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threadguy

by @notthreadguy

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Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.
Ask about threadguyAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

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851 posts
Trump "Ended" World War 3 Again...? [Stream Recap]

The upcoming SpaceX IPO is the highest conviction opportunity, with a recommended strategy of dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into the stock to treat it as a generational holding. Investors should be cautious with other space stocks like Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), as SpaceX may drain liquidity from these smaller competitors. In the semiconductor sector, Micron (MU), Arm Holdings (ARM), and Marvell (MRVL) are showing strong momentum and remain the primary way to play the ongoing AI recovery. For those looking at "In Real Life" consumer trends, AMC Entertainment (AMC) and StubHub are top picks to benefit from the resurgence in live events and cinema. Finally, while Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of stabilizing around $63,463, remain cautious of geopolitical volatility and consider fading the recent "doom" moves in Crude Oil.

What I Learned From The Greatest Stock Traders EVER.. - Jack Schwager

Investors should prioritize AI stocks and Semiconductors as the primary momentum leaders, as capital is currently rotating out of stagnant crypto markets into these high-growth tech sectors. To hedge against ongoing geopolitical instability and supply shocks, maintain exposure to Oil and Commodities, which remain the most effective vehicles for trading global conflict. Watch for "Bear Trap" signals—where an asset hits a new low but immediately rallies—as a high-conviction indicator to enter a position after "weak hands" have been cleared out. When evaluating your portfolio, ignore the Sharpe Ratio and instead use the Gain-to-Pain Ratio (total monthly returns divided by the sum of monthly losses) to ensure your strategy provides enough profit to justify the emotional stress of drawdowns. Above all, implement strict risk controls to ensure no single trade can "take you out," focusing on making significantly more on your winners than you lose on your losers.

LIVE: SpaceX IPO TMRW!!! War Is OVER & Stocks Are BACK! Oil is CRASHING! - Jack D. Schwager 5PM EST

Prepare for the SpaceX IPO on Friday, which is expected to debut at a $1.75 trillion valuation and may cause a "liquidity vamp" that pulls capital away from other speculative assets. Monitor "space betas" like Rocket Lab (RKLB) and ASTS for high volatility, as investors may rotate funds out of these names to participate in the SpaceX raise. In the technology sector, focus on recovering semiconductor leaders like Micron (MU) and ARM, but exercise caution with Google (GOOGL) due to recent heavy equity dilution. Avoid entering new long positions in Oil (WTI/Brent) as the removal of the "war premium" and potential geopolitical settlements drive prices lower. For long-term growth, consider the "IRL" entertainment theme through stocks like Ferrari (RACE) and AMC, which are benefiting from a multi-year renaissance in physical consumer experiences.

Is SpaceX's IPO the TOP of the Stock Market? [Stream Recap]

Prepare for the upcoming SpaceX IPO, which is expected to offer an unusually high 30% allocation to retail investors, though be mindful that this massive "liquidity event" could trigger sell-offs in other speculative assets like crypto. Exercise caution with Bitcoin (BTC) and Solana (SOL) as both show technical weakness and lack immediate catalysts, with BTC likely heading lower than its current $61.7k level. The semiconductor sector is showing signs of exhaustion, so consider shifting focus from overextended names like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) toward Copper as a strategic play on AI infrastructure bottlenecks. Look for opportunities in "real-life experience" stocks by taking positions in AMC, StubHub, or Live Nation (LYV) to capitalize on record-breaking ticket demand and upcoming global sporting events. Monitor the threat to legacy healthcare and beverage brands as influencer-led companies like Longevity Rx and Accelerator disrupt traditional distribution models.

How To Trade The SpaceX IPO - GoodAlexander

Prepare for the SpaceX (SPACE) IPO by rotating capital out of speculative "Space Beta" stocks like Astro or satellite ETFs, as the massive $25 billion retail allocation is expected to drain liquidity from smaller competitors. Investors should monitor the "space-based data center" narrative closely, as Elon Musk’s push into AI compute could drive SpaceX to defy traditional valuations much like Tesla did. Consider a contrarian long position in OpenAI once accessible, as its massive scale of 900 million users and successful $100 million advertising pilot position it as a potential "money printing machine" despite high burn rates. Be cautious with Anthropic and Palantir (PLTR), as the former faces high valuation risks and the latter may see its "Trump trade" momentum fade while facing new competition from advanced AI models. Finally, look for shorting opportunities in traditional telecom providers like T-Mobile (TMUS) and Verizon (VZ), which are vulnerable to disruption from satellite-based internet and currently trade at valuations unsupported by their low growth.

Claude's New AI Dropped And It's Suspicious... [Stream Recap]

Prepare for the SpaceX IPO by monitoring its potential $2.2 trillion valuation, as aggressive revenue projections through 2027 position it as a cornerstone of the space economy. In the robotics sector, gain exposure to the critical hardware bottleneck by investing in Moog Inc (MOG.A), Parker Hannifin (PH), and Emerson Electric (EMR) for their dominance in precision motors and actuators. For a high-growth small-cap play in AI surveillance, look at Latronics (LTNX), which provides the hardware for the rapidly expanding law enforcement tech firm Flock Safety. Within the crypto space, Hyperliquid (HYPE) offers a unique cash-flow opportunity due to its massive $2 billion buyback mechanism fueled by exchange fees. Finally, consider Hims & Hers (HIMS) as a bullish play on the expanding GLP-1 weight loss and peptide market.

LIVE: Stocks Just NUKED! Mythos (WORLD ENDING AI) Just Launched.. SpaceX IPO Is ALMOST HERE!

Monitor the potential SpaceX IPO launch this week, as a failure to "pop" on day one despite its $1.8 trillion valuation could signal a broader market top.

Accumulate Hyperliquid (HYPE) to capitalize on its aggressive deflationary model, which uses protocol revenue for massive buybacks and token burns.

Gain exposure to the $60 trillion robotics labor market by investing in public hardware proxies like Emerson Electric (EMR), Regal Rexnord (RRX), and Moog Inc (MOG.A).

Exercise caution with Bitcoin (BTC) and wait for a potential "washout" toward the $40k–$50k range before entering new positions, as liquidity currently favors AI infrastructure over crypto.

Consider speculative "IRL" recovery plays like StubHub or AMC to profit from record-breaking demand for live sports and cinema.

Why Apple's New AI is USELESS... [Stream Recap]

Accumulate NVIDIA (NVDA) on recent dips as it transitions into a global infrastructure play, specifically watching the "Jetson Thor" platform for a breakthrough in the robotics sector. Capitalize on the "IRL Events" mega-trend by holding "trophy assets" like Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS), Live Nation (LYV), and Formula One (FWONK) as physical presence becomes the ultimate status symbol. Prepare for a massive liquidity event and a new market era by positioning for upcoming high-valuation IPOs from OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX. In the semiconductor space, Marvell Technology (MRVL) remains a high-conviction play due to guaranteed passive fund inflows following its inclusion in the S&P 500. While the crypto market remains volatile, look for tactical entries in Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Jito (JTO), which are showing technical resilience compared to Bitcoin and Solana.

LIVE: Jensen Is PUMPING All Over!!! Trump Wants To END The War!? Trading NBA Finals, World Cup, F1..

Buy the dip on NVIDIA (NVDA) as CEO Jensen Huang signals that the AI infrastructure build-out is only in its first year of a multi-year cycle. Accumulate Marvell Technology (MRVL) to capitalize on massive passive investment flows following its recent inclusion in the S&P 500. Invest in "trophy asset" companies like Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) and Live Nation (LYV) to hedge against digital AI commoditization through scarce, real-world experiences. Avoid new directional bets on Bitcoin (BTC) or MicroStrategy (MSTR) in the immediate short term until market sentiment regarding Michael Saylor’s recent activity stabilizes. Monitor the Robo Strategy (BOT) and Copper as high-conviction plays to capture the physical robotics and hardware bottlenecks essential for AI scaling.

What Actually Broke In ZCash.. - Tulip King

Investors should pivot toward revenue-generating protocols in the $10M to $50M market cap range, prioritizing projects that utilize on-chain buybacks to support token value. Hyperliquid (HYPE) is currently a high-conviction "crypto index" play, offering superior exposure to perpetual swap volumes and the broader DeFi revenue model compared to Bitcoin. While Bitcoin (BTC) remains the premier long-term store of value with a $1 million+ price target, traders are actively trimming positions to capture higher volatility in these emerging ecosystems. Avoid ZCash (ZEC) and similar default privacy coins due to recent "double-spend" exploits and centralization risks that undermine their status as sovereign money. Instead, look for "privacy-as-a-feature" protocols like Railgun that offer optional privacy tools without the technical and regulatory hurdles of a private base layer.

Why Robotics Is The Next Trillion Dollar Industry - Andrew Kang

Investors should prioritize exposure to Figure AI, a leader in humanoid robotics that has transitioned from experimental demos to consistent, real-world task execution. For those without access to private markets, RoboStrategy serves as a public proxy, utilizing a MicroStrategy-style model to acquire high-growth private robotics assets at a discount. Tesla (TSLA) remains a core play as its Optimus program is expected to become a larger valuation driver than its automotive business, though investors should watch for competition from dedicated startups. To capitalize on the robotics supply chain, focus on manufacturers of actuators and onboard GPUs, which represent up to 50% of a robot's material costs. Avoid "software-only" AI firms and instead favor companies with a "hardware moat" and established manufacturing capabilities, as physical data and execution are the primary competitive advantages.

We Are In Crypto's Darkest Times... [Stream Recap]

Avoid attempting to "bottom fish" or buy the current Bitcoin (BTC) dip immediately, as short-term sentiment remains bearish and the market lacks a clear reversal signal. Maintain a long-term perspective on BTC as a core "worldview" asset, but wait for more stable price action before adding to positions. Focus on high-conviction AI infrastructure plays like NVIDIA (NVDA), which continue to benefit from massive capital expenditure cycles. Consider diversifying into Gold or Silver as a hedge against potential currency debasement and macroeconomic volatility. Prioritize capital preservation during this "miserable" market phase to ensure you have liquidity when high-probability entry points finally emerge.

LIVE: Bitcoin To ZERO!!! Quantum IPO Is CRAZY! Can Trump Save Us?! SpaceX! AAAAAAA

Avoid new entries in Bitcoin (BTC) for now, as the current price action lacks momentum and suggests a deeper "cleanse" may be necessary before a sustainable bottom is formed. Immediately exit or avoid Zcash (ZEC) following a major security vulnerability that allows for potential unlimited counterfeiting, as the technical and fundamental damage is likely permanent. Focus on Hyperliquid (HYPE) as a high-conviction spot position over a 3-to-12-month horizon, as it currently shows the strongest resilience and product-market fit in the crypto space. Maintain long-term exposure to the AI semiconductor mega-trend through NVIDIA (NVDA) and Marvell Technology (MRVL), treating recent pullbacks in peers like Broadcom (AVGO) as noise rather than a change in thesis. Consider a position in the iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) or Eli Lilly (LLY) to capture the emerging "AI-driven drug discovery" narrative as the sector breaks out of a multi-year consolidation.

This Might Be The END Of Bitcoin... [Stream Recap]

Investors should consider Meta Platforms (META) as a top-tier AI play, following endorsements from NVIDIA’s CEO regarding their superior integration of generative AI into advertising and recommendation systems. For those seeking high-growth exposure, the Quantinuum IPO is heavily oversubscribed at $60 per share, though caution is advised as pre-IPO futures on Hyperliquid suggest a high-risk "buy the hype" scenario. Bitcoin (BTC) sentiment is currently bearish due to potential sell pressure from MicroStrategy, making it a high-risk contrarian entry for long-term holders with a target of $80,000. In the energy sector, Brent Crude near $96/barrel remains a high-conviction trade driven by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Conversely, investors should look to exit Zcash (ZEC) and Ethereum (ETH), as both assets face significant technical risks and deteriorating market sentiment.

I Finally Started Trading Stocks... [Stream Recap]

Marvell Technology (MRVL) represents a high-conviction growth play following an endorsement from NVIDIA’s CEO, with analysts eyeing a valuation bridge between its current $191B market cap and Broadcom’s (AVGO) $2.2T benchmark. In the AI sector, investors should target hardware and infrastructure providers that will benefit from Google’s (GOOGL) massive $80 billion AI capital expenditure plan. While Bitcoin (BTC) faces short-term outflows, look for "decoupling" strength in assets like Hyperliquid (HYP) or privacy-focused narratives like Zcash (ZEC) as potential leaders for the next leg up. Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) offers a unique turnaround opportunity as it pivots branding to capitalize on the "looks-maxing" and GLP-1 fashion trends. For commodity exposure, Copper is the preferred technical setup over precious metals, while AMC serves as a speculative play on the rising demand for "In Real Life" events and new-media content.

LIVE: Stocks DUMPING... BTC is 65K!? Pokemon Is EXPLODING!!!!! WTF IS GOING ON

Reduce Bitcoin (BTC) exposure or wait for a potential retest of the $60,000 to $50,000 liquidity levels before starting a long-term spot accumulation.

Rotate capital into Hyperliquid (HYPE), which is showing extreme relative strength as a high-conviction "crypto index" play capturing revenue from trading volumes and real-world assets.

Monitor the Quantinuum (DNAP) IPO and consider Honeywell (HON) as a strategic proxy play, as it owns 55% of the company and benefits from the massive government-funded quantum computing narrative.

Prioritize Meta (META) for AI exposure over NVIDIA (NVDA), following reports of strong monetization potential and direct praise from industry leaders.

Maintain a geopolitical hedge through Oil as prices trend toward $96/barrel, or consider the TA-35 Index for a contrarian play on resilient Israeli equities.

LIVE: Bitcoin Is Going To ZERO!! Jensen Pumps MRVL, Stocks Are HOT! Trump Is MAD!?

Buy Marvell Technology (MRVL) on pullbacks following a massive endorsement from NVIDIA’s CEO, with the stock showing momentum toward a $300+ price target. Consider Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) as a turnaround play, as the company benefits from a "wardrobe refresh" cycle driven by the widespread use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. For crypto exposure, favor Hyperliquid (HYPE) over Bitcoin (BTC), as it is currently decoupling from the broader market and showing relative strength. Use Zcash (ZEC) as a strategic hedge against "Quantum Risk" narratives, as it has recently seen a significant volume breakout and price spike during market dips. Avoid heavy Bitcoin (BTC) positions in the short term, as it faces "rage capitulation" and potential selling pressure from MicroStrategy if prices drop below $60,000.

Michael Saylor Just Sold His Bitcoin... [Stream Recap]

The AI sector is shifting from hardware to software, making Palantir (PLTR), Dell (DELL), and the iShares Software ETF (IGV) high-conviction plays within the current "Trump trade" narrative. For pre-IPO exposure to the rapidly growing Anthropic, investors should look toward Google (GOOGL) or secondary market platforms. In the crypto space, Hyperliquid (HYPE) is the top "risk-on" leader to watch for decoupling from Bitcoin (BTC), while Venice (VVV) offers a "Private AI" play with a target entry range of $18 - $20. ASICS (7936.T) presents a strong "social arbitrage" opportunity as the brand gains mainstream fashion dominance, supported by significant upward momentum on the Tokyo exchange. Conversely, exercise extreme caution with Space stocks like RKLB and ASTS following recent sector-wide sell-offs and a lack of immediate positive catalysts.

LIVE: Stocks ATH!! Saylor SOLD Bitcoin..!? Anthropic IPO Is Here!!!! HYPE to $100!?

Avoid opening new positions in Bitcoin (BTC) for now, as persistent ETF outflows and negative sentiment around MicroStrategy sales may push prices toward the $60,000 cycle low. Instead, look to Hyperliquid (HYPE), which is currently the strongest-performing crypto asset due to its high-growth "pre-IPO" trading platform for companies like SpaceX. In the equity market, Palantir (PLTR) remains a high-conviction long play as it lags behind other "Trump-endorsed" stocks like DELL that have already seen massive gains. Investors seeking indirect exposure to the upcoming Anthropic IPO should monitor Zoom (ZM), which holds an equity stake in the AI firm. Finally, consider a retail momentum trade in ASICS (7936.T) to capitalize on the visible global trend and brand resurgence of Onitsuka Tiger footwear.