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threadguy

by @notthreadguy

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Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.
Investment Summary
Updated 8 hours ago
Summary of insights from content in the last 30 days

AI Infrastructure & Semiconductors

Memory and connectivity are the new bottlenecks as the AI trade shifts from pure compute to infrastructure. MU and MRVL are emerging as primary beneficiaries of the CXL and high-bandwidth memory build-out.

  • Micron (MU): High-conviction play on AI memory; analysts targeting $1,625 based on structural HBM demand.
  • Marvell (MRVL): Key beneficiary of the Compute Express Link (CXL) trend; momentum building toward a $300+ price target.
  • Astera Labs (ALAB): Critical hardware play for AI data center connectivity and memory-sharing bottlenecks.
  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Core holding as CEO Jensen Huang signals the multi-year infrastructure cycle is only in year one.

SpaceX & Space Economy

The SpaceX IPO is the dominant market narrative, expected to drain liquidity from smaller "Space Beta" names while establishing a new valuation floor for the sector.

  • SpaceX (SPACE): Generational holding with a $1.75T+ valuation; any price under $175 is a high-conviction entry.
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB): High-volatility "Space Beta" outperforming broader indices, though vulnerable to liquidity drain from SpaceX.
  • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS): Emerging as a sector leader; maintain positions as it outperforms flat broader markets.

On-Chain Perps & Fintech

Hyperliquid is decoupling from Bitcoin as it evolves into a high-margin financial platform, while Robinhood captures massive new AUM through policy-driven initiatives.

  • Hyperliquid (HYPE): Top crypto conviction; capturing global demand for 24/7 trading of commodities and pre-IPO equities.
  • Robinhood (HOOD): Strong fundamental bull case as it captures billions in new assets via "Trump Accounts" initiatives.
  • Palantir (PLTR): High-conviction software play benefiting from the "Trump Trade" and defense contract momentum.

IRL Experiences & Consumer

Capital is rotating into physical, high-status assets that cannot be replicated by AI, driven by record-breaking demand for live events.

  • MSG Entertainment (MSGE): Top "IRL Scarcity" pick; trophy asset play on iconic venues with reasonable 25x forward P/E.
  • Live Nation (LYV): Dominant vertically integrated play capturing the global surge in live concert and ticket demand.
  • AMC Entertainment (AMC): Speculative momentum play driven by record box office performance and social theater-going trends.

AI-generated summary. Not investment advice. Learn more.

Ask about threadguyAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

Recent Posts

628 posts
Anti-AI Backlash Goes Mainstream, the Explosion of Analog, and AMC Fumbling the Trade of the Year

Avoid AMC Entertainment (AMC) despite the "movie renaissance" trend, as aggressive management dilution and high debt levels make it a high-risk "trap" for retail investors. Focus instead on the "In-Real-Life" experience theme by looking at Madison Square Garden (MSGE), Sphere (SPHR), and Royal Caribbean (RCL), which are showing much stronger price momentum. Monitor Micron Technology (MU) as a critical sector bellwether; a failure to rally significantly after earnings could signal a broader top for semiconductor and AI-related stocks. Consider a "Quantum Dominance" position in IBM or specialized firms like IONQ and RGTI, as these companies are poised to benefit from increasing U.S. government support and political momentum. While Meta Platforms (META) remains a long-term powerhouse, wait for potential market dips triggered by semiconductor volatility to build or expand your position.

China's Open-Source AI Surge, the Death of Luxury, and Why Keeping Money Is Harder Than Making It

Investors should consider a Bullish stance on AMC Entertainment (AMC) as a play on the "IRL" trend, driven by a strong summer movie slate and a resurgence in social theater-going among younger demographics. In the semiconductor space, Micron Technology (MU) remains a high-conviction but volatile trade ahead of earnings, while technical AI bottlenecks highlight Astera Labs (ALAB) and Marvell (MRVL) as key beneficiaries of the Compute Express Link (CXL) memory-sharing trend. Conversely, adopt a Bearish outlook on traditional luxury leader LVMH (MC.PA) as consumer status shifts away from logos toward "health-maxing" brands like Alo Yoga and wearable tech. Exercise extreme caution with SpaceX proxies like Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ), as significant share unlocks and dilution risks are expected through August and February. For those seeking high-risk "special situations," Chinese AI models like Zhipu (ZIPU) offer exposure to U.S. export-restricted markets, though they trade at extreme valuation premiums compared to Western peers.

LIVE: Micron x Anthropic!? Google Is Getting CRUSHED, Chinese AI Is TAKING OVER! SpaceX CRASHING!?

Investors should consider a high-conviction long position in Micron (MU) ahead of its Wednesday earnings, as its partnership with Anthropic positions it as a primary beneficiary of the AI memory build-out. IBM offers a short-term bullish opportunity following its OpenAI partnership and leadership in the U.S. government’s push for quantum computing dominance. For a recovery play, AMC Entertainment (AMC) is a "very long" conviction trade driven by record-breaking box office performance and a cultural shift toward real-world social experiences. Traders looking for the next technical bottleneck in AI hardware should monitor Astera Labs (ALAB) and Marvell (MRVL), which are key players in the emerging Compute Express Link (CXL) sector. Conversely, exercise caution with Google (GOOGL) due to AI talent drain and SpaceX private shares due to potential dilution and supply unlocks.

Trading Stocks Has Changed Forever... [Stream Recap]

Investors should monitor SpaceX secondary markets for a potential support floor at $175, while avoiding the urge to add to positions during late-stage rallies above $215. For AMC Entertainment (AMC), consider a tactical long position to capture momentum from high ticket demand, with a strict exit strategy set for the July 17th movie premiere. StubHub serves as a strong thematic play on summer event volume, with the July 19th World Cup Final acting as a primary catalyst for peak platform fees. In the semiconductor space, focus on high-volatility names like NVIDIA (NVDA), Marvell (MRVL), and Micron (MU), which are currently favored by traders for their crypto-like daily price swings. To gain an edge in this "whipsaw era," prioritize event-based triggers and irregular volume spikes over traditional time-based charts to catch rapid moves in the Mag-7 and AI sectors.

GTA 6 Is About To Make BILLIONS... [Stream Recap]

Investors should consider Butterfly Network (BFLY) as a high-conviction "shovels in a gold mine" play, as they provide the essential ultrasound-on-chip hardware for MidJourney’s upcoming AI medical scanners. For those tracking the "Trump Trade," Intel (INTC) remains a primary beneficiary of potential policy shifts favoring domestic semiconductor manufacturing and government-backed partnerships. Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) offers a historically reliable pre-release run-up opportunity as hype builds for the GTA 6 launch, which is expected to break global sales records. Avoid new long positions in Bitcoin (BTC) until it decisively clears the $67,000 resistance level, as the current "dead zone" price action lacks a clear bullish catalyst. Exercise extreme caution with MicroStrategy (MSTR) near $109, as the risk of a "death spiral" increases if the company is forced to liquidate Bitcoin holdings to fund high-yield dividend obligations.

This FOMC Changes Everything... [Stream Recap]
No insights available yet
This Stock Just BROKE Wall Street... [Stream Recap]

Investors should monitor SpaceX on secondary markets as it trades near $256, but remain cautious of extreme volatility driven by its low 4-5% tradable float and upcoming options launch. Hyperliquid (HYPE) remains a high-conviction play in the crypto-finance crossover space, recently hitting all-time highs near $77 while capturing significant market share from centralized exchanges. The semiconductor sector, including NVDA, AMD, and AVGO, is showing technical "double top" patterns and regulatory risks, suggesting a period of de-risking or rotation away from the AI trade. Avoid Snap Inc. (SNAP) following the poorly received $2,195 Spectacles launch, which has triggered sharp selling pressure and a lack of mass-market appeal. With Crude Oil hitting multi-month lows, a potential "passive easing" from the FOMC could create an asymmetric bullish opportunity for Silver and broader equities if interest rate hikes are paused.

LIVE: Elon Is EVEN RICHER!? + SpaceX Buys Cursor, HYPE is COOKING, Kevin Warsh TOMORROW!!!!!!

For SpaceX, any price under $175 represents a high-conviction entry point, as internal incentives and the Cursor acquisition create a strong floor to maintain valuations during the initial trading window. Investors should prioritize Apple (AAPL) for its "Private Cloud Compute" moat, while avoiding high-priced AI wearables like Snap (SNAP) which lack immediate retail utility. In the decentralized finance space, Hyperliquid (HYPE) is the premier infrastructure play to capture the shift toward 24/7 on-chain trading of both crypto and traditional assets. Regarding the macro outlook, watch for a "dovish surprise" from the FOMC and Kevin Warsh, as falling oil prices may provide the necessary cover for the Fed to avoid further rate hikes. Finally, consider reducing exposure to Uber (UBER), as the rise of autonomous vehicle fleets threatens to commoditize their distribution model.

SpaceX Just Shocked Everyone... [Stream Recap]

Investors should maintain high conviction in SpaceX as a low-float narrative play, driven by a massive supply-demand imbalance and Elon Musk’s $1 trillion revenue projection. In the semiconductor sector, Micron (MU) and AMD remain top picks as they hit new all-time highs fueled by the emerging "Local AI" hardware trend. Hyperliquid (HYPE) is currently a high-momentum trade positioned for new all-time highs following a significant breakout in the $60 range. For "special situation" crypto trades, Zcash (ZEC) and Near Protocol (NEAR) offer actionable upside as regulatory pressures and AI audits drive interest in privacy-focused assets. Conversely, investors should consider fading Oil spikes and Jito (JTO), as geopolitical risks appear overpriced and the Solana ecosystem currently lacks relative strength.

LIVE: War Is ACTUALLY OVER!!!! Stocks ATH Again!? SpaceX Is UNREAL!!!!! Anthropic Is BANNED...OMGGG!

Investors should consider a long position in SpaceX (SPACE) to capitalize on a supply squeeze driven by low float and Elon Musk’s $1 trillion revenue projection, though they should watch for volatility as options trading begins. The US government’s export controls on Anthropic create a massive tailwind for open-source AI, making Zipu (2513.HK) and local hardware providers like AMD and Apple (AAPL) high-conviction beneficiaries. In the crypto sector, Bitcoin (BTC) appears to have bottomed near $59k-$62k, while Hyperliquid (HYPE) offers a structural long opportunity due to its high fee generation. For long-term privacy plays, Zcash (ZEC) is positioned as an underpriced asset class to hedge against increasing global internet censorship and surveillance. Finally, a "special situation" trade exists in StubHub, which is expected to generate massive fees from the upcoming World Cup and the broader "USA Excellence" theme.

The Trade That Nobody Wants To Talk About

Investors should capitalize on the "IRL Scarcity" thesis by shifting capital toward physical, high-status assets that cannot be replicated by AI or digital platforms. Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) is the top conviction pick, offering a "trophy asset" play on iconic NYC venues with a reasonable 25x forward P/E. For exposure to the global elite, Liberty Media Corp (FWONK) serves as a premier luxury brand play as Formula One becomes the ultimate social status symbol for the top 1%. Live Nation Entertainment (LYV) provides a dominant, vertically integrated way to capture the surge in live concert demand through its ownership of venues, talent, and Ticketmaster. While Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS) offers rare ownership of the Knicks and Rangers, investors should remain cautious on TKO Group Holdings (TKO) due to a current lack of marketable superstar talent.

SpaceX's IPO Just Changed The Stock Market Forever... [Stream Recap]

Investors should focus on SpaceX (SPCX) as a long-term core holding due to its 85% global launch dominance and projected Starlink revenue of $11.4 billion in 2025. With only 4% of shares currently available, expect extreme price volatility and potential "fireworks" as leveraged 2x and 3x SPCX ETFs begin trading soon. Avoid "sympathy plays" like Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST Spacemobile (ASTS), which have proven to be "sell the news" events that lose value once major industry milestones are reached. For infrastructure exposure, Copper is a high-conviction buy as it attempts a major breakout, while Dell (DELL) remains a top pick for AI hardware growth. In the entertainment sector, AMC offers short-term momentum driven by a strong film slate, while StubHub is a strategic trade to capture surging global event demand.

LIVE: SpaceX IPO!! War Is OVER... Elon Is A TRILLIONAIRE!? Touching Grass Is BACK...

Investors should monitor SpaceX (SPCX) for a potential breakout above $175.50, though caution is advised ahead of a significant share unlock and supply shock expected six months post-IPO. For those seeking exposure to the physical infrastructure of AI and robotics, Emerson Electric (EMR) and Bloom Energy (BE) offer strategic entries into the "bottleneck" themes of power and hardware manufacturing. Copper remains a high-conviction industrial play, with a recommended entry point if the metal breaks toward the $6.00 level on high volume. In the crypto sector, decentralized infrastructure (DePIN) projects like GeoNet (GEOD) on Solana provide high-upside revenue-share models, though investors must account for extremely low liquidity. Finally, Talon Energy (TLN) is highlighted as a primary institutional-grade vehicle for capturing the massive energy demands required by the next generation of AI data centers.

Trump "Ended" World War 3 Again...? [Stream Recap]

The upcoming SpaceX IPO is the highest conviction opportunity, with a recommended strategy of dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into the stock to treat it as a generational holding. Investors should be cautious with other space stocks like Rocket Lab (RKLB) and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), as SpaceX may drain liquidity from these smaller competitors. In the semiconductor sector, Micron (MU), Arm Holdings (ARM), and Marvell (MRVL) are showing strong momentum and remain the primary way to play the ongoing AI recovery. For those looking at "In Real Life" consumer trends, AMC Entertainment (AMC) and StubHub are top picks to benefit from the resurgence in live events and cinema. Finally, while Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of stabilizing around $63,463, remain cautious of geopolitical volatility and consider fading the recent "doom" moves in Crude Oil.

What I Learned From The Greatest Stock Traders EVER.. - Jack Schwager

Investors should prioritize AI stocks and Semiconductors as the primary momentum leaders, as capital is currently rotating out of stagnant crypto markets into these high-growth tech sectors. To hedge against ongoing geopolitical instability and supply shocks, maintain exposure to Oil and Commodities, which remain the most effective vehicles for trading global conflict. Watch for "Bear Trap" signals—where an asset hits a new low but immediately rallies—as a high-conviction indicator to enter a position after "weak hands" have been cleared out. When evaluating your portfolio, ignore the Sharpe Ratio and instead use the Gain-to-Pain Ratio (total monthly returns divided by the sum of monthly losses) to ensure your strategy provides enough profit to justify the emotional stress of drawdowns. Above all, implement strict risk controls to ensure no single trade can "take you out," focusing on making significantly more on your winners than you lose on your losers.

LIVE: SpaceX IPO TMRW!!! War Is OVER & Stocks Are BACK! Oil is CRASHING! - Jack D. Schwager 5PM EST

Prepare for the SpaceX IPO on Friday, which is expected to debut at a $1.75 trillion valuation and may cause a "liquidity vamp" that pulls capital away from other speculative assets. Monitor "space betas" like Rocket Lab (RKLB) and ASTS for high volatility, as investors may rotate funds out of these names to participate in the SpaceX raise. In the technology sector, focus on recovering semiconductor leaders like Micron (MU) and ARM, but exercise caution with Google (GOOGL) due to recent heavy equity dilution. Avoid entering new long positions in Oil (WTI/Brent) as the removal of the "war premium" and potential geopolitical settlements drive prices lower. For long-term growth, consider the "IRL" entertainment theme through stocks like Ferrari (RACE) and AMC, which are benefiting from a multi-year renaissance in physical consumer experiences.

Frequently asked about threadguy

What does threadguy talk about on Kazuha?

Kazuha indexes 628 posts from threadguy, with AI-extracted insights covering 715 distinct assets (stocks, ETFs, cryptocurrencies, and other investable assets).

Which assets does threadguy cover the most?

threadguy's most-discussed assets on Kazuha are BTC, SOL, ZEC, ETH, NVDA. See the "Top assets covered" section above for the full breakdown with sentiment.

Is threadguy bullish or bearish right now?

Mostly bullish. In the last 30 days, threadguy had 361 bullish, 125 bearish, and 29 neutral takes across all assets they discussed (per AI-extracted sentiment scoring on Kazuha).

Where does Kazuha get threadguy's insights?

threadguy's publicly available content (podcast episodes, YouTube videos, or X/Twitter posts) is transcribed and analyzed by an LLM that extracts the assets discussed and the speaker's sentiment toward each one. Each insight links back to the original source.