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threadguy

by @notthreadguy

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Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.
Ask about threadguyAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

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851 posts
The End of American Culture is Near..

Investors should exercise extreme caution with high-end collectibles like Pokémon cards, as celebrity involvement suggests a "cultural top" and a potential peak in market mania. If you hold speculative assets, prioritize "blue-chip" items like Charizard or consider exiting positions as organic demand is replaced by speculative froth. Monitor Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) closely leading up to the release of GTA 6, as the massive hype may trigger a "sell the news" event and extreme stock volatility. The convergence of influencer culture and politics indicates a "local top" in the attention economy, signaling it is time to rotate capital away from hype-driven ventures. Focus on fundamentally grounded investments that are decoupled from social media trends to protect against a correction in consumer sentiment.

Holding Oil Right Now is EXTREMELY Risky..
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How Bam Adebayo Relates to Crypto..
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Why Twitter is More Reliable than the News..
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The Dangers of Longing Oil Right Now..
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DOGE Was Pointless..

DOGE Was Pointless..

242 days ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube19 sec
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Bam Adebayo is a Disgrace to America..
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Why the USA and Israel Attacked Iran..
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Why the War for Oil is NOT Over..

Why the War for Oil is NOT Over..

242 days ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube35 min 24 sec
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The Government is Manipulating Oil Markets..
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The Harsh Reality of Present Day War..
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How the USA is Manipulating Oil Markets..

Investors should prepare for extreme volatility in Crude Oil (WTI/Brent) as a "decoupling" occurs between suppressed paper prices and the physical reality of a potential blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

The most actionable strategy is to hedge against supply chain shocks by investing in the hydrocarbon value chain, specifically companies producing Fertilizer, PVC, and Petrochemicals.

Monitor Planet Labs (PL) for satellite data releases, as their current two-week footage delay has created an information vacuum that favors government-driven "headline management" over market fundamentals.

Watch for the U.S. government potentially stepping into the maritime insurance market; if private insurers refuse to cover tankers due to Iranian mines, it serves as a definitive "buy" signal for energy prices.

For those in physical industries, stockpiling essential building materials like Roofing and Paint is recommended now to avoid imminent price spikes and shortages driven by energy-related inflation.

Why The USA is on the Verge of Winning the War.. (jvb_xyz)

Avoid direct long or short positions in Crude Oil futures due to extreme volatility and thin liquidity, as the current price spikes are considered transient and fundamentally oversupplied. Instead of trading the commodity, use geopolitical sell-offs to "buy the dip" in high-conviction assets like Hyperliquid (HYPE) and other liquid crypto or equity positions. For long-term investors, the fair value of oil is estimated at $50 per barrel, suggesting a bearish outlook once Middle East tensions normalize. Sophisticated traders should consider selling overvalued options to collect premium rather than making directional bets, or look for short entries in December 2026 Oil Futures if geopolitical stability returns. Monitor news regarding U.S. Treasury insurance guarantees for tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as this financial backing is key to preventing a permanent price shock.

I Almost Bought Nintendo Stock After This..

Buy Nintendo (NTDOY) as the latest Pokémon title marks a significant return to high-quality gameplay, likely driving stronger-than-anticipated quarterly earnings. This software-led momentum serves as a powerful catalyst for the stock, reversing previous bearish sentiment regarding the company's creative output. Investors should view this resurgence in flagship IP quality as a key indicator of ecosystem strength ahead of the anticipated Nintendo Switch 2 launch. Accumulate shares now to capitalize on the potential valuation re-rating as the company leverages its most valuable franchises. Focus on the NTDOY ADR or the primary 7974.T listing to gain exposure to this product-driven recovery.

The US is Not Taking This War Seriously..

Heightened geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran suggest a strategic entry point into major defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC). Investors should monitor Crude Oil (WTI/Brent) for price spikes, as regional instability often adds a significant risk premium to energy markets. To capitalize on rising energy prices, consider exposure to large-scale producers such as ExxonMobil (XOM) or Chevron (CVX). In response to high diplomatic uncertainty, rotating capital into safe-haven assets like Gold (GC=F) can provide a hedge against broader market volatility. Ensure your portfolio includes diversified holdings or volatility-linked instruments to withstand sudden swings in the VIX caused by international conflict news.