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Has Bitcoin Bottomed? Jordi Visser on AI, Inflation, and Moats

Has Bitcoin Bottomed? Jordi Visser on AI, Inflation, and Moats

51 minutes ago • 1 hr 59 min

BanklessPodcast

Investors should prioritize Bitcoin (BTC) as it transitions into a scarce commodity, particularly while inflation remains above 3.6% and old holder "selling overhang" is absorbed by ETF buyers. Shift focus from software to the "physical" side of AI by investing in hardware and infrastructure leaders like NVIDIA (NVDA), Micron (MU), and Qualcomm (QCOM). Silver offers significant upside as a critical component for green tech and semiconductors, serving as a necessary hedge against the "abundance" created by AI. For tactical growth, monitor the ETH/BTC ratio for a breakout signal to move into Ethereum (ETH) or Solana (SOL) for a high-conviction 6-month trade. Avoid traditional SaaS companies like Salesforce (CRM) or Adobe (ADBE), as AI-generated code threatens to destroy their historical competitive moats.

Ben Horowitz on Venture Capital and AI

Ben Horowitz on Venture Capital and AI

1 hour ago • 1 hr 10 min

a16z PodcastPodcast

Investors should capitalize on the "SaaS-pocalypse" by targeting software companies with deep real-world moats, such as Navan, which remain defensible through complex global supply chains rather than just code. Focus on the shift from software engineering to physical infrastructure by investing in Compute (GPUs) and Energy (Electricity), as these are now the primary bottlenecks for AI growth. Avoid companies that only offer a cheaper UI or "rebuilt" versions of existing software, as AI can easily replicate these models; instead, look for "silver bricks" or niche enterprise workflows that large AI labs ignore. For long-term growth, prioritize firms and startups that centralize control to rapidly enter emerging sectors like Crypto, Bio, and American Dynamism. Monitor regulatory developments closely, as domestic investment in U.S. compute infrastructure is increasingly tied to geopolitical competition with China.

Investors holding Bitcoin (BTC) in older legacy addresses or "cold storage" should prepare for a mandatory manual migration to post-quantum addresses within the next 5 to 10 years to avoid total loss of funds. Monitor the 10,000-qubit milestone in quantum computing, as reaching this threshold could allow attackers to compromise roughly 35% of the BTC supply, including Satoshi Nakamoto’s holdings. For retail investors, holding assets on major exchanges like Coinbase (COIN) may offer a "custodial advantage," as these platforms will likely manage the complex cryptographic upgrades on behalf of users. Be cautious of decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols and instead favor centralized stablecoins like USDC, which possess "freeze" capabilities that provide a safety net against quantum-driven theft. Watch for a "flight to safety" toward Ethereum (ETH) or privacy coins like Zcash (ZEC), which may implement post-quantum cryptography more efficiently than Bitcoin’s rigid network.

Investors should prioritize Alphabet (GOOGL) as a high-conviction play due to its TPU hardware advantage and 14% search revenue growth, which signals resilience against AI competition. Consider Broadcom (AVGO) as a strategic secondary play, as they are the primary partner helping Alphabet design the custom chips that reduce reliance on expensive third-party hardware. While Meta Platforms (META) offers an attractive valuation at 17x earnings, investors should remain cautious until the company provides a clearer monetization plan for its massive AI infrastructure spending. For a high-growth alternative in the "open web" space, Taboola (TBLA) is a compelling pick as its new AI "answer engine" is currently driving 3x more revenue per user than traditional ads. Be wary of traditional enterprise software (SaaS) stocks, as AI-driven automation poses a significant risk to companies that rely on "per-seat" licensing models.

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