$DJT Goes Nuclear, OpenAI in talks at $750B, 2025 Model Wars in Review | Brian Armstrong & Tarek Mansour, Simon Eskildsen
$DJT Goes Nuclear, OpenAI in talks at $750B, 2025 Model Wars in Review | Brian Armstrong & Tarek Mansour, Simon Eskildsen
Podcast2 hr 38 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

The massive demand for AI computing power, highlighted by OpenAI's growth, continues to signal a strong long-term investment case for infrastructure providers like NVIDIA (NVDA). Coinbase (COIN) is expanding beyond crypto into an "Everything Exchange" with stocks and prediction markets, a strategic shift that could significantly grow its revenue. For a high-risk, high-reward play, Trump Media (DJT) has transformed into a speculative technology holding company by merging with nuclear fusion firm TAE Technologies. In the crypto space, Worldcoin's (WLD) partnership with Tinder to verify user identities represents a major step towards real-world adoption and a potential bullish catalyst for the token. Lastly, investors should avoid micro-cap stock AlphaTon Capital (ATON) following its refuted claim of investing in Anduril, which serves as a stark warning against potential market fraud.

Detailed Analysis

OpenAI (Private)

  • The company has had early talks for a new financing round that could value it at $750 billion, a significant increase from its $500 billion valuation a few months prior.
  • The potential fundraising could be for tens of billions of dollars, or even as much as $100 billion.
  • There's a disconnect between the private and public markets. While private investors with inside knowledge are reportedly "piling in," public stocks with exposure to OpenAI have been "crushing." The podcast suggests both can't be right, and the private market sentiment is a bullish signal for OpenAI itself.
  • The general sentiment around the company seems to be shifting from extremely negative ("it's Enron, it's gonna blow up") to a more stable phase, described as moving from the "trough of disillusionment" to a "plateau of productivity."
  • OpenAI continues to release new models, including GPT 5.2 and GPT 5.2 Codex, indicating a rapid pace of innovation.
  • A video of OpenAI's Greg Brockman highlights the company's massive and growing need for computing power ("compute"). This is framed in two ways:
    • Bearish view: The company has a serious, potentially unsolvable problem of constantly needing more money for compute.
    • Bullish view: The insatiable demand for compute is a direct result of massive user demand and an endless opportunity for growth and new product launches.

Takeaways

  • OpenAI's valuation continues to soar in private markets, suggesting that investors with access to the company's internal metrics are very optimistic about its future growth, despite negative sentiment in some public market stocks.
  • The company's aggressive fundraising and constant need for more computing power are high-risk, high-reward indicators. It points to both massive operational costs and enormous demand for its products.
  • For investors, this highlights the ongoing "AI arms race." While you can't invest in OpenAI directly, the key takeaway is the immense capital flowing into the AI sector, which benefits infrastructure providers like NVIDIA (NVDA) and cloud companies.

Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT)

  • DJT announced a merger with TAE Technologies, a nuclear fusion company, in an all-stock deal valuing the combined entity at over $6 billion.
  • This deal marks a major strategic shift for DJT, expanding its business from social media (Truth Social) into alternative energy, in addition to its previous moves into streaming and cryptocurrency.
  • TAE Technologies is presented as a legitimate and serious company, founded in 1998 and backed by major players like Google (GOOGL), Chevron (CVX), and Goldman Sachs (GS).
  • The market reacted very positively to the news, with DJT stock trading up almost 40% on the day of the announcement. Its market cap was noted as $4 billion even before this jump.
  • The deal is compared to how Amazon (AMZN), a company with a social media arm (Twitch), also invests heavily in its own infrastructure (data centers for AWS). The podcast humorously contrasts DJT's move into clean fusion energy with tech giants using diesel generators for backup power.

Takeaways

  • DJT is no longer just a social media or political "meme stock." This merger transforms it into a highly speculative, diversified technology holding company with exposure to social media, streaming, crypto, and now, cutting-edge nuclear fusion.
  • The involvement of a legitimate, venture-backed company like TAE lends a new layer of credibility to DJT's long-term ambitions, though the execution risk is extremely high.
  • Investors should view DJT as a high-volatility stock. The success of this merger is far from guaranteed, but it dramatically changes the narrative and potential long-term value proposition of the company.

AI Sector & The "Model Wars"

  • The podcast reviewed the rapid pace of AI model releases in 2025, including OpenAI's GPT-5 series, Anthropic's Claude 4.5, and Google's Gemini 3.
  • The hosts strongly disagree with the narrative that "AI is stagnating." They argue that the progress is incredible and that performance benchmarks are becoming less useful because the models are getting too good for the old tests.
  • An analogy was made to the dot-com bubble: even though the bubble popped, the internet didn't disappear and went on to transform the world. The sentiment is that AI is following a similar long-term trajectory.
  • The discussion highlights the massive investment flowing into the sector, visualized as a cycle where money flows from investors to companies like NVIDIA (NVDA), which then supply the hardware to AI labs and cloud providers.

Takeaways

  • The long-term investment thesis for AI remains strong, despite short-term hype cycles or narratives of stagnation. The underlying technology continues to advance at a historic pace.
  • Investors should look beyond the "AI bubble" narrative. Just as with the internet, the most valuable companies will be those that find real-world use cases and build sustainable businesses on top of the new technology.
  • The core infrastructure of AI, particularly GPUs from companies like NVIDIA (NVDA) and the cloud platforms that provide them, remains a central part of the investment theme as the demand for "compute" is shown to be nearly endless.

Coinbase (COIN)

  • CEO Brian Armstrong announced the launch of the "Everything Exchange," a major strategic expansion for Coinbase.
  • The platform is adding new asset classes beyond crypto, including:
    • Stock trading
    • Prediction markets (through a white-label partnership with Kalshi)
    • Simple derivatives
  • The strategy is to become the primary financial hub for their users, allowing them to "trade everything where their assets reside." This positions them to compete more directly with platforms like Robinhood.
  • Coinbase also launched Coinbase Advisor, an AI-powered tool to help users manage their portfolios, find opportunities, and improve their financial literacy.
  • The company is actively working with Washington to get clear market structure legislation passed for the crypto industry in 2026.

Takeaways

  • Coinbase is aggressively expanding beyond its crypto roots to become a comprehensive financial services platform. This could significantly increase its total addressable market and create new revenue streams.
  • The integration of AI through Coinbase Advisor and the addition of new, popular asset classes like prediction markets show the company is focused on innovation and user engagement to stay competitive.
  • Regulatory clarity remains a key catalyst (or risk) for the company. The potential passage of market structure legislation in 2026 would be a major positive development for COIN and the broader US crypto industry.

SpaceX (Private)

  • The company is rumored to be exploring an IPO at a massive $1.5 trillion valuation, with the goal of raising $30 billion.
  • A major challenge discussed for the IPO is the $1.47 trillion in existing stock held by employees and early investors. A standard 90-180 day lockup period is seen as risky, as it could lead to a massive sell-off once it expires.
  • Investment bankers are reportedly designing a "staggered lockup release" to manage this selling pressure over time, which would be a novel approach for such a large company.
  • The idea is to transition from the current system of limited, periodic liquidity events for private shareholders to a more structured, gradual public market entry.

Takeaways

  • A potential SpaceX IPO would be one of the largest in history. For future investors, the structure of the IPO, particularly the lockup agreement for insiders, will be a critical factor to watch for assessing post-IPO price stability.
  • The sheer scale of the company means that traditional IPO mechanics may not apply. A staggered lockup could become a new standard for mega-cap tech companies going public.

M&A Activity: Warner Bros. (WBD), Netflix (NFLX), Paramount (PARA)

  • The podcast discussed the ongoing M&A saga in the media industry.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) officially rejected Paramount's (PARA) takeover bid.
  • A major reason for the rejection was concern over the financing from Larry Ellison's revocable trust. Warner was worried that because the trust is revocable, the funds were not truly guaranteed, and they could be left with a multi-billion dollar breakup fee to Netflix (NFLX) if the Paramount deal fell through.
  • The discussion highlights the complexities of mega-deals, where the structure of the financing is just as important as the headline price.

Takeaways

  • The media landscape remains in a state of consolidation. The failure of the Paramount bid could make a deal between Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Netflix (NFLX) more likely.
  • This situation is a good lesson for investors in the importance of digging into the details of M&A deals. The source and reliability of financing can make or break an acquisition, creating significant risk and opportunity.

Medline (MDLN)

  • The medical supply company had the biggest IPO since Rivian in 2021, raising $6.3 billion.
  • The stock had a very successful debut, closing at $41 per share, a 41% increase from its $29 IPO price.
  • The success of the MDLN IPO is seen as a very positive sign for the broader IPO market, which has been choppy. It could help set the stage for other major companies like SpaceX and Anthropic to go public in 2026.

Takeaways

  • The strong performance of a large, non-hype IPO like Medline indicates that investor appetite for new public companies is returning.
  • This could be a leading indicator for a healthier IPO market in 2026, which would be beneficial for the entire venture capital and startup ecosystem by providing a clear path to liquidity.

Anduril Industries (Private) & AlphaTon Capital (ATON)

  • AlphaTon Capital (ATON), a publicly traded company, falsely announced a $30 million investment in the private defense tech firm Anduril.
  • Anduril's founder, Palmer Luckey, publicly refuted the claim, calling it a lie and stating he would not authorize the share transfer, effectively accusing ATON of attempting to defraud its investors.
  • ATON stock was noted to be trading at $0.69, down from a historical high of $280, highlighting its troubled history.
  • In separate, legitimate news, Anduril announced a partnership with Boeing (BA) to compete for a U.S. Army contract for a mid-range missile interceptor.

Takeaways

  • This serves as a stark warning about scams and misinformation in public markets. Investors should be extremely wary of announcements from micro-cap or penny-stock companies claiming partnerships with major private firms, and always seek confirmation from the more reputable party. ATON is a major red flag.
  • The partnership with Boeing (BA) is a significant vote of confidence in Anduril's technology and a bullish sign for its role in the future of the defense industry. It shows that Anduril is successfully moving from a disruptor to a key partner for established defense primes.

Domino's Pizza (DPZ)

  • Domino's was highlighted as the best-performing small-cap stock of the 2010s.
  • Its success was attributed not to having the best pizza, but to its massive investment in technology, specifically its app and the Domino's Pizza Tracker.
  • This focus on convenience created a powerful "physical mode advantage." By building a direct relationship with customers through its app, Domino's was able to drive scale, improve its brand, and dominate the market.
  • The company is currently valued at $15 billion.

Takeaways

  • This is a classic case study of how technology can create a durable competitive advantage, even in a traditional, physical-world business.
  • Investors can look for companies that are using technology not just as a feature, but as a core part of their strategy to disrupt an industry's value equation (e.g., quality, value, or convenience).

Worldcoin (WLD)

  • Worldcoin has partnered with the dating app Tinder to offer identity verification.
  • Users who verify with Worldcoin will receive a "World's Verified" badge on their Tinder profile.
  • This partnership addresses a growing problem in online dating: the proliferation of fake profiles, scams, and AI-generated imagery ("catfishing").

Takeaways

  • This is a major real-world use case for Worldcoin's identity protocol and a significant step toward mainstream adoption.
  • Success in a high-profile app like Tinder could validate Worldcoin's technology and lead to more partnerships, providing a bullish catalyst for the WLD token if the integration proves popular. The main risk is social backlash or low user adoption of the feature.

Chipotle (CMG)

  • Chipotle has introduced new high-protein cups priced at $3.82.
  • This is a low-cost, a la carte option for customers who just want a serving of chicken.
  • The podcast hosts were very positive about this, seeing it as a great option for health-conscious consumers or those looking for a simple protein snack.

Takeaways

  • While a small product launch, this shows Chipotle is continuing to innovate its menu to meet consumer trends, specifically the demand for high-protein, convenient food options.
  • This kind of smart, low-cost menu addition can help drive customer frequency and appeal to new customer segments, which is a positive for the brand's continued growth.
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Episode Description
(00:30) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (05:02) - OpenAI in talks at $750B (08:56) - WB Board Questions Paramount's Funding Stability (23:03) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (55:03) - Brian Armstrong and Tarek Mansour are the co-founders of Coinbase, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency platforms. Armstrong, a former Airbnb engineer, serves as CEO and has been a leading advocate for mainstream crypto adoption, while Mansour, Coinbase’s CTO, architected much of the company’s core infrastructure and security systems. (01:11:58) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions (01:44:16) - Simon Hørup Eskildsen, co-founder and CEO of turbopuffer—a serverless vector and full-text search platform—discusses the company's recent addition of Thrive Capital as an investor, emphasizing their preference for a concentrated cap table with long-term partners. He highlights the importance of customer satisfaction over fundraising figures, sharing a positive testimonial from Notion's co-founder, Akshay Kothari, about turbopuffer's impact on product development. Eskildsen also notes the company's growth to 22 employees and their focus on scaling infrastructure to handle increasing data demands in AI applications. (02:01:48) - 𝕏 Timeline Reactions TBPN.com is made possible by:  Ramp - https://ramp.com Figma - https://figma.com Vanta - https://vanta.com Linear - https://linear.app Eight Sleep - https://eightsleep.com/tbpn Wander - https://wander.com/tbpn Public - https://public.com AdQuick - https://adquick.com Bezel - https://getbezel.com  Numeral - https://www.numeralhq.com Attio - https://attio.com/tbpn Fin - https://fin.ai/tbpn Graphite - https://graphite.dev Restream - https://restream.io Profound - https://tryprofound.com Julius AI - https://julius.ai turbopuffer - https://turbopuffer.com Polymarket - https://polymarket.com/ fal - https://fal.ai Privy - https://www.privy.io Cognition - https://cognition.ai Gemini - https://gemini.google.com Follow TBPN:  https://TBPN.com https://x.com/tbpn https://open.spotify.com/show/2L6WMqY3GUPCGBD0dX6p00?si=674252d53acf4231 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/technology-brothers/id1772360235 https://www.youtube.com/@TBPNLive
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