
by Blockworks
108 episodes

For long-term investors, the most stable strategy is to Dollar Cost Average (DCA) into Bitcoin (BTC), treating any price dips toward the $58,000 level as high-conviction buying opportunities. Hyperliquid (HYPE) is a top growth play as it evolves into a 24/7 hub for trading traditional commodities like Crude Oil and Silver alongside crypto. Monitor the Canton Network as a major institutional competitor to Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), as banks may prefer its private consortium model for global settlement. Investors should watch for a shift in blockchain value from "gas fees" to "listing fees," favoring platforms that act as the primary back-end for traditional finance. To hedge against geopolitical instability, utilize on-chain perpetual platforms like Hyperliquid or Ostium to trade macro assets when traditional markets are closed.

Institutional adoption has reached an inflection point, with BlackRock expected to tokenize its entire suite of ETFs within the next 12 months. Investors should focus on the "generational upgrade" of financial infrastructure by looking at Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term allocation, with strong price support currently identified around the $60,000 level. While institutional "covered call" strategies may dampen short-term volatility, the long-term "Digital Gold" thesis remains intact as traditional finance leads price formation. In the DeFi sector, high-conviction protocols like Aave (AAVE) and Uniswap (UNI) are emerging as structural solutions for instant lending and settlement. Keep a close watch on Morpho, which is partnering with Apollo Global Management to move traditional credit markets onto decentralized rails.

Investors should consider a bullish position on Block Inc. (SQ) as the company pivots toward extreme efficiency, targeting a fourfold increase in profit per employee through AI integration and a 40% workforce reduction. Monitor the broader fintech and software sectors for similar "efficiency-led" rallies, as the market is currently rewarding aggressive cost-cutting over growth-at-all-costs. While OpenAI is targeting a $1 trillion+ IPO within 24 months, retail investors should exercise extreme caution with private secondary markets due to high fees and thin margins at the current $730 billion valuation. In the crypto space, shift focus from consumer tokens to institutional "back-end" infrastructure like the Canton Network, which is gaining traction for instant financial settlement. Watch for major policy and adoption signals from BlackRock, Coinbase, and Robinhood during the Digital Asset Summit in late March.

Solana (SOL) is a compelling investment theme as it undergoes major infrastructure upgrades to solidify its position as the premier blockchain for trading applications. A key way to gain exposure is through Jito (JTO), a critical project whose success is directly tied to Solana's growth. A major catalyst for JTO is the potential launch of a US-based Exchange Traded Product (ETP) for its liquid staking token, JitoSOL, which could drive significant institutional investment. The project is actively working with major asset managers like VanEck on this ETP initiative. This institutional push, combined with its core role in improving Solana's network, positions the JTO token for potential long-term growth.

Recent developments to improve investor reporting are fundamentally bullish for the Solana (SOL) ecosystem, potentially attracting more institutional capital. Venture capital trends suggest investors should watch emerging themes like prediction markets and crypto x AI for future growth opportunities. The prediction market sector in particular has been significantly de-risked by recent CFTC actions, creating a clearer path to legitimacy in the U.S. While Apollo Global's investment provides a strong vote of confidence, MORPHO remains a speculative bet on future network growth as it currently generates no revenue. Extreme caution is advised with Venice (VVV), as its complex token model and recent price surge suggest it is a high-risk asset to avoid.

A key governance vote for Aave (AAVE) could significantly boost its value by directing all future product revenue directly to token holders. This aligns with Aave's strategic shift into a broader fintech platform, aiming to offer innovative products like borrowing against stocks. Another key opportunity is LayerZero (ZRO), which is launching its own blockchain to become a central hub for cross-chain asset issuance. A major bullish signal for ZRO is the alleged investment from trading giant Citadel, indicating serious institutional interest in its technology. The success of this strategy hinges on the adoption of the new Zero Chain as a foundational layer for omnichain assets.


Monitor the sUSDe term structure on Pendle as a key sentiment indicator for the crypto market, viewable on the Blockworks Research dashboard. A state of steep backwardation, where near-term yields are significantly higher than long-term ones, has historically been a bearish signal for Bitcoin over the following 90-120 days, suggesting a time for caution. Conversely, a state of contango suggests a more bullish outlook and may present a favorable environment for considering new long positions in BTC. Traders with leveraged long positions can buy the sUSDe Yield Token (YT) on Pendle as a direct hedge against rising funding costs. Finally, keep an eye on the emerging platform Boros, which could become a more capital-efficient alternative for interest rate trading within the next one to two years.

Focus on the emerging theme of Tokenized Real World Assets (RWAs), which is identified as a major growth area for DeFi with a potential tipping point in 2026. Look for protocols integrating private credit, such as Apollo's ACRED fund, which offers a potential 9-10% yield by bringing traditional financial assets on-chain. Consider protocols like Maple and Morpho as they are actively building on this trend to offer more diversified and sustainable yield products. When evaluating DeFi lending, prioritize the track record and risk management of the specific vault curator over just the advertised APY. Continue to view BTC and ETH as foundational assets, as their utility as top-tier collateral and for future restaking products provides a strong long-term demand driver.

Consider exposure to commodities like silver and copper, which are seeing strong capital inflows and breaking out of multi-year price consolidations. For a direct crypto play, Hyperliquid (HYPE) may be forming a price bottom around $20 now that a major entity has finished selling its position. The platform's growth is fueled by its popular markets for real-world assets, with silver trading volume recently surpassing even Ethereum. Conversely, be cautious with newly public BitGo (BITGO) due to its slowing growth and over-reliance on cyclical staking revenue from the SUI token. The most significant risk for BITGO is a massive share unlock in 180 days, which could create extreme selling pressure on the stock.

The recent tokenomics shift to S-Pendle is a major bullish catalyst, as 80% of protocol revenue will now be used to buy back PENDLE tokens from the open market. This change makes PENDLE more accessible to institutional funds and directly links the token's value to the protocol's success. Key growth drivers for this revenue include the expansion of its Boros product into new markets like NVIDIA perps and a strategic focus on the Real World Assets (RWA) theme. Furthermore, the team is targeting a "meaningful" expansion to the Solana ecosystem this year, providing another potential catalyst. Accumulating PENDLE is a high-conviction trade based on these clear growth vectors and the new direct value accrual mechanism.

The acquisition of trading bot Padre is a significant positive for Pump.fun (PUMP), as it strengthens its business model by capturing post-launch trading revenue. Investors should monitor the upcoming global stress test for MegaETH, as its ability to hit high transaction targets and attract a unique developer ecosystem will be a major catalyst. In the long term, be cautious on crypto-native stock perpetual exchanges like Hyperliquid, as the NYSE's planned on-chain trading platform could become a major competitor within 2-5 years. The primary investment opportunity from this tokenization trend may be in the underlying infrastructure, such as Ethereum rollups, that will settle these assets. Finally, avoid speculating on most trading bot tokens, as the most profitable platforms like Axiom are remaining private and not sharing revenue with token holders.

Consider an entry into Lighter (LIT) as intense selling pressure may be exhausted, with over 82% of airdrop recipients having already sold their tokens. The bullish case for LIT is a bet on its retail-focused strategy, driven by its new mobile app and significant token buybacks. Conversely, investors should be cautious with Kaito (KAITO) following its pivot to a marketing agency model and a significant price drop. Concerns about KAITO's high valuation and potential insider activity before the announcement present major red flags for the project. Lastly, be extremely wary of "risk-free" yield strategies on prediction markets like Polymarket, as these are high-risk gambling products, not safe investments.

Consider the HYPE token, as Hyperliquid's shift to a user-facing platform and the launch of its BLP lending feature are expected to significantly boost protocol revenue. To position for a potential airdrop, consider using the Felix Protocol, a key application on Hyperliquid that does not yet have a token. Watch for the successful listing of major spot assets like XRP or BNB on Hyperliquid, as this could be a major growth catalyst. The emerging Real-World Assets (RWAs) theme is a key area to monitor, with protocols like Felix aiming to bring tokenized stocks on-chain. Finally, the HYPE token benefits from a strong buyback mechanism, directly linking the platform's revenue growth to the token's value.

A strong bullish case is presented for Aerodrome (AERO) and Velodrome (VELO), which are merging into a new protocol called Arrow. The primary catalyst is the Metadex 0.3 upgrade, expected in Q2, which is projected to significantly increase protocol revenue and token value. This upgrade positions Arrow to directly compete with Uniswap (UNI) on Ethereum by offering superior yields to liquidity providers. Conversely, a bearish outlook is suggested for Uniswap (UNI), as its upcoming fee switch is expected to reduce liquidity provider rewards, making it vulnerable to this competition. Investors should monitor liquidity flows between the protocols following the Q2 upgrade, as this dynamic presents a potential long AERO / short UNI pair trade opportunity.

Consider a long-term investment in Hyperliquid (HYPE), a platform aiming to disrupt traditional finance with a speculative price target of several thousand dollars. A potential future token burn of 40% of the supply serves as a major bullish catalyst to monitor for HYPE. For a bet on the broader Hyperliquid ecosystem, consider Kinetic (KNTQ), whose value is designed to capture all revenue from its upcoming suite of products. The primary catalyst for KNTQ is the launch of its "markets" exchange, which will focus on trading real-world assets like equities and commodities. For a higher-risk, direct-revenue play, KMHYPE offers holders 10% of all trading revenue from the new "markets" exchange.

The structural conflict between Aave Labs and the Aave DAO presents a significant risk for AAVE token holders, making it a high-risk investment until this is resolved. Conversely, Solana (SOL) is a strategic long-term holding if it continues to win high-profile token launches and successfully builds out its derivatives ecosystem. The current market favors investing in applications with clear user adoption over general-purpose infrastructure tokens. Monitor the development of native stablecoins on blockchains, as this is emerging as a key revenue strategy for entire ecosystems. Before investing, always verify that a project's core team incentives are aligned with its token to avoid value-destructive conflicts.

Equity perpetuals represent a massive new investment theme, offering a simpler way for traders to get leveraged exposure to stocks compared to complex options. Consider Hyperliquid (HYPE) as a direct investment into this trend, as it is the dominant platform capturing over 95% of the current market volume. The HYPE token is designed for value accrual, with nearly all protocol revenue being used to buy back and burn tokens. The bull case is significant, as capturing just 0.5% of the traditional equity market could generate $2 billion in annualized revenue for the protocol. Separately, monitor the Solana ecosystem, as the successful launch of perpetuals by projects like Phoenix could be a major catalyst for SOL.

Watch for the upcoming token launch of Lighter by year-end, a key competitor in the perpetuals space with a potential valuation of $2.5 to $3 billion. When its tokenomics are released, scrutinize them to ensure value accrues to the public token and not just private investors. Consider accumulating Bitcoin (BTC) for the long term, as major entities like MicroStrategy continue to buy significant amounts while retail interest is low. Uniswap's (UNI) new launchpad business is a potential catalyst, so monitor the performance of its initial launches like Aztec. Finally, adjust your token launch strategy from short-term flips to longer-term holds of 6-12 months, as quick profits are becoming rare.

Focus on application tokens with clear revenue-sharing models, such as Hyperliquid and MetaDAO, which are setting a new standard by directing profits to token holders. The investment case for Lido (LDO) is considered weak due to a poor core business and token inflation, with analysts expecting its price to continue declining. Exercise extreme caution with the Humidify (WET) token, as it is viewed as an extractive asset that does not provide a claim on the firm's profitable trading business. Be skeptical of high valuations in the prediction markets sector, as their current use is primarily sports gambling, making their valuations appear stretched. Treat major assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as macro bets on the crypto market, better suited for trading cycles than long-term holding.