
by Blockworks
94 episodes

Investors should prioritize Tokenized Treasuries and SEC-registered public securities like Superstate’s "Opening Bell" as the most proven entry points for institutional-grade blockchain adoption. For high-yield lending, favor "curator models" like Morpho or Maple, which offer clearer legal recourse and risk management than traditional decentralized pools. While Ethereum (ETH) remains the dominant settlement layer, institutional capital is gravitating toward the Canton Network due to its privacy features and backing from major firms like Goldman Sachs. Hyperliquid (HYPE) is a high-conviction play for on-chain equities and perpetuals, having successfully launched an S&P 500 product and scaled weekly volumes to over $15 billion. To capitalize on the emerging AI economy, look for infrastructure projects like Tempo that solve for agent identity and automated transaction execution.

Investors should prioritize Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as core holdings, as they have avoided the 60-90% drawdowns seen in the broader altcoin market. Treat most altcoins as short-term trading vehicles rather than long-term investments, focusing on high-conviction assets like Hyperliquid which are showing fundamental strength against BTC. The most significant growth vertical for the next 24 months is the intersection of AI and crypto; look for "agent-ready" protocols and DePIN projects with high lifetime value (LTV) to customer acquisition costs. Prioritize tokens with clear value capture mechanisms, such as the Uniswap (UNI) "fee switch," to ensure your interests are aligned with the project's revenue. Monitor regulatory shifts closely, as upcoming legislation may reclassify many DeFi tokens as tokenized equities, fundamentally changing how they accrue value for holders.

Investors seeking stable income should buy Pendle Principal Tokens (PT-sUSDE) to lock in fixed yields that frequently outperform variable market rates due to built-in hedging premiums. For those managing leveraged long positions on platforms like Aave, purchasing Yield Tokens (YT) serves as a precise liquid hedge against rising borrowing costs. Monitor the DeFi Yield Curve on Pendle as a leading indicator for Bitcoin (BTC); an upward-sloping curve (contango) has a nearly 100% historical probability of positive returns over the following 90 days. Conversely, be cautious if the "term spread" falls below -7%, as this downward slope (backwardation) typically precedes significant price drops for BTC. Utilizing sUSDE as collateral is highly recommended for on-chain active traders, as it offers high-quality backing with low principal variance and attractive risk-adjusted returns.

Investors should prioritize Bitcoin (BTC) as the core portfolio allocation, as it remains the primary institutional asset outperforming the broader crypto market. Be cautious of the general altcoin market, where token prices have dropped significantly due to high inflation and a lack of transparent financial reporting. Focus on protocols like BNB and Jito (JTO), which are leading a shift toward "On-chain Investor Relations" by providing standardized, public-company style data dashboards. Before buying any new tokens, verify the fully diluted valuation (FDV) and inflation schedules to ensure your investment isn't being diluted by a rapidly increasing supply. Favor projects that host "Investor Days" or provide real-time audited data, as professional transparency will be the key differentiator for winners over the next two years.

Current price levels for Bitcoin (BTC) represent a strategic opportunity to Dollar Cost Average (DCA), as the asset has already depreciated 40-60% from previous highs and "front-ran" recent macro volatility. Investors should exercise extreme caution with Pump.fun (PUMP) ahead of a massive 20% token unlock on July 12th, which creates significant sell pressure as early investors look to lock in profits at current valuations. Hyperliquid (HYPE) is emerging as a high-conviction play for on-chain commodity trading, with Crude Oil and Silver now ranking among its most traded assets. While Solana (SOL) faces internal friction between its Foundation and the Jupiter (JUP) ecosystem, institutional backing from Jump Crypto and the development of Fire Dancer remain core pillars for long-term holders. Across all sectors, prioritize projects with transparent treasury management and high liquidity to capitalize on further market downsides.

Investors should monitor Across Protocol (ACX) as it transitions from a DAO to a U.S. C-Corp, offering token holders a choice between legal equity or a buyout floor of $0.04375. This restructuring is a high-conviction signal of a potential acquisition by major fintech players like Stripe, making ACX a unique play on the convergence of DeFi and traditional finance. In the meme coin sector, Pump.fun remains the dominant "category king" with $28 million in monthly revenue, and its upcoming expansion to the Base and Ethereum networks positions it to capture even more market share from smaller competitors. When trading high-liquidity assets like AAVE, investors must avoid mobile "market swaps" and instead use OTC desks or aggregators with strict slippage settings to prevent catastrophic execution errors. Focus your portfolio on established category leaders like Hyperliquid for perpetuals and Jupiter for Solana trading, as the market is increasingly punishing clones and "vampire attack" protocols.

For long-term investors, the most stable strategy is to Dollar Cost Average (DCA) into Bitcoin (BTC), treating any price dips toward the $58,000 level as high-conviction buying opportunities. Hyperliquid (HYPE) is a top growth play as it evolves into a 24/7 hub for trading traditional commodities like Crude Oil and Silver alongside crypto. Monitor the Canton Network as a major institutional competitor to Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), as banks may prefer its private consortium model for global settlement. Investors should watch for a shift in blockchain value from "gas fees" to "listing fees," favoring platforms that act as the primary back-end for traditional finance. To hedge against geopolitical instability, utilize on-chain perpetual platforms like Hyperliquid or Ostium to trade macro assets when traditional markets are closed.

Institutional adoption has reached an inflection point, with BlackRock expected to tokenize its entire suite of ETFs within the next 12 months. Investors should focus on the "generational upgrade" of financial infrastructure by looking at Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term allocation, with strong price support currently identified around the $60,000 level. While institutional "covered call" strategies may dampen short-term volatility, the long-term "Digital Gold" thesis remains intact as traditional finance leads price formation. In the DeFi sector, high-conviction protocols like Aave (AAVE) and Uniswap (UNI) are emerging as structural solutions for instant lending and settlement. Keep a close watch on Morpho, which is partnering with Apollo Global Management to move traditional credit markets onto decentralized rails.

Investors should consider a bullish position on Block Inc. (SQ) as the company pivots toward extreme efficiency, targeting a fourfold increase in profit per employee through AI integration and a 40% workforce reduction. Monitor the broader fintech and software sectors for similar "efficiency-led" rallies, as the market is currently rewarding aggressive cost-cutting over growth-at-all-costs. While OpenAI is targeting a $1 trillion+ IPO within 24 months, retail investors should exercise extreme caution with private secondary markets due to high fees and thin margins at the current $730 billion valuation. In the crypto space, shift focus from consumer tokens to institutional "back-end" infrastructure like the Canton Network, which is gaining traction for instant financial settlement. Watch for major policy and adoption signals from BlackRock, Coinbase, and Robinhood during the Digital Asset Summit in late March.

Solana (SOL) is a compelling investment theme as it undergoes major infrastructure upgrades to solidify its position as the premier blockchain for trading applications. A key way to gain exposure is through Jito (JTO), a critical project whose success is directly tied to Solana's growth. A major catalyst for JTO is the potential launch of a US-based Exchange Traded Product (ETP) for its liquid staking token, JitoSOL, which could drive significant institutional investment. The project is actively working with major asset managers like VanEck on this ETP initiative. This institutional push, combined with its core role in improving Solana's network, positions the JTO token for potential long-term growth.

Recent developments to improve investor reporting are fundamentally bullish for the Solana (SOL) ecosystem, potentially attracting more institutional capital. Venture capital trends suggest investors should watch emerging themes like prediction markets and crypto x AI for future growth opportunities. The prediction market sector in particular has been significantly de-risked by recent CFTC actions, creating a clearer path to legitimacy in the U.S. While Apollo Global's investment provides a strong vote of confidence, MORPHO remains a speculative bet on future network growth as it currently generates no revenue. Extreme caution is advised with Venice (VVV), as its complex token model and recent price surge suggest it is a high-risk asset to avoid.

A key governance vote for Aave (AAVE) could significantly boost its value by directing all future product revenue directly to token holders. This aligns with Aave's strategic shift into a broader fintech platform, aiming to offer innovative products like borrowing against stocks. Another key opportunity is LayerZero (ZRO), which is launching its own blockchain to become a central hub for cross-chain asset issuance. A major bullish signal for ZRO is the alleged investment from trading giant Citadel, indicating serious institutional interest in its technology. The success of this strategy hinges on the adoption of the new Zero Chain as a foundational layer for omnichain assets.


Monitor the sUSDe term structure on Pendle as a key sentiment indicator for the crypto market, viewable on the Blockworks Research dashboard. A state of steep backwardation, where near-term yields are significantly higher than long-term ones, has historically been a bearish signal for Bitcoin over the following 90-120 days, suggesting a time for caution. Conversely, a state of contango suggests a more bullish outlook and may present a favorable environment for considering new long positions in BTC. Traders with leveraged long positions can buy the sUSDe Yield Token (YT) on Pendle as a direct hedge against rising funding costs. Finally, keep an eye on the emerging platform Boros, which could become a more capital-efficient alternative for interest rate trading within the next one to two years.

Focus on the emerging theme of Tokenized Real World Assets (RWAs), which is identified as a major growth area for DeFi with a potential tipping point in 2026. Look for protocols integrating private credit, such as Apollo's ACRED fund, which offers a potential 9-10% yield by bringing traditional financial assets on-chain. Consider protocols like Maple and Morpho as they are actively building on this trend to offer more diversified and sustainable yield products. When evaluating DeFi lending, prioritize the track record and risk management of the specific vault curator over just the advertised APY. Continue to view BTC and ETH as foundational assets, as their utility as top-tier collateral and for future restaking products provides a strong long-term demand driver.

Consider exposure to commodities like silver and copper, which are seeing strong capital inflows and breaking out of multi-year price consolidations. For a direct crypto play, Hyperliquid (HYPE) may be forming a price bottom around $20 now that a major entity has finished selling its position. The platform's growth is fueled by its popular markets for real-world assets, with silver trading volume recently surpassing even Ethereum. Conversely, be cautious with newly public BitGo (BITGO) due to its slowing growth and over-reliance on cyclical staking revenue from the SUI token. The most significant risk for BITGO is a massive share unlock in 180 days, which could create extreme selling pressure on the stock.

The recent tokenomics shift to S-Pendle is a major bullish catalyst, as 80% of protocol revenue will now be used to buy back PENDLE tokens from the open market. This change makes PENDLE more accessible to institutional funds and directly links the token's value to the protocol's success. Key growth drivers for this revenue include the expansion of its Boros product into new markets like NVIDIA perps and a strategic focus on the Real World Assets (RWA) theme. Furthermore, the team is targeting a "meaningful" expansion to the Solana ecosystem this year, providing another potential catalyst. Accumulating PENDLE is a high-conviction trade based on these clear growth vectors and the new direct value accrual mechanism.

The acquisition of trading bot Padre is a significant positive for Pump.fun (PUMP), as it strengthens its business model by capturing post-launch trading revenue. Investors should monitor the upcoming global stress test for MegaETH, as its ability to hit high transaction targets and attract a unique developer ecosystem will be a major catalyst. In the long term, be cautious on crypto-native stock perpetual exchanges like Hyperliquid, as the NYSE's planned on-chain trading platform could become a major competitor within 2-5 years. The primary investment opportunity from this tokenization trend may be in the underlying infrastructure, such as Ethereum rollups, that will settle these assets. Finally, avoid speculating on most trading bot tokens, as the most profitable platforms like Axiom are remaining private and not sharing revenue with token holders.

Consider an entry into Lighter (LIT) as intense selling pressure may be exhausted, with over 82% of airdrop recipients having already sold their tokens. The bullish case for LIT is a bet on its retail-focused strategy, driven by its new mobile app and significant token buybacks. Conversely, investors should be cautious with Kaito (KAITO) following its pivot to a marketing agency model and a significant price drop. Concerns about KAITO's high valuation and potential insider activity before the announcement present major red flags for the project. Lastly, be extremely wary of "risk-free" yield strategies on prediction markets like Polymarket, as these are high-risk gambling products, not safe investments.

Consider the HYPE token, as Hyperliquid's shift to a user-facing platform and the launch of its BLP lending feature are expected to significantly boost protocol revenue. To position for a potential airdrop, consider using the Felix Protocol, a key application on Hyperliquid that does not yet have a token. Watch for the successful listing of major spot assets like XRP or BNB on Hyperliquid, as this could be a major growth catalyst. The emerging Real-World Assets (RWAs) theme is a key area to monitor, with protocols like Felix aiming to bring tokenized stocks on-chain. Finally, the HYPE token benefits from a strong buyback mechanism, directly linking the platform's revenue growth to the token's value.