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threadguy

by @notthreadguy

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Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.
Ask about threadguyAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

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🔴THE CHRIS CAMILLO INTERVIEW🔴

Accumulate Amazon (AMZN) near the $197 level to capitalize on the "AI efficiency wave," as institutional skepticism over high capital expenditure creates a contrarian entry point. For a short-term social arbitrage play, monitor Swatch Group (SWGAY) for a potential price "pop" this coming Monday following global weekend product launches, but plan to exit quickly once the media hype is priced in. In the crypto sector, maintain a bullish stance on Zcash (ZEC) with a strategy to add to spot positions if it dips to the $480 - $500 range, holding for a move toward all-time highs. Investors should look toward Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Hims & Hers (HIMS) to benefit from the unstoppable "freight train" of the GLP-1 and peptide weight-loss trend. Finally, watch Copper and Silver for breakout opportunities, as Copper serves as a critical bottleneck play for the ongoing AI infrastructure expansion.

The Upcoming Stock IPOs Are Insane... [Stream Recap]

Investors should avoid Swatch Group (UHR) despite the hype surrounding its collaboration with Audemars Piguet, as collapsing net income and poor fundamentals suggest the recent 20% pump is a "trap." In the crypto sector, Bitcoin (BTC) has lost its momentum, making it prudent to stay in cash until the price clearly breaks toward $90,000 or retraces to $65,000. Zcash (ZEC) remains a high-conviction hold for massive gains, though investors should exit the position immediately if it breaks below the $500 "line in the sand." The upcoming Cerebras Systems IPO is expected to trigger AI sector mania, potentially creating volatility and trading opportunities in Nvidia (NVDA), AMD, and Micron (MU). Finally, avoid purchasing Anthropic shares through secondary market SPVs, as the company has warned these unauthorized "handshake" deals may be void and leave investors with nothing on IPO day.

LIVE: Stocks Are DUMPING! The Crypto Move Was FAKE!?!?! - HUGE IPO on Thursday.. BIG DAY!

The upcoming Cerebras Systems IPO is a high-conviction event that could suck liquidity from NVIDIA and Micron, making it a critical "mania" phase to watch this Thursday. For crypto investors, Near Protocol (NEAR) and VVV are highlighted as the strongest momentum plays with "clean charts" that are currently outperforming a stagnant broader market. Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a neutral "pick a direction" zone, where a failure to hold key levels alongside semiconductor stocks could trigger a retracement to $65,000. Long-term commodity bulls should look toward Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and BHP Group (BHP) to capitalize on a projected 70% supply shortage in copper driven by AI data center demand. Conversely, avoid Swatch Group (UHR) as a long-term investment due to plummeting net income, though it remains a candidate for short-term "social arb" trades around luxury collaboration teasers.

Why He Sold His CryptoPunk For ZCash.. - David Hoffman

Investors should consider rotating capital out of Ethereum (ETH) and NFTs into Zcash (ZEC), which is gaining high-conviction momentum as a "compliant" privacy alternative to Bitcoin. Zcash is positioned for an institutional re-rating because it lacks the fragile dependencies of the DeFi sector and is increasingly favored by asset managers for its exchange liquidity. Monitor MicroStrategy (MSTR) as it evolves from a simple Bitcoin proxy into a "neobank" that utilizes BTC collateral to generate yields through its "Stretch" product. Exercise extreme caution with DeFi tokens due to systemic contagion risks, instead favoring "zero-dependency" assets or next-generation infrastructure like Morpho and Hyperliquid. Look for a "Top 100" re-rating where capital shifts from stagnant legacy coins into high-substance assets and AI-integrated platforms like Venice on the Base network.

Stocks Are Doing Something INSANE Right Now... [Stream Recap]

The technical setup for Solana (SOL) makes it the most attractive altcoin chart, with a short-term price target of $120 - $130. In the semiconductor sector, Nvidia (NVDA) is positioned for an all-time high breakout trade, while Micron (MU) remains a high-conviction momentum play for retail investors. Zcash (ZEC) has transitioned into a trending "digital metal" with strong developer backing, though investors must monitor the $487 level as critical support to maintain the bullish thesis. While Bitcoin (BTC) may face short-term volatility, its high-timeframe structure remains strong and closely correlated with the QQQ, making the Nasdaq a key leading indicator for crypto entries. Exercise caution with Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) following a double earnings miss, and avoid the Roaring Kitty (GME) meme coin due to high suspicions of social media hacking.

LIVE: Cerebras IPO! HIMS Earnings Reveal!!! - David Hoffman Interview TODAY...

Investors should closely watch the Cerebras (CRBS) IPO this Thursday, as the "Nvidia challenger" with a $20 billion OpenAI contract faces massive demand despite high customer concentration risks. In the crypto sector, Zcash (ZEC) is emerging as a high-conviction "encrypted Bitcoin" play, gaining institutional favor over Monero due to its potential for future ETF inclusion. Solana (SOL) currently displays one of the strongest technical setups in the digital asset market, with analysts targeting a breakout toward the $120–$130 range. Within semiconductors, Micron (MU) remains a top pick due to the infinite memory demands of AI, though investors should consider taking partial profits on parabolic moves following recent warnings of a "dot-com" style bubble. For healthcare traders, Hims & Hers (HIMS) has retraced to a key support level near $26, offering a potential entry point for those betting on a rebound after its recent earnings miss.

The Stock Market Just Did Something Insane... [Stream Recap]

Investors should consider Micron Technology (MU) as a high-conviction play on AI infrastructure, with market leaders treating it as a fundamental beneficiary of memory hardware demand. In the healthcare sector, Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) presents a high-reward opportunity ahead of earnings due to massive consumer demand and a potential short squeeze, though investors must weigh regulatory risks regarding peptides. For those seeking a contrarian crypto recovery, Zcash (ZEC) is emerging as a high-upside bet with community price targets reaching $1,000 as it leads a potential shift away from Bitcoin (BTC) dominance. Intel (INTC) and Rocket Lab (RKLB) have demonstrated powerful momentum following major partnerships and sector growth, signaling a shift toward rewarding established hardware and space-defense turnarounds. While Bitcoin (BTC) remains a core long-term holding with a $120,000 target, current capital is rotating into high-volatility assets like Copper and Silver to capture immediate price action.

LIVE: Bitcoin’s Greatest Risk.. TON is Crazy?! - Tracking Hyperliquid’s Best Traders

Investors should prioritize Micron Technology (MU) as a top-tier AI infrastructure play, with analysts targeting a path toward a $1 trillion market cap as memory chip demand outpaces supply for the next year. In the semiconductor space, Intel (INTC) serves as a high-momentum "catch-up" trade following its Apple partnership, while Rocket Lab (RKLB) offers aggressive growth potential for those seeking high volatility in the space sector. Within the crypto market, Zcash (ZEC) is a high-conviction privacy play with psychological price targets between $600 and $750, though its extreme volatility requires careful position sizing. For those betting on social media integration, TON remains a long-term hold due to its massive Telegram user base, despite recent uninspiring price action. Overall, capital is currently shifting toward "upstream" AI hardware like MU and AMD, which are providing better risk-adjusted returns than traditional crypto assets.

How Crypto Came Back From The Dead... [Stream Recap]
No insights available yet
LIVE: Hantavirus is COMING..? - the Market is SCARED, Sam Altman is COOKED + Coinbase Earnings

The highest conviction trade is currently Zcash (ZEC), which is positioned as a "generational" play to hedge against future quantum computing threats to Bitcoin. Investors should consider TON as a top-tier asset for this cycle, as its deep integration with Telegram makes it one of the few coins likely to outperform in a consolidated market. While NVIDIA (NVDA) and the broader AI sector remain in a powerful "1999-style" ramp, be prepared for extreme volatility as the trade expands into energy and metals. Avoid diversifying into low-quality "altcoins" and instead focus capital on high-revenue "real businesses" like the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid. For traditional equity exposure, Coinbase (COIN) remains the dominant infrastructure play, though it is currently a better long-term hold than a short-term trade due to declining market volumes.

Why Bitcoin Is One Headline Away From Going Parabolic - Robert Leshner

Accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) during this period of market apathy, as a shift toward a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve or sovereign adoption could trigger an overnight move into a parabolic "risk-on" phase. Monitor the Real World Asset (RWA) sector, specifically protocols like Superstate, as the tokenization of traditional stocks and bonds is expected to bring trillions of dollars of institutional capital on-chain. Watch for the passage of the FIT21 or Genius Act, which would provide the regulatory "green light" for major brokerages like Fidelity and Schwab to integrate blockchain assets. While DeFi sentiment is currently low, look for long-term opportunities in transparent protocols like Aave and Compound as they evolve to include AI-audited security and better risk management. For active traders, decentralized derivative platforms like Hyperliquid offer high-conviction growth due to the massive demand for 24/7 perpetual futures trading.

Stocks & Crypto Are About To Change Forever... [Stream Recap]

The S&P 500 (SPY) has reached new all-time highs, signaling a strong bullish trend that investors should ride until clear technical breakdowns occur. Focus on high-conviction AI and semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA (NVDA), which continue to lead the market's momentum. Consider increasing exposure to Small-Cap stocks (IWM) as they begin to catch up to large-cap performance in a broadening market rally. Maintain a trailing stop-loss on core positions to protect gains while the index targets the next psychological resistance levels. Diversify into Big Tech leaders that show strong earnings growth to balance risk during this period of record valuation.

LIVE: Zcash is BACK! Stocks & Crypto are COOKING?! Korean Stocks TAKEOVER & Robert Leshner Interview

The highest conviction trade is Zcash (ZEC), which is positioned as a "private Bitcoin" play with a target of previous all-time highs as liquidity rotates from stocks into high-potential crypto assets. In the equity markets, focus on the AI memory sector by looking at undervalued South Korean giants like Samsung and SK Hynix, which trade at significantly lower valuations than US peers like NVIDIA. For decentralized finance exposure, Hyperliquid (HYPE) is a top pick due to its 100% revenue buyback model and its ability to trade traditional assets 24/7. While Bitcoin (BTC) remains a core hold above $81,000, investors should ignore minor selling news from MicroStrategy and watch for sovereign "Strategic Reserve" announcements as the next major catalyst. Avoid "zombie" projects in the crypto Top 100 like Cardano (ADA) or Litecoin (LTC), as capital is expected to flow violently toward high-utility assets like Toncoin (TON) and HYPE.

a16z's $2.2B Crypto Fund, AI Psychosis & FIDI to SoHo - Guy Wuollet

Institutional confidence remains high as a16z recently launched a $2.2 billion crypto fund, signaling a strategic shift toward real-world financial integration and "On-Chain Wall Street." Investors should focus on Real World Assets (RWAs) and decentralized credit markets, specifically through platforms like Hyperliquid which offer high-quality asset perpetuals. Ethena (ENA) presents a high-conviction opportunity for those seeking yield through sophisticated "cash and carry" trades that bridge traditional finance and crypto. The intersection of AI and blockchain is a critical infrastructure play; look for decentralized compute marketplaces that solve silicon and energy bottlenecks to build long-term network moats. Finally, PolyMarket and similar prediction markets are emerging as generational platforms for retail investors to trade on geopolitical events and global outcomes.

The Crypto Bull Market Just Started..? [Stream Recap]

Bitcoin (BTC) remains a high-conviction "buy and hold" asset as it enters a new bull cycle, with a long-term price target of $120,000. For those seeking high-growth semiconductor exposure, Micron (MU) is emerging as a top-tier AI play with potential to mirror the success of Nvidia (NVDA). Investors should watch for a potential GameStop (GME) acquisition of eBay (EBAY) at $125 per share, a play centered on aggressive cost-cutting and operational efficiency. In the crypto space, Zcash (ZEC) is showing significant momentum, though traders should lock in profits by selling into strength during price spikes. While Ethereum and Solana currently lack volume, institutional "dry powder" from firms like a16z suggests a long-term floor for the industry, specifically within stablecoins and decentralized AI.

LIVE: Bitcoin’s Over $81K! Crypto is HOT..?! Stocks are RIPPING & War is still going??

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently the strongest chart in crypto, with analysts targeting a move to $87,000 provided it maintains a "volume pop" above $82,000.

In the semiconductor space, Micron (MU) is identified as a high-conviction "obvious play" with potential to mirror NVIDIA’s growth, while Intel (INTC) shows strong momentum as the AI cycle rotates into laggards.

For those seeking a privacy-focused hedge against regulatory overreach, Zcash (ZEC) is a top-tier pick backed by institutional accumulation from Multicoin Capital.

Investors should watch Hyperliquid (HYPE) for a breakout above $50, as the platform gains traction by offering global access to tokenized US stocks.

Ryan Cohen’s proposed $125 per share bid for eBay (EBAY) presents a unique turnaround play, aiming to leverage GameStop (GME) retail locations for high-value item authentication and massive cost-cutting.

Explaining Korean Stocks and the AI Memory Trade - Rekt Mando

Investors should consider the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) to capitalize on corporate governance reforms and a structural boom in AI memory. For direct exposure to the global AI chip supply chain, SK Hynix (000660.KS) and Samsung (005930.KS) are high-conviction plays with order backlogs extending toward 2028. Google (GOOGL) remains a top-tier macro long, offering a more attractive valuation than other tech giants at a forward P/E of roughly 18–20. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) is a recommended long-term play as the sector breaks out of a multi-decade base due to inelastic supply. For active traders, the "trend surfing" strategy suggests buying assets at All-Time Highs with a strict stop-loss just below the breakout level to capture parabolic moves.

The Stock Market Doesn't Care About WW3... [Stream Recap]

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a high-conviction breakout phase above $80,000, decoupling from traditional assets and acting as a primary growth leader. For aggressive crypto exposure, Zcash (ZEC) is a top technical play with active accumulation occurring between $350 and $405, while Hyperliquid (HYPE) remains a core infrastructure bet near the $41 level. In the equity market, South Korean giants Samsung, SK Hynix, and SK Square offer a "high IQ" macro trade to capture the AI memory boom and local corporate governance reforms. Investors should look to long Microsoft (MSFT) or the IGV software ETF following Palantir’s (PLTR) strong earnings beat and positive sector momentum. Conversely, GameStop (GME) presents a short-term risk or shorting opportunity due to the massive shareholder dilution required for its proposed $55 billion acquisition of eBay.

LIVE: The War is BACK.. Oil at $115!! Bitcoin $80K!? - Korean Stocks are CRAZY! + Mando Interview

Accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) as it acts as a superior risk hedge to gold, with liquidity trends suggesting a near-term price target of $97,000. Consider a high-conviction position in Zcash (ZEC) between $350 and $405, as it is positioned to capture the "private digital gold" market with significant upside relative to its $8 billion

Threadguy Takes An IQ Test...

Threadguy Takes An IQ Test...

144 days ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube12 min 22 sec

Investors should look for a long entry point in GameStop (GME), as current price action suggests the upward move is not yet exhausted. To capitalize on high-risk "memetic momentum" plays like GME, ensure you have active liquidity and leverage available on traditional brokerages like Robinhood to avoid the delays of moving funds from crypto wallets. While Dogecoin (DOGE) remains a core speculative hold in the memecoin sector, be prepared for high volatility and potential underperformance relative to equities. For broader market exposure, monitor eBay (EBAY) for momentum, though access may be limited for those trading exclusively on decentralized platforms like Hyperliquid. To improve your investment ROI, utilize AI tools like Claude or ChatGPT to synthesize market signals and maintain a "barbell" of liquidity across both on-chain and traditional brokerage accounts.