threadguy
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threadguy

by @notthreadguy

851 videos

Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.
Ask about threadguyAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

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851 posts
MARKET OPEN: AI BROKE THE INTERNET, Interviewing a Cybersecurity EXPERT, TAP IN

The clearest actionable theme is rising demand for cybersecurity as AI uncovers vulnerabilities, but the discussion offers no high-conviction stock pick or price target; treat NET, CRWD, and PANW as research candidates, not automatic buys.
If investing in cybersecurity, compare each company’s valuation and fundamentals before entering, since all three were described as volatile and expensive.
For crypto holdings, diversify custody methods and secure important accounts with hardware-based two-factor authentication such as a YubiKey; the discussion provides no reliable price targets for BTC, ZEC, or other tokens.
Avoid concentrated, leveraged positions in illiquid markets—the Amaranth natural-gas collapse shows how quickly a difficult exit can turn into forced losses.

the reason im buying crypto again

the reason im buying crypto again

18 days ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube14 min 42 sec
  • Consider Bitcoin (BTC) selectively as a potential diversifier from AI-linked assets, but monitor whether that recent divergence continues; $77,000–$78,000 was cited only as a hypothetical downside scenario, not a price target or floor.
  • The speaker has resumed buying Zcash (ZEC) and wants to build a position, but gave no entry price or target, so size any exposure cautiously.
  • Favor selective crypto exposure over meme coins: the speaker is bullish on BTC and ZEC but bearish on meme-coin trading.
MARKET OPEN: Did PumpFun SAVE ONCHAIN?, I BOUGHT CRYPTO BACK, Citrini, BIO & the Future of BALDING
  • Bitcoin (BTC): The host is bullish, viewing it as a potential diversifier from weakening AI-linked assets, but offered no price target; the cited $77,000–$78,000 level is a bearish scenario, not his forecast.
  • Zcash (ZEC): The host has bought and wants to build a position around $1,269, but said he might exit at $1,100—a personal risk limit, not a general recommendation.
  • Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS): Consider the proposed October 26 split into MSGK (Knicks) and MSGR (Rangers) as a potential valuation catalyst, but treat it as speculative because the spin-off and cited team valuations are uncertain.
the $1,000,000 pokemon card heist

the $1,000,000 pokemon card heist

19 days ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube13 min 44 sec
  • Treat Pokémon and trading cards as illiquid, hard-to-value collectibles; only consider buying when there are recent, comparable sales for the specific card.
  • Before using PSA or another grading and storage service, assess custody, shipping, and valuation-dispute risks; PSA is private, with no publicly traded ticker identified.
  • The reported theft raises a security concern for FedEx (FDX), but the discussion provides no basis for a stock trade or price target.
MARKET OPEN: BLACK TUESDAY for AI Stocks, The $1M+ Pokémon Card HEIST, What's NEXT for Crypto?
  • Bitcoin (BTC) is the clearest potential re-entry to watch: consider waiting for it to hold near $80,000–$82,000, rather than buying solely on reported ETF inflows.
  • Treat CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS), and IREN as high-risk exposures; monitor debt needs, financing costs, and customer concentration before investing.
  • Twist Bioscience (TWST) is a speculative way to follow the AI-biotechnology theme, but the investment link is unproven and no commercial timeline or price target was provided.
  • Avoid treating sharp semiconductor declines as a buy signal; SOXL magnifies losses, and the discussion offered no specific buy recommendation for chip stocks.
how i’m trading the crypto market (positioning update)
  • Stay mostly in cash while crypto remains choppy; wait for a clearer market direction, even if that means missing the first 10–15% of a rebound.
  • Consider Bitcoin (BTC) only after a stronger bullish signal emerges; the speaker was cautiously positive near $83,615 but gave no entry target.
  • Avoid oversized positions and leverage, particularly in volatile altcoins; the speaker had exited Zcash (ZEC) and offered no actionable buy signal for NEAR, HYPE, or PUMP.
MARKET OPEN: Elon Musk SAVED AMERICA, Crypto is BACK, Quantum is a SCAM, HAPPY FRIDAY

No high-conviction trade is supported by the discussion: TSLA, EBAY, and MSFT comments are speculative, without a researched thesis or reliable entry point. Avoid reacting to thin after-hours moves, which can distort prices and make exits difficult. Treat PYTH’s reserve-funded buyback as unconfirmed investment support until its funding, mechanics, and sustainability are independently verified. Approach meme coins and leveraged SOXL with particular caution, as sharp swings can magnify losses.

based16z - The Hyperliquid Trade, Early Lore, & How to Make It
  • Keep capital preservation separate from speculation: the guest holds about 70% of his portfolio in short-term U.S. Treasuries, reserving the rest for riskier trades.
  • Avoid leveraged perpetual futures without a proven edge; frequent trading and fees can steadily erode capital.
  • The insights provide no current price targets or clear buy signals for HYPE, HOOD, GPRO, or the other named stocks, so avoid treating past wins as actionable recommendations.
LIVE: The Based16z Interview

LIVE: The Based16z Interview

24 days ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube1 hr 27 min
  • Keep a substantial reserve in short-term U.S. Treasuries before making riskier bets; the guest reported holding about 70% of his portfolio there, though that allocation may not suit everyone.
  • Treat Bitcoin weekly calls as a high-risk, catalyst-dependent trade: the cited setup was historical, and options can expire worthless, so it does not establish a current buy signal.
  • The discussion offers no current price targets or confirmed trade setups for HYPE, RLB, HOOD, or AEO; these were past successes, not actionable recommendations today.
MARKET OPEN: Anthropic ARR is BAD, Markets in TROUBLE, Where Does Crypto Go NEXT?, Based16z TODAY
  • Stay cautious in volatile markets: consider holding cash in SGOV for near-term needs or while awaiting clearer market signals; its quoted yield was about 3.7%, but yields can change.
  • Avoid rushing to buy Bitcoin (BTC) or Zcash (ZEC); the discussion favors waiting for a chart and sentiment reversal, with no re-entry levels provided.
  • Treat AI and semiconductor stocks—including NVDA, AMD, MU, and CRWV—as high-volatility investments; no specific buy levels or price targets were given.
the profit was never yours it was just your turn

Consider moving a portion of substantial trading gains into 30-year bonds to preserve capital, but the transcript provides no yield or purchase timing to evaluate. Avoid excessive leverage: at 20-to-1, a 5% adverse move can wipe out equity, and first-loss firms may expose your capital to forced liquidation. Set rules in advance for position sizes and taking profits; the examples of Jesse Livermore and Archegos show how leverage and concentrated exposure can turn major gains into catastrophic losses.

Can AI Break Crypto? Mert, Illia Polosukhin and ZK Dragon
  • The discussion offers no price targets or specific buy signals; Bitcoin’s underlying cryptography appears safe from AI or quantum breakthroughs for the foreseeable future, but prioritize custody and smart-contract security.
  • For crypto investors, consider NEAR and Zcash (ZEC) as projects to monitor for post-quantum readiness and upgrade flexibility—not as guaranteed-safe investments.
  • Treat the host’s “buy the dip” view as personal opinion, not a defined trade recommendation; the discussion provides no entry prices or timeframe.
God gave me one chance to make $1M and I failed
  • No specific buy or sell trade is supported: the ZEC prices cited (1,190 and 1,230) were observations, not targets, and the discussion gives no objective valuation or forecast.
  • Avoid oversized or leveraged crypto positions; set position limits and an exit plan before trading.
  • After an emotional trade, consider a cooling-off period rather than reacting to volatility or social-media commentary.
MARKET OPEN: Crypto is an AI LOSER, Meta Muse is BACK, The Anthropic IPO
  • Consider Meta (META) as the clearest stock opportunity discussed, supported by its new Muse AI model and improving sentiment; watch for adoption and pricing details before assuming the launch will boost results.
  • For broad software exposure, IGV has rebounded about 50% from its April low, while earnings have challenged fears that AI will make software obsolete; compare upcoming results with valuations before buying.
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) was a guest’s long-term favorite, conditional on continued execution; treat regulatory uncertainty and the lack of a clear entry price as key risks.
  • For Bitcoin exposure, track concrete security developments amid quantum concerns; ordinary investors may find a spot Bitcoin ETF or Coinbase simpler than self-custody.
  • Avoid buying hardware wallets from unauthorized resellers, and size volatile crypto positions conservatively to reduce the risk of emotionally driven selling.
rehashing the worst day in crypto history
  • Avoid leverage in crypto, especially in illiquid altcoins: the episode describes how sudden sell-offs and disappearing bids can trigger rapid liquidations.
  • Keep near-term cash needs out of volatile assets; the speaker had to sell $150,000 of PUMP to cover taxes after a steep decline.
  • The insights provide no validated buy signals, current price targets, or recovery timeline for BTC, ETH, or other coins, so avoid treating the cited trader levels as actionable forecasts.
MARKET OPEN: Revisiting the WORST DAY in Crypto History, The 10/10 ANNIVERSARY, OpenAI SUCKS
  • Keep near-term expenses, including taxes, out of volatile crypto; the PUMP selloff shows how liquidity shocks can force losses at the worst time.
  • If holding crypto, size positions for severe drawdowns and prioritize liquidity: the discussion reports far larger losses across many altcoins than BTC, while even established assets suffered steep declines.
  • ZEC was the speaker’s clearest preferred spot holding, but no price target or timeframe was given, and it remains exposed to sharp losses.
the human brain isn’t built to trade modern markets

No high-conviction trade is supported by these insights: they provide no specific buy or sell recommendation, entry price, or price target. Monitor Bitcoin for credible technical updates on quantum risks, but treat current concerns as long-term uncertainty—not evidence of an imminent threat. Track inflation, Fed decisions, Treasury yields, and bond demand together; long-duration U.S. Treasuries face interest-rate and opportunity-cost risks, but no specific bond trade is identified. Treat oil above $105 as a reported market level, not a target, and avoid taking a directional position based on geopolitical headlines alone.

Doug Colkitt - Will AI Crack Crypto, Bunker Mode, and the Y2K Comparison

For significant ETH or SOL holdings, consider a two-of-three multisig with signers on separate devices; Safe and Squads were cited as tools, not investment recommendations. Treat the cryptography-breaking scenario as a long-term, uncertain risk, not a reason to sell ETH or buy BTC or ZEC; no price targets or timelines were provided. AI-assisted formal verification may help improve smart-contract security, but the discussion offered no specific public-market investment opportunity.

MARKET OPEN: Crypto is in TROUBLE, AI is BREAKING EVERYTHING, HAPPY 10/10
  • Avoid panic-selling BTC or ETH over speculative AI-cryptography fears; no practical break was reported, and the discussion offered no firm buy or sell call.
  • Strengthen crypto security with diversified 2-of-3 multisig custody using different wallet setups, and avoid hurried transfers to new addresses.
  • Treat HYPE near $85 and the cited crypto basket as unresearched sentiment, not actionable buy recommendations; no price targets or timelines were provided.
  • Monitor Brent crude near $107 for Iran-related geopolitical risk, but the discussion gave no specific oil trade recommendation.