The VC Coin Cycle and Why He Holds No Bitcoin - Rekt Mando
The VC Coin Cycle and Why He Holds No Bitcoin - Rekt Mando
20 hours ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Zcash (ZEC) is the clearest high-upside crypto idea discussed, supported by privacy demand and recent relative strength; treat the potential 10x as highly speculative, with no timeframe or endorsed $20,000 target.
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) was the guest’s largest crypto holding; its case rests on active product use, but the $200 and $1,000 figures cited were other traders’ targets, not forecasts.
  • For a near-term pullback, the guest was short Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) over the next few weeks, without specific price targets.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) was his largest stock position, with a speculative 4–5x estimate over two years; weigh continued GLP-1 growth against safety and legal risks.
  • Micron (MU) could gain an estimated 20%–30% over the next few months, though memory-price uncertainty remains a key risk.
Detailed Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The guest said he holds no Bitcoin and prefers altcoins tied to utility, privacy, or institutional interest for this phase of the market.
  • He expects Bitcoin could retest $80,000–$82,000 in the near term and views $88,000 as a key level. He also said a move down from roughly $87,000–$88,000 could shake out newer, speculative buyers.
  • Despite that short-term caution, he described the market as being at the start of a longer-term bullish trend that could last one to two years. He did not expect Bitcoin to reach $200,000 in this cycle.
  • His view is that crypto’s current strength may be driven more by belief in useful products and themes such as privacy than by rising global liquidity alone.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents a contrast between near-term downside risk and a longer-term bullish market view. Consider those time horizons separately rather than treating one as a contradiction of the other.
  • The guest’s preference for altcoins over Bitcoin is his trading stance, not a claim that Bitcoin has no long-term value.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • Zcash was described as one of the strongest trades and as a leading privacy-focused asset. The guest said it had dipped to around $1,400, then bounced and held near $1,500 while other parts of the market weakened.
  • He said Zcash was one of the coins he could imagine going 10x, and identified it as his preferred coin for a potentially large-multiple trade. He also noted that another trader had discussed a $20,000 target; that was not presented as his own specific target.
  • The guest believes privacy is a durable social trend and said Zcash’s ability to attract unusually ambitious price expectations was part of its appeal.
  • He held Zcash and said he slept well owning it, while cautioning that investors should distinguish between a coin’s narrative and confidence in how it trades.

Takeaways

  • The bullish case discussed rests on privacy demand, market momentum, and the possibility of institutional interest. The 10x idea is speculative, and no timeline was given.
  • Treat the $20,000 figure as another trader’s target, not a forecast endorsed by the guest.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • HYPE was the guest’s largest position and, in his view, his best trade of the broader market run.
  • He cited daily use of Hyperliquid as evidence that some crypto products are becoming more tangible and useful.
  • He said HYPE looked strong and referred to large price expectations voiced by other traders, including $200 and $1,000 over a much longer horizon. These were not the guest’s own price targets.

Takeaways

  • The discussion favors projects with products people use and sustained buyer interest, rather than relying only on a broad crypto-market rally.
  • Large targets mentioned by other traders are not guarantees; the guest’s position could change, and he described himself as a short-term trader.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • The guest held NEAR and ranked it among his largest crypto positions, behind HYPE and roughly alongside Zcash.
  • He said NEAR might outperform Zcash on the next move and believed it could go higher if institutional buyers continued returning to crypto.
  • He pointed to NEAR’s established history, fully vested token supply, and themes including AI, agents, and privacy as factors that could appeal to institutions.
  • He also acknowledged that NEAR had frustrated him in prior trades and that he had sold half of his position at $3.50 because he did not fully trust the trade.

Takeaways

  • The bullish thesis is a combination of institutional attention and current market themes, not a strong revenue case: the guest noted NEAR’s fees were only in the tens or low hundreds of thousands of dollars per day.
  • The guest’s past difficulty holding NEAR highlights the difference between a compelling narrative and confidence in a trade.

Venice (VVV)

  • VVV was named among the institutional- or venture-favored tokens that had performed well. The guest also said he used Venice and viewed its revenue as meaningful.
  • He thought institutional momentum could support further gains, though he did not provide a price target.
  • Elsewhere, he said a trader’s comments about private AI inference helped bring VVV to his attention.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s case for VVV is based on product use, revenue, and investor attention. The transcript does not establish how sustainable its revenues are.

Lighter

  • Lighter was included among the coins that the guest saw as attracting institutional demand.
  • He did not own it, citing regret from earlier trading and upcoming token unlocks as reasons it was less attractive to him than other tokens.

Takeaways

  • The guest’s stated concern is that unlocks could create selling pressure. He preferred other tokens, but did not give a specific target or timing for Lighter.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

  • The guest had previously been bullish on Pump, which he said helped lead the earlier part of the rally, but he felt it did not become the “coin of the cycle.”
  • He said Pump appeared to lose momentum as attention shifted to other tokens, including Zcash. He also contrasted its pullbacks—sometimes 30%–40%—with smaller declines in some institutional-favored tokens.
  • The guest said Pump could look undervalued if its revenue figures were legitimate, while also questioning how believable and sustainable token-related revenues can be.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to risks from rapid narrative rotation, sharp drawdowns, and uncertainty about revenue quality.
  • Any valuation argument based on Pump’s reported revenue depends on whether that revenue is both accurate and durable.

Stonk and on-chain tokens

  • The guest liked Stonk and called it his favorite among the tokens discussed in its group, but raised questions about whether token-linked dividend models can work across many assets.
  • He said it was harder to support large price expectations for Stonk when bullish claims he had heard were more modest, such as $500.
  • The speakers also discussed how on-chain assets can be difficult to trade in size: selling large positions may require substantial discounts and can move the market.
  • They warned that market makers holding a few percent of a token may trade both the token and its perpetual futures in ways that affect price. They specifically cautioned against assuming a market maker’s involvement automatically means a future exchange listing.

Takeaways

  • For smaller, less-liquid tokens, assess exit liquidity and position size, not just potential upside.
  • Treat revenue, dividend, and market-maker narratives cautiously; the speakers questioned how sustainable some revenues are and described material trading and liquidity risks.

Monero (XMR)

  • The guest owned Monero but described it as frustrating and said he did not fully trust it as a position.
  • He said Monero’s privacy features may appeal to people seeking privacy, but also described early mining as centralized and cited a miner reorganization attack from two years earlier.
  • He believed a small group may have substantial influence over the market and described sharp price spikes followed by fast reversals that can wipe out leveraged traders.

Takeaways

  • The discussion identifies perceived concentration, abrupt price swings, and leverage-related losses as reasons for caution.
  • The guest distinguished Monero’s possible appeal as a privacy technology from his confidence in holding or trading the token.

Solana (SOL)

  • The guest said he was short Solana at the time of the conversation, expecting a near-term market pullback.
  • He also recalled holding SOL through a prior rally, during which it rose from about $30 to $140; he said that passive position performed well.
  • He questioned whether SOL’s investment case was as compelling as projects with clearer direct product use or revenue.

Takeaways

  • The transcript includes both a positive past holding experience and a short-term bearish trade. The guest’s current view was focused on the next few weeks, not a long-term price target.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The guest said he was short ETH at the time, as part of his near-term expectation for a market pullback.
  • He questioned its relative appeal this cycle, arguing that some alternatives had clearer revenue or more direct product use. He also said he preferred assets making new highs or representing a newer market theme.

Takeaways

  • The guest’s view was comparatively cautious on ETH, but he gave no specific price target. His comments were based on relative opportunity and short-term trading, not a detailed valuation analysis.

CryptoPunks

  • The speakers discussed renewed interest in CryptoPunks and a possible shift in sentiment, but the guest said he would rather seek assets with the potential for larger moves.
  • He contrasted a commonly discussed move from $30,000 to $50,000 with the more ambitious upside expectations he saw in some crypto tokens.
  • He also noted that Punks are expensive and illiquid, making them harder to buy and sell.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests that a potentially smaller gain may not compensate for the liquidity and capital-allocation trade-offs in this market.
  • No specific recommendation or target was given for CryptoPunks.

ZCAT

  • ZCAT was discussed as a Stonk-related token with a potentially compelling story, but the guest said it was trading around $90 million–$100 million in market value and described its performance as middling.
  • He viewed it as an example of a token whose dividend-linked narrative might be more convincing than similar ideas, but questioned whether such models could scale across many assets.

Takeaways

  • Consider the uncertainty around how the token’s model works and whether it can be repeated, rather than relying on the narrative alone.
  • The transcript did not provide a price target for ZCAT.

Gold

  • The guest said he had been bullish on gold earlier, but observed that it had stayed around a similar level after a brief run-up.
  • He characterized gold as a longer-term trade.

Takeaways

  • The discussion offered no near-term catalyst or price target for gold; its role in the conversation was as a longer-horizon investment idea.

Eli Lilly (LLY)

  • Eli Lilly was the guest’s largest stock position at the time. He said he had recently bought back in and viewed the company as his strongest AI-related stock idea, citing the intersection of AI and pharmaceuticals as well as GLP-1 drugs.
  • He said Lilly could become one of the world’s most valuable companies if it executes well, and estimated it could rise 4–5x over two years.
  • He described demand for retatrutide and other GLP-1 treatments as a powerful opportunity, based partly on enthusiasm among people he knew.
  • The guest also acknowledged a possible risk from reports or litigation around Ozempic and potential vision problems, saying future developments could weaken the broader GLP-1 story.

Takeaways

  • The bullish case discussed depends on continued GLP-1 adoption and successful execution. The 4–5x estimate is the guest’s opinion, not a guaranteed outcome.
  • The transcript specifically raises potential safety and legal concerns around the drug category as a risk to the thesis.

CoreWeave (CRWV)

  • The guest said he was short CoreWeave and viewed it as vulnerable if the data-center buildout encountered a setback.
  • He described the company as highly exposed to AI data-center construction, with substantial debt, estimated cash burn near $20 billion a year, and financing costs of roughly 10%–14%.
  • He said Nvidia’s role as a major partner could provide support, but still viewed CoreWeave’s capital structure as precarious.

Takeaways

  • The bearish case discussed centers on debt, cash burn, and dependence on continued data-center expansion.
  • The guest’s view was a trading opinion; he did not give a price target or timeline for the short.

Nebius (NBIS)

  • Nebius was described as a successful trade from the previous conversation. The transcript also places it within the broader AI data-center and “neocloud” discussion.
  • The guest expressed caution about the sustainability of the wider data-center buildout, though he did not make a specific current recommendation on Nebius.

Takeaways

  • The transcript offers a positive reference to a past trade, alongside broader caution about data-center investment. It does not provide a current price target for Nebius.

Micron (MU)

  • The guest said Micron looked likely to move toward a recent high, but did not expect it to rise 5x.
  • He estimated a possible 20%–30% move over the next few months, while noting ongoing debate about whether memory prices would fall or remain strong.

Takeaways

  • The discussion sees potential near-term upside but flags uncertainty about memory pricing as a risk.
  • The 20%–30% estimate was the guest’s forecast, not a guaranteed return.

Robinhood (HOOD)

  • Robinhood was the guest’s second-largest stock position. He liked its exposure to the push to tokenize assets and believed it could have a strong third quarter.
  • He said the stock traded at roughly 40–50 times forward earnings, so he did not consider it cheap.
  • He also noted signs that activity on its chain might be slowing, while describing the company’s direction on tokenization as promising.

Takeaways

  • The bullish case rests on tokenization and possible institutional participation; the valuation and uncertainty about growth are important counterpoints.
  • The guest did not provide a stock-price target.

Meta (META) and the AI trade

  • The speakers discussed renewed strength in major technology stocks following Meta-related developments, including excitement about AI tools and consumer-facing applications.
  • The guest thought AI applications in health care and pharmaceuticals were a more attractive area than the data-center buildout, which he viewed as potentially precarious.
  • He also thought a rebound in the “Magnificent Seven” could contribute to a short-term wobble in crypto.

Takeaways

  • The transcript distinguishes between AI applications and the capital-intensive data-center expansion: the guest favored the former and was more cautious on the latter.
  • The discussion does not give a specific Meta price target.

Nvidia (NVDA)

  • Nvidia was mentioned as a major partner of CoreWeave and as a company that needs CoreWeave to succeed.
  • The guest suggested Nvidia’s relationship could act as a form of support for CoreWeave, while maintaining concerns about CoreWeave’s debt and business risks.

Takeaways

  • Nvidia’s role was discussed mainly in relation to its partner, CoreWeave; the transcript did not provide an independent investment view or price target for Nvidia.

Expedia (EXPE) and DraftKings (DKNG)

  • One trader discussed shorting Expedia in connection with a view that AI could affect travel bookings, but the trade did not work out as hoped amid renewed enthusiasm for Meta.
  • DraftKings came up in connection with a trader’s interest in sports betting and the broader view that gambling may become more prominent. No specific DraftKings trade thesis or target was provided.

Takeaways

  • The Expedia example illustrates the risk that a thematic trade can be overwhelmed by a competing market narrative.
  • The DraftKings discussion expressed a broad positive view on gambling, not a detailed company-specific recommendation.

Crypto market themes: institutional demand, privacy, and tokenization

  • The guest argued that tokens favored by venture investors and institutions had been outperforming some retail-led or meme-oriented trades. Examples mentioned included HYPE, VVV, NEAR, and Zcash.
  • He favored a basket approach to these institutional-favored tokens, while emphasizing the importance of identifying projects with sustained demand.
  • He also highlighted privacy, AI agents, product use, and tokenization as themes that could attract attention.
  • Separately, he said on-chain tokens can be difficult to exit in size and warned that reported revenues may not be sustainable.

Takeaways

  • The discussion supports researching who may buy an asset, what product is being used, and whether demand appears durable—not just following a narrative.
  • It also emphasizes risks specific to crypto: rapid rotation, potentially unreliable revenue figures, thin liquidity, and sharp pullbacks.

Other crypto assets mentioned

  • AERO (Aerodrome) and Derive were mentioned as additional tokens some venture investors may favor; the guest had researched Derive but had not bought it.
  • Fartcoin and GOAT were cited in a discussion about market makers acquiring large token allocations and trading around them.
  • JLP was mentioned as one of the guest’s past attempts to invest more aggressively with gains from SOL.
  • These references did not include specific price targets or current recommendations.

Takeaways

  • Treat these mentions as examples of assets in the speakers’ trading universe, not endorsements.
  • The speakers’ broader warnings about market-maker activity and difficulty exiting large positions may be relevant to less-liquid tokens.
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🔴LIVE ON TWITCH RIGHT NOW: https://twitch.tv/threadguy TIMESTAMPS: 1:45 - the VC coins are winning 12:39 - bull cycle but not a monster 17:46 - Zcash is the only 10x coin 19:30 - holding $1.5M of Solana 23:13 - no Bitcoin this cycle 27:54 - Monero is manipulated 30:47 - you need delusional targets 33:43 - the LLY to $5 trillion bullcase 44:51 - how Wintermute plays perps ‼️➡️ https://counterparty.tv 🔴Follow My Socials: Twitter: https://x.com/notthreadguy Twitch: https://twitch.tv/threadguy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/threadguyy/ This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, trading, legal, or tax advice. We may hold positions in assets discussed. Viewers should do their own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions. Full disclosures: counterparty.tv/disclosures
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