TBPN
Podcast

TBPN

by John Coogan & Jordi Hays

338 episodes

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
Ask about TBPNAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

Recent Posts

338 posts
Blue Origin Lands Rocket, Valve Drops Steam Machine, Cantor Group Surges | Diet TBPN

Consider investing in major Swiss exporters in the pharmaceuticals and luxury watch sectors, as a significant U.S. tariff reduction from 39% to 15% will directly boost their profits. Be cautious with high-valuation AI stocks, as a strong bearish view suggests the bubble may have already popped for companies trading at unsustainable multiples. Investors should be wary of MicroStrategy (MSTR), which has fallen sharply and is considered a highly volatile and complex proxy for Bitcoin. With overall market sentiment in a state of "extreme fear," contrarian investors may see this as a potential buying opportunity for oversold assets. Finally, monitor the gaming and VR sectors, as private company Valve's new hardware launch in early 2026 is expected to increase competition for public companies like Sony (SONY) and Meta (META).

Blue Origin's Historic Landing, Valve Unveils Steam Machine Console, 2wai Reactions | Everett Randle, Adam Faze

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has initiated a new $4.3 billion position in Google (GOOGL), signaling strong confidence in the company's reasonable valuation and its role in the AI race. Sentiment remains bullish on NVIDIA (NVDA) ahead of its upcoming earnings, as it is the central company driving the entire AI trade. Consider avoiding MicroStrategy (MSTR), which is down 52% in six months amid significant negative sentiment surrounding its leadership and leveraged Bitcoin strategy. Exercise extreme caution with highly speculative sectors like quantum computing, which have recently fallen 40-50%, and be wary of past hype stories like Virgin Galactic (SPCE). The emergence of Blue Origin as a competitor to SpaceX is a bullish long-term sign for the commercial space industry, which could benefit the entire orbital economy.

Thursday's Diet TBPN

Thursday's Diet TBPN

Podcast24 min 14 sec

For investors concerned about an AI bubble, Meta (META) presents a durable investment due to its strong cash flow, which can fund its ambitions without relying on market hype. As a "picks and shovels" play on the AI infrastructure boom, consider private credit firms like Blue Owl (OWL) that are financing the massive data center buildout. The safest long-term strategy appears to be favoring established tech giants like Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL), which have the balance sheets to survive a downturn and acquire key innovators. Be cautious of the high valuations across the AI sector, as the enormous gap between spending and revenue creates significant risk. Ultimately, the most prudent approach is gaining AI exposure through profitable, large-cap companies that can withstand market volatility.

AI Boom Hits Speed Bump, Will Blue Owl Capital Fly Higher? | Jeffrey Katzenberg, The Winklevoss Twins, Hims & Hers CEO Andrew Dudum, Coatue’s Spencer Peterson, Max Hodak, Melisa Tokmak, Tomás Puig

Consider Blue Owl (OWL) as a value play on the AI infrastructure build-out, with analysts calling the beaten-down stock undervalued and its related BDC, OBDC, yielding over 11%. Hims & Hers (HIMS) is strategically positioned to benefit from the mass adoption of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs as it aims to become a key consumer distribution platform. For a speculative, event-driven opportunity, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is reportedly in a sale process that is expected to conclude by the end of the year. Investors seeking exposure to the privacy coin Zcash (ZEC) through a stock can look at Cypherpunk Holdings (CYPH), a trust with strong founder conviction. Exercise extreme caution with MicroStrategy (MSTR), as its debt now exceeds the value of its Bitcoin holdings, creating a significant liquidity risk.

Wednesday’s Diet TBPN

Wednesday’s Diet TBPN

Podcast28 min 9 sec

NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a top conviction buy as its rapid chip innovation creates a powerful and sustained upgrade cycle for its data center customers. Consider Microsoft (MSFT) a core long-term holding, as it is strategically positioning itself as a diversified infrastructure provider for the entire AI economy. A significant expert endorsement of Tesla's (TSLA) new **Hardware 4

Rage Baiting is for Losers, Everett Randle’s 5x Controversy | Jordan Nanos (Technical Staff, SemiAnalysis), Brian Halligan (Co-Founder, Hubspot), Dr. Fei-Fei Li (Co-Founder & CEO, World Labs), Scott Sanders (Chief Growth Officer, Forterra), Jeremy Allaire

A strong endorsement of **Tesla's (TSLA) Full Self-Driving software from its former AI lead suggests a significant technological leap is imminent, reinforcing the long-term bull case. The bearish thesis on **NVIDIA (NVDA) GPU depreciation appears flawed, signaling that massive investments by hyperscalers like MSFT and GOOGL have a longer-than-expected lifespan. Stablecoin issuer Circle is launching its own ARK blockchain to target AI agent payments, creating a new investment opportunity to watch, especially with a potential native token on the horizon. Investors should also monitor the emerging field of 3D generative world models, a new AI category with the potential to disrupt industries like gaming. For alternative exposure to the AI infrastructure boom, consider **Blue Owl (OWL), a private credit firm financing the data center build-out.

AGI in 2035, SoftBank Sells Nvidia, Buffett Goes Quiet | Diet TBPN

The investment timeline for transformative AGI is now viewed as a decade-long play, suggesting investors should focus on long-term capital accumulation in the AI sector. Consider the contrarian bullish case for Nvidia (NVDA), as SoftBank's history of selling the stock too early could be a positive signal for current investors. A critical bottleneck for AI growth is the lack of electricity for data centers, creating a potential investment opportunity in power generation and utility companies. Be cautious with Meta (META), as the departure of a key AI leader signals potential internal friction and strategic uncertainty. Finally, avoid the highly speculative psychedelics sector, which carries significant legal and personal risks for the average investor.

AGI in 2035, SoftBank’s OpenAI Windfall, Buffett Goes Quiet | Casey Handmer, Growing Daniel, JD Ross, Scott Shapiro, Laurence Allen

Retail investors can participate in the upcoming Monad token sale on Coinbase at a price of $0.025 per token, representing a high-risk opportunity to invest before a public listing. The massive power requirements for the AI build-out present a key investment theme, making energy producers and utility companies potential beneficiaries of this new demand. For a defensive position, consider Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), which holds a massive cash pile to deploy during a potential market downturn. The long-term AGI development timeline towards 2035 reinforces the investment case for foundational 'pick-and-shovel' companies like NVIDIA (NVDA). As an alternative to the volatile AI market, the Defense Tech sector may offer a more stable growth profile with less speculative froth.

Silicon Valley vs the Vatican, Bryan Johnson’s Shroom Trip | Diet TBPN

An external analysis projects Tesla's (TSLA) Full Self-Driving could reach human-level performance in 8 years, providing a concrete long-term catalyst for investors. For a more conservative investment in the autonomous vehicle theme, consider Alphabet (GOOGL) due to its Waymo division's risk-averse, safety-first strategy. In the private markets, monitor AI model builder Anthropic for a potential IPO, as it is projected to be profitable by 2027, ahead of competitors. Also watch for an IPO from Databricks, which is viewed as a stable, core investment in the foundational AI data infrastructure layer. These private companies represent significant future opportunities in the AI space.

Silicon Valley vs The Vatican, Bryan Johnson’s Shroom Trip | Soren Monroe-Anderson, Jeff Miller, Kaz Nejatian, Paul Needham, Jordan Nanos, Isaiah Taylor, Hayden Adams, Grant Lee

A new proposal to implement a fee-and-burn mechanism for the Uniswap (UNI) token is a significant bullish catalyst, directly linking protocol success to token value. Conversely, investors should be cautious with MicroStrategy (MSTR), as it faces significant financial risk from a $689 million interest payment and its premium to Bitcoin is diminishing. Oracle (ORCL) has made a high-risk, high-reward move by securing a massive deal to build AI infrastructure for OpenAI. This bet could transform Oracle into a leading AI cloud provider but carries substantial risk as its success is heavily dependent on a single customer. This move escalates the AI cloud wars, putting direct competitive pressure on Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL).

Diet TBPN: November 7, 2025

Diet TBPN: November 7, 2025

Podcast24 min 16 sec

The recent 16% pullback in NVIDIA (NVDA) may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors, as strong global demand for its AI chips continues despite high volatility. Consider Snap (SNAP) as its new $400 million partnership with Perplexity AI signals a creative monetization strategy beyond advertising, unlocking potential shareholder value. Recent significant price drops in Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) could also offer more attractive entry points into foundational AI leaders. Conversely, investors should be cautious with the AI Data Center theme due to risks like rapid chip depreciation and rising credit concerns for key operators. This institutional concern is highlighted by reports of Deutsche Bank exploring ways to hedge its exposure to the sector.

Elon's Trillion Dollar Pay Package, Breaking Down the State of AI | Katherine Boyle, Mikey Shulman, Immad Akhund, Jordan Castro

A major reform in defense spending favors agile tech companies like Palantir (PLTR) over legacy contractors, creating a strong investment theme in the defense technology sector. For long-term investors, Tesla's (TSLA) new pay package aligns incentives for a potential 5x return if the company reaches an $8.5 trillion market cap by hitting ambitious robotaxi and robotics goals. Consider established tech giants like Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) as safer, more hedged ways to invest in the AI trend, as their core businesses do not depend on it. Be cautious with Ford (F) and the broader EV truck market, as the company is reportedly considering scrapping its unprofitable F-150 Lightning. Finally, rising default risk for key infrastructure player CoreWeave signals potential bubble concerns, warranting caution on highly-levered AI investments.

Diet TBPN: November 6, 2025

Diet TBPN: November 6, 2025

Podcast28 min 28 sec

The massive energy consumption of the AI boom presents a "picks and shovels" opportunity in the energy sector, which may offer a more stable investment than high-flying tech stocks. Consider Snap (SNAP) as a potential turnaround play following its new partnership with AI-search engine Perplexity, which provides a clear path to monetization. While central to the AI theme, be aware that NVIDIA (NVDA) has recently declined almost 8% and faces significant geopolitical risks from U.S.-China chip export bans. The broader market is showing signs of nervousness, with stocks like Palantir (PLTR) selling off sharply, so investors should be prepared for continued volatility. Finally, watch for signs of weakening consumer health, as spending by lower-income groups has reportedly declined at McDonald's (MCD).

OpenAI's "Backstop," The Benefits of Bubbles, Elon's New Comp Package | Bret Taylor, Dave Baszucki, Vlad Tenev, Uri Marchand, Alex Israel, Paul Erlanger, Nilam Ganenthiran

The massive AI infrastructure build-out presents a primary investment opportunity in NVIDIA (NVDA), whose recent stock dip could be a buying opportunity for long-term believers. A potentially safer way to gain exposure to the AI boom is by investing in energy and utility companies, which will benefit from the immense power demands of new data centers. Snap (SNAP) is showing signs of a potential turnaround after its shares surged on a new AI partnership with Perplexity, creating a new business line. A clear catalyst has emerged for DraftKings (DKNG), which is set to partner with ESPN, while this news is a significant negative for Penn Entertainment (PENN). Finally, Roblox (RBLX) represents a strong growth play on the gaming and creator economy, backed by strong user growth and a solid cash position.

Diet TBPN: November 5, 2025

Diet TBPN: November 5, 2025

Podcast23 min 19 sec

Shift4 Payments (FOUR) is presented as a reasonably valued payments company with strong ties to the growing space economy through its partnership with Starlink. A highly bullish outlook on Google (GOOGL) suggests it could become the world's largest company by the end of 2026, driven by its ambitious AI strategy. Investors should watch for Meta (META) to potentially launch a GPU cloud service within the next two to five years, which would create a major new revenue stream. Reddit (RDDT) is viewed as a potential AI data broker, giving it a more positive outlook than Pinterest (PINS), though risks of low-quality content remain. Lastly, a bearish view on Bitcoin (BTC) highlights its recent underperformance compared to even safe assets like U.S. Treasuries.

Isaacman Back in the Cockpit at NASA, Google Takes AI to Space, 𝕏 Timeline Reactions | Cliff Obrecht, Jerry Murdock, SHL0MS, Shehzan Maredia, Mina Fahmi, Alessandro Chesser, John Maslin, Eugenia Kuyda, Anish Acharya, David Risher & Erin Brewer

Consider Lyft (LYFT), which has become a profitable company generating over $1 billion in free cash flow and is executing a $750 million share buyback. Shift4 Payments (FOUR) is presented as a reasonably valued investment at a 25x P/E ratio, supported by its crucial role in processing payments for Starlink. The weight-loss drug market is a major growth theme, with leaders Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) positioned to benefit from a market projected to reach $139 billion by 2030. For long-term exposure to the "orbital economy," watch Google (GOOGL) as it develops data centers in space, with prototypes planned for launch by early 2027. Following a significant price drop, Pinterest (PINS) could be a relative value opportunity with a P/E ratio of 10, contrasting sharply with more expensive social media peers.

Diet TBPN: November 4, 2025

Diet TBPN: November 4, 2025

Podcast14 min 53 sec

Be cautious with high-valuation restaurant stocks like Chipotle (CMG), Wingstop (WING), and Shake Shack (SHAK), as the sector shows signs of a correction amid weakening consumer trends. Chipotle (CMG) in particular faces significant risks from a perceived decline in food quality and reliance on new store openings for growth. Investor Michael Burry has taken a short position in Palantir (PLTR), and the stock's negative reaction to strong earnings suggests it may be overvalued. While NVIDIA (NVDA) is central to the AI theme, its massive valuation has attracted notable short-sellers, making it a high-risk "battleground" stock. For long-term AI exposure, look beyond chipmakers to companies successfully applying AI to disrupt major industries like law and finance.

Diet TBPN: November 4, 2025

Diet TBPN: November 4, 2025

Podcast14 min 53 sec

Famed investor Michael Burry has taken significant short positions against key AI stocks, specifically NVIDIA (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR), signaling a potential top for the sector. Despite Palantir (PLTR) reporting a 63% year-over-year revenue increase, its stock fell, suggesting very high expectations are already priced in and supporting the bearish case. A strong contrarian view is emerging on Chipotle (CMG), based on claims of declining food quality and high prices that may be alienating its customer base. Investors should closely monitor Chipotle's upcoming same-store sales figures for signs of weakness. Caution is also advised for the broader restaurant stock sector, which may be a deflating bubble after trading at very high valuations.

Sequoia's Leadership Shakeup, Anthropic's Road to Profitability, 𝕏 Timeline Reactions

Consider avoiding fast-casual restaurant stocks like Chipotle (CMG), as the sector faces pressure from weakening consumer spending and declining customer traffic. Be cautious with high-growth stocks like Palantir (PLTR), as its price drop despite strong earnings indicates that extremely high expectations are already priced in. For a speculative play on US manufacturing, investigate T1 Energy (TE), a solar panel producer potentially undervalued at around $4 per share given its production capacity. Watch for Apple's (AAPL) strategy to monetize AI-driven commerce through its partnership with Google, as this represents a major future growth catalyst. In cryptocurrency, focus on Bitcoin (BTC) as the clear institutional winner for a digital store of value, as alternative coins have failed to gain significant traction.

Diet TBPN: November 3, 2025

Diet TBPN: November 3, 2025

Podcast14 min 41 sec

Major firms like Blackstone (BX) and Brookfield (BN) are investing billions into the AI data center build-out, signaling strong institutional conviction in the theme. However, a key risk is the "glut theory," where OpenAI's strategy might intentionally create an oversupply of data centers to lower its future costs. This poses a direct risk to companies like Oracle (ORCL), which is spending tens of billions on infrastructure based on its partnership with OpenAI. Investors in Oracle should be aware of this high customer concentration risk, as its investment's success is heavily tied to OpenAI's unproven financial plans. Monitor any news suggesting a change in the Oracle-OpenAI partnership, as it could significantly impact ORCL's profitability.