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threadguy

by @notthreadguy

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Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.
Ask about threadguyAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

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851 posts
MARKET OPEN: SEC Legalizes CRYPTO, NVDA Buybacks Announced, Dario, Trump & the RED WEDDING
  • Consider NVIDIA (NVDA) for a potential near-term trade: its expanded buyback authorization is a positive catalyst, but rising yields and semiconductor weakness remain risks; no price target was provided.
  • Research Live Nation (LYV) for direct exposure to strong concert demand: quarterly revenue rose 9%, concert sales 8%, and attendance reached a record 49 million, though no valuation or target was given.
  • Monitor NEAR and Zcash (ZEC) for potential ETF-related developments, but treat filings and speculation as uncertain rather than confirmed catalysts.
  • Wait for Pump.fun (PUMP) revenue to show a sustained recovery before considering re-entry; one strong day does not establish a durable rebound.
do women know the diamond market went to zero?

Avoid natural diamonds as investments: prices remain far below past peaks, and resale value is uncertain; buy them for personal enjoyment, not expected returns. For lower-cost jewelry, compare certified lab-grown diamonds with natural stones, but don’t treat lab-grown producers as an investment opportunity based on this discussion. The digital-asset thesis favors verifiable ownership, with CryptoPunks cited as an example, but verify what a token represents and assess demand beyond claims of scarcity. Be cautious with Solana news coins and collectible NFTs: copycats, scams, and reputational damage can undermine scarcity and value.

President Xi Mogs, Crypto Predictions, and Yields Pump
  • Consider Microsoft (MSFT) for renewed AI-trade momentum; it was up about 2%, though no price target or catalyst was provided.
  • Micron (MU) and memory/DRAM stocks are attracting trader interest, but the discussion offered no target or company-specific investment case.
  • Treat Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term store-of-value thesis, not a short-term trade signal; it was around $84,000 and remains sensitive to rates and policy.
  • Zcash (ZEC) and Monero (XMR) offer speculative privacy exposure, but weigh potential regulatory restrictions and exchange delistings against the thesis.
  • For Bitcoin exposure, consider buying BTC directly rather than Strategy (MSTR); the speaker viewed MSTR as less compelling when Bitcoin ETFs are available.
MARKET OPEN: Crypto’s NEXT LEG UP, Scott “THE HOUSE” Bessent is in TROUBLE, GUEST CALL-INS TODAY
  • Treat Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term store-of-value position, but expect near-term volatility as yields and monetary-policy expectations shift; $84,000 was a discussion-time snapshot, not a target.
  • Zcash (ZEC) offers a privacy-driven opportunity, but regulatory and exchange-access risks are substantial; if holding a large or leveraged position, consider trimming to lock in gains and preserve flexibility.
  • Watch Micron (MU) and memory stocks for continued strength tied to DRAM demand, while recognizing that rising memory prices and uncertain inflation could undermine the trade.
  • For Ethereum (ETH) and digital-asset treasury companies, verify that any discount to asset value is meaningful and sustainable; compare Bitcoin treasury shares such as Strategy (MSTR) with buying Bitcoin directly.
  • Treat AI tokens, social-trading platforms, meme coins, and prediction-market tokens as speculative: the discussion provides no confirmed picks or dependable price targets.
Crypto Options Are Having Their Growth Spurt - Koolkrypto
  • For a 6–12-month bullish crypto outlook, consider BTC and ETH exposure sized to withstand potential 10–30% drawdowns; near-term setbacks remain possible.
  • If expressing a bullish ETH view, the discussed $2,000–$2,400 or $5,000–$7,000 call spreads cap losses at the premium paid, but can expire worthless.
  • Derive is a speculative growth opportunity if on-chain options adoption accelerates; track trading volume, users, and revenue, as no price target was provided.
  • The speaker favored a relative-value long AERO / short UNI trade, but the thesis depends on Aerodrome’s fee economics and execution improving versus Uniswap.
MARKET OPEN: The FAILED AI EXPERIMENT, Meta Goes DIRECT, Crypto is ALL WE HAVE LEFT
  • Consider Meta (META) for long-term exposure to consumer AI hardware, but treat the opportunity as speculative until its glasses and Muse assistant demonstrate sustained adoption.
  • If you hold Bitcoin (BTC) for its potential as a hedge against currency debasement, focus on the long-term thesis and be prepared for near-term volatility.
  • Variational’s planned Q4 2026 token launch may interest airdrop participants, but its valuation is unconfirmed; assess the unlocks and vesting terms before taking risk.
  • Avoid treating natural diamonds as investments: the discussion cites falling prices and growing competition from lab-grown alternatives.
The VC Coin Cycle and Why He Holds No Bitcoin - Rekt Mando
  • Zcash (ZEC) is the clearest high-upside crypto idea discussed, supported by privacy demand and recent relative strength; treat the potential 10x as highly speculative, with no timeframe or endorsed $20,000 target.
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) was the guest’s largest crypto holding; its case rests on active product use, but the $200 and $1,000 figures cited were other traders’ targets, not forecasts.
  • For a near-term pullback, the guest was short Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) over the next few weeks, without specific price targets.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) was his largest stock position, with a speculative 4–5x estimate over two years; weigh continued GLP-1 growth against safety and legal risks.
  • Micron (MU) could gain an estimated 20%–30% over the next few months, though memory-price uncertainty remains a key risk.
The Market Gods Punish Greed, KoolKrypto Has a TON of Alpha, and Twitter Markets
  • If pursuing the crypto momentum trade, favor ZEC over the related meme token; avoid leverage or consider downside protection, such as the discussed $1,200 put.
  • Derive is a higher-risk, longer-term bet on growth in on-chain options, but the projected 5–10× volume growth is a forecast, not a guarantee.
  • Treat EXPE, PYPL, SHOP, and CART as a watchlist for agentic-commerce adoption rather than chasing announcement-driven price spikes; SHOP had the strongest reaction.
  • Avoid short-dated, leveraged calls on INTC, MRVL, SNDK, and MU: the trades discussed had roughly two weeks to expiration and carry substantial risk.
why muse changed meta forever

why muse changed meta forever

47 days ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube18 min 44 sec
  • Monitor Meta (META) for sustained Muse usage, growth in connected services, and evidence that AI engagement improves advertising; its reported early downloads are promising but do not yet establish durable revenue.
  • Treat NVIDIA (NVDA) and Micron (MU) as broad AI-theme exposures only: the discussion provides no company-specific valuation, price target, or actionable timing.
  • Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) may compete in personal AI assistants, but their investment cases remain speculative without evidence of product adoption or financial impact.
  • Consider privacy-focused crypto and zero-knowledge (ZK) technology only as a high-risk, broad theme; no specific token or timeframe is identified.
Meta Muse is Incredible, Mando Shares Alpha, and Plumbers Take Over
  • Avoid chasing BCH after its reported 15% event-driven jump; the discussion offered no fundamental thesis or price target, and UNI likewise lacked a clear catalyst.
  • Treat HYPE and ZEC as higher-risk crypto watchlist candidates: the guest favored both, but gave no entry levels or targets, and crypto narratives can reverse quickly.
  • Monitor META for sustained Meta Muse usage and broader integrations before buying; early downloads alone do not establish a durable business impact.
  • Avoid short-dated SPX options and leveraged SOXL trades unless you can withstand potentially severe losses; the examples described major drawdowns and a margin call.
MARKET OPEN: Meta Muse SAVED AI, Crypto is in a BULL MARKET, Bitcoin BREAKS $86K
  • Bitcoin (BTC): The breakout above $86,000 and roughly $1 billion in ETF inflows support the bullish case, but avoid chasing; watch $80,000–$82,000 for a possible pullback and $88,000 as a key near-term level.
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE): The discussion favors HYPE on platform use and potential institutional interest, with $100 cited as a near-term target versus roughly $96 at the time; account for reversal risk.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY): The strongest stock idea cited was Lilly, based on its GLP-1 business and future applications; the suggested 4–5x over two years is highly speculative, with product-safety and legal risks to monitor.
  • Micron (MU): The memory-chip trade was described as moderately bullish, with potential 20%–30% upside over the next few months; watch whether memory prices remain firm.
  • CoreWeave (CRWV): The bearish view centers on heavy debt and high financing costs, making it a potential short candidate—but data-center delays and financing risks could make the trade volatile.
Warren Buffett was trading against plumbers

The discussion offers no current valuation, price target, or timeframe for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A/BRK.B), the S&P 500, or any named stocks, so it does not support a specific buy or sell recommendation. Treat Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies as speculative: Buffett’s quoted skepticism is historical, not a current forecast, and no entry point is provided. Approach prediction markets cautiously; the discussion highlights regulatory uncertainty and the risk of being outmatched, without naming a platform or actionable contract.

Was Buffet Insider Trading, Meta AI Takes Over, and No More Bears

Bitcoin (BTC) has invalidated its bear market thesis by breaking out above $85,000, signaling strong continued upside as long as price holds above the critical $82,000 support level.

For higher-volatility upside tied to this momentum, MicroStrategy (MSTR) offers an aggressive entry point after successfully defending technical support near $194.

In mega-cap equities, Meta Platforms (META) is surging toward $700, positioned as a top artificial intelligence beneficiary as autonomous AI agents begin unlocking high-margin commerce revenue beyond traditional advertising.

Within the broader crypto market, concentrate capital exclusively into leading ecosystem assets like Ethereum (ETH) above $2,750, Solana (SOL) near $116, and Hyperliquid (HYPE) as it targets $100, while avoiding lagging altcoins.

Declining Treasury yields and falling energy prices are creating a favorable macro environment for tech-heavy indices like Invesco QQQ (QQQ) and SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which remain the core vehicles for the broader AI infrastructure trade.

MARKET OPEN: Bitcoin at $84K, Crypto BULL MARKET is HERE, Meta Muse SAVED the AI TRADE
  • Bitcoin (BTC) has a constructive near-term setup while it holds above roughly $82,000; consider only a modest allocation (the discussion suggested 5%) and account for crypto’s volatility.
  • For selective altcoin exposure, Ethereum (ETH) and Zcash (ZEC) were among the most bullish ideas; watch ETH’s relative strength versus BTC and monitor whether ZEC’s large holder begins selling.
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) was another high-upside watchlist idea near $95–$96, but treat third-party $500–$700 targets as speculative, not forecasts.
  • The discussion’s clearest stock trade was short Expedia (EXPE) on potential AI-agent disruption to travel booking, though no entry, target, or timeframe was provided; manage risk carefully.
FIRST TIME: Live call-ins, Crypto is Electric, and Private AI

Consider accumulating Meta Platforms (META) near the $680.00 pullback zone to capitalize on its leading consumer AI execution and top-ranking app ecosystem. Position for the expanding Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) theme by targeting Robinhood (HOOD) as the traditional finance bridge and Uniswap (UNI) as the key decentralized liquidity venue. Look for long entries on VVV (VVV) near the $26.00 level to benefit from accelerating enterprise demand for Private AI Infrastructure. Manage high-momentum gains on Zcash (ZEC) around the $1,450–$1,470 range by scaling out partial profits while trailing a core position toward higher targets. Finally, track Near Protocol (NEAR) and Arbitrum (ARB) for sustained trading volume following their recent 20% breakouts before committing fresh capital to altcoins.

The Mormon Hedge Fund, The SEC Loves Crypto, & Tulip King Shares Alpha

Investors seeking exposure to geopolitical energy disruptions should target the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET) instead of underlying Crude Oil (BRENT / WTI), capturing powerful leverage from surging shipping rates. Capitalize on the SEC's new five-year innovation framework by building positions in retail trading platforms like Robinhood (HOOD) as adoption of tokenized stocks accelerates. For high-risk momentum strategies, Zcash (ZEC) presents strong trend continuation potential following privacy-driven demand, though caution is warranted after its rapid rise into the $1,360–$1,370 zone. Finally, maintain core portfolio exposure to the semiconductor sector through top institutional holdings like NVIDIA (NVDA) and Micron (MU), or utilize SOXL for tactical, leveraged upside during market rallies.

Tulip King - Zcash to a Trillion, Onchain Options & AI-Secured Bitcoin

Accumulate a long-term spot position in Zcash (ZEC) as a sovereign private money play, targeting a multi-cycle price expansion from $1,000 up to $10,000.

Invest in Derive (DRV) to capture asymmetric upside in the decentralized options market, where token buybacks and the upcoming V3 launch support a projected re-rating from a $228 million valuation toward $1 billion+.

Maintain exposure to Hyperliquid (HYPE) as the premier perpetual futures platform, targeting price objectives between $100 and $200.

Rotate capital away from major Layer-1 tokens including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and BNB (BNB) to avoid downside risk driven by the commoditization of block space.

Utilize out-of-the-money call options on traditional equities like Apple (AAPL) and Tempus AI (TEM) for capital-efficient, defined-risk exposure to long-term artificial intelligence adoption.

trading is bigger than christianity

Invest in foundational AI infrastructure leaders like Micron Technology (MU) to capture long-term upside from massive technological disruption. Target decentralized trading platforms like Hyperliquid (HYPE), where passionate community loyalty is actively capturing market share and liquidity from legacy centralized exchanges. Add privacy-centric cryptocurrencies like Zcash (ZEC) to your portfolio as macro tailwinds build around anti-surveillance narratives and concerns over CBDCs. For high-risk allocations, trade narrative-driven tokens such as Goatseus Maximus (GOAT) and SPX6900 (SPX) by tracking viral social momentum rather than traditional financial metrics. Crucially, always pair these high-conviction trades with a predefined exit plan to lock in profits before speculative hype cycles peak and reverse.