
by @jordivisserlabs
45 videos
The AI capex cycle is shifting from software to the physical layer, driven by critical shortages in memory, compute, and industrial power. Investors are rotating into hardware and infrastructure as the primary beneficiaries of the data center build-out.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are emerging as essential hedges against sticky inflation and negative real yields, with technical signals pointing toward a year-end rally.
The physical upgrade of the electrical grid and the need for renewable energy are creating new opportunities in industrial automation and international markets.
AI-generated summary. Not investment advice. Learn more.

Investors should prioritize hardware and infrastructure over traditional software, specifically targeting Micron (MU) which is undervalued at a 5x P/E due to critical memory shortages. To capture the "Five-Layer Cake" of AI, look toward specialized chemical providers like Entegris (ENTG) and Chemours (CC), the latter of which has the potential to double this year. Industrial giant Caterpillar (CAT) serves as a high-conviction play on data center power needs, backed by a record $62 billion backlog and a projected tripling of power gen sales by 2030. In the digital asset space, monitor Ethereum (ETH) for two consecutive closes above $2,456 as a definitive breakout signal for a year-end rally. To hedge against rising inflation and power demands, maintain exposure to energy leaders Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XOM), which are currently lagging behind oil price gains.

Prioritize the "Physical AI" build-out by shifting capital away from traditional software and into high-conviction semiconductor leaders like NVIDIA (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and Micron (MU). Focus on the transition to "Edge AI" and industrial automation by monitoring Texas Instruments (TXN) as a demand barometer and Intel (INTC) for the rising importance of CPU-based inference. Invest in the physical infrastructure required for data centers through industrial proxies like Caterpillar (CAT) and United Rentals (URI), which benefit from the massive electrical grid upgrade. Position for a commodities super-cycle by going long on Copper and Silver, as these materials are essential for power systems and are facing significant supply bottlenecks. Allocate to Bitcoin (BTC) as a primary growth asset and inflation hedge, with technical patterns suggesting a price target between $95,000 and $100,000.

Investors should prioritize NVIDIA (NVDA) as it breaks out toward new highs, driven by a massive compute shortage and a 48% surge in chip pricing. Intel (INTC) represents a high-conviction recovery play as a critical CPU shortage grants the company renewed pricing power and a parabolic technical setup. For infrastructure exposure, rotate away from traditional software and into Oracle (ORCL), which is being re-rated as a vital provider of AI cloud hardware. In the digital asset space, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) have triggered weekly buy signals, positioning them as essential hedges against sticky inflation and high interest rates. Finally, use any price dips to accumulate "power trade" stocks like Eaton (ETN), Vertiv (VRT), and Micron (MU) to capitalize on the physical energy and memory bottlenecks stalling AI expansion.

Shift your portfolio from software to the physical infrastructure of AI by going long on hardware leaders like NVIDIA (NVDA), which remains attractively valued at roughly 20x 2027 earnings.
Prioritize Bitcoin (BTC) as a hedge against negative real yields and potential AI-driven cybersecurity vulnerabilities in traditional banking software.
Invest in the "Green Compute" theme by targeting Brazil (EWZ), which offers the renewable energy and geopolitical stability required for massive data center expansion.
Position in industrial commodities, specifically Silver, and physical "picks and shovels" like Corning (GLW) to capitalize on the urgent demand for optical fiber and cooling technology.
Avoid the S&P 500 as a primary benchmark and reduce exposure to traditional software and private credit, as these sectors face disruption from advanced agentic AI models like Anthropic’s Mythos.

Investors should prioritize the shift toward "Agentic AI" by focusing on the physical infrastructure "rack," including GPUs, cooling systems, and power/gas turbines. Look for entry points in Micron (MU) and advanced semiconductor packaging firms during market pullbacks, as high-bandwidth memory demand is projected to remain tight through 2027. Avoid the financial sector and private credit funds like Blue Owl due to rising redemption pressures and systemic risks in insurance-linked credit products. Position in Utilities, Silver, and Energy to capitalize on the massive electricity requirements of data centers and structural inflation hedges. Maintain Bitcoin (BTC) as a core long-term hedge against high Debt-to-GDP levels, especially as major banks move toward asset tokenization by 2026.

Investors should rotate away from high-multiple software stocks like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN), as AI disruption and rising inflation are expected to compress their valuations. Instead, overweight the "scarcity" sector by building positions in Silver and energy leaders like ExxonMobil (XOM) to hedge against a projected CPI rise to 4-6%. Within the AI space, focus exclusively on hardware and infrastructure providers like Micron (MU) and ASML, specifically targeting entry points during market pullbacks. Avoid private credit funds and firms like Blue Owl or Apollo due to increasing liquidity risks and potential valuation write-downs. Monitor the S&P 500 for a total drawdown of 15% to 25%, using this volatility to transition from "abundance" assets into physical commodities and data center infrastructure.

Investors should shift from a passive strategy to a active trading stance as the S&P 500 (SPY) has broken key technical supports, with a potential downside target of 6,100. To hedge against this volatility and rising inflation, consider tactical Long VIX positions and exposure to the Commodity complex, specifically Silver and Copper. While long-term bullish on Semiconductors and Memory, investors should maintain short-term hedges on the sector due to supply chain disruptions like the helium shortage. Focus AI investments on "agentic" orchestration and infrastructure, specifically highlighting Palantir (PLTR) for its enterprise adoption and the "Whole Rack" data center theme. Avoid broad Financials (XLF) and Private Credit due to hidden valuation risks, while using Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term decentralization hedge despite potential 20-30% short-term sympathy drops during market panics.

Investors should consider going Long VIX or purchasing volatility protection to hedge against an expected spike in market turbulence and a potential "capitulation day" sell-off. In the technology sector, shift focus from software to hardware by targeting Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD), as "agentic AI" drives a critical shortage in server CPUs. Avoid Meta Platforms (META) and Airlines due to rising AI research costs and the risk of sustained WTI Oil prices above $90 per barrel. Be cautious with private credit and financial firms like Blue Owl (OWL) and Blackstone (BX), as liquidity squeezes and credit markdowns signal structural weakness. Maintain a long-term position in Bitcoin (BTC) as the primary asset for AI-driven commerce and a hedge against traditional financial system instability.

Avoid "bottom fishing" in the financial sector (XLF) as it trades below its 200-day moving average, signaling a period of deleveraging and potential liquidity traps in private credit funds like CCLFX. Consider a pair trade by going Long Energy/Materials and Short Software, as the valuation gap between these sectors is expected to close amid rising oil prices and a "SaaS is dead" sentiment. Investors should pivot away from traditional seat-based software like Salesforce (CRM) and Workday (WDAY) toward AI-ready infrastructure like Palantir (PLTR) and IT consultants like Accenture (ACN). Maintain long positions in Cybersecurity and Bitcoin (BTC) as non-discretionary hedges against AI-driven threats and structural shifts in traditional growth assets. Prepare for higher volatility by monitoring the VIX for a potential spike toward 50, using it as a signal to hedge existing commodity and semiconductor exposure.

Investors should consider rotating capital out of traditional software ETFs like IGV and high-multiple names like Salesforce (CRM), as AI agents threaten to permanently compress valuations in the SaaS sector. To hedge against a potential "hidden crisis" in software-backed debt, monitor the BKLN Leveraged Loan ETF for signs of credit contagion and rising default rates. Shift exposure toward "physical" assets with guaranteed longevity, specifically targeting Energy, Chemicals, Silver, and Analog Semiconductors. Bitcoin (BTC) remains a high-conviction long-term play as it serves as the essential trust layer and native currency for AI-driven transactions during periods of market volatility. Finally, protect portfolios against a broader market correction by holding Long-term Treasuries and monitoring the KRE Regional Bank ETF for technical breakdowns below its 200-day moving average.