN

Investors should prioritize NVIDIA (NVDA) as it tests the $190 resistance level, benefiting from a massive rotation out of software and into semiconductors. Amazon (AMZN) is a high-conviction play with a $300 price target as AWS growth re-accelerates and its proprietary Trainium chips sell out. For Palantir (PLTR), maintain a cautious stance and watch the $125 support level; a break below this could signal a further slide toward the $100–$115 range. The "Neo-Cloud" sector offers high momentum through Nebius (NBIS) and CoreWeave, though investors must be wary of potential share dilution from capital-intensive GPU purchases. While the broader software sector (IGV) is currently under extreme pressure, Broadcom (AVGO) and AMD remain strong semiconductor alternatives with price targets of $375 and $250 respectively.

Palantir FALLS 12% In Two Days, Trump Gets His Ceasefire, Amazon Is READY To Win | Daily Recap

Investors should begin deploying "dry powder" into the S&P 500 following recent stabilization, as the market appears to have established a near-term floor. Amazon (AMZN) is a high-conviction "buy and hold" cornerstone, with AWS and Trainium chips expected to drive operating margins from 11% toward 25%. The recent 20% sell-off in Palantir (PLTR) offers a strategic entry point near $125–$130, as its deep data "Ontology" provides a competitive moat against emerging AI rivals. Meta (META) remains a strong momentum play as its core advertising business grows at 33% and new AI models like Muse Spark gain significant market traction. Within the broader tech sector, favor specific winners like Microsoft (MSFT) and AMD over broad software ETFs, as hardware remains the essential backbone for any AI software success.

WORST DAY FOR SOFTWARE THIS YEAR, OIL BELOW 100, S&P STAYS GREEN | MARKET CLOSE

Investors should look to Amazon (AMZN) as a top "Magnificent 7" pick, as its Trainium chips have reached a $20 billion annual run rate, positioning the company as a dominant AI infrastructure play. In the semiconductor space, Marvell (MRVL) is a high-conviction networking trade with a new price target of $150, while NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the gold standard with a year-end fair value estimate of $230-$240. For those eyeing the "memory super-cycle," SanDisk (WDC) and Micron (MU) offer strong momentum as AI models demand massive increases in DRAM. Palantir (PLTR) presents a high-risk "buy the dip" opportunity near the $125-$126 support level, though investors should be wary of volatility caused by new AI agents from competitors like Anthropic. Within the struggling software sector, prioritize resilient cybersecurity leaders like CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) over traditional SaaS providers.

INFLATION DATA, CEASEFIRE STALLED, NEW COREWEAVE DEAL, META NEW MODELS | MARKET OPEN

Investors should treat Meta Platforms (META) as a core AI infrastructure play following its massive $35 billion capacity expansion with CoreWeave (CORV) and its superior new multimodal AI models. Amazon (AMZN) remains an undervalued AI asset, with its internal chip business reaching a $20 billion run rate and a potential valuation catalyst via its 15% stake in Anthropic. In the semiconductor space, Marvell (MRVL) is a high-conviction pick with a new $150 price target, while Intel (INTC) is gaining momentum through its strategic AI collaboration with Google. Conversely, exercise caution with Palantir (PLTR) as it faces selling pressure; monitor the $130 support level closely to determine if institutional profit-taking will continue. For a macro hedge, maintain exposure to energy via ExxonMobil (XOM) or Chevron (CVX) to protect against geopolitical volatility in the Strait of Hormuz.

MARKETS TRY TO HOLD ON TO THE CEASEFIRE GREEN | MARKET CLOSE

Investors should monitor Meta Platforms (META) as it gains bullish momentum following the launch of its MuseSpark AI model, with the market reacting positively to new API monetization strategies. While the broader market rallied, Palantir (PLTR) experienced a sharp 6% decline; look for a potential "nibble" entry point in the low $130s if the institutional sell-off stabilizes. Applied Digital (APLD) remains a high-growth play in AI infrastructure after reporting a 140% year-over-year revenue surge, suggesting investors are prioritizing data center expansion over short-term earnings misses. In the semiconductor and hardware space, Intel (INTC) and Corning (GLW) are showing strong leadership, benefiting from a shift in capital toward AI fiber and optics. For those tracking the software sector (IGV), exercise caution with traditional SaaS names like Salesforce (CRM) as new AI agents from competitors like Anthropic create near-term disruption fears.

CEASEFIRE REACHED, STOCKS LOVE IT, GREEN | MARKET OPEN

With the geopolitical ceasefire easing market fear, investors should consider a 10% to 20% entry into the S&P 500 (SPY), targeting a recovery range of 680–690. NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a high-conviction buy with a fair value target of $230, while Broadcom (AVGO) offers a strategic way to play the massive growth in custom AI silicon. For aggressive growth, Grab Holdings (GRAB) is undervalued with a price target of $7 as it scales its fintech and loan portfolio. Rocket Lab (RKLB) serves as a volatile proxy for the space industry, with a long-term exit target of $100 timed around the SpaceX IPO. Finally, the drop in oil prices creates a tactical opportunity in travel stocks like Delta (DAL) and United (UAL), which benefit from immediate margin expansion.

TRUMP'S DEADLINE APPROACHES, MARKETS SHRUG IT OFF, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE

Investors should prioritize Broadcom (AVGO) as a core AI infrastructure play following its deal with Anthropic, targeting an upside move toward the $340–$344 resistance range. For high-growth exposure, Rocket Lab (RKLB) serves as a strong SpaceX proxy with a technical price target of $75. The cybersecurity sector remains a high-conviction area, specifically Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD), which are benefiting from increased AI-driven security threats and significant insider buying. NVIDIA (NVDA) is a tactical buy on dips near $175, with a break above $185 likely signaling a run toward $190. Finally, the sharp decline in Crude Oil acts as a broad market catalyst, making fintech names like Robinhood (HOOD) attractive long-term holds as they look to bounce back toward the $80–$85 level.

TODAY IS TRUMP'S DEADLINE, ANTHROPIC PASSES $30B REVENUE, BROADCOM GOOGLE DEAL | MARKET OPEN

Investors should exercise extreme caution and avoid "buying the dip" until the Tuesday 8 p.m. military deadline passes, as geopolitical volatility remains high. Crude Oil (WTI) is a high-conviction play for further escalation, with analysts targeting $120 to $150 per barrel if supply routes are disrupted. Broadcom (AVGO) remains a top "pick and shovel" investment to capitalize on Anthropic’s explosive revenue growth and the shift toward custom AI silicon. UnitedHealth (UNH) and other managed care providers like Clover Health (CLOV) offer immediate value following a surprise government rate increase that provides a new fundamental floor for the sector. While Intel (INTC) is gaining momentum through its "TerraFab" partnership with SpaceX and Tesla, Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) face continued downward pressure due to product delays and liquidity shifts.

Trump Gives A FINAL Iran Deadline, SpaceX Is READY To Go Public, Oil Isn't Falling Yet | Daily Recap

Investors should monitor the Tuesday 8:00 PM ET deadline for Middle East negotiations, as a failure to reach a deal could spike Oil prices above $112 and delay interest rate cuts until 2027. If energy prices remain high, Delta (DAL) is the preferred airline play because its ownership of a refinery provides a unique hedge against rising fuel costs that are currently hurting competitors. In the space sector, Rocket Lab (RKLB) serves as the primary public proxy for those seeking exposure ahead of a potential $2 trillion SpaceX IPO. The massive private valuations for OpenAI and Anthropic suggest that public AI leaders like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) may currently be undervalued by comparison. With $8 trillion sitting in cash, any de-escalation in geopolitical tensions could trigger a massive rally as sidelined capital rotates back into equities.

TRUMP SAYS TUESDAY IS FINAL, MARKETS HOLD ON TO THE GREEN, PRIVATE CREDIT ISSUES | MARKET CLOSE

Investors should consider UnitedHealth Group (UNH) as a turnaround play following a favorable Medicare Advantage rate hike, with a price target of $400 by year-end 2027. In the private credit space, Blue Owl Capital (OBDC) offers a "buy the dip" opportunity as it trades at a discount to its $15 net asset value despite market fears over software exposure. Exercise extreme caution with Tesla (TSLA), as analysts warn of a 60% downside toward $145 due to slowing delivery growth and weakening EV demand. For indirect AI exposure, Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOGL) remain top picks due to their strategic stakes in Anthropic and vertical integration of custom AI chips. Maintain "dry powder" or cash reserves until after the Tuesday 8 p.m. geopolitical deadline, as oil price volatility between $75 and $150 hinges on U.S.-Iran tensions.

TRUMP EXTENDS HIS DEADLINE, MARKETS LOOKING FOR A PEACE DEAL, OIL STILL ABOVE 100 | MARKET OPEN

Investors should consider Microsoft (MSFT) as a high-conviction rebound play with a price target of $400-$415 if upcoming earnings confirm strong Copilot adoption. The semiconductor memory sector is in a structural upswing, making Micron (MU) and Seagate (STX) top tactical picks following recent institutional upgrades. Apple (AAPL) remains a core AI play as markets begin to price in the massive revenue potential of a monetized, AI-integrated Siri agent. While NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a dominant holding, investors should avoid selling covered calls ahead of earnings to capture potential "beat and raise" momentum. Given the "Tuesday 8 p.m." geopolitical deadline, maintain a hedge through energy exposure or cash, as Crude Oil prices above $110 pose a significant recession risk to broader equities.

TRUMP THREATHENS TO ATTACK, OIL THE HIGHEST IN WEEKS | MARKET FUTURES

Investors should prioritize energy giants Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) as high oil prices and depleted strategic reserves could drive crude toward a $120–$150 range. For those seeking a "war proxy" rebound, Delta (DAL) is the safest airline play due to its internal refinery hedge, while United (UAL) offers higher reward potential if a ceasefire occurs. In the space sector, Rocket Lab (RKLB) serves as the best retail proxy to capture the "halo effect" and sympathetic rally from SpaceX’s rumored $2 trillion valuation. While Bitcoin (BTC) is showing short-term strength, caution is advised unless it holds the $70,000 level, as it remains highly sensitive to geopolitical escalations. Long-term investors can find value in Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT), which are currently trading at attractive valuation multiples despite recent market volatility.

BONDI IS OUT, OIL STAYS HIGH, OPENAI ACQUIRES A NEW COMPANY | MARKET CLOSE

Investors should monitor the S&P 500 for stability above Monday’s lows, as the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines and oil supply risks. Crude Oil prices holding above $110 provide a bullish tailwind for U.S. energy producers but pose a significant inflation risk to broader consumer spending. The massive $2 trillion private valuation target for SpaceX makes public space stocks like Rocket Lab (RKLB), AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) attractive "proxy trades" for retail investors. Intel (INTC) is showing renewed momentum following a $14.2 billion debt buyback, with analysts anticipating further positive catalysts over the next two weeks. Conversely, Tesla (TSLA) faces short-term pressure due to weak delivery and energy storage data, shifting its investment thesis heavily toward future RoboTaxi and robotics success.

TRUMP DOESN'T GIVE CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE WAR ENDING, MARKETS GO RED | MARKET OPEN

Investors should exercise extreme caution with the S&P 500 (SPY), as a drop below the 630 level would signal a new yearly low amid heightened geopolitical volatility. To hedge against rising energy costs and potential strikes on Iranian infrastructure, consider positions in Occidental Petroleum (OXY) or the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE), which could see Crude Oil push toward $120+ within the next two weeks. Avoid the current dip in Tesla (TSLA) and Nike (NKE) until earnings commentary clarifies declining growth in energy storage and brand demand, respectively. NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the preferred "buy the dip" candidate for resilient AI exposure, while speculative plays like Nebius (NBIS) and Rocket Lab (RKLB) offer high-risk alternatives to the overvalued SpaceX IPO. Monitor private credit funds like Blue Owl (OBDC) for rising redemption rates, as high dividends in this sector may become unsustainable "yield traps" due to liquidity stress.

TRUMP OVAL OFFICE ADDRESS ON THE IRAN WAR

Investors should consider an accumulation strategy for NVIDIA (NVDA) by buying recent dips, though they should remain cautious as geopolitical volatility prevents a definitive price bottom. Domestic energy producers are well-positioned as Oil (WTI) faces upward pressure toward the $103–$104 range due to potential strikes on Iranian infrastructure and threats to the Strait of Hormuz. Avoid the speculative "bubble" surrounding SpaceX's private valuation of $1.75 trillion, which analysts view as fundamentally disconnected from its current $15 billion revenue. Conversely, Palantir (PLTR) is viewed as a more stable growth play as its increasing revenue begins to justify its market capitalization compared to newer private ventures. Maintain a long-term five-year outlook on high-conviction stocks to navigate a choppy market influenced by S&P 500 volatility and shifting Fed interest rate expectations.

IRANS PRESIDENT RESPONDS, MARKETS TRY TO GO GREEN 2 DAYS IN A ROW | MARKET CLOSE

The S&P 500 (SPY) has regained bullish momentum by holding the critical 652 level, making "buying the dip" a viable strategy ahead of the April 8th earnings season. Intel (INTC) remains a high-conviction recovery play following its $14 billion debt buyback, signaling a significantly strengthened balance sheet. Palantir (PLTR) is a top pick for AI enterprise adoption as its AIP Bootcamps and Ontology framework drastically accelerate software deployment timelines for major corporations. Investors should monitor the potential SpaceX IPO targeted for June, though its projected $1.7 trillion valuation suggests significant pricing risk compared to established peers like Meta (META). For broader market exposure, look toward Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT), which are primary beneficiaries of the massive $122 billion capital injection into the OpenAI ecosystem.

CAN THE MARKET CONTINUE GREEN FOR THE SECOND DAY IN A ROW | MARKET OPEN

Monitor the S&P 500 (SPY) closely; if it holds above the 652 level, it confirms a technical breakout with a price target of 670. Investors should consider Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Oracle (ORCL) as the primary public proxies to capture the explosive growth of OpenAI following its record-breaking funding round. Micron (MU) remains a high-conviction "buy the dip" opportunity at or near $350, as it is currently undervalued relative to its role in the AI memory supercycle. Avoid Nike (NKE) for now, as it faces a multi-year recovery and high valuation; instead, rotate capital into Meta or Alphabet (GOOGL) for better growth at lower price multiples. For those seeking a geopolitical hedge, Intel (INTC) is gaining bullish momentum as a U.S.-based manufacturing alternative to Taiwan-centric chipmakers.

TRUMP SAYS WAR WILL END SOON, MARKETS LIKE IT, 2% ON THE S&P, 48 HOURS OF GLORY? | MARKET CLOSE

Watch for the S&P 500 to hold above the 652 pivot level, which could trigger a short-term rally toward 670, though investors should remain cautious as this move is largely driven by volatile geopolitical headlines. NVIDIA (NVDA) presents a tactical opportunity if it clears $175, targeting a move to $185, while $164 serves as the critical floor to manage risk. In the technology sector, use any bounce in Meta (META) toward $585 to reduce exposure, but consider Biotech (XBI) and Rocket Lab (RKLB) as they are currently exhibiting the strongest relative market strength. Tesla (TSLA) is a high-conviction "squeeze" candidate toward $415 if upcoming delivery numbers surprise the upside, provided it maintains support at $356. For contrarian plays, avoid the weakness in Nike (NKE) and instead look toward Pfizer (PFE) or Gold (GLD), which have both shown resilience by decoupling from recent market volatility.

TRUMP SIGNALS THAT HE IS READY TO END THE WAR, MARKETS LIKE IT | MARKET OPEN

Investors should consider buying the dip on Oracle (ORCL) near the $140 level, as its massive OpenAI infrastructure contracts make it a high-value hyperscaler trading at a multi-year low valuation. Meta Platforms (META) is also a high-conviction buy in the $520–$540 range, offering an attractive entry point at 18x earnings before an expected institutional rotation back into the stock. For NVIDIA (NVDA), the recommended strategy is to hold shares while selling weekly covered calls at a 0.1 to 0.2 Delta to generate income during current market volatility. Marvell (MRVL) is a top pick for AI networking following a $2 billion investment from NVIDIA, while Rocket Lab (RKLB) remains a preferred growth play in the space sector with a recent buy trigger at $57. Avoid Micron (MU) for now due to cyclical risks in memory pricing, and remain cautious on the broader Software (IGV) sector until the April earnings cycle provides more clarity on AI monetization.

BILL ACKMAN SAYS BUY THE DIP, TRUMP SAYS IT WILL BE OVER SOON, DO THE MARKETS BELIEVE? | MARKET OPEN

With the market in "Extreme Fear," investors should look to accumulate high-conviction growth names like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR), which remain primary candidates for a rebound despite macro volatility. Meta Platforms (META) is currently viewed as a superior value play over Microsoft, offering 33% top-line growth at an attractive valuation of roughly 15 times earnings. For those seeking high-upside "multi-bagger" potential, Zeta Global (ZETA) is highlighted for its consistent profitability and competitive AI positioning against The Trade Desk. To hedge against ongoing geopolitical instability and rising oil prices, maintaining exposure to energy giants Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) is recommended. Finally, be cautious with SoFi (SOFI) due to recent short-seller allegations, but watch for a management rebuttal as a potential catalyst for a relief rally.