Amit Kukreja
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Amit Kukreja

by @amitinvesting

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Breaking down stocks, business, tech. Thank you for following along the journey!
Ask about Amit KukrejaAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

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557 posts
ORACLE EARNINGS, OIL SPIKES UP AGAIN, TECHNICAL TUESDAY | MARKET CLOSE

Oracle (ORCL) is a high-conviction growth play following a "quadruple beat" in earnings, with a technical price target of $178–$180 if it maintains momentum above its 50-day moving average. NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a top large-cap pick leading into the GTC Conference on March 17th, though investors should watch for a "sell the news" event if the stock hits resistance at $195. For the software sector, look to accumulate Microsoft (MSFT) near support levels of $392–$395 and Salesforce (CRM) at $195 as these high-quality names begin to bottom out. In the energy space, Crude Oil and the USO ETF offer a "catch-up" trade opportunity as long as prices hold above $75 and $92 respectively amid geopolitical tensions. Given that interest rate cuts may be delayed until September, investors should consider using covered calls on existing positions to generate income during this period of market volatility.

OIL PRICES CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE, TRUMP SAYS WAR WILL END SOON, BILL ACKMAN WANTS IPO | MARKET OPEN

Investors should maintain a bullish outlook on NVIDIA (NVDA) as it expands into software and AI agents, with the upcoming GTC Conference serving as a major price catalyst. Oracle (ORCL) presents a high-conviction opportunity if earnings guidance confirms the $300 billion OpenAI partnership, potentially driving the stock back toward the $150-$155 range. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is a strong momentum play following a Bank of America upgrade to a $24 price target, though investors should expect continued volatility. Conversely, caution is advised for the software sector (IGV, CRM, ADBE) as NVIDIA’s entry into AI agents threatens traditional SaaS business models. In the energy sector, the removal of the "war premium" makes Crude Oil (WTI) and stocks like Exxon (XOM) bearish targets as prices stabilize near $88-$90.

OIL REVERSES, TRUMP SAYS WAR COULD BE OVER SOON, MARKETS TRY TO RECOVER | MARKET CLOSE

The S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) have signaled a strong bullish reversal following geopolitical de-escalation, with the 670 level on the S&P serving as a critical support floor for new long positions. Investors should consider NVIDIA (NVDA) and Marvell (MRVL) as high-conviction plays, specifically targeting the shift toward "Photonics" and optical interconnects as the next major AI infrastructure bottleneck. Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) remains a high-reward momentum trade with a potential short squeeze target of $30 following the resolution of its legal battle with Novo Nordisk. For those betting on lower energy costs, American Airlines (AAL) offers a direct tactical trade to benefit from the sharp downward reversal in Crude Oil (WTI) prices toward the $85 range. In the software sector, Rubrik (RUBR) presents a compelling valuation play at 7x EV/Sales for investors seeking a discounted entry into AI-driven data security.

OIL ABOVE $100, G7 COUNTRIES TRY TO BRING IT DOWN, IRAN WAR CONTINUES | MARKET OPEN

With oil prices spiking above $100/barrel, investors should consider hedging against inflation by holding energy giants like Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX), while avoiding fuel-sensitive sectors like Airlines and Cruise Lines. Hims & Hers (HIMS) presents a high-conviction growth opportunity following the dismissal of major legal risks, though investors should watch for a stable entry point between $22 and $25. In the technology sector, NVIDIA (NVDA) has established a strong support floor at $170, making it a primary target for dip buyers ahead of broader AI infrastructure growth. Defense remains a critical theme, with large-cap contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT) offering stability, while small-cap drone stocks like Red Cat (RCAT) provide high-risk, high-reward exposure to geopolitical tensions. To navigate current market volatility and "Extreme Fear" levels, consider generating yield through Covered Calls on stable mega-cap names like Meta (META) or Amazon (AMZN).

Palantir’s Role In A Changing World | Ft. Adam

Investors should consider Palantir Technologies (PLTR) as it evolves into a high-margin defense powerhouse with a projected revenue path toward $40 billion by 2030. The company is securing massive 10-year, $10 billion contract vehicles with the U.S. Army, Air Force, and Navy, providing long-term revenue visibility that traditional analysts may be underestimating. Because PLTR acts as a model-agnostic infrastructure provider, it maintains a competitive moat over AI model creators like Anthropic by allowing the military to swap software providers without disrupting operations. Beyond software, the broader Defense & Aerospace sector is poised for growth as the U.S. defense budget potentially expands to $1.5 trillion, benefiting hardware-software integrators like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Boeing (BA). For those tracking government efficiency, PLTR is becoming the primary tool for auditing federal spending, making it a "must-own" asset for institutional transparency and anti-fraud initiatives.

WILL SOFI GET INTO THE S&P, ORCLE AND OPENAI SCRAP DATACENTERS, CHIP STOCKS FALL | MARKET CLOSE

Investors should capitalize on the current volatility in NVIDIA (NVDA), as the company’s aggressive $150 million deposit to secure data center sites reinforces its market dominance over AMD. Following its exclusion from the S&P 500, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) may face short-term selling pressure, offering a potential entry point for long-term investors targeting a realistic inclusion window in late 2025. The S&P 500 committee is signaling a strong preference for AI "picks and shovels," making new additions Vertiv (VRT), Lumentum (LITE), and Coherent (COHR) high-conviction plays in infrastructure. Caution is advised in the private credit sector, specifically with BlackRock (BLK) and Apollo (APO), as redemption limits and liquidity concerns signal underlying stress that could impact the broader financial market. With WTI Crude Oil spiking toward $91, investors should hedge against inflationary risks and potential interest rate freezes by looking toward defense giants like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Raytheon (RTX).

NON FARM PAYROLLS, MORE ANTHROPIC DRAMA, CAN WE END GREEN FOR THE WEEK | MARKET OPEN

Investors should prioritize Energy (XLE) and WTI Crude as primary hedges against Middle East supply disruptions, especially with oil prices testing the $90/barrel threshold. Monitor the S&P 500 closely at the 670 support level, as a break below this could signal a shift toward a sustained downtrend amid stagflation risks. In the AI sector, favor "picks and shovels" infrastructure plays like Marvell (MRVL), Broadcom (AVGO), and NVIDIA (NVDA) over software companies due to stronger earnings visibility. Palantir (PLTR) remains a high-conviction "defensive growth" play as it solidifies its role as the primary AI operating system for government and military contracts. Watch for a short-term liquidity pump in SoFi (SOFI) and Marvell (MRVL) following the Friday after-hours S&P 500 inclusion announcement.

NEW TRUMP RULES ON NVIDIA, ANTHROPIC ISSUES, COSTCO & MRVL EARNINGS, MACRO THURSDAY | MAR

NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a high-conviction "buy the dip" opportunity as internal sentiment suggests demand for AI compute is decoupled from traditional cycles despite short-term geopolitical headline risks. Microsoft (MSFT) is currently viewed as fundamentally oversold with a one-year price target of $550, supported by a massive surge in future revenue obligations for its Azure cloud business. The SaaS sector has likely bottomed, making the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) an attractive play for investors rotating capital into recovering names like Adobe (ADBE) and Salesforce (CRM). For those seeking a geopolitical hedge, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is seeing record retail inflows as oil prices rise toward the $92 resistance level. Finally, The Trade Desk (TTD) presents a strong bullish signal following a massive $148 million insider buy by its CEO, while Marvell Technology (MRVL) offers a high-growth alternative in the custom AI chip infrastructure space.

SOUTH KOREA GETS HIT AGAIN, BIG NEW NVIDIA BUYER, BITCOIN TRYING TO MAKE A MOVE | MARKET OPEN

Investors should monitor NVIDIA (NVDA) ahead of the upcoming GTC event, as institutional buying and the new Vera Rubin architecture roadmap serve as major bullish catalysts. Bitcoin (BTC) has reclaimed the $70,000 level, making equity proxies like Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) high-conviction plays for those seeking leveraged crypto exposure. The recent 20% crash in South Korea offers a de-risked contrarian entry point for memory chip leaders like Samsung and SK Hynix, which remain fundamental to the global AI build-out. Tesla (TSLA) is seeing a significant institutional re-rating with a $460 price target as analysts begin to value its Energy and Optimus divisions as standalone multi-billion dollar entities. Within the software sector, Palantir (PLTR) remains a top pick for its unique "defense premium," while Amazon (AMZN) stands to benefit from its 20% stake in the rapidly growing AI firm Anthropic.

Trump Won't Let OIL Rise, Memory Stocks GET HIT, Nvidia, Meta, Amazon Are REALLY CHEAP | Daily Recap

Investors should consider Nvidia (NVDA) a top priority, as current valuations near 19x earnings offer a rare entry point to "double down" on the semiconductor leader. While geopolitical tensions spiked oil prices, the U.S. administration's plan to secure the Strait of Hormuz makes betting on high energy costs via OXY or XOM a risky trade. The recent "cascading downfall" in the South Korean index (EWY) provides a strategic buying opportunity for long-term positions in memory leaders like Samsung and SK Hynix. In the fintech sector, SoFi (SOFI) remains a high-conviction play following a $1 million insider purchase by the CEO and a new MasterCard partnership. Finally, the resilience of Target (TGT) and Best Buy (BBY) suggests the U.S. consumer remains strong, making big-box retail a safer bet than housing-related stocks like Home Depot.

TRUMP EASES OIL, CROWDSTRIKE, GITLAB EARNINGS + TECHNICAL TUESDAY

Consider adding to NVIDIA (NVDA) positions on dips near $170, as the stock remains fundamentally cheap ahead of the GTC catalyst in mid-March. Palantir (PLTR) shows strong momentum as an AI defense leader, with a technical setup suggesting a potential bounce toward a target of $165–$170. For the energy sector, investors should take profits on Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Venture Global (VG) following recent spikes, looking to re-enter OXY if it retraces to the $50–$52 range. Bitcoin (BTC) remains a hold unless it reclaims $70,000, at which point it could quickly rally toward a $78,000 profit-taking zone. Long-term investors should view Microsoft (MSFT) as a high-quality "buy the dip" opportunity while it maintains a solid bottom between $390 and $400.

KOREA DROPS 10%, IRAN WAR INTENSIFIES, CHINA NVIDIA CHIP LIMITS | MARKET OPEN

NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a high-conviction "top pick" with a new $300 price target from Wedbush; investors should consider selling weekly covered calls to generate 1–2% income while the stock consolidates. South Korea (EWY) and Samsung offer a contrarian buying opportunity following a double-digit "momentum flush" caused by temporary energy disruptions. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) shows strong insider confidence after the CEO’s $1 million share purchase, though the stock remains range-bound between $16 and $20. For geopolitical protection, AeroVironment (AVAV) and Red Cat (RCAT) serve as effective hedges, while Palantir (PLTR) is a primary beneficiary of increased military AI demand. Avoid Gold and Silver as safe havens for now, as the U.S. Dollar (DXY) has emerged as the preferred asset during current market volatility.

Trump STRIKES Iran, Nvidia INVESTS In NEW Companies, Where Does The Stock Market Go | Daily Recap

Investors should view geopolitical "war dips" as buying opportunities, as historical data shows an average 24.9% return in the 12 months following major international conflicts. NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a high-conviction play with a price target of $250 this year, especially as it secures its supply chain through stakes in photonics companies Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR). While Energy (XLE) and defense stocks like Palantir (PLTR) saw immediate gains from Middle East tensions, the most profitable entry point for these hedges has likely passed for short-term traders. OpenAI is the preferred winner for massive government and defense contracts, further reinforcing the long-term demand for NVIDIA hardware. For those seeking "safe haven" assets during global instability, Bitcoin (BTC) and the U.S. Dollar (DXY) continue to serve as primary hedges against debt and conflict.

ASTS, BIG BEAR, ARCHER EARNINGS + CONVERSATION WITH FARZAD | MARKET CLOSE

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is a high-conviction growth play following a massive revenue beat, with management targeting a significant $1 billion in revenue by 2027. SoFi Technologies (SOFI) shows strong internal confidence after the CEO’s $1 million insider purchase, though investors should watch for a breakout above the $19.00 resistance level. For long-term portfolios, Tesla (TSLA) remains a "set it and forget it" play as it transitions into a physical AI and robotics leader, despite high capital expenditure risks. NVIDIA (NVDA) has been named a top pick by Morgan Stanley with a $260 price target, while Palantir (PLTR) continues to dominate the enterprise AI sector. In the speculative small-cap space, Ouster (OUST) is a momentum favorite following a "triple beat" on earnings, and Lemonade (LMND) offers high-upside potential as an AI-driven insurance disruptor.

TRUMP STRIKES IRAN, NVIDIA INVESTS IN 2 NEW COMPANIES, WHERE DOES MARCH GO | MARKET OPEN

NVIDIA (NVDA) is currently a "Top Pick" with a historically low valuation under 20x forward earnings, offering a strong entry point ahead of the GTC Conference in mid-March. Investors should also monitor Lumentum (LITE) and Coherent (COHR), as NVIDIA’s recent $4 billion investment in these firms signals a high-conviction play on photonics and optics. In the defense sector, Palantir (PLTR) has emerged as a "blue chip" beneficiary of geopolitical instability, acting as the technological backbone for military operations. While oil price spikes have pressured travel stocks, U.S. LNG providers like NextDecade (NEXT) are surging as global supply narratives shift. Finally, Bitcoin (BTC) is increasingly replacing gold as the preferred "crisis asset," making crypto proxies like Coinbase (COIN) and MicroStrategy (MSTR) actionable plays for those seeking high-beta resilience.

TRUMP STRIKES IRAN | MARKET FUTURES

Investors should consider immediate exposure to the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) or major producers like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) to capitalize on rising crude prices. While oil has surged 8% following the strike, be cautious of "chasing" the initial gap up, as these gains can fade quickly if the conflict stabilizes. Monitor the Strait of Hormuz closely, as any closure could realistically drive oil prices toward a target of $150 per barrel. For those with a medium-term outlook, holding energy stocks serves as a vital hedge against a potential global recession triggered by supply shocks. Focus on high-conviction entries during brief pullbacks rather than buying at the peak of the overnight news cycle.

AN UGLY END TO FEBRUARY FOR THE STOCK MARKET | MARKET CLOSE

NVIDIA (NVDA) presents a compelling valuation play following its recent sell-off to $177.22, with its forward PE now compressed to a historically cheap 16x-19x despite massive revenue growth. Investors seeking exposure to the potential SpaceX IPO in mid-2025 should consider Google (GOOGL) or Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ) as indirect vehicles to capture the company's projected $1.75 trillion valuation. The U.S. government’s ban on Anthropic creates a significant market vacuum for competitors like OpenAI, xAI, and Google (Gemini) to capture lucrative federal AI contracts. Within the infrastructure space, look for "secondary derivative" plays like Amkor Technology (AMKR) and Comfort Systems (FIX), which support the semiconductor and data center supply chains. For macro positioning, follow high-conviction trends by going long on Copper, Gold, and Japan, while remaining cautious on U.S. Bonds and the U.S. Dollar amid rising inflation data.

NETFLIX WALKS AWAY, NVIDIA DOWN, PPI DATA, BLOCK FIRES 40% OF STAFF | MARKET OPEN

The current dip in NVIDIA (NVDA) presents a high-conviction buying opportunity near the $179-$180 support level, as it remains the cheapest "Magnificent 7" stock at 15x forward earnings. OpenAI’s massive $110 billion funding round serves as a major bullish catalyst for the entire AI stack, guaranteeing long-term demand for partners like NVIDIA, Oracle (ORCL), and Broadcom (AVGO). Investors should favor Netflix (NFLX) following its exit from the Paramount merger, with analysts setting an outperform price target of $115 as the company captures a $3 billion breakup fee. Avoid "buying the dip" on Duolingo (DUOL), as declining user metrics and rising competition from free AI models like ChatGPT create significant long-term narrative risk. Given rising geopolitical tensions and hotter-than-expected inflation data, consider rotating into Gold and Silver to hedge against a "risk-off" environment and potential private credit contagion in the banking sector.

ROCKETLAB, SOUNDHOUND, COREWEAVE, DUOLINGO, MP, INTUIT, SMR EARNINGS + MACRO THURSDAY | MARKET CLOSE

The recent dip in NVIDIA (NVDA) presents a high-conviction buying opportunity as it trades at a valuation cheaper than Meta relative to its 80% growth; look for major support and entry levels near $175. Dell Technologies (DELL) remains a top-tier AI infrastructure play following a massive guidance raise to $142 billion and a $10 billion increase in share buybacks. Investors should favor Block (SQ) as it pivots toward extreme profitability through a 40% workforce reduction, signaling a broader "efficiency trade" in the fintech sector. Conversely, avoid Duolingo (DUOL) as declining monthly active users suggest its language-learning moat is being disrupted by free AI tools. For diversified exposure, consider "deep value" software names like Adobe (ADBE) or high-growth SaaS plays like Zeta Global (ZETA), which the analyst expects could double in valuation.

NVIDIA DESTROYS EARNINGS, THE JANE STREET LAWSUIT, WHERE DO MARKETS GO | MARKET OPEN

Consider rotating into quality software stocks like Salesforce (CRM) and Adobe (ADBE), as the narrative shifts to AI enhancing their platforms rather than replacing them. While NVIDIA's (NVDA) fundamentals are historic, its range-bound stock makes a covered call strategy attractive for generating income from its volatility. A major lawsuit may have removed significant selling pressure on Bitcoin (BTC), creating a bullish catalyst for the entire crypto market. Investors should monitor Bitcoin's price action around 10:00 AM ET to see if historical price dumps have ceased. Finally, strong earnings from Celsius (CELH) and Shake Shack (SHAK) show continued consumer strength in specific growth brands.