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threadguy

by @notthreadguy

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Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.
Ask about threadguyAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

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851 posts
What happened to Leopold Aschenbrenner? : The FLOOD Interview

Accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) during its historical volatility cycles, keeping in mind that massive drawdowns of up to 80% have previously created major long-term buying opportunities near $60,000 or lower.

Consider holding Hyperliquid (HYPE) while using derivatives on HIP3 to hedge your portfolio's US dollar value, allowing you to earn staking yields and funding payments without triggering immediate taxable events.

Target oversold artificial intelligence infrastructure and memory plays like Micron, SK Hynix, Bloom Energy, Sandisk, and Nebius following recent forced liquidations, but avoid excessive leverage given the disconnect between massive hyperscaler spending and tangible revenue.

Maintain roughly 50% in cash reserves during uncertain market setups to patiently wait for deeper, more rational entry points instead of chasing minor relief rallies in the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (QQQ).

MARKET OPEN: onchain is HOT, Korean Stocks CRASHING Still, Kevin Warsh was a Mistake...

Look for a potential technical rebound in liquidated AI infrastructure stocks like Bloom Energy and SK Hynix now that forced hedge fund selling has cleared the market.

Establish a long-term position in Uniswap (UNI) targeting 2026 to capitalize on the upcoming revival of decentralized finance and innovative Uniswap V4 hooks.

Track on-chain volume metrics on platforms like Pump.fun to gauge whether speculative retail momentum in tokens like Mars Coin is expanding.

Avoid high-leverage thematic funds that can trigger aggressive cascade liquidations during sudden market drawdowns.

Semiconductors Keep Crashing, Will the FOMC Save Us, and the Gatchafication of Everything

Capitalize on Apple Inc. (AAPL) by monitoring how their new device leasing program, with monthly payments starting around $11.99, shifts hardware sales into high-margin recurring subscription revenue.

Accumulate shares of NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) as the primary bellwether for artificial intelligence infrastructure, leveraging its unmatched dominance in the GPU market despite near-term price fluctuations.

Track Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closely throughout 2025 as its high-profile collaboration with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) creates powerful, policy-driven growth catalysts.

Use strong earnings beats from legacy fintech pioneers like PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) as a broader market indicator to gauge overall health and sentiment across the technology sector.

MARKET OPEN: Will STOCKS finally recover? The KOSPI is LIMIT DOWN again. FOMC today. What is PipeDog

Avoid trying to "bottom-tick" high-beta semiconductor assets like the SOXL ETF, which has plummeted roughly 67% from its all-time highs amid rising interest rate volatility.

Monitor major tech hyperscalers for concrete signs of capital expenditure cuts, as any slowdown in AI data center spending will further pressure semiconductor earnings.

Watch for broader adoption of Apple’s (AAPL) new leasing and buy-now-pay-later program with Klarna, which signals tightening consumer affordability and a shift toward recurring hardware subscription models.

The Ansem Interview, the Semiconductor Crash, and the LeBron Economy

Accumulate Solana (SOL) to capitalize on its dominant ecosystem activity, faster speeds, and growing mobile app integration. Monitor Bitcoin (BTC) near the crucial $63,000 support level before establishing aggressive directional positions due to short-term macro headwinds. Position for a broader structural recovery in crypto by focusing on improved developer tooling, mobile interfaces, and AI-driven startups utilizing permissionless blockchains. Target assets benefiting from the explosive growth of stablecoins as superior rails for cross-border commercial payments. Finally, watch for breakout momentum in gamified speculation and prediction markets as primary drivers of new retail user engagement.

Ansem - Never Been This Bullish & the Billion Dollar Wallet

Accumulate Solana (SOL) during consolidation phases, targeting a long-term bull objective of $600 while watching short-term support near $82 to $84.

Use the $58,000 to $60,000 zone as a key accumulation range to build a foundational macro hedge in Bitcoin (BTC).

Allocate a small, speculative portion of your portfolio to high-beta application tokens like Pump.fun (PUMP) to capture outsized returns during risk-on market rotations.

Incorporate privacy-focused layer-1 assets like Zcash (ZEC) as thematic holdings that move independently of standard crypto market cycles.

Target high-demand decentralized perpetual trading protocols like Hyperliquid (HYPE) that demonstrate sustainable volume and fee generation across varying market conditions.

THE ANSEM INTERVIEW (LIVE)

THE ANSEM INTERVIEW (LIVE)

104 days ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube1 hr 40 min

Accumulate Solana (SOL) as a core crypto holding, targeting a long-term price of $600 while watching the $82 to $84 support zone for technical entry. Treat Bitcoin (BTC) as a premier macroeconomic hedge and monitor the $58,000 to $60,000 range as a critical defense level for institutional accumulation. Utilize mobile-friendly applications and track high-volume on-chain launch platforms like PumpFun to capture early retail momentum during market rebounds. Add Apple (AAPL) to your portfolio as a defensive mega-cap stock that benefits from local AI integration without the heavy capital expenditure drag of data centers.

MARKET OPEN: Stocks Are DUMPING, rate hikes, China Is Making Memory, Crypto Is Holding On For Life

Accumulate Pump.fun (PUMP) for its robust protocol-level revenue generation of roughly one million dollars daily across all market conditions. Scale into this position cautiously due to high correlation with crypto sentiment and the risk of a broader Bitcoin (BTC) market correction. Explore speculative, high-beta Ethereum (ETH) ecosystem products like wrapped ERC-20 token models (FWA) to capture explosive upside from experimental consumer engagement. Wait for structural protocol adjustments like external buybacks to establish healthier market floors before entering volatile on-chain collectible trades. Maintain strict risk management, as these assets can experience brutal drawdowns of 60% or more without traditional liquidity supports.

The Chinese Semiconductor Moment, Onchain Spots, and Celebrity Traders

Accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) as higher lows print near $65,000 and on-chain activity accelerates alongside rising retail engagement. Exercise caution with Western semiconductor stocks like NVIDIA (NVDA) due to intense competitive pressure and massive output expansion from Chinese manufacturers like CXMT. Position portfolios to capture potential breakout momentum in commodities, specifically keeping a close eye on gold trading above $4,000 and copper testing key resistance. Focus your equity exposure on high-momentum market leaders such as Shopify, Palantir, and Oracle while avoiding underperforming legacy consumer brands like Nike. Closely monitor U.S. regulatory developments regarding open-source AI, as potential restrictions could increase corporate cost structures and introduce broader market volatility.

Market Open: Crypto is on FIRE. CXMT IPO. China vs USA AI. and everything else

Capitalize on the viral momentum of Pump.fun (PUMP) by scaling into positions carefully around the $52 entry level while managing extreme volatility. Treat Token Works / FWA (FWA) as a high-risk "zero to hero" play, keeping a close eye on liquidity risks inherent in its loot-box mechanism. Watch NVIDIA (NVDA) closely at the critical $200 support level, as a breakdown could trigger broader weakness across the AI hardware sector. Diversify your tech holdings by investing in resilient, multi-layered giants like Google (GOOG) to capture cloud and infrastructure upside. Finally, balance your portfolio across open-source AI infrastructure themes to hedge against shifting regulatory and geopolitical risks.

Bubble Boi - Selling Everything, the Kimi Shock, and Killing DRAM

Accumulate shares of Intel (INTC) during market pullbacks over the next six to twelve months, capitalizing on temporary analyst skepticism despite its $20 billion backed CapEx plan and 14a node transition. Exercise caution and closely monitor commodity DRAM pricing trends when trading Micron Technology (MU), as unsustainable pricing power poses a growing risk of margin compression. Watch for a potential IPO from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) around a 130 billion valuation, which presents a compelling growth opportunity despite Chinese market regulatory risks. Consider Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) as a high-value play for gaining direct exposure to the expanding Chinese artificial intelligence and cloud ecosystem. Finally, research flash controller specialists like Phison to capture emerging local AI hardware trends as flash memory increasingly replaces traditional DRAM roles.

Jensen Loves Open Source, Bubble Boi Shares Alpha, and I Have Fun Onchain

Consider participating in the upcoming CXMT IPO, as this Chinese memory maker is viewed as a massively mispriced generational trade due to surging global demand for commodity DRAM. Look past the AI hype and monitor Micron Technology (MU) for commodity memory pricing trends, though be cautious of how long its exceptionally high profit margins can sustainably last. Watch out for major cloud providers adopting proprietary custom silicon chips (ASICs), which poses the primary long-term threat to NVIDIA's (NVDA) dominant market share and elite pricing power. Balance the massive growth potential of Chinese semiconductor manufacturing against regulatory risks and potential government intervention before allocating capital.

LIVE: The BUBBLE BOI Interview

LIVE: The BUBBLE BOI Interview

108 days ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube1 hr 16 min

Capitalize on recent market volatility by buying Intel Corporation (INTC) on pullbacks over a 6-to-12-month horizon, leveraging its guaranteed customer demand and advanced 18A and 14A manufacturing nodes. Accumulate shares of Alibaba (BABA) to capture asymmetric value, as its exceptionally cheap cloud business and integration with world-class Chinese AI labs trade at an attractive geopolitical discount. Invest in memory alternatives and specialized flash controller providers like Phison to capitalize on the structural AI buildout and surging semiconductor demand beyond just GPUs. Monitor Micron Technology (MU) to benefit directly from surging commodity DRAM pricing despite broader cyclical headwinds and historical HBM criticisms. Maintain a long-term bullish stance on NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) for AI infrastructure, recognizing that new linear attention models will actually drive higher GPU inference utilization.

MARKET OPEN: Oil Is Pumping?? INTC Beats Earnings??? We goin to WAR???  + Bubble Boi at NOON

Capitalize on the current depressed crypto sentiment by accumulating Bitcoin (BTC) near $64,200 and Solana (SOL) around $74 as a 3-to-6-month accumulation play ahead of the next bull market.

Ride the ongoing "Real-World Experience" consumer trend by trading short-term box office catalysts in IMAX Corporation (IMAX), while keeping a close eye on potential equity dilution.

Buy hardware giant NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) to capitalize on the rapid expansion of open-source AI models scaling across global factories and hospitals.

Position for the Unitree Robotics public debut on Shanghai's Star Market, with shares anticipated to begin trading as early as July 2026.

Monitor high-growth private infrastructure plays like SpaceX, which bridges aerospace innovation with massive AI compute demands, though entry requires careful valuation discipline.

corporate interns are getting rich off memecoins

Monitor major corporate social media accounts for unexpected posts featuring viral animals or internet trends to spot early memecoin opportunities. Watch the Solana blockchain closely for incoming liquidity and volume spikes driven by this viral social media attention. Consider speculative positions in high-attention Solana-based tokens like Jimothy or Mudang only when viral momentum is actively accelerating. Remember that memecoin trading is extremely volatile and driven purely by social sentiment rather than fundamental value, so manage your risk accordingly. Always trade with capital you can afford to lose given the speculative nature of these viral digital assets.

Robinhood’s Memecoin Strategy is Working and Onchain is Fun Again

Buy Philip Morris ($PM**)** as it trades near all-time highs of $194, driven by record-breaking Zyn sales and an unexpected rebound in cigarette demand. Short-term sentiment is currently punishing major AI infrastructure spenders like Google and Microsoft for surging capital expenditures, creating temporary downward pressure on their stocks. Conversely, immediately capitalize on the AI sector rotation by investing in hardware and memory suppliers like Micron, Broadcom, and AMD that are collecting this massive wave of enterprise spending. Avoid legacy tobacco companies like Altria due to ongoing regulatory crackdowns and severe missteps in alternative nicotine markets. Finally, use traditional defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin ($LMT**)**, which recently surged 12%, as a reliable geopolitical hedge during broader market pullbacks.

AI Traders, Legal Perps & Tokenized Stocks - Lighter Founder Vlad Novakovski

Accumulate BTC and ETH ahead of the upcoming Clarity Act, which is expected to serve as a major institutional catalyst for the broader crypto market.

Monitor LIT for a potential entry as the protocol rolls out its Lighter EVM and new options trading features over the next two quarters.

Capitalize on LIT's current buyback mechanism, which directly utilizes protocol revenue to purchase tokens from the open market.

Watch for increased retail adoption of LIT driven by its unique zero trading fee model and major integrations with platforms like Telegram / TON and Robinhood.

Keep an eye on LIT's ongoing compliance collaborations with the CFTC, as securing a regulated U.S. market presence will create a strong competitive moat.

Is China Distilling Claude, ChatGPT Breaks Containment, and Retail Markets

Capitalize on AMD's massive multi-gigawatt Instinct MI450 chip deal with Anthropic ahead of its early 2027 rollout. Buy RKLB following its recent $266 million U.S. Space Force contract win, which secures strong recurring revenue through December 2028. Adopt a bearish near-term outlook on GOOGL due to severe AI roadmap delays, executive selling, and the threat of lost Reddit data partnerships. Leverage consistent institutional spot ETF inflows to buy BTC dips during broader geopolitical market choppiness. Hedge against Middle East escalations and macro volatility by accumulating safe-haven commodities like gold and silver while Brent Crude hovers near $90 to $95.

MARKET OPEN: ChatGPT Just Escaped… Google Earnings Today! Is Crypto’s Bull Market Here?

Avoid speculative consumer hype-drops like Swatch Group (UHR.SW) limited editions, as their rapid price retracements carry severe immediate downside risk. Consider taking profits on leveraged Brent Crude (BZ=F) long positions initiated near $82.40, as geopolitical volatility above $90 creates extreme drawdown hazards. Accumulate shares of Expand Energy (EXE) trading at 4x EBITDA, as it is well-positioned to capitalize on the anticipated structural natural gas shortage beginning in 2028. Explore foreign telecom SK Telecom (SKM) for unique venture capital exposure to private AI lab Anthropic ahead of future IPO milestones. Capitalize on high-momentum infrastructure plays like Cerebras Systems (CBRS) surging past $240, targeting the hardware and compute providers currently capturing the bulk of AI sector value.