
by Blockworks
79 episodes

Consider exposure to commodities like silver and copper, which are seeing strong capital inflows and breaking out of multi-year price consolidations. For a direct crypto play, Hyperliquid (HYPE) may be forming a price bottom around $20 now that a major entity has finished selling its position. The platform's growth is fueled by its popular markets for real-world assets, with silver trading volume recently surpassing even Ethereum. Conversely, be cautious with newly public BitGo (BITGO) due to its slowing growth and over-reliance on cyclical staking revenue from the SUI token. The most significant risk for BITGO is a massive share unlock in 180 days, which could create extreme selling pressure on the stock.

The recent tokenomics shift to S-Pendle is a major bullish catalyst, as 80% of protocol revenue will now be used to buy back PENDLE tokens from the open market. This change makes PENDLE more accessible to institutional funds and directly links the token's value to the protocol's success. Key growth drivers for this revenue include the expansion of its Boros product into new markets like NVIDIA perps and a strategic focus on the Real World Assets (RWA) theme. Furthermore, the team is targeting a "meaningful" expansion to the Solana ecosystem this year, providing another potential catalyst. Accumulating PENDLE is a high-conviction trade based on these clear growth vectors and the new direct value accrual mechanism.

The acquisition of trading bot Padre is a significant positive for Pump.fun (PUMP), as it strengthens its business model by capturing post-launch trading revenue. Investors should monitor the upcoming global stress test for MegaETH, as its ability to hit high transaction targets and attract a unique developer ecosystem will be a major catalyst. In the long term, be cautious on crypto-native stock perpetual exchanges like Hyperliquid, as the NYSE's planned on-chain trading platform could become a major competitor within 2-5 years. The primary investment opportunity from this tokenization trend may be in the underlying infrastructure, such as Ethereum rollups, that will settle these assets. Finally, avoid speculating on most trading bot tokens, as the most profitable platforms like Axiom are remaining private and not sharing revenue with token holders.

Consider an entry into Lighter (LIT) as intense selling pressure may be exhausted, with over 82% of airdrop recipients having already sold their tokens. The bullish case for LIT is a bet on its retail-focused strategy, driven by its new mobile app and significant token buybacks. Conversely, investors should be cautious with Kaito (KAITO) following its pivot to a marketing agency model and a significant price drop. Concerns about KAITO's high valuation and potential insider activity before the announcement present major red flags for the project. Lastly, be extremely wary of "risk-free" yield strategies on prediction markets like Polymarket, as these are high-risk gambling products, not safe investments.

Consider the HYPE token, as Hyperliquid's shift to a user-facing platform and the launch of its BLP lending feature are expected to significantly boost protocol revenue. To position for a potential airdrop, consider using the Felix Protocol, a key application on Hyperliquid that does not yet have a token. Watch for the successful listing of major spot assets like XRP or BNB on Hyperliquid, as this could be a major growth catalyst. The emerging Real-World Assets (RWAs) theme is a key area to monitor, with protocols like Felix aiming to bring tokenized stocks on-chain. Finally, the HYPE token benefits from a strong buyback mechanism, directly linking the platform's revenue growth to the token's value.

A strong bullish case is presented for Aerodrome (AERO) and Velodrome (VELO), which are merging into a new protocol called Arrow. The primary catalyst is the Metadex 0.3 upgrade, expected in Q2, which is projected to significantly increase protocol revenue and token value. This upgrade positions Arrow to directly compete with Uniswap (UNI) on Ethereum by offering superior yields to liquidity providers. Conversely, a bearish outlook is suggested for Uniswap (UNI), as its upcoming fee switch is expected to reduce liquidity provider rewards, making it vulnerable to this competition. Investors should monitor liquidity flows between the protocols following the Q2 upgrade, as this dynamic presents a potential long AERO / short UNI pair trade opportunity.

Consider a long-term investment in Hyperliquid (HYPE), a platform aiming to disrupt traditional finance with a speculative price target of several thousand dollars. A potential future token burn of 40% of the supply serves as a major bullish catalyst to monitor for HYPE. For a bet on the broader Hyperliquid ecosystem, consider Kinetic (KNTQ), whose value is designed to capture all revenue from its upcoming suite of products. The primary catalyst for KNTQ is the launch of its "markets" exchange, which will focus on trading real-world assets like equities and commodities. For a higher-risk, direct-revenue play, KMHYPE offers holders 10% of all trading revenue from the new "markets" exchange.

The structural conflict between Aave Labs and the Aave DAO presents a significant risk for AAVE token holders, making it a high-risk investment until this is resolved. Conversely, Solana (SOL) is a strategic long-term holding if it continues to win high-profile token launches and successfully builds out its derivatives ecosystem. The current market favors investing in applications with clear user adoption over general-purpose infrastructure tokens. Monitor the development of native stablecoins on blockchains, as this is emerging as a key revenue strategy for entire ecosystems. Before investing, always verify that a project's core team incentives are aligned with its token to avoid value-destructive conflicts.

Equity perpetuals represent a massive new investment theme, offering a simpler way for traders to get leveraged exposure to stocks compared to complex options. Consider Hyperliquid (HYPE) as a direct investment into this trend, as it is the dominant platform capturing over 95% of the current market volume. The HYPE token is designed for value accrual, with nearly all protocol revenue being used to buy back and burn tokens. The bull case is significant, as capturing just 0.5% of the traditional equity market could generate $2 billion in annualized revenue for the protocol. Separately, monitor the Solana ecosystem, as the successful launch of perpetuals by projects like Phoenix could be a major catalyst for SOL.

Watch for the upcoming token launch of Lighter by year-end, a key competitor in the perpetuals space with a potential valuation of $2.5 to $3 billion. When its tokenomics are released, scrutinize them to ensure value accrues to the public token and not just private investors. Consider accumulating Bitcoin (BTC) for the long term, as major entities like MicroStrategy continue to buy significant amounts while retail interest is low. Uniswap's (UNI) new launchpad business is a potential catalyst, so monitor the performance of its initial launches like Aztec. Finally, adjust your token launch strategy from short-term flips to longer-term holds of 6-12 months, as quick profits are becoming rare.

Focus on application tokens with clear revenue-sharing models, such as Hyperliquid and MetaDAO, which are setting a new standard by directing profits to token holders. The investment case for Lido (LDO) is considered weak due to a poor core business and token inflation, with analysts expecting its price to continue declining. Exercise extreme caution with the Humidify (WET) token, as it is viewed as an extractive asset that does not provide a claim on the firm's profitable trading business. Be skeptical of high valuations in the prediction markets sector, as their current use is primarily sports gambling, making their valuations appear stretched. Treat major assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as macro bets on the crypto market, better suited for trading cycles than long-term holding.

Consider investing in leading decentralized exchange protocols like Uniswap (UNI) and Jupiter (JUP) to gain exposure to their explosive growth in market share. A major upcoming trend is the proliferation of new stablecoins, making the interoperability infrastructure that connects them a key "picks and shovels" investment theme. Look for emerging opportunities in non-USD stablecoins and the development of on-chain foreign exchange (FX) markets, which represent a massive untapped area for growth. Treat Bitcoin (BTC) as a cyclical commodity and be aware of potential selling pressure from large funds, which could create headwinds despite strong ETF inflows. For long-term investments, prioritize crypto projects that generate tangible revenue, as fundamentals are expected to become increasingly important for valuation.

An investment in the HYPE token is a direct bet on the growth of the Hyperliquid ecosystem, a growing hub for on-chain derivatives. Avoid trading pre-IPO stock perpetuals, such as for OpenAI, as they are considered extremely high-risk and prone to manipulation due to a lack of reliable pricing. The next major opportunity may be in crypto options, which solve the key problems of liquidation risk and stress associated with perpetual futures trading. Watch for projects like Euphoria, which aims to simplify options trading for a broader audience by abstracting away its complexity. Another key project is Bounce, which offers leveraged tokens on Hyperliquid designed to prevent liquidation from short-term price swings.

Consider avoiding Berachain (BERA) due to significant governance risks revealed by a special refund deal granted to its lead investor, creating an unfair environment. Exercise caution with new high-valuation blockchains like Monad (MON), as its $2.5 billion launch price creates significant selling pressure from early investors. Instead, seek opportunities in projects that launch with a low public valuation, which allows for greater upside potential. Projects like Avicii (VIC) and MetaDAO (META) are highlighted as examples of successful launches with fairer token distribution and lower initial valuations. For established assets like Ethereum (ETH), focus on trading major narratives such as ETF approvals, as these are the primary drivers of price action over traditional fundamentals.

The launch of EigenZero is a significant upgrade for LayerZero (ZRO), introducing a new security model backed by slashable tokens to protect cross-chain transactions. This enhanced security is designed to attract large asset issuers like PayPal (PYUSD) and Circle (USDC), potentially driving significant value to the ecosystem. For investors seeking immediate yield, the Aptos (APT) ecosystem is emerging as a hub for Bitcoin DeFi, with nearly $400 million in assets already on-chain. Bitcoin holders can explore earning yield on their assets through protocols on Aptos without the typical high fees or bridge risks. This market trend favors projects with verifiable financial security, making LayerZero and the underlying EigenLayer technology prime assets to watch.

Investing in the Base ecosystem is a high-conviction theme with a potential 10x return over the next five years due to its deep integration with Coinbase. For a core portfolio holding, consider accumulating Bitcoin (BTC) or using an ETF like IBIT for improved security and tax efficiency. Hyperliquid (HYPE) presents a compelling investment due to its strong business model that captures revenue from projects built on its platform. Consider buying the "blue-chip" DeFi asset Aave (AAVE) during significant market downturns for a long-term position. Finally, exercise extreme caution with MicroStrategy (MSTR), as its falling price relative to its net assets is a major red flag.

Keep an eye on Project Zero (P0), a fast-growing prime brokerage on Solana, which will announce its token launch details at the upcoming Breakpoint conference. The investment case for Solana (SOL) is shifting towards a value play, with its valuation becoming more attractive relative to its growing protocol and application revenue. Look for protocols that use revenue for token buybacks, as this is a strong bullish signal; for example, Pump.fun (PUMP) has already repurchased 11% of its supply. Ethena (ENA) represents a significant long-term growth opportunity as it strategically expands to compete with major stablecoin issuers like Circle. For those interested in Bitcoin DeFi, Aptos (APT) is emerging as a key ecosystem for earning yield on BTC.

Consider bridging assets to the Katana L2 before the end of November to capture boosted yield from its current incentive campaigns. The primary investment thesis for Hyperliquid (HYPE) centers on the potential launch of its internal borrowing and lending protocol, BLP, which is a key catalyst to watch for token value appreciation. For a "picks and shovels" play on the Hyperliquid ecosystem, Kinetic (KNTC) is highlighted as a dominant liquid staking solution with a strong market position. For more conservative DeFi users, Aave (AAVE) is the recommended choice for lending blue-chip assets like ETH and BTC, prioritizing capital preservation. Finally, keep an eye on protocols like Unit that are successfully monetizing the listing of new spot markets on Hyperliquid, a key growth area for the exchange.

Consider the high-risk, high-reward token ORE, which is capitalizing on the on-chain gambling narrative and has seen explosive growth. Analysts are also very bullish on Zcash (ZEC) due to its strong performance and a potential catalyst from integration with the Solana ecosystem. Watch for the launch of the Monad blockchain and participate in its early rewards program by using new apps to potentially qualify for a future airdrop. Bitcoin holders seeking yield can explore the growing Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem on Aptos (APT), which offers opportunities to earn on your BTC. Finally, be extremely cautious with DeFi protocols offering unusually high yields, as these often carry hidden risks of total loss.

Institutional adoption is driving a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin, which is increasingly seen as a legitimate portfolio asset. For investors seeking a simpler and potentially more tax-efficient way to gain exposure, consider Bitcoin ETFs like IBIT as an alternative to holding the coin directly. While the asset is maturing, the days of extreme, rapid gains are likely over, suggesting more stable but slower growth ahead. Be aware that Bitcoin remains correlated to traditional markets, and a significant downturn like a 10% drop in the S&P 500 could trigger a major price pullback. High-yield opportunities in DeFi should be approached with extreme caution, as the risk of exploits remains high even in established protocols.