Semis vs Software Is Breaking the Market (Scarcity vs Abundance)
Semis vs Software Is Breaking the Market (Scarcity vs Abundance)
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Video Description
In this week's video, I break down why the market is experiencing its most significant broadening-out in years with small caps up 7% in just two weeks and over 1000 of the names in the S&P 1500 outperforming the index year-to-date (versus 448 over the last five years). This is not a large cap to smidcap story but a concentration story as even in the large cap only SPX we are seeing similar percentages. Beneath the surface, we're witnessing a fundamental regime shift: the concentrated AI data center/ChatGPT software buildout theme is now broadening out as we reach the physical limits of power and hardware. Alpha so far has been migrating away from concentrated mega-cap software and towards underinvested areas of the market. The scarcity story is accelerating across semiconductors (equal-weight semis up 65% since May lows while software down 5%), memory (Micron supply shortages intensifying despite bears calling for 2026 oversupply), and advanced packaging (new "package" index up 12% as data movement replaces raw GPU compute). Meanwhile, software faces its "Ozempic moment" as Claude Code built an entire desktop app in 10 days without human involvement in the code, while Microsoft Copilot has struggled for three years to deliver similar productivity. The AI agent inflection is here, and large SaaS incumbents in enterprise software are suffering as the buyers realize they can replace both headcount and software budgets simultaneously. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan earnings calls confirmed massive internal AI infrastructure buildouts designed to prevent headcount growth the adoption and ai agent productivity gains are becoming undeniable even to skeptics. Healthcare is emerging as the next major AI adoption vertical, with consumer facing ChatGPT Health launching and OpenAI Healthcare as well across major hospital systems (Advent, Memorial Sloan Kettering, Cedars-Sinai) and Nvidia partnering with Eli Lilly on a co-innovation lab for drug discovery. Pharma relative performance just made a multi-decade breakout, and the healthcare sector is reversing years of underperformance versus the broader market. Despite a setback this week in the Clarity Act, Bitcoin and Ethereum both continue to show signs of bottoming Timestamps • (00:00–04:15) Market breadth & concentration shift: Small caps leading, Mag 7 underperforming, dramatic increase in names outperforming the index versus historical norms • (04:20–07:02) Semis vs. software divergence: Equal-weight semis up 65% while software makes new lows; inflation data showing continued cooling • (07:09–10:01) Power constraints & secular themes: Long scarcity (gold, copper, semis, memory), short abundance (software, high-multiple AI infrastructure); industrial production strengthening • (10:01–17:06) Advanced packaging & memory shortage: "Package" index tracking data movement beneficiaries; TSMC, Qualcomm, and memory supply dynamics • (17:07–27:45) Nvidia Ruben architecture & data movement: GPU era ending, transition to memory-augmented efficient AI; Deep Seek paper confirming memory as key to performance per watt • (27:46–36:15) Software disruption by AI agents: Claude Code built Co-work in 10 days; Microsoft Copilot struggling after 3 years; recursive self-improvement shipping in production • (36:16–42:00) Financial services AI adoption: Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan building autonomous systems to prevent headcount growth with revenue; on-premise enterprise deployments accelerating • (42:01–50:17) Healthcare AI inflection: ChatGPT Health launch, Nvidia-Eli Lilly co-innovation lab, pharma sector multi-decade breakout, AI drug discovery acceleration • (50:18–54:10) Bitcoin technicals & crypto update: Breakout above key moving averages, reverse head-and-shoulders formation, weekly MACD ready to cross
About Jordi Visser
Jordi Visser

Jordi Visser

By @jordivisserlabs

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