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threadguy

by @notthreadguy

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Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.
Ask about threadguyAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

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MARKET OPEN: Memory stocks are back. ChatGPT bottomed the market. Robinhood chain & Crypto.

The semiconductor sector has reached a "capitulation bottom," making Micron (MU), Marvell (MRV), and Arm Holdings (ARM) high-conviction buys as they lead a sharp V-shaped recovery. Investors should look to Broadcom (AVGO) for long-term growth following its expanded $30 billion AI partnership with Apple (AAPL), while Oracle (ORCL) remains a top-tier pick for AI infrastructure. In the gaming sector, Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) is a strong play ahead of the GTA 6 launch, with the thesis centered on long-term revenue from in-game microtransactions. Within the crypto space, focus on Solana (SOL) and the new Robinhood (HOOD) chain for high-volume retail activity, while avoiding older, stagnant decentralized finance protocols. For consumer biotech exposure, Eli Lilly (LLY) is identified as a decade-long core holding, while Hims & Hers (HIMS) shows technical signs of an imminent breakout.

i just fumbled $100k on a robinhood memecoin
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Robinhood's New Chain, Fumbling $100k, and the Market Got Bored of War

Investors should monitor Robinhood (HOOD) as it leverages its 37 million users to bridge retail liquidity into its new Robinhood Chain, with potential long-term catalysts in tokenized real-world assets. In the semiconductor sector, Micron (MU) remains a high-conviction play as long as it holds the $54 support level, while Dell (DELL) and Broadcom (AVGO) continue to show strong AI-driven momentum. The space and defense sectors are currently outperforming broader tech, with Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) showing relative strength. For those following political trade signals, Voyager Technologies (VOIG) is a notable watch following recent congressional buying activity. While high-risk meme coins like Cash Cat on the Robinhood Chain offer massive volatility, they should be treated as speculative momentum plays driven by executive social media engagement rather than fundamentals.

trading stocks in 2026 is like storming the beach at normandy

Investors should exercise extreme caution in high-growth sectors like AI coins, where current valuations may be driven more by collective euphoria and "winning streak" psychology than by underlying fundamentals. To protect capital, monitor your physical responses to volatility; a racing heart or sudden sweating often signals that your body has recognized a high-risk pattern before your conscious mind has processed the danger. After a string of successful trades, proactively reduce your position sizes to counteract the biological urge to take excessive risks fueled by elevated testosterone and dopamine. Use a cross-asset correlation strategy by tracking price flows between the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), Bitcoin, and Robotics to identify when speculative bubbles are nearing a "blow-off top." When market sentiment reaches a "Master of the Universe" peak, treat this as a primary sell signal and re-evaluate high-conviction plays that may be blinded by irrational exuberance.

Converting Gamblers Into Traders, the Winner Effect, and the Coming Poker Resurgence

Monitor the upcoming Jersey Mike’s IPO as a high-growth structural play against traditional pizza chains like Domino’s (DPZ). For crypto exposure, utilize a weekly Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy into Solana (SOL) through year-end to capitalize on long-term growth while ignoring short-term volatility. Investors seeking a hybrid play should consider Robinhood (HOOD), which captures retail trading and crypto upside with less extreme downside risk than direct coin ownership. Exercise caution with AI hardware leaders like NVIDIA (NVDA) and AMD as rising competition from cheaper international models suggests a potential local top for semiconductors. Finally, look toward Biotech (IBB) and Apple (AAPL) for relative strength, as the latter benefits from avoiding the expensive AI infrastructure arms race.

i quit therapy to become a gambling addict

Serious traders should migrate from retail sportsbooks to decentralized platforms like Polymarket to avoid being banned for winning and to benefit from a fair, player-vs-player order book model. While DraftKings (DKNG) and FanDuel (FLUT) dominate the entertainment market, their business model relies on limiting "sharp" bettors, making them risky for professional-grade financial strategies. For maximum wealth accumulation, focus on Stock and Crypto Trading over professional gambling, as financial markets offer significantly higher scalability and lower friction for large capital deployment. Investors should view DKNG and FLUT primarily as entertainment companies rather than financial exchanges, as their user base prioritizes social experience over mathematical profitability. Avoid the assumption that sports bettors will migrate to crypto or stock platforms, as these audiences utilize different psychological "brain functions" and value the "zombie" experience of gambling apps.

Why Tokens With Equity Don't Work, Chinese Girlfriend Robots Are Here, and You're Not Getting AI

Buy Robinhood (HOOD) to capitalize on its bullish technical "fractal" and aggressive expansion into professional crypto services and global markets. Accumulate Palantir (PLTR) as a high-conviction play on government AI infrastructure and its strategic partnership with NVIDIA. Consider Meta (META) as it pivots to selling excess AI compute power, a move expected to generate high-margin revenue while pressuring smaller "Neocloud" competitors. In the crypto sector, favor Hyperliquid (HYPE) for its resilient price action and transparent structure that aligns token holders with platform growth. Avoid "Altcoins" where private equity holds the intellectual property, as these tokens often lack legal protections and suffer from massive venture capital sell pressure.

LIVE: Trump Is PUMPING Memory..!? META Is SAVED! Will The Bull Market Last FOREVER!?!?!

Robinhood (HOOD) is a high-conviction play as it bridges traditional finance and DeFi through its new wallet and partnerships with protocols like Aave (AAVE), Uniswap (UNI), and Chainlink (LINK). Investors should watch for the expansion of "equity perps" (tokenized stocks), which represents a massive, undervalued market opportunity for HOOD and decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid (HYPE). In the semiconductor space, exercise caution with Micron (MU) due to rising competition in memory, while Meta (META) is emerging as a strong buy as it pivots toward selling excess AI compute. For exposure to the rapidly growing humanoid robotics sector, UB Tech (9880.HK) is a primary mover following massive initial orders for its high-end companion robots. Be mindful that the rise of 0DTE options is fueling extreme daily volatility, making it essential to manage risk during periods of "irrational exuberance."

The Rise of Heightmaxxing, No Crying in the Casino, and Why Leopold Runs the Market

The highest conviction trade is Sharon AI (SHAOS), with a recommended entry near $89 and a price target of $125, driven by the "Leopold effect" and significant capital access. Investors should maintain a strict stop-loss in the low $70s to manage risks associated with the company’s controversial management history. Be cautious with AI infrastructure stocks and NVIDIA, as a shift toward "nerfed" AI models could decouple the historical link between massive capital expenditure and stock performance. Avoid Circle (USDC) and related stablecoin plays, as the emergence of Open USD backed by Visa and BlackRock threatens to erode its market moat and Coinbase partnership. In the broader market, IBM remains a hold for its government-backed quantum initiatives, while Hims & Hers (HIMS) is a preferred pick in the consumer biotech sector.

LIVE: Saylor Is In TROUBLE.. Leopold Buying MICROCAPS!? Stablecoins Are Back.. Trenches Are INSANE!!

Investors should consider a high-conviction position in Sharon AI (SHAWS) following a massive capital infusion from researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, with a suggested entry near $89, a stop-loss at $73, and a price target of $125. The AI Infrastructure trade remains a dominant theme, highlighted by Bloom Energy (BE) and its $25 billion partnership with Brookfield to power data centers. In the crypto sector, Hyperliquid (HYPE) is showing significant relative strength and decoupling from Bitcoin's volatility, making it a preferred play for decentralized finance exposure. Conversely, a bearish outlook is advised for Circle (USDC) as major institutions like Visa and Stripe launch competing stablecoins, potentially ending Circle's market dominance. Finally, monitor the "compute-to-intelligence" narrative closely, as any continued "nerfing" or stagnation in Anthropic or OpenAI benchmarks could signal a cooling period for massive AI capital expenditures.

The Memory Supercycle, Ansem and Solana, and the Saylor Problem

Micron Technology (MU) is a high-conviction play on the "Memory Supercycle," as high-bandwidth memory becomes the primary bottleneck for AI performance; investors should look for entry points on price dips. Meta Platforms (META) offers unique optionality as a "compute bank," with the potential to pivot into a B2B AI cloud provider by renting its massive hardware clusters to third parties. In the crypto sector, Solana (SOL) shows strong technical momentum with a bullish outlook if it can sustain price levels above the $170-$175 range. MicroStrategy (MSTR) management is prioritizing its preferred stock (STRC) by increasing dividends to 12% and initiating a $1 billion buyback, though investors should monitor the "1.0 MNAV" level for potential Bitcoin selling pressure. Avoid speculative AI infrastructure plays like Sharon AI (SHZ), which faces significant red flags regarding its contracts and past claims of NVIDIA ownership.

LIVE: Memory Is CRASHING... Ansem Saved Memecoins & Saylor Saved Bitcoin!?! MSTR?! Are We BACK!???!?

Monitor the $60,000 level for Bitcoin (BTC) as a critical "line in the sand" for short-term market direction.

Consider Micron (MU) as a high-conviction play in the AI sector, as memory is projected to grow from 15% to 40% of hyperscaler capital expenditure.

Avoid shorting MicroStrategy (MSTR) in the immediate term due to a $1 billion buyback program and a dividend increase to 12%, though be wary of potential BTC selling pressure to fund these reserves.

Watch for a potential Pump.fun airdrop announcement to drive a surge in Solana (SOL) demand and on-chain activity.

Anticipate significant upward momentum for SpaceX and Rocket Lab (RKLB) leading up to July 7th, when SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 is expected to trigger $4 billion in passive buying.

Government Controlled AI, the BTC Slow Bleed and Europe's AC Crisis

Investors should consider a long position in Biotech (IBB), which is currently identified as a high-conviction "breakout buy" with strong upward momentum. Despite poor fundamentals, AMC Entertainment (AMC) presents a speculative "narrative trade" opportunity ahead of a record-breaking 2026 movie slate featuring major Marvel and Disney franchises. For those seeking exposure to the AI sector, IBM (IBM) remains a strong play for its quantum computing potential, while OpenAI exposure via SoftBank (SFTBY) may face volatility due to delayed IPO timelines and government regulation. Avoid entering Bitcoin (BTC) at current levels as it risks a "slow bleed" toward the $60,000 support level with no clear catalyst for a breakout. Finally, look for investment opportunities in European HVAC manufacturers and utilities to capitalize on the massive infrastructure gap in air conditioning adoption across the EU and UK.

LIVE: Burry Is SHORT EVERYTHING!!!! OpenAI's NEW MODELS Are CRAZY... AI Trade Is BACK!?

Investors should prioritize Eli Lilly (LLY) as a high-conviction play on the "obesity trade," specifically watching for catalysts surrounding the next-generation weight loss drug Retatrutide. For exposure to the "In Real Life" entertainment narrative, AMC Entertainment (AMC) is a target for 2026 due to a record-breaking movie slate, while Carrier Global (CARR) offers a unique momentum trade on the rising demand for air conditioning in Europe. In the AI sector, Anthropic is the preferred private target over OpenAI due to a likely 2027 IPO delay, while hardware providers like Intel (INTC) and Micron (MU) are positioned to benefit from increased government regulation. The Biotech ETF (IBB) is currently showing a technical breakout, and Butterfly Network (BFLY) provides a niche entry into AI-driven medical imaging hardware. Within crypto, avoid "catching the falling knife" on Bitcoin (BTC) unless it hits the $48k-$50k range, and consider rotating out of MicroStrategy (MSTR) as its price premium over its holdings is expected to collapse.

Apple Just Raised Prices, China Is Dropshipping Claude and the IRL Trade

Investors should consider Costco (COST) as a resilient core holding due to its high-income customer growth and "sticky" membership model, though its high 45x Forward P/E suggests waiting for a pullback. In the semiconductor space, Micron (MU) and SK Hynix remain the primary high-conviction plays as AI hardware demand drives memory chip prices to record levels. Exercise extreme caution with MicroStrategy (MSTR), as the company faces a potential liquidity crunch and high debt-servicing costs that could lead to a sharp correction relative to Bitcoin. For long-term growth, Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) is a strong play on the digital economy, with GTA 6 expected to transition the franchise into a high-margin, subscription-based revenue powerhouse. Finally, look for emerging opportunities in "In Real Life" (IRL) sectors like physical fitness and niche hobby communities as consumers pivot away from AI-driven digital content.

The MicroStrategy Endgame... - Rekt Mando

Monitor Bitcoin (BTC) closely as it tests the $59,000 support level; a break below this could trigger a decline toward the $35,000–$40,000 range. Avoid or short MicroStrategy (MSTR) due to a looming cash flow crisis and insolvency risks if Bitcoin fails to sustain its price. Consider Ethereum (ETH) as a strategic short opportunity, targeting a potential exit if the price rallies 10% to $1,800. For long-term growth, accumulate Eli Lilly (LLY) as a leader in AI-driven biopharma and buy dips in South Korean Equities (KOSPI) to capitalize on structural shareholder reforms. Maintain exposure to Gold as a hedge against currency debasement, with expectations for the asset to reach new all-time highs by year-end.