Jordi Visser

Investors should shift from a passive strategy to a active trading stance as the S&P 500 (SPY) has broken key technical supports, with a potential downside target of 6,100. To hedge against this volatility and rising inflation, consider tactical Long VIX positions and exposure to the Commodity complex, specifically Silver and Copper. While long-term bullish on Semiconductors and Memory, investors should maintain short-term hedges on the sector due to supply chain disruptions like the helium shortage. Focus AI investments on "agentic" orchestration and infrastructure, specifically highlighting Palantir (PLTR) for its enterprise adoption and the "Whole Rack" data center theme. Avoid broad Financials (XLF) and Private Credit due to hidden valuation risks, while using Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term decentralization hedge despite potential 20-30% short-term sympathy drops during market panics.

Investors should consider going Long VIX or purchasing volatility protection to hedge against an expected spike in market turbulence and a potential "capitulation day" sell-off. In the technology sector, shift focus from software to hardware by targeting Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD), as "agentic AI" drives a critical shortage in server CPUs. Avoid Meta Platforms (META) and Airlines due to rising AI research costs and the risk of sustained WTI Oil prices above $90 per barrel. Be cautious with private credit and financial firms like Blue Owl (OWL) and Blackstone (BX), as liquidity squeezes and credit markdowns signal structural weakness. Maintain a long-term position in Bitcoin (BTC) as the primary asset for AI-driven commerce and a hedge against traditional financial system instability.

Avoid "bottom fishing" in the financial sector (XLF) as it trades below its 200-day moving average, signaling a period of deleveraging and potential liquidity traps in private credit funds like CCLFX. Consider a pair trade by going Long Energy/Materials and Short Software, as the valuation gap between these sectors is expected to close amid rising oil prices and a "SaaS is dead" sentiment. Investors should pivot away from traditional seat-based software like Salesforce (CRM) and Workday (WDAY) toward AI-ready infrastructure like Palantir (PLTR) and IT consultants like Accenture (ACN). Maintain long positions in Cybersecurity and Bitcoin (BTC) as non-discretionary hedges against AI-driven threats and structural shifts in traditional growth assets. Prepare for higher volatility by monitoring the VIX for a potential spike toward 50, using it as a signal to hedge existing commodity and semiconductor exposure.

Investors should consider rotating capital out of traditional software ETFs like IGV and high-multiple names like Salesforce (CRM), as AI agents threaten to permanently compress valuations in the SaaS sector. To hedge against a potential "hidden crisis" in software-backed debt, monitor the BKLN Leveraged Loan ETF for signs of credit contagion and rising default rates. Shift exposure toward "physical" assets with guaranteed longevity, specifically targeting Energy, Chemicals, Silver, and Analog Semiconductors. Bitcoin (BTC) remains a high-conviction long-term play as it serves as the essential trust layer and native currency for AI-driven transactions during periods of market volatility. Finally, protect portfolios against a broader market correction by holding Long-term Treasuries and monitoring the KRE Regional Bank ETF for technical breakdowns below its 200-day moving average.

Avoid the software sector, as AI is causing a structural decline in traditional SaaS business models, making indices like IGV a value trap. Instead, focus on the "physical world upgrade" by investing in asset-heavy sectors like Industrials, Materials, Energy, and Utilities, which provide the building blocks for AI infrastructure. Within hardware, the memory chip sector presents a specific opportunity due to a growing supply crisis in NAND flash memory. Consider allocating to Bitcoin (BTC) as a scarce digital asset that is structurally positioned to benefit from the same AI trends disrupting software. Finally, watch NVIDIA (NVDA) as the key market indicator, as a breakdown in its price could signal a broader market correction.

Consider rotating out of the SaaS software sector (IGV), which is viewed as a "value trap" facing significant disruption from Artificial Intelligence. Instead, focus on the "physical world" scarcity theme by investing in companies supplying the AI build-out, such as Chevron (CVX) in energy and Eaton (ETN) in capital goods. Increase your allocation to international stocks (MSCI World ex-US), as this index is breaking out of a 15-year flat period and provides a hedge against US tech concentration. For emerging markets exposure, consider Brazil (EWZ), which is benefiting from rising commodity prices and falling interest rates. Long-term investors should view a potential drop in Bitcoin (BTC) towards the $40,000 level as a strategic buying opportunity.

Consider overweighting small-cap stocks, as the Russell 2000 is predicted to potentially rise over 50% this year, significantly outperforming mega-cap tech. Avoid traditional software-as-a-service stocks (IGV) whose business models are threatened by AI, and instead view pullbacks in AI-native companies like Palantir (PLTR) as buying opportunities. Accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) for the long term, watching for a divergence where it rises while software stocks fall as a key bullish signal. Invest in the AI infrastructure build-out by focusing on semiconductors like Micron (MU) and critical minerals such as copper and silver. For emerging market exposure to the minerals theme, consider the Brazil ETF (EWZ), which is poised to benefit from its vast rare earth reserves.

The primary investment strategy is to focus on physical scarcity assets like Energy, Materials, and Semiconductors while avoiding the software sector. Consider a long position in the energy sector ETF (XLE), as the trend of Energy outperforming software is expected to be a long-term theme. Invest in the AI hardware bottleneck through memory chip makers like Micron (MU) and optical component supplier Corning (GLW), which are in the early stages of their growth cycle. For broad exposure to the materials and energy themes, the Brazil ETF (EWZ) is highlighted as a top strategic investment for the year. Finally, accumulate Silver for its essential role in AI and solar, but be prepared for significant price volatility.

Consider allocating to the energy and materials sectors through ETFs like XLE, as the AI infrastructure buildout is creating a long-term, non-cyclical demand for physical assets. Conversely, be cautious with traditional software companies and consider shorting the sector via the IGV ETF, as their business models face structural threats from new AI advancements. While silver has already seen a large price increase, silver mining stocks may still present an opportunity due to inelastic industrial demand. For a lagging play on the global commodity boom, look at the Brazil ETF EWZ, which has a strong historical correlation to rising commodity prices. Finally, the current consolidation in Bitcoin (BTC) is viewed as a buying opportunity before its next potential parabolic move.

Consider overweighting small caps through the Russell 2000 (IWM), which is projected to be a dominant theme with potential returns exceeding 50% this year. Shift investment focus from software to the physical AI build-out by investing in energy producers like Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM), who are critical to powering new data centers. Instead of software, focus on key semiconductor memory providers like Micron (MU) and Western Digital (WDC) that are benefiting from AI-driven supply shortages. Gain exposure to the new commodity cycle through assets like copper and silver, which have price-inelastic demand from data center construction. As a high-conviction trade, view Bitcoin (BTC) as a pure play on energy and watch for a major breakout confirmation on three consecutive daily closes above $92,000.

The market is entering a rare global reflationary boom, creating a strong tailwind for both technology and commodities over the next 12-24 months. Consider Bitcoin (BTC) as a top holding for the year, as it has flashed a strong technical buy signal and is positioned to benefit from a weaker US Dollar. The primary investment theme is the shift of AI into the physical world, so prioritize hardware and materials companies over software. Look for opportunities in the semiconductor supply chain, such as Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) and Qualcomm (QCOM), which may outperform traditional AI leaders. Finally, add exposure to cyclical stocks like copper producer Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and chemicals company DuPont (DD) that are breaking out and will benefit from this physical build-out.

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