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threadguy

by @notthreadguy

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Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.
Ask about threadguyAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

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The OFFICIAL 2026 Crypto Predictions... ft. Polymarket & Delphi

Analysts highlight MetaDAO (META) as a top conviction trade for 2026, targeting a $1 billion valuation by aiming to give tokens stronger economic rights. Consider Hyperliquid (HYPE) as a core long-term holding, as it dominates the on-chain perpetuals market with an estimated 60% market share. An opportunity may exist in PumpFun (PUMP), which uses its massive daily revenue for token buybacks, despite its price being significantly down from its peak. For broader exposure to innovation in trading applications, look to the Solana (SOL) ecosystem, which is expected to regain momentum and host future growth. Ultimately, focus on these "serious business coins" with clear revenue streams, as they are increasingly outperforming projects based on hype alone.

Why ZCash CRASHED Over 30% in 1 Day (Mert)

The recent 30% price drop in Zcash (ZEC) appears to be a market overreaction to misinformation, presenting a potential investment opportunity. The core development team did not leave the project but strategically restructured into a for-profit company, which is a significant bullish catalyst. This change allows the team to raise capital, accelerate development, and build market-driven products like the Zashi wallet. With a long-term vision for massive scaling and quantum-proof security, some analysts see a potential 10x upside for ZEC. Investors interested in the privacy coin sector could view the current price as an attractive entry point given these positive fundamental changes.

How He Made $1,000,000+ From ONE PIECE Cards

Consider Bitcoin (BTC) as long as it holds above the key $78k support level, with a potential price target of $145k-$150k. For a more established collectible play, look to buy vintage Pokémon cards during the current market correction ahead of the brand's upcoming 30th anniversary catalyst. High-risk investors could explore rare One Piece "manga" cards, which have seen explosive growth due to extremely low supply and strong underlying demand. It is advised to avoid new positions in Gold and Silver, as the risk-reward is no longer favorable after their recent record-setting performance. To preserve capital from more speculative ventures, consider parking profits in luxury watches like Patek Philippe or Rolex.

Highlight: ColdBloodedShiller

Highlight: ColdBloodedShiller

168 days agothreadguy@notthreadguy
YouTube57 min 59 sec

Consider a long position in Bitcoin (BTC), which shows bullish technicals and has a price target of $145k by March, using a close below $78k as a clear invalidation point. For a longer-term collectibles play, accumulate vintage Pokémon cards from the pre-2006 era during the current market dip ahead of the major 30th-anniversary catalyst. Investors seeking higher growth in collectibles could focus on the rarest One Piece cards, specifically the low-supply manga cards, but should be aware of the risk of a short-term correction. Avoid chasing recent performance in Gold and Silver, as the significant rally may be over and better opportunities exist elsewhere. To preserve capital, consider parking funds in physical assets like Patek Philippe or Rolex watches, which can act as a store of value.

Everything We're Leaving in 2025... (and bringing to 2026)

Consider investing in the alcohol sector, which is believed to have hit a generational bottom and is poised for a major recovery leading into 2026. In the automotive market, favor utility vehicle manufacturers like Ford (F), Toyota (TM), and Stellantis (STLA) over luxury brands such as Ferrari (RACE). Avoid the cannabis sector, as it is projected to remain in a bear market for another five to six years. Be cautious of companies reliant on the streetwear fashion trend, which is predicted to enter a long-term, multi-year decline. Finally, expect significant headwinds for consumer app-based companies, with strong bearish sentiment on dating apps like those from Match Group (MTCH) and food delivery services like DoorDash (DASH).

This is KILLING Crypto... (rant)
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The OFFICIAL 2025 Crypto Awards (FULL VOD)
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Cupsey & Jack Duval on Memecoins, Crypto's Future, and More | TG Podcast

The meme coin market is currently in a high-risk decline due to a lack of new capital, making it an area to avoid. A much stronger investment theme is prediction markets, where platforms like Polymarket are showing significant growth driven by professional marketing and execution. Investors should be cautious with the PUMP token, as the platform's refusal to reinvest its massive profits into ecosystem growth is a major risk factor. When analyzing individual coins, use a stagnant holder count as a key red flag that a project has failed to achieve broader adoption. Consider looking for opportunities outside of this sector, as better risk-reward trades may exist in other asset classes.

OpenAI doesn't want you to know this.

The analysis highlights significant brand risk for the private AI leader OpenAI, suggesting its market dominance could attract negative sentiment and regulatory challenges. As an alternative to the dominant player, consider the competitive landscape, where rivals may have a stronger long-term brand reputation. Specifically, the AI model Claude, developed by Anthropic, is identified as a key competitor with a more favorable perception. To gain indirect exposure to Anthropic's growth, investors can look to its publicly traded backers, Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL). Always be cautious of narrative-driven speculation in the AI sector and focus on companies with strong fundamentals.

Why Prediction Markets Are Taking Over... (Tulip King)

Consider Bitcoin (BTC) a core long-term holding, as its primary catalyst is the anticipated growth of the stablecoin market to over $5 trillion. Be cautious with long-term investments in the DeFi sector, including tokens like Hyperliquid (HYPE), as emerging zero-fee competitors are expected to erode protocol revenues. Explore opportunities on prediction markets like Polymarket, which are viewed as a fundamental new financial primitive with significant growth potential. One advanced strategy involves structuring a trade around the upcoming Lighter token launch, betting against its airdrop while simultaneously betting on its market cap exceeding $1 billion. For a long-term hedge against potential risks to Bitcoin, such as quantum computing, consider a small allocation to Zcash (ZEC), but be prepared for significant volatility.

This 1 Pokemon Card Made Him $1,000,000

Extreme caution is advised for memecoins tied to viral internet trends on Solana, as they are considered highly speculative and likely to follow a "hype-and-dump" pattern. These creator-backed coins are predicted to crash significantly, potentially over 90%, once the initial attention fades. In contrast, the physical 1st Edition Fossil Kabuto Pokémon card provides a case study in a successful, though risky, alternative investment. A focused collector drove the card's price from approximately $1 to $43, demonstrating how cornering the market on a niche collectible can yield dramatic returns. While the Solana ecosystem hosts institutional-grade projects, investors should be aware it is also a fertile ground for these high-risk speculative assets.

The Greatest Crypto Debate You NEED To Watch... (Haseeb vs Santiago)

Given their high valuations, consider reducing exposure to major Layer 1 blockchains like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). The most compelling investment opportunities may be in the application layer, which captures the majority of network fees at a fraction of the market capitalization. Focus on protocols with strong revenue and reasonable valuations, a strategy that favors investing in profitable businesses over the underlying infrastructure. For example, Ethena (ENA) was highlighted as a specific opportunity, noted for its fast growth and sensible 8x price-to-sales ratio. This approach suggests better risk-adjusted returns can be found in DeFi applications rather than the Layer 1 tokens themselves.

Taiki: $1.5M ETH Short, Market Sentiment, Bull vs Bear and More | TG Podcast

In this bearish market, prioritize capital preservation as the best opportunities may not appear for another 6-12 months. Consider that Ethereum (ETH) is a poor investment right now and could fall back to the $2,500 level. Expect Bitcoin (BTC) to eventually revisit its 200-week moving average, presenting a potential buying opportunity around the $60,000 price level. Focus on Airdrop Farming as a key strategy, particularly within the Perpetual DEXes sector, which is expected to see significant growth. Keep an eye on the upcoming project Lidar, as its Token Generation Event (TGE) may offer a prime buying opportunity, especially if it launches during a market panic.

Murad: $10M+ Bitcoin Price Target, Memecoins in 2026, Murad's List and More | TG Podcast

Consider allocating 20-30% of your portfolio to Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term savings vehicle to hedge against currency devaluation. A key risk indicator for the current cycle would be a monthly price close below $60,000. The highest conviction speculative bet is SPX 6900 (SPX), a narrative-driven asset with a price target of $100 in this cycle. For traditional equity exposure, MicroStrategy (MSTR) is presented as a leveraged way to invest in Bitcoin's future. The core strategy is to favor belief-driven assets with strong communities over revenue-generating protocols, which are viewed as having limited long-term upside.

Maz: Phantom's NEW Trading Terminal, Building in Crypto and More | TG Podcast

Consider the long-term bullish case for Solana (SOL), as key ecosystem players demonstrate strong conviction by building new infrastructure. Major wallet provider Phantom is launching advanced trading tools, signaling a deep investment in the chain's future success. The current price of $135 during a period of low volume may present a strategic accumulation opportunity for long-term investors. This "build during the quiet times" strategy is a bullish indicator for the entire Solana DeFi and trading sector. Investors with a multi-year horizon could view this as a chance to gain exposure to SOL before the on-chain trading market matures further.

OSF_Rekt: Why REKT Crashed Explained, Crypto Market Update and More | TG Podcast

The recent 75% price crash in the REKT token presents a potential buying opportunity, as it was caused by a technical deleveraging event rather than a fundamental flaw in the project. The company is demonstrating strong business fundamentals with its beverage line now available in nearly 200 Giant Eagle stores, marking a major retail expansion. An investment in REKT is a long-term bet on the team's ability to capture a share of the high-growth functional beverage market, where competitors like Celsius (CELH) have achieved multi-billion dollar valuations. Future growth catalysts include a planned partnership with FaZe Esports and the launch of new energy drink products next year. This event is a prime example of an opportunity to acquire a fundamentally sound project at a significant discount after a market structure failure.

Arthur Hayes: BTC Price Targets, Trading Advice, Bear Market and More | TG Podcast

Given the expectation of increased global money printing, accumulate Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term store of value to protect against inflation. For a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, consider a speculative position in Zcash (ZEC), which is seen as a major play on the future demand for financial privacy. Focus on the "Real Yield" theme by investing in tokens like Uniswap (UNI) that are beginning to share protocol revenue directly with holders. Complement your crypto holdings with physical gold and gold miners, as they offer a similar hedge against currency debasement. The core strategy is to view current market weakness as a buying opportunity across these assets ahead of anticipated central bank easing.

Ejaaz: EXPOSING The AI Bubble, Sam Altman, Nvidia vs Google and More | TG Podcast

The primary investment thesis is the massive, unmet demand for AI compute, with NVIDIA (NVDA) being the foundational way to gain exposure. Consider Google (GOOGL) as a strong, vertically integrated AI play, as its recent price dip may present a buying opportunity. For a broader tech portfolio, Meta (META) is also highlighted as an attractive entry point following its recent pullback. Conversely, Apple (AAPL) is viewed as a laggard in the AI race and a less attractive investment within this theme. For higher-risk investors, explore the emerging decentralized compute sector in crypto by watching projects like Akash (AKT).

Bawdy: ZEC vs XMR, Dark Markets, Monero's Bull Case and More | TG Podcast

Consider Monero (XMR) as a long-term investment in the growing privacy sector, valued for its strong fundamentals and organic adoption. A major catalyst is the upcoming full chain membership proofs (FCMP) upgrade, expected within 6 to 9 months, which aims to significantly enhance its privacy technology. Unlike competitor Zcash (ZEC), Monero has a proven circular economy with tens of thousands of daily private transactions. Due to limited exchange availability, investors can acquire XMR through platforms like Kraken or via in-wallet swaps. This investment is positioned as a strategic holding for financial privacy rather than a short-term speculative trade.

Dan Smith: ORE Explained, Crypto's Future, Blockworks Data and More | TG Podcast

Consider the high-risk token ORE, as its revenue remains strong despite a recent price drop; its performance over the next few days will be a critical test of its gaming-based model. For a pure narrative play on financial privacy, look into Zcash (ZEC), which could strengthen with any news of increased government financial oversight. Watch for the upcoming token launch of Humidify on the Jupiter launchpad, as it is a dominant on-chain market maker with massive trading volume. The "fee switch" proposal for Uniswap (UNI) is a major short-term catalyst that could tie the token's value directly to protocol revenue if it passes. Lastly, in the lending sector, Spark (SPK) presents a potential value play on the modular lending theme at a lower valuation than the current leader, Morpho (MORPHO).