TBPN
Podcast

TBPN

by John Coogan & Jordi Hays

338 episodes

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
Ask about TBPNAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

Recent Posts

338 posts
Thoma Bravo Loses Medallia, OpenAI Drops ChatGPT 5.5, Bob Iger Returns | Diet TBPN

Investors should exercise caution with highly-leveraged SaaS companies like Medallia and Qualtrics, as they face disruption from AI-native startups and rising interest costs. Intel (INTC) is showing momentum in the data center space with Q2 revenue guidance of $13.8B–$14.8B, though its high 100x P/E ratio suggests significant volatility if growth slows. Tesla (TSLA) remains a hold for those focused on fundamentals, as the company beat Q1 earnings expectations while management shifts toward a more realistic, cautious tone on timelines. Meta (META) continues to be a strong play for margin expansion, as its 10% workforce reduction signals a pivot toward high-priority AI projects and increased profitability. For long-term growth, prioritize the "Agent" Era by investing in AI companies that automate complex workflows and provide cybersecurity to prevent "distillation" IP theft.

Meet the New Thiel Fellows, GPT 5.5, Thoma Bravo Loses Medallia | Victor Boyd, Alex Shieh, Nick Dobroshinsky, Ishan Gupta, Antoni Kiszka, Milan Lustig, Galen Mead, Aubrey Niederhoffer, Samuel Carvalho, Claire Wang

Investors should consider Intel (INTC) as a potential turnaround play following a strong earnings beat and Q2 guidance that significantly exceeded Wall Street estimates. The release of GPT 5.5 signals a major shift toward "agentic" AI workflows, creating opportunities in companies that automate complex tasks like Juicebox for recruiting or Anti-Fraud Company for government oversight. Be cautious with highly leveraged, non-founder-led software firms like Medallia, as high interest rates and AI-native competitors like Aru continue to threaten legacy SaaS business models. Tesla (TSLA) remains a core holding after beating revenue expectations, though investors should note that SpaceX is now trending toward a higher valuation than the automaker. For those looking at emerging markets, Brazil offers a compelling macro thesis due to its strong renewable energy infrastructure and B2B wholesale growth through startups like Praso.

SpaceX-Cursor Deal, ChatGPT Images 2.0, Fake Bear Scam | Diet TBPN

Accredited investors should look to secondary markets for SpaceX and Anthropic, as both are emerging as dominant AI infrastructure powerhouses with potential paths toward trillion-dollar valuations. The strategic partnership between SpaceX and Cursor (AnySphere) signals a massive shift toward "agentic coding," making Cursor a high-conviction play for enterprise AI adoption. Investors should anticipate a "clean sequence" merger of Elon Musk’s entities (xAI, X, and SpaceX), creating a vertically integrated ecosystem that uses massive compute power as its primary currency. Be cautious of traditional creative services and stock photography, as OpenAI’s latest image generation tools are rapidly demonetizing high-end commercial visuals. For long-term growth, monitor the "Space-as-Infrastructure" theme, specifically companies developing orbital data centers to bypass Earth-based power and regulatory constraints.

SpaceX/Cursor Deal, Images 2.0 Reactions, Fake Bear Attack | Anil Chakravarthy, Naveen Gavini, Avlok Kohli & Ankur Nagpal, Joel Edwards, Renen Hallak, Darian Shirazi

Retail investors can now gain diversified exposure to high-growth private AI leaders like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic through the USVC fund, which features a low $500 minimum investment. Adobe (ADBE) remains a high-conviction play in the creative sector, supported by a massive $25 billion stock buyback and its strategic acquisition of SEMrush to dominate AI-driven marketing. For those tracking the AI infrastructure boom, Vast Data and Zanskar represent critical "middle-layer" opportunities in data management and geothermal energy to solve the AI power bottleneck. SpaceX is positioning itself as a vertically integrated AI powerhouse through its potential $60 billion acquisition of Cursor, leveraging its "Colossus" supercomputer to challenge Microsoft and Google. Investors should remain cautious of traditional SaaS companies like Salesforce (CRM), as AI-driven coding reduces software moats and threatens long-term profit margins.

Apple’s New CEO John Ternus, Ferrari’s First EV | Diet TBPN

Investors should view the Apple (AAPL) CEO transition to John Ternus on September 1st as a stability play, as the move is already priced into the stock with no immediate volatility expected. With a hardware expert at the helm, focus on Apple's ability to develop proprietary AI models to replace Google Gemini and reduce reliance on third-party software. Ferrari (RACE) is entering the ultra-luxury EV market with a $650,000 model, a high-margin strategy that serves as a gateway for collectors to access future limited-edition releases. Monitor Ferrari closely for potential brand dilution or high depreciation risks as they pivot away from traditional internal combustion engines. For broader tech exposure, prioritize companies like Google (GOOGL) that maintain superior AI infrastructure and talent moats over firms struggling with hardware-centric legacy issues.

Tim Cook Retires, Mark Gurman Joins, Images 2.0 | Howie Liu, Scott Stevenson, Alex Wiltschko, Spiros Xanthos, Carolina Aguilar, Jake Jurewicz

Investors should view the leadership transition at Apple (AAPL) as a stability signal, with new CEO John Ternus likely to drive a hardware-led growth cycle featuring foldable iPhones and smart home robotics by 2026. For those tracking the AI sector, OpenAI’s launch of Images 2.0 marks a shift toward high-utility tools for marketing and design, while Airtable’s move into long-running AI agents makes it a resilient private enterprise play. The energy demands of AI data centers are creating a massive opportunity in nuclear energy, specifically through companies like Blue Energy that use prefabricated construction to lower costs. In the luxury market, Ferrari (RACE) is positioning its upcoming $650,000 EV as a strategic status symbol to maintain its exclusive collector ecosystem. Finally, when evaluating private software startups, prioritize "Live ARR" over "CARR" to ensure you are investing in actual cash flow rather than non-binding future contracts.

Marc Benioff vs. Verizon CEO Dan Schulman on AI, Blue Origin’s Latest Flight | Diet TBPN

Salesforce (CRM) presents a potential value entry point following a 28% year-to-date decline, especially as revenue growth re-accelerates and the company pivots toward autonomous AI with the launch of Agent Albert by year-end. For a more defensive play, Verizon (VZ) offers an infrastructure-backed "oligopoly" moat and has outperformed high-growth tech with a 15% gain this year while aggressively cutting costs. Investors should view the "SaaSpocalypse" narrative with skepticism, as high-conviction names like Snowflake (SNOW), Cloudflare (NET), and Monday.com (MNDY) continue to report robust growth between 25% and 34%. Sphere Entertainment Co. (SPHR) remains a high-momentum play in immersive tech; watch for announcements of new global locations as a primary catalyst for further upside. While AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) remains a retail favorite, recent satellite launch failures highlight significant execution risks, making it a high-volatility trade that requires careful position sizing.

Verizon vs Salesforce, Blue Origin's Test, Robot Marathon | Signüll, Ethan Ding, Matt McKinney, Errik Anderson, Pippa Lamb & James Wise

Investors should consider Verizon (VZ) as a defensive infrastructure play, as its ownership of physical spectrum and cell towers protects it from software-related AI disruption while the company aggressively cuts $9 billion in costs. For a high-growth physical asset, The Sphere (SPHR) has outperformed major tech stocks by 442% over the last year and offers a unique global expansion thesis for "proprietary stadium technology." While Salesforce (CRM) is down 28% year-to-date, it represents a contrarian opportunity if its new Agent Force and upcoming Agent Albert platforms successfully pivot the business from "per-seat" pricing to autonomous AI value. High-risk investors may find a buying opportunity in AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) following a 16% dip caused by a satellite launch failure, as the loss is expected to be covered by insurance. Finally, watch the Tech Bio sector for acquisition activity, as "Big Pharma" is currently sitting on record cash reserves to buy AI-driven drug development firms.

Jensen on Dwarkesh, Cursor x XAI, Netflix Stock Sinks | Diet TBPN

Investors should monitor NVIDIA (NVDA) closely for margin compression as "Hyperscalers" like Microsoft and Meta transition to proprietary chips like TPUs and Trainium to bypass high costs. While NVDA remains the market leader, its recent stagnant price action suggests a shift in value toward Intel (INTC), which serves as a strategic geopolitical hedge for domestic chip manufacturing. The recent 8.5% dip in Netflix (NFLX) following Reed Hastings' board departure presents a "buy the dip" opportunity, as the company’s disciplined content spending signals a transition to a highly profitable, mature tech play. In the broader AI sector, the focus is shifting from raw hardware to "AI Agents" and software ecosystems, favoring companies like Apple that integrate these tools directly into operating systems. For long-term exposure to the "American tech stack," Intel (INTC) remains the primary beneficiary of efforts to diversify the global supply chain away from TSMC.

Kevin Hart live on TBPN

Kevin Hart live on TBPN

Podcast23 min 20 sec

Investors should prioritize Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) brands that utilize a "Disruptor + Incumbent" model, pairing nimble creator-led marketing with the massive distribution power of established giants like Becle (Jose Cuervo). Focus on high-conviction "Owner-Operator" plays where celebrities like Kevin Hart or Kim Kardashian (Skims) hold significant equity and daily operational roles rather than simple endorsement deals. Within the spirits sector, look for brands achieving triple-digit growth like Grand Coramino, which leverages the Beckmann family global supply chain to overcome the industry's complex three-tier distribution hurdles. Monitor the migration of advertising capital away from traditional TV toward creator-led platforms and OpenAI integrations, as these "authentic" channels now drive the highest consumer engagement. Avoid "noisy" celebrity tequila startups that lack a unique "liquid story" or a physical presence in retail, as the market enters a period of heavy consolidation.

Jensen on Dwarkesh, Cursor + xAI, Codex Update | Kevin Hart & James Morrissey, Ben Smith, Jonathan Criss, Paul Scherer, Matan Grinberg, Akhil Voorakkara, Charlie Cheever, Victor Cardenas Codriansky, Theodor Marcu

Investors should monitor Alphabet (GOOGL) for a potential $100 billion valuation boost driven by its 5% stake in SpaceX as the aerospace giant nears a $2 trillion valuation. While NVIDIA (NVDA) remains dominant, watch for margin compression as AI coding agents make it easier for developers to switch to cheaper hardware alternatives like AMD or Google’s TPU. Intel (INTC) is emerging as a high-conviction recovery play, benefiting from national security interests and the push for American-made chip foundries. Netflix (NFLX) remains a strong long-term hold as it transitions into a high-margin, cash-flow-positive business, despite short-term volatility following Reed Hastings' departure from the board. For those looking at private markets or specialized tech, Ulysses and Factory represent high-growth opportunities in autonomous robotics and AI-driven software engineering.

Allbirds’ AI Pivot, Snap Cuts 16% of Workforce, Amazon’s GlobalStar Deal | Diet TBPN

Investors should monitor Snap Inc. (SNAP) as it pivots toward "profitable growth" by cutting 16% of its workforce to save $500 million annually, a move likely to improve net income margins by late 2024. Amazon (AMZN) is positioning itself as a major competitor to SpaceX by pursuing an $11 billion deal with Globalstar (GSAT), making GSAT a high-conviction play for those betting on the long-term "satellite-to-cell" infrastructure boom. While Allbirds (BIRD) is rebranding to New Bird AI to provide GPU-as-a-Service, this remains a highly speculative "meme" trade with significant execution risks and regulatory hurdles. For broader exposure to the space sector, watch for volatility in AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) as it faces increased competition from Amazon’s massive capital injection into the satellite market. The overarching theme for 2024 is a shift toward "efficiency" where companies use AI integration to justify leaner operations and higher profitability.

AI-Birds, Snap's Next Chapter, Amazon + Globalstar | Kiva Dickinson, Aron D'Souza, Michael Mignano, Wade Foster, Ankur Nagpal, Bailey Pumfleet, Han Wang

Amazon (AMZN) is aggressively challenging Starlink by acquiring Globalstar (GSAT) for $11 billion, securing critical spectrum rights and positioning itself as the primary satellite service provider for Apple devices. Investors should monitor AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) as a potential casualty of this deal, as Amazon’s massive capital entry creates significant competitive pressure for smaller satellite players. Uber (UBER) is transitioning from an asset-light model to a heavy-asset strategy, committing $10 billion to purchase autonomous vehicles from Rivian (RIVN) and Baidu to defend its market share against Waymo. Snap Inc. (SNAP) is a high-conviction play for efficiency-focused investors following a 16% workforce reduction aimed at achieving true net profitability through AI-driven cost-cutting. Avoid the speculative surge in Allbirds (BIRD) as it pivots to New Bird AI, as its $50 million funding goal is widely considered insufficient to compete in the capital-intensive GPU infrastructure market.

Artemis II Makes History, Nutella in Space, The US-China AI Race | Diet TBPN

The successful Artemis II mission signals a major shift toward the "Space Industrial Base," making private contractors like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Axiom Space the primary value captures for lunar infrastructure. Investors should monitor SpaceX IPO developments closely, as upcoming Starship refueling milestones in 2025-2026 will be the critical catalysts for its multi-billion dollar valuation. Apple (AAPL) remains a high-conviction play for hardware durability, as the organic use of iPhones in extreme space environments reinforces its premium market position and professional-grade camera dominance. In the AI sector, focus on companies successfully embedding "Industrial AI" into business processes, as the race between the US and China shifts from raw model power to effective deployment in sectors like mining and logistics. Keep a watch on Ferrero (Nutella) and other consumer brands that benefit from "earned media" in space, as a potential move toward a NASCAR-style sponsorship model could unlock massive advertising revenue for private space missions.

Artemis II Recap, Work vs Leisure, AI Backlash | Krste Asanović, Peter Diamandis, Balachandar Ramamurthy

Investors should prioritize the energy sector, specifically Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and fusion, as power availability has become the primary bottleneck for AI growth. For immediate exposure to the "CPU crunch" in data centers, monitor SiFive (private) as they challenge traditional chipmakers by licensing high-performance RISC-V architecture to hyperscalers. Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) remain high-conviction plays in the longevity space, with the market now shifting toward next-generation GLP-1 drugs that preserve muscle mass. In the private markets, Critical Loop offers a unique opportunity to play the industrial power shortage by providing modular, battery-based grid bypass solutions. Finally, keep a close watch on SpaceX (private) for potential IPO milestones as they aim for uncrewed Starship landings and lunar infrastructure development by 2028.

Chad Janis: How I Sold Grüns to Unilever for $1.2B

Investors should consider Unilever (UL) as a long-term play in the health sector following its $1.2 billion acquisition of Grüns, leveraging a proven track record of scaling wellness brands like Liquid IV into billion-dollar assets. The "Gummy V3" trend is a high-conviction theme; look for companies moving beyond basic vitamins into complex, clinical-grade nutritional blends that replace traditional powders. Meta Platforms (META) remains the essential growth engine for consumer brands, making it a core holding for those betting on the continued dominance of digital customer acquisition. For operational efficiency, prioritize companies integrating AI tools like Claude (Anthropic) to automate back-office tasks, as seen by Grüns achieving $50M in revenue with a skeleton crew. The most successful consumer investments will follow an "Omnichannel" strategy, transitioning from Direct-to-Consumer pilots into mass-market retail giants like Target and Walmart.

SpaceX Financials, Does AI Increase Unemployment or Leisure, Chimp Civil War | Diet TBPN

Prepare for a potential SpaceX IPO as early as June, which offers exposure to a dominant, profitable satellite business that is aggressively pivoting into space-based AI infrastructure. Investors seeking alternatives to SpaceX should monitor emerging competitors Rocket Lab (RKLB) and Firefly Aerospace, which are gaining traction in the high-demand orbital launch market. Tesla (TSLA) remains a high-conviction play on industrial AI as the Tesla Semi finally moves into tangible production, signaling a shift from prototype to revenue-generating asset. For luxury exposure, Ferrari (RACE) offers a unique "scarcity moat" similar to Hermès, though investors must watch for overproduction risks that could devalue the brand's exclusivity. To capitalize on the broader AI hardware boom, focus on high-barrier infrastructure plays like ASML, which provides the essential lithography equipment required for next-generation chip manufacturing.

SpaceX Financials, Chimpanzee Civil War, Ferrari's Brand Legend | Josh Reeves, Prof. Alex Young, Jason Kim, Chad Janis, Jordan Bramble, Andy Dunn

Prepare for the SpaceX IPO in June 2026, which offers a high-conviction play on a "Space + AI" conglomerate fueled by profitable Starlink margins and ambitious orbital data centers. Maintain a BUY rating on Ferrari (RACE), but prioritize internal combustion engine (ICE) and "Special" limited edition models over hybrids to capture superior residual value. Monitor Nvidia (NVDA) and its partner CoreWeave as primary proxies for the AI infrastructure "arms race," evidenced by their massive $22.4 billion contract expansion with OpenAI. Consider long-term exposure to the "Lunar Economy" through Firefly Aerospace or its partner Northrop Grumman (NOC) as moon missions transition from government research to commercial data and imaging services. Look for investment opportunities in the Nuclear Energy sector, specifically companies developing "micro-reactors" to power the surging energy demands of AI data centers and defense.

Andy Jassy’s Shareholder Letter, Meek Mill Joins the AI Race| Diet TBPN

Amazon (AMZN) is a high-conviction play as it transitions into the primary utility for the AI era, with plans to double its total power capacity by 2027 to meet massive compute demand. Investors should note the rapid growth of AWS AI revenue and the high demand for proprietary chips like Tranium and Graviton, which improve profit margins by reducing reliance on third-party hardware. Amazon's partnership with Eli Lilly to deliver GLP-1 medications positions the company to dominate the high-margin medical logistics market. As Meta (META) restricts legal advertising on its platform to stifle litigation, expect a shift in ad spend toward Alphabet (GOOGL) and YouTube, making them secondary beneficiaries of legal marketing budgets. In the broader market, focus on Energy and Data Center Infrastructure providers, as power capacity has replaced chip supply as the primary bottleneck for AI expansion.

Binance’s CZ: We’ll Never Know Satoshi, and That’s Good

Investors should prioritize Bitcoin (BTC) as a core long-term holding, valuing its unique lack of "founder risk" compared to other major blockchain projects. Increased regulatory clarity from the Genius Act and upcoming stablecoin legislation are expected to drive a massive return of institutional liquidity and talent to U.S. markets. You should look for immediate opportunities in Prediction Markets, a sector currently reaching critical mass and receiving significant backing from major funds like EZ Labs. Focus on infrastructure projects enabling AI-to-AI payments, as automated agents will increasingly use crypto to bypass traditional banking KYC hurdles. While NFTs and DAOs are in a maturation phase, keep a close watch for "second wind" projects that pivot toward the practical tokenization of real-world assets.