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In this week's video, I break down why the S&P hitting new all-time highs, up three straight weeks after being down five, is occurring at the same time a new developing structural AI story: we have run out of compute. Memory, CPUs, and chips are all in shortage, and the agentic world has only just begun. I update my thematic baskets and introduce new subscriber tools, Beneath the surface of the violent rally, the market's real drivers remain energy, semis, capital goods, and materials, PMI-sensitive, inflationary-regime names keeping the new scarcity vs abundance regime alive and well.
The compute crunch is now showing up in real products. Anthropic's revenue tripled in four months while its uptime fell to 98.95% and token rationing began. Uber's CTO says coding tools have already maxed out their 2026 AI budget. OpenAI had to pull Sora. CoreWeave raised prices. Nvidia chip prices surged 48% in two months. Intel, written off just a year ago at $25, has gone parabolic to nearly $70 and new all-time highs because CPUs are genuinely unavailable. Meanwhile, Elon Musk announced Terra Fab, a chip fabrication facility the size of San Francisco, projecting $5–13 trillion in capital spending to address structural chip shortages for autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots, and edge AI.
Inflation is not going away. Oil's 12th-month contract is up 24% year-to-date, Korean export data shows explosive semiconductor price increases dubbed "chipflation," and the Beige Book confirmed widespread input cost pressures beyond energy. Goldman raised its inflation forecast. If CPI moves above 4%, the bond market becomes the place to watch and Henry Paulson warned this week to prepare for a vicious bond crash. Bitcoin broke out with a weekly MACD buy signal, Ethereum took out March highs, and as negative real rates approach, digital assets become the release valve for a world where governments can't cut rates and can't afford the debt.
Timestamps
• (00:00–03:08) Markets: S&P new all-time highs, up three weeks in a row; NASDAQ 100 RSI oversold-to-overbought in 11 sessions (40-year record); CTA buying flipped from massive selling; factor volatility remains extreme while index vol stays low.
• (03:27–05:17) Regime positioning: Year-to-date leaders are energy, semis, capital goods, materials, a reflationary, stagflation-leaning industrial scarcity regime. Jensen Huang: "You need power, you need chips, you need engineers."
• (05:35–07:24) Volatility dynamics: Unprecedented RSI moves, CTA positioning swings, and why index vol is misleading, the real story is rotational factor volatility, not directional S&P risk.
• (09:22–12:08) Model portfolio & technicals: Packaging, semi, optical, and rack names hitting new highs; new weekly technical scoring system for subscribers covering RSI, moving averages, and momentum.
• (13:02–16:18) Earnings risk & inflation: Philly Fed new orders jumped to highest since 2021; earnings revisions turned negative for second week; Anthropic's revenue acceleration could signal software cancellation risk; S&P returns historically poor when CPI above 4%.
• (16:37–19:23) Inflation deepening: UMich sentiment, gas prices rising, plastics and fertilizer input costs, semiconductor prices surging; Europe down to six weeks of jet fuel; oil's longer-dated curve reset 25% higher.
• (19:23–23:57) Chipflation & physical constraints: Korea warns of AI-driven memory and chip price surges; import/export inflation explosive; bond yields trending higher; Henry Paulson warns of bond crash; the physical world cannot keep up with AI's pace.
• (24:19–26:12) Wealth taxes & token shortage: Wealth tax stories spreading (California, New York, Switzerland); Dylan Patel on CPU shortages, "in a true AI gold rush, almost any decent chip can find demand."
• (26:35–33:01) Compute crunch in detail: Oracle reframed as compute company; Anthropic uptime issues; Uber CTO maxed AI budget; Nvidia chip prices +48%; CoreWeave revenue from $9B to $30B annualized; data center delays affecting ~80% of US pipeline.
• (33:24–37:07) Terra Fab & edge devices: Elon says current fabs are 2% of what's needed; building fab the size of San Francisco; $5–13T capex; 68-company edge device investment universe mapped.
• (37:27–41:26) Jensen Huang & energy: Jensen and Musk converge on energy as the downstream bottleneck; power theme names are a gift on the dip; added more Nvidia; batteries (EOS, Fluence) becoming critical.
• (43:18–44:40) Bitcoin & crypto: Bitcoin breaking out with weekly MACD buy signal; Ethereum broke trendline and March highs; negative real rates approaching; Bitcoin as the release valve when governments can't cut and can't pay the debt.