TBPN
Podcast

TBPN

by John Coogan & Jordi Hays

459 episodes

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
Ask about TBPNAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

Recent Posts

459 posts
Open Source vs. Closed Source, NVIDIA Backs SSI, YC Startup School Fills Stadium | Diet TBPN

Investors should buy NVIDIA (NVDA) to capitalize on its hardware dominance, which remains fully insulated as both open-source and closed-source AI developers rely entirely on its GPUs. Buy **Microsoft (MSFT) **to capture value across the entire artificial intelligence market, as its strategic positioning covers both proprietary models and open-source security coalitions. Accumulate shares of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) to leverage its growing integration within critical national security and enterprise software infrastructure through the new Open Secure AI Alliance. Watch for potential future public offerings from private entities like Safe Superintelligence (SSI), whose massive computing expansion backed by Nvidia signals long-term growth potential in frontier research. Both Nvidia and Microsoft serve as top-tier, immediate portfolio additions for investors looking to hedge their bets across competing AI ecosystems over the next 12 months.

Letter Enthusiasts, Open Source vs. Closed Source, Mega-Startup School | Luke Knight & Ronan Chambers, Gary Vaynerchuk, Jonathan Jacobi, Dean Meyer, Brent Franson, Matej Cernosek, Justin Boitano

Capitalize on the ongoing regulatory pushback by major tech firms by holding **NVIDIA (**ticker: NVDA) as it leads the Open Secure AI Alliance to protect open-source infrastructure. Monitor enterprise adoption of hybrid AI strategies, combining open models with proprietary tools for cost-effective scaling. Watch for commercial logistics and health partnerships as Enigma transitions its newly funded robotics platform from research to market. Track defense technology leaders as startups like Adrenum validate underwater domain awareness hardware through successful government deployments. Finally, capitalize on the shift toward preventative healthcare by observing consumer adoption trends in direct-to-order blood testing platforms like Death Clock.

AMD Advancing AI, Google Q2 Earnings, OpenAI Plans $750B Cloud Spend | Diet TBPN

AMD presents a strong growth opportunity in AI infrastructure following its $5 billion partnership with Anthropic and Frontier Lab to deploy the MI450 accelerator.

Alphabet (GOOGL) remains a solid buy as Google Cloud surges 82% year-over-year to $24.8 billion, driven by massive enterprise adoption of TPU systems.

Expect near-term cash flow pressure for GOOGL due to aggressive data center investments, but these outlays position the company well for long-term AI dominance.

OpenAI's massive commitment to scale compute spending to $750 billion through 2030 will serve as a major tailwind for underlying hardware suppliers.

AMD CEO Lisa Su Live on TBPN | Oliver Cameron, Mohammad Norouzi, Anjney Midha, Lisa Su

Buy Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to capitalize on its newly announced $5 billion deal with Anthropic and growing data center market share. Accumulate Alphabet / Google (GOOGL) following its strong Q2 report, which featured a massive 24% year-over-year revenue growth driven by its accelerating cloud business. Position in Microsoft (MSFT) to indirectly capture the massive upside from OpenAI, which recently boosted its projected cloud compute spending to $750 billion through 2030. Focus on these AI infrastructure leaders over the next multi-year timeframe as enterprise adoption and token processing volumes scale rapidly.

AI Agents Hack Hugging Face, White House Promotes Science’s Golden Age | Diet TBPN

Investors should buy Palo Alto Networks (PANW) as the recent breakthrough of AI models escaping sandboxes forces enterprises to dramatically increase cybersecurity spending. Additionally, accumulate shares of Microsoft (MSFT) to capitalize on surging commercial demand for advanced frontier models and robust enterprise AI security infrastructure. Expect heightened corporate investment in cloud-native defense systems over the next 12 to 18 months to protect against autonomous, AI-driven cyber threats. Look for upcoming opportunities in advanced manufacturing and biotechnology as the White House redirects roughly $200 billion in federal research funding directly to private industry partnerships.

Inside Travis Kalanick’s Wild New AI Company

While Pronto is private, its recent $1.7 billion raise signals massive institutional conviction in the physical AI and industrial automation sectors. Retail investors should look to gain exposure by researching public companies specializing in autonomous machinery, industrial robotics, and mining technology. When evaluating these opportunities, prioritize firms demonstrating successful full-stack deployment capabilities that combine proprietary hardware, sensors, and enterprise software. Focus your capital on market leaders that can seamlessly navigate complex enterprise change management and hardware integration in heavy industries. Finally, closely monitor regulatory developments and liability frameworks, as these policies will act as significant moats for dominant, well-capitalized industry players.

HackingFace, White House $5B AI Science Bet, Travis Kalanick Joins | Veeral Patel, Lin Qiao, Jason Fried, Travis Kalanick, Max Hodak

As autonomous AI capabilities rapidly scale, enterprises must urgently upgrade their cybersecurity defenses, creating a bullish sentiment for leading cloud security providers like Palo Alto Networks (PANW). Investors should look toward modern cloud-native platforms to capitalize on this mandatory spending shift. Simultaneously, the skyrocketing cost of corporate AI adoption makes efficient infrastructure players like Shopify (SHOP) strong picks for foundational commerce and software exposure. Investors should also monitor automotive dominance in the electric vehicle market, where Tesla (TSLA) remains a top pick for its manufacturing scale and the benchmark Model Y.

U.S. AI Execs Warn as China’s AI Push Grows, Substack Adds AI Detection Tool | Diet TBPN

NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a top pick as the essential hardware provider for all AI, with its new Nemotron model gaining traction and the rise of cheap open-source models likely boosting long-term demand for its GPUs. Alibaba (BABA) offers a high-risk, high-reward play on Chinese AI through its own Qwen model and stake in Moonshot AI, but the stock faces major volatility depending on potential US sanctions. The upcoming IPOs of OpenAI and Anthropic should be treated with caution, as the trend of powerful, low-cost open models threatens to commoditize their core business and compress margins. For a more stable AI investment, the "picks and shovels" theme favors compute and cloud providers like Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Google (GOOGL), which benefit from increased AI usage regardless of which model wins. Google also has a new, modestly positive catalyst with its low-cost cybersecurity AI models, which could strengthen its cloud business by challenging expensive incumbents.

China's AI Push Sounds Alarms, Airplane Seat Debate, Chris Best Joins | Ferdinand Dabitz, Kaiwei Tang, Steven Schwartz, Katie Roof, Zavain Dar, Chad Edwards
  • NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the highest-conviction AI beneficiary as GPU demand thrives regardless of which model wins, with the added catalyst of its own Nemotron model gaining traction.
  • Favor AI infrastructure plays like data center REITs and neo-cloud providers, where value should accrue as model-level competition intensifies and margins compress.
  • Avoid or reduce IMAX (IMAX) — the discovery that it can’t manufacture new premium projectors bottlenecks its highest-margin growth and pressures long-term revenue.
  • Trade Alibaba (BABA) around volatility from U.S.–China AI regulatory headlines: buy a dip if bullish on Chinese tech, but use tight stops given high geopolitical risk.
  • Watch for Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs in the coming year — a U.S. ban on Chinese models would create a moat, but if not, their pricing power and valuations may falter.
Kimi K3 Reactions, The Odyssey Hits $264M in Debut, Netflix Embraces AI | Diet TBPN

The massive scale of the Kimi K3 model reinforces a strong "buy" case for NVIDIA (NVDA), as its 2.8 trillion parameters require high-end NVL72 systems and massive memory capacity to function. To capitalize on the inevitable rise in AI-driven cyberattacks from open-source models, investors should prioritize defensive positions in Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD). Netflix (NFLX) remains a top pick for margin expansion as it aggressively integrates generative AI into 300+ productions to lower costs and improve content ROI. While Comcast (CMCSA) benefits from blockbuster hits like "The Odyssey," the "director-as-franchise" trend provides a more direct tailwind for IMAX, which captures premium pricing from these cinematic events. For long-term infrastructure plays, focus on the "real-world bottleneck" by investing in companies controlled by Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) that possess the massive capital necessary to secure land, power, and data center permits.

The AI Cold War, Odyssey Rips, Tyler Cowen Joins | Danny Yeung, Connor Love, Kahlil Lalji, Tarek Mansour, Tony Zhao

The rapid advancement of open-source AI models like Kimi K3 validates a bullish outlook for NVIDIA (NVDA), as these massive 2.8-trillion-parameter models require high-end hardware and advanced networking bandwidth to function. Investors should capitalize on the severe compute shortage by targeting AI-driven cybersecurity leaders like Palo Alto Networks (PANW) and CrowdStrike (CRWD) to hedge against sophisticated open-source hacking threats. The "boring" side of AI infrastructure offers significant upside, specifically in data center real estate and power grid providers like Iron Mountain (IRM). Prenetics (PRE) presents a high-conviction opportunity in the consumer health space, as its IM8 brand is scaling toward $200M in annual revenue while potentially remaining undervalued by public markets. For those seeking sophisticated exposure, Kalshi’s new GPU Futures allow for direct speculation on the future cost of compute, which is emerging as a massive new commodity asset class.

Tyler Cowen Doesn't Think America Should Ban Chinese AI Models

Investors should prioritize Data Centers and Chip Manufacturing as the essential "picks and shovels" for the AI era, as infrastructure remains the most reliable bottleneck for growth. Avoid traditional European Automakers due to structural threats from Chinese competitors like BYD and the high risk of retaliatory trade tariffs. Look for high-growth opportunities in Eastern European tech hubs, specifically Estonia, where a rising class of "AI maniacs" is building lean, high-revenue startups. Monitor gambling platforms like DraftKings for regulatory risks, as potential advertising restrictions and state-level tax hikes could impact margins. Maintain a contrarian bullish stance on the broader market, as the current "vibe session" of negative sentiment often masks resilient economic data and creates "buy the dip" opportunities.

Thinking Machines’ First AI Model, California Loses $3.2B to Texas, TSMC Adds $100B | Diet TBPN

Investors should prioritize TSMC (TSM) as a dominant "picks and shovels" play following their $100 billion commitment to U.S. infrastructure, signaling massive long-term demand for AI hardware. The release of the Inkling model by Thinking Machines Lab marks a pivotal shift toward open-weight AI; investors should favor companies utilizing this "Red Hat" business model over closed-source "walled gardens." Disney (DIS) presents a complex valuation case, as its current market cap sits below the inflation-adjusted cost of its core acquisitions, suggesting the market is prioritizing operational efficiency over IP ownership. In the defense and manufacturing sectors, look for opportunities in Texas-based projects like Sironic, which are benefiting from "industrial flight" and faster regulatory approvals compared to California. Finally, watch for a transformation in the advertising sector as premium brands like Lexus move away from traditional spots toward deep, network-style integrations with top-tier digital creators.

TML Inkling, California Forever?, TSMC Capex | David Baszucki, Everett Randle, Eric Glyman, Jordan Black

Investors should consider TSMC (TSM) as a long-term play on AI infrastructure, using recent market volatility as an entry point while the company aggressively expands its U.S. manufacturing footprint. Roblox (RBLX) offers a unique opportunity in the gaming sector, as its vertically integrated data centers and new AI-powered creation tools provide a significant cost advantage over competitors reliant on expensive cloud providers. For those tracking the "American Dynamism" theme, keep a close watch on the defense and aerospace supply chain, specifically companies like Senra Systems that are modernizing high-tech manufacturing for the $165 billion wire harness market. In the software space, prioritize "Application Layer" companies that are protecting their profit margins by migrating high-volume tasks from expensive frontier models to efficient, open-source alternatives like Inkling. As AI token spending grows exponentially, businesses that implement cost-management tools like Ramp to optimize their AI budgets will likely outperform peers facing ballooning operational expenses.

Stripe’s $53B PayPal Offer, OpenAI’s First Device, TBPN’s New Business Ideas | Diet TBPN

PayPal (PYPL) represents a high-conviction "distressed value" opportunity, currently trading at a significant discount with a strong 10% free cash flow yield. Investors should watch for a potential acquisition floor near $60.50 per share following rumored interest from Stripe, though major shareholders are targeting a recovery into the mid-$70s. The fintech sector is entering a consolidation phase where legacy giants like PayPal are prime targets for modern firms or major banks like JPMorgan Chase seeking consumer data and Venmo’s user base. In the private markets, OpenAI is pivoting toward "agentic hardware" with a screenless AI home companion designed by Jony Ive, signaling a major shift from software to physical AI devices. For those looking at the next evolution of transport, niche Electric Vehicles (EVs) like Chip Motors are emerging as a high-growth category, focusing on affordable, AI-integrated neighborhood transit rather than traditional long-range cars.

Stripe x PayPal, Codex Micro, Saagar Enjeti Joins | George Kailas, Mukund Jha, Russ Tedrake, Glenn Youngkin

Investors should consider PayPal (PYPL) as a distressed value play, as the stock currently offers a high 10% free cash flow yield and is a prime acquisition target for Stripe at a rumored $60.50 per share. While management aims for a $70+ recovery price, the 28% premium offered by Stripe creates a clear short-term valuation floor for shareholders. For long-term exposure to the AI infrastructure boom, focus on the Data Center sector, which is receiving $700 billion in annual CapEx and strong bipartisan political support as a national strategic priority. High-growth opportunities are emerging in Small Business AI, where companies like Emergent are replacing traditional software with AI-native applications for mid-sized firms. Finally, monitor the 2026 hardware roadmap for OpenAI, as their partnership with Johnny Ive signals a major move to challenge Apple and Amazon in the smart home market.

IBM's AI Rollercoaster, Demis Calls for AI Watchdog, NY Pauses AI Data Centers | Diet TBPN

Investors should monitor IBM for a recovery signal through Red Hat OpenShift growth, though the stock faces immediate pressure as capital shifts toward Nvidia (NVDA) and AI-specific hardware. The push for "Frontier" AI regulation favors large-cap incumbents like Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), who possess the budgets to navigate complex compliance hurdles that may stifle smaller competitors. Increased focus on AI-driven national security threats reinforces a bullish long-term outlook for the Cybersecurity sector, specifically leaders like CrowdStrike (CRWD). Be cautious with data center REITs exposed to New York due to new environmental moratoriums, and instead look toward Clean Energy and Grid Modernization firms essential for future buildouts. While humanoid robotics capture headlines, the "Social Robot" niche offers a faster, lower-cost path to mass consumer adoption for those seeking early-stage Consumer AI exposure.

IBM Nukes, Demis Govt Plan, Paramount WBD Deep Dive | Dylan Byers, Noah Schochet, Saam Motamedi, Ioannis Antonoglou, Jack Dent, Evan Burns & Jamie Seltzer, Tyler Page

Investors should consider rotating away from IBM, as the stock faces structural risks from a 25% price reset and a loss of market share to specialized AI hardware providers. Instead, look toward Cypher Digital, which is scaling a massive 4.2 gigawatt data center portfolio in West Texas to capitalize on the high demand for AI infrastructure and power-ready sites. For those interested in the "AI-reset" of traditional industries, Chai Discovery and Terra Firma represent high-conviction plays in AI-driven drug discovery and robotic construction automation. Monitor the Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) and Paramount (PARA) merger closely, as its success depends on overcoming significant regulatory hurdles and servicing $80 billion in debt through consolidation. Finally, focus geographic investment on Texas, Virginia, and Georgia, as regulatory moratoriums in states like New York are pushing data center development toward these more favorable regions.

Apple Sues OpenAI, Experts Sign Another AI Warning Letter, Paramount Threatens CA Exit | Diet TBPN

Investors should prepare for long-term volatility in Apple (AAPL) as its "thermonuclear" trade secret lawsuit against OpenAI threatens to delay product cycles and highlights a significant internal talent drain. While Apple remains a defensive play, the emergence of OpenAI as a hardware competitor suggests a strategic shift toward a "post-smartphone" era that could disrupt the iPhone franchise. In the media sector, the $110 billion merger between Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and Paramount (PARA) faces high execution risk due to antitrust challenges from California, potentially leading to a massive relocation of production hubs to Georgia or Texas. For those tracking the AI Sector, expect increased regulatory pressure and social backlash over the next decade as researchers warn of rapid, large-scale job displacement. Finally, SpaceX continues to widen its competitive moat in space logistics, with new infrastructure designed to support unprecedented hourly launch frequencies.

Apple vs OpenAI, Paramount Threatens to Leave CA, Mark Gurman Joins | Alexis Ohanian, Morgan Housel, Nico Christie & Michael Jarman

Investors should consider Apple (AAPL) a defensive play as it uses aggressive litigation to protect its iPhone margins and slow OpenAI’s hardware development, though a projected $150–$200 price hike this fall will test consumer loyalty. To hedge against AI-driven content saturation, allocate capital toward live sports and entertainment assets like UFC or Formula 1, which are seeing massive valuation booms due to their scarcity and "human-only" experience. For growth, prioritize equities over residential real estate, as stocks now represent the primary vehicle for U.S. household wealth creation despite increased market volatility. Monitor Paramount Global (PARA) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) for potential geographic shifts in production to tax-friendly hubs like Georgia if California regulators continue to block their $110B merger. Finally, rather than participating in the "hyper-financialization" of sports as a bettor, investors should focus on the "house" by owning shares in established gambling platforms to capture consistent revenue from market saturation.