Shift your portfolio from software to the physical infrastructure of AI by going long on hardware leaders like NVIDIA (NVDA), which remains attractively valued at roughly 20x 2027 earnings.

Prioritize Bitcoin (BTC) as a hedge against negative real yields and potential AI-driven cybersecurity vulnerabilities in traditional banking software.

Invest in the "Green Compute" theme by targeting Brazil (EWZ), which offers the renewable energy and geopolitical stability required for massive data center expansion.

Position in industrial commodities, specifically Silver, and physical "picks and shovels" like Corning (GLW) to capitalize on the urgent demand for optical fiber and cooling technology.

Avoid the S&P 500 as a primary benchmark and reduce exposure to traditional software and private credit, as these sectors face disruption from advanced agentic AI models like Anthropic’s Mythos.

This investment analysis is based on the market outlook provided by Jordi Visser, focusing on the transition from "Abundance" (software/code) to "Scarcity" (physical infrastructure/commodities) driven by rapid AI advancements.

The "Scarcity" vs. "Abundance" Theme

The core thesis is a structural shift in the market. The "Abundance" trade (software, private equity, and traditional financials) is being disrupted by AI, while the "Scarcity" trade (hardware, energy, and commodities) is entering a bull market.

Takeaways

• Avoid the S&P 500 as a Benchmark: The index is becoming a poor gauge of true market health due to the massive divergence between winning and losing sectors.
• Short Software, Long Hardware: The "Physical World Upgrade" is the dominant theme. Invest in the physical requirements of AI rather than the code built upon it.
• Inflationary Environment: Expect a 1970s-style environment with rising CPI. Position in assets that benefit from rising PMIs and commodity shortages.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin is identified as a primary beneficiary of the current macro environment, specifically as a hedge against "negative real yields" (when inflation is higher than interest rates).

Takeaways

• Break in Correlation: Bitcoin is decoupling from software stocks. While software is falling due to AI disruption, Bitcoin is rising.
• The "Safe Haven" Shift: As AI (specifically the "Mythos" model) increases hacking risks for traditional banking software, Bitcoin’s cryptography becomes more attractive to institutional capital.
• Macro Timing: The "Quadrant of Returns" suggests the best time to own Bitcoin is when the Fed is on hold and real yields turn negative—a shift expected in the coming months.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Despite being a massive winner already, the sentiment remains bullish due to "Multiple Compression"—the stock is getting cheaper relative to its massive earnings growth.

Takeaways

• Valuation: NVIDIA’s 2027 Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio has sunk to its lowest level in a decade (around 20x), making it a value play within a growth sector.
• Inference Explosion: Demand for "Inference" (AI reasoning and planning) is growing faster than the market anticipated, ensuring a long runway for hardware demand.

Anthropic "Mythos" & AI Agents

The leak of Anthropic’s "Mythos" model is cited as a "black swan" event for the software industry.

Takeaways

• Software Disruption: Mythos represents "Recursive Self-Improvement," where AI can find and exploit software vulnerabilities faster than humans. This puts traditional software companies and cybersecurity at extreme risk.
• Agentic AI: We are moving from AI that answers prompts to "Agents" that execute tasks. This requires massive amounts of compute, memory, and power.
• Investment Shift: Move away from "Hyperscalers" (Microsoft, Google) which face multiple compression, and toward the "Picks and Shovels" (Semis, Cooling, Power).

Brazil (EWZ)

Brazil is highlighted as a "Green Compute" powerhouse and a safer alternative to Middle Eastern data center hubs.

Takeaways

• Energy Abundance: Brazil has a surplus of clean, renewable energy, which is the primary requirement for massive AI data centers.
• Geopolitical Safety: As conflicts in the Middle East threaten data centers in the UAE, capital is shifting toward Latin America (specifically Brazil and Mexico).
• Bullish Signal: EWZ is approaching 5-year highs; it is a key component of a diversified AI infrastructure basket.

Commodities & Physical Infrastructure

A "Thematic Basket" of 100 names was mentioned, focusing on the physical requirements of the AI era.

Takeaways

• Silver: Identified as the "favorite commodity" for the AI trade due to its industrial necessity in electronics and green energy.
• The "RAC" (Rack) Components: Focus on companies providing:
  • Optical Fibers: (e.g., Corning)
  • Advanced Packaging and Memory (due to severe shortages).
  • Power & Cooling: AI factories generate immense heat; cooling technology is a critical bottleneck.
• Electrical Components: Shortages in aluminum, copper, and electrical parts are expected to persist, driving prices higher.

Healthcare: Eli Lilly (LLY)

A rare non-tech mention driven by the intersection of biotech and AI.

Takeaways

• AI Drug Discovery: Beyond the success of weight-loss drugs (GLP-1s), Lilly is a leader in using AI for drug discovery, which shortens the path to market for new treatments.
• Chart Reset: The stock has recently undergone a price reset, offering a potential entry point for a long-term thematic hold.

Risk Factors

• Private Credit Crisis: A "Ponzi-like" risk in private equity/credit where redemptions are being limited. Since these funds are heavily exposed to software, a downturn in software valuations could trigger a credit cycle crash.
• Systematic Strategy Failure: 2024 is expected to be a "painful year" for trend-following (CTA) and systematic strategies due to high volatility and lack of smooth trends.
• Cybersecurity: The "Mythos" model's ability to hack software thought to be safe for decades poses a systemic risk to the digital economy.