TBPN
Podcast

TBPN

by John Coogan & Jordi Hays

338 episodes

Technology's daily show (formerly the Technology Brothers Podcast). Streaming live on X and YouTube from 11 - 2 PM PST Monday - Friday. Available on X, Apple, Spotify, and YouTube.
Ask about TBPNAnswers are grounded in this source's posts from the last 30 days.

Recent Posts

338 posts
SpaceX IPO, The Erdős Problem, Spotify CEO Joins | Alex Tabarrok, Bill Clerico, Alex Norström, Jordan Schneider, Christina Lee Storm, Erik Bernhardsson

Investors should prepare for the SpaceX IPO rumored for June 12, 2026, which positions the company as a massive AI infrastructure and "Space Data Center" play with a target valuation up to $1.9 trillion. NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a high-conviction core holding following a massive $80 billion share buyback announcement, signaling management's belief in continued dominance as GPU supply remains tight for the next two years. Spotify (SPOT) is a strong growth pick as it expands margins through a landmark AI remix deal with Universal Music Group and new high-margin "Reserve Ticket" features for fans. In the public markets, Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and IBM are set to benefit from a $2 billion federal grant program for Quantum Computing, providing significant government-backed validation. For those tracking the AI sector, Anthropic's recent pivot to profitability confirms the long-term viability of the LLM business model, suggesting high enterprise "stickiness" and value.

Google I/O: Day 1 Reactions, Goldman to Lead SpaceX IPO | Diet TBPN

Consider buying the recent dip in Warby Parker (WRBY) following its partnership with Google, as analysts view the company as a prime acquisition target for tech giants seeking eyewear distribution. Investors should monitor SpaceX closely as a potential IPO or major liquidity event looms for May 20th, signaling a historic milestone for the space and satellite internet sectors. NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a high-conviction play on AI infrastructure, with leadership shifting focus toward "Agentic AI" to sustain its massive revenue growth. While Alphabet (GOOGL) faces criticism for product complexity, its proprietary data from YouTube and Street View provides a unique "moat" for long-term AI development. Avoid speculative "pivots" like Allbirds (BIRD), which has transitioned from footwear to high-risk AI infrastructure, and instead focus on the "Face Computer" race between Meta, Google, and Apple.

Google I/O Reactions, Large IPOs Incoming, Figma's AI Assistant | Dylan Field, Brian Chesky, Feross Aboukhadijeh, Tae Kim, Immad Akhund, Marcus Milione

NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a high-conviction play as it trades at a relatively low 19x forward earnings despite 85% revenue growth, with potential stock buybacks serving as a near-term catalyst. Investors should look toward the Memory & Semiconductor Sector, specifically SK Hynix, to capture the massive valuation gap in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) which currently trades at single-digit P/E multiples. Google (GOOGL) offers a strategic entry point through its deep Workspace integration and upcoming smart glasses launch this fall, positioning it as a leader in "Agentic" productivity. The recent 14% dip in Warby Parker (WRBY) presents a potential buying opportunity, as its partnership with Google makes it a prime acquisition target for "face real estate" in the AI hardware race. Monitor the imminent SpaceX IPO prospectus, as a rumored $1.5T - $1.75T valuation could shift significant liquidity away from existing mega-cap tech stocks.

Google I/O, Fertility Decline, Spotify Logo Drama | Diet TBPN

Investors should maintain a bullish outlook on Alphabet (GOOGL) as it successfully pivots to a "full-stack AI" narrative, with Google Cloud currently outperforming both AWS and Azure in growth. Look to accumulate shares ahead of next month’s release of Gemini 1.5 Pro, as the market continues to reprice the stock as a primary winner in the AI race. The emergence of "Agentic Commerce" and the Gemini Flash model provide a clear path for Alphabet to monetize AI beyond traditional search advertising. Beyond software, keep a multi-year watch on AI Wearables and smart glasses, which are expected to eventually replace smartphones as the primary interface for ambient AI. Finally, the shift in media consumption favors long-form digital audio, suggesting continued strength for platforms like Spotify (SPOT) that dominate the podcasting and advertising ecosystem.

Google I/O Reactions, Birth Rate Debates, Spotify's New Icon | Jim Belosic, Aidan Dewar, Fai Nur, Tanay Tandon, Ajeya Cotra, Philip Inghelbrecht

Investors should maintain exposure to Google (GOOGL) as it leverages its Gemini AI models to drive a 19% surge in search revenue and outpace competitors in cloud growth. The "re-industrialization of America" theme offers a strong private equity or secondary market opportunity in SendCutSend, which is scaling domestic manufacturing through software automation. In the healthcare sector, look for opportunities in Nourish and Commure, which are capitalizing on the GLP-1 weight-loss trend and AI-driven administrative automation to improve provider margins. As AI agents become more autonomous, a new "embedded auditing" sector is emerging, making third-party verification tools a mandatory requirement for future enterprise deployments. Finally, the shift of $90 billion in TV ad spend toward streaming platforms like YouTube and Netflix provides a tactical opening for performance-oriented brands to access high-quality inventory with digital-level precision.

Musk Loses OpenAI Case, Leopold’s 13F, Data Center Backlash | Diet TBPN

The dismissal of the Elon Musk lawsuit removes a major legal overhang for OpenAI, clearing the path for future funding rounds and corporate restructuring. Investors should consider a "surgical" approach to semiconductors by maintaining long positions in NVIDIA (NVDA) while hedging against broader sector volatility via VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) puts. The AI trade is shifting toward power infrastructure, with Solar assets favored for their ability to hit the grid faster than Nuclear options. Look for opportunities in the conversion of agricultural land and water rights into data center infrastructure, though be mindful of local "NIMBY" regulatory risks. Monitor the Stratos Project in Utah as a bellwether for massive $100 billion scale data center developments and their associated utility demands.

Leopold's 13F, Data Center Fixes, Shein Buys Everlane | Mike Isaac, Rowan Trollope, Dean Leitersdorf, Joanna Stern

The dismissal of the Elon Musk lawsuit significantly de-risks OpenAI, stabilizing investor confidence ahead of a potential IPO or future funding rounds. High-conviction investors are currently long NVIDIA (NVDA) while hedging against the broader semiconductor sector via puts on the SMH ETF, betting on specific infrastructure winners over commodity chipmakers. T1 Energy offers a timely play on the AI power crunch, as domestic solar is the fastest-scaling solution to meet immediate data center energy demands. For long-term infrastructure exposure, look toward "Data Ranches" and companies like Bloom Energy that provide independent power to bypass grid constraints. In the consumer sector, avoid struggling direct-to-consumer brands like Everlane and instead focus on "utility" value plays or dairy processing infrastructure to capitalize on the 50% surge in whey protein prices.

SpaceX IPO Date, ChatGPT x Personal Finance, Sanders & AOC vs. Data Centers | Diet TBPN

Investors should prepare for a potential SpaceX IPO on the NASDAQ as early as June 11th, which would likely trigger automatic inclusion in the QQQ and set a new valuation floor for the space sector. While NVIDIA (NVDA) continues to dominate through strategic venture investments that fuel its own GPU demand, investors should monitor the long-term sustainability of these subsidized revenue streams. The massive energy requirements of AI data centers make companies specializing in grid modernization, clean energy, and liquid cooling high-conviction plays to hedge against regulatory hurdles and infrastructure strain. Traditional budgeting apps face disruption from OpenAI, as new Plaid integrations allow users to perform automated financial audits and predictive budgeting directly within ChatGPT. Finally, long-term investors should consider a bearish outlook on legacy alcohol stocks like Diageo or Anheuser-Busch in favor of non-alcoholic beverage or cannabis alternatives due to a significant secular decline in consumption.

$9M Buffett Dinner, AI Monets, Patek Scarcity, Late-Career Founder, WSJ Mansion Section, 𝕏 Timeline Reactions | Rahul Sonwalkar

Investors should consider a "buy the dip" opportunity in Microsoft (MSFT), as Bill Ackman targets the stock following a 15% drop, citing an undervalued 27% stake in OpenAI and resilient subscription revenue. Monitor SpaceX closely for a potential NASDAQ IPO as early as June 2026, which would likely trigger massive institutional buying through QQQ index inclusion. While NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a dominant AI leader, investors should watch for risks in its "circular" revenue model where it finances the very startups purchasing its GPUs. For long-term stability in the semiconductor sector, ASML remains a high-conviction play due to its unique strategic co-investment model with major chipmakers. Within the AI space, shift focus toward companies that can prove a clear return on investment (ROI) on "token spend" rather than those simply replacing human labor with high compute costs.

Cerebras IPO, Warsh Confirmed Fed Chair, Musk-OpenAI Trial Nears End | Diet TBPN

Monitor Cerebras Systems as it enters the public market, as its "wafer-scale" chips are commanding a massive premium for high-speed AI inference over traditional hardware. While NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the gold standard for AI training, investors should diversify into specialized hardware and "fast AI" plays to capture the shift toward the "Orchestration Age." In the robotics sector, watch for commercial viability in warehouse automation as companies like Figure demonstrate human-level performance with their Helix 2 humanoid robots. Prepare for increased interest rate volatility and potential stagflation as Kevin Warsh takes over a polarized Federal Reserve, favoring defensive positions over debt-heavy growth stocks. Finally, track the OpenAI vs. Elon Musk trial closely, as a Musk victory could force a massive restructuring of the company and jeopardize its lucrative partnership with Microsoft (MSFT).

Cerebras IPO, WarshTime, General Catalyst Ad Reactions | Andrew Feldman, Amy Reinhard, Ben Hylak, Doug O'Laughlin, Eric Vishria, Steve Vassallo

Investors should monitor Cerebras Systems (CERE) as a high-conviction play on AI inference speed, particularly as the market shifts from model training to low-latency interactivity. While NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the dominant infrastructure leader, the persistent shortage of TSMC clean-room capacity creates a sustained "overflow" opportunity for secondary chipmakers like AMD and Intel (INTC). Netflix (NFLX) is a strong buy-and-hold candidate as it transitions to a high-margin performance marketing powerhouse by launching its proprietary ad tech stack across 15 new countries. Be cautious with legacy web builders like Wix (WIX), which face significant disruption from "vibe coding" tools like Cursor and Figma that allow non-technical users to generate front-ends instantly. For long-term infrastructure exposure, prioritize companies positioned near massive power sources or those providing observability tools for AI agents, as power and reliability have replaced location as the primary data center bottlenecks.

Trump-Xi Summit, Space Data Center Debate, Inflation Up | Diet TBPN

Investors should prepare for the SpaceX IPO this summer, which is expected to be the largest of all time and will likely catalyze a new investment theme around "Orbital Data Centers." NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the primary high-conviction play for U.S.-China tech relations, though investors must monitor potential "Rare Earth" supply chain retaliations from China. To hedge against rising inflation and "stagflation" risks, consider adding Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) as the real economy shows signs of slowing. Long-term growth seekers should look toward Google (GOOGL) and Planet Labs (PL) as they partner on satellite infrastructure to solve terrestrial data center constraints. Finally, the Defense sector and non-Chinese Rare Earth mining companies are high-priority targets as the U.S. moves toward a projected $1.5 trillion defense budget to ensure technological sovereignty.

Trump-Xi Summit, Inflation Fears, Space Data Centers | Max Levchin, Delian Asparouhov, Richard Socher, Brandon Hill, Nate Tepper, Joubin Mirzadegan, Roman Chernin

Monitor NVIDIA (NVDA) closely for any trade breakthroughs following the high-stakes US-China summit, as a "truce" on export restrictions would serve as a major bullish catalyst. Investors should prepare for the SpaceX IPO in Summer 2026 by tracking the Starship V3 orbital test on May 19th and the development of their "StarCloud" orbital data centers. Affirm (AFRM) is a high-conviction growth play as it targets $100 billion in volume and leverages AI to maintain profitability regardless of Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. For high-growth AI infrastructure exposure, Nebius (NBIS) offers a specialized alternative to Big Tech clouds with its 841% year-over-year revenue growth and focus on GPU efficiency. Consider United Therapeutics (UTHR) as a unique healthcare play following its landmark deal with Varda Space to manufacture pharmaceuticals in microgravity.

Altman’s Testimony, AI SPV Drama, Ebay Rejects $GME Bid | Diet TBPN

Investors seeking exposure to OpenAI should prioritize Microsoft (MSFT) as the primary public proxy, as the tech giant remains the essential gatekeeper for the massive computing power required for frontier AI. Avoid purchasing private shares of Anthropic through secondary markets or social media brokers, as the company is actively voiding unauthorized transfers and creating significant legal risks for buyers. BuzzFeed (BZFD) presents a high-conviction contrarian play following Byron Allen’s $120 million investment for a majority stake at a 3X valuation premium. The failed $55 billion bid for eBay (EBAY) by GameStop (GME) signals aggressive but low-credibility capital allocation, suggesting caution for GME shareholders. To capitalize on the next wave of AI, focus on hardware and edge computing firms developing Neural Processing Units (NPUs) capable of supporting real-time, "full duplex" audio translation and wearables.

Condé Nast CEO Explains Why Human Journalism Wins in the AI Era

Investors should prioritize media companies with high-authority "power law" brands like Vogue or The New Yorker that maintain direct subscriber relationships, as these are resilient against Alphabet (GOOGL) search algorithm changes. Avoid "low-moat" digital media firms like BuzzFeed (BZFD) that rely on search and social media arbitrage, as organic traffic from these platforms is expected to trend toward zero. Look for growth in the "human premium" sector, where high-end journalism and human-curated content are becoming luxury hedges against the flood of AI-generated "slop." Spotify (SPOT) and the broader music industry remain attractive as they pivot toward high-margin live events and physical "authenticity" trends like vinyl, which has grown for 18 consecutive years. Focus on a "barbell" strategy: invest in massive, authoritative legacy brands or hyper-niche creators, while avoiding mid-sized companies caught in the "danger zone" of being too broad to survive.

Trial Update, AI SPVs, BuzzFeed Sold | Doomberg, Sahir Jaggi, Sam Blond, Kevin Hartz, Alex Shan, Glen Wise, Roger Lynch

Investors should look toward Bloom Energy (BE) as a primary play on the "off-grid" data center trend, utilizing fuel cells to bypass utility bottlenecks. The Natural Gas sector remains a high-conviction theme, as record-low spot prices in regions like the Permian Basin provide a massive cost advantage for U.S.-based AI training facilities. In the private markets, exercise extreme caution with Anthropic secondary shares, as the company is actively voiding unauthorized stock transfers and legal "workarounds." High-authority media brands like The New Yorker and Vogue are proving resilient against "AI slop," making them safer bets for subscription growth compared to struggling digital-native outlets like BuzzFeed. Monitor the OpenAI legal proceedings closely, as any ruling against Sam Altman could destabilize the company’s for-profit structure and its multi-billion dollar partnership with Microsoft (MSFT).

Swatch & AP Collab, Cerebras Boosts IPO Price, Trump to Visit China | Diet TBPN

Investors should prepare for the Cerebras Systems (CBRS) IPO in mid-May 2026, which is currently 20x oversubscribed with a raised price target of $150–$160 per share. While the target valuation is $26 billion, prediction markets suggest the stock could surge past $50 billion on day one due to high demand for AI inference hardware. A high-probability short-term arbitrage opportunity exists in the upcoming Audemars Piguet x Swatch "Royal Pop" watch; retailing at roughly $400, it is expected to flip for 5x to 12x its value on the secondary market. BYD (BYDDY) is a strong play in the luxury EV transition as it pivots to high-margin premium models like the Denza Z to compete with European brands. Finally, monitor the U.S.-China summit for any easing of GPU export restrictions, as positive news could serve as a major catalyst for the broader semiconductor and AI supply chain sectors.

Swatch AP Collab, Cerebras IPO, Trump Visits China | Ferdinand Dabitz, Spencer Rascoff, Eric Olson, Matt Lohstroh, Jay Azhang, Amir Sadeghian, Alexander Taubman, Quaid Walker

The upcoming Audemars Piguet x Swatch "Royal Pop" collaboration offers a high-conviction flip opportunity, with resale prices projected at 5x to 12x the $400 retail price; target secondary cities like Troy, MI, or Honolulu for better stock availability. Cerebras Systems (CRBRS) is a priority IPO play as it shifts the market focus from training to AI inference, with a projected day-one market cap exceeding $50 billion. For long-term growth, Match Group (MTCH) is a turnaround candidate leveraging AI to cut development times by 50% and dominate high-margin niche dating markets. Investors should look toward "picks and shovels" AI infrastructure like Giga Energy, which capitalizes on the massive shortage of powered data center shells and electrical hardware. Finally, consider the "Permanent Capital" strategy of acquiring low-margin service firms like Amex Global Business Travel to aggressively expand margins through proprietary AI productivity tools.

Apple-Intel Chip Deal, U.S Adds 115K Jobs, DeepSeek Eyes $50B Valuation | Diet TBPN

Intel (INTC) is a high-conviction turnaround play as it secures a 10% U.S. government stake and multi-billion dollar partnerships with Apple and NVIDIA to build domestic chip infrastructure. Investors should monitor the formalization of the Apple "dual-sourcing" deal, which would break the TSMC monopoly and provide a massive long-term revenue floor for Intel. Within the broader tech sector, look for a recovery in software-as-a-service (SaaS) through companies like Datadog and Atlassian, which are showing fresh revenue acceleration. In the consumer sector, prioritize "experience" stocks like Six Flags (FUN) over big-ticket appliance makers like Whirlpool (WHR), as families are currently favoring travel and entertainment over home renovations. Maintain a "barbell" portfolio strategy by balancing high-growth AI Big Ten stocks with physical, non-digital assets to hedge against historic market concentration.

Airbnb CEO on Why AI Will Create a New Era of Consumer Products

Investors should consider Airbnb (ABNB) as it shifts toward a high-margin "Amazon for services" model, fueled by an 18% revenue acceleration and massive internal AI efficiencies. The company is aggressively capturing market share from traditional Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) by positioning itself as a lower-commission platform for boutique and independent hotels. Look for ABNB to outperform peers as it replaces traditional search-based booking with autonomous AI agents and immersive visual interfaces. Beyond travel, the broader investment opportunity lies in Consumer AI startups that prioritize rich user interfaces over simple text chatbots, a sector currently less crowded than enterprise AI. Monitor the decline of traditional Google search dominance in travel discovery as high-intent traffic shifts toward these specialized AI-native platforms.