President Xi Mogs, Crypto Predictions, and Yields Pump
President Xi Mogs, Crypto Predictions, and Yields Pump
7 hours ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube47 min 48 sec
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider Microsoft (MSFT) for renewed AI-trade momentum; it was up about 2%, though no price target or catalyst was provided.
  • Micron (MU) and memory/DRAM stocks are attracting trader interest, but the discussion offered no target or company-specific investment case.
  • Treat Bitcoin (BTC) as a long-term store-of-value thesis, not a short-term trade signal; it was around $84,000 and remains sensitive to rates and policy.
  • Zcash (ZEC) and Monero (XMR) offer speculative privacy exposure, but weigh potential regulatory restrictions and exchange delistings against the thesis.
  • For Bitcoin exposure, consider buying BTC directly rather than Strategy (MSTR); the speaker viewed MSTR as less compelling when Bitcoin ETFs are available.
Detailed Analysis

Meta Platforms (META)

  • The speaker called META the “trade of the week,” but described the position as painful: he cited a $780 level and $771 in the morning. He later said the stock was down about 3% on the day.
  • He was frustrated that he had not bought more after first becoming interested, but did not give a price target or firm recommendation.

Takeaways

  • The discussion reflects interest in META alongside substantial short-term volatility. Treat the speaker’s regret about not buying as commentary, not a buy signal; the transcript offers no valuation case or target price.

Micron Technology (MU) and DRAM

  • The speaker heard “a lot of confluence” among traders buying memory and DRAM, including Micron. He described DRAM as looking good despite the market backdrop.
  • He said he had held a Micron long from around $950 but got “scared out” of it; during the stream, he noted the position would have been showing a gain.
  • Semiconductor and related shares were among the stronger areas in the market snapshot.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to trader interest in memory and semiconductor exposure, but provides no company-specific earnings thesis or price target. The speaker’s account also shows the risk of exiting a trade early under pressure.

Microsoft (MSFT) and AI-Related Stocks

  • The speaker said renewed interest in the AI trade was emerging and described hearing “so much confluence” around long positions in AI stocks.
  • He noted Microsoft was up about 2% during the market update and said it was starting to look interesting.
  • Other semiconductor and AI-related names were also strong in the snapshot, but the discussion did not develop individual investment cases for them.

Takeaways

  • AI and semiconductors were presented as areas attracting renewed trader attention. The transcript does not provide a timeline, target, or specific fundamental catalyst, so the theme should not be mistaken for a detailed stock recommendation.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin was trading around $84,000 in the stream’s market snapshot.
  • The speaker connected Bitcoin’s earlier move higher to rising Treasury yields and expectations that the government might buy long-term Treasuries to control yields. He noted the irony that rising yields were again contributing to market anxiety.
  • A cited cycle thesis argued that persistent money printing, debt reduction through inflation, and possible taxation or confiscation could support Bitcoin and other store-of-value assets over the longer term.

Takeaways

  • The discussion frames Bitcoin as a potential store-of-value asset, while also highlighting sensitivity to interest rates and macroeconomic policy. The transcript gives no Bitcoin price target.

Zcash (ZEC) and Monero (XMR)

  • The speaker discussed Zcash and Monero as privacy-coin plays linked to the possibility that privacy could become more valuable amid increased government efforts to collect revenue or monitor financial activity.
  • He said Zcash was around $1,600 and described its performance as strong; he also noted that his leveraged Zcash position had more than doubled in unrealized value. He debated taking some profits but did not state a firm plan.
  • He said Monero had risen roughly 91–92% from its bottom and observed that privacy coins often rise after exchange or crypto hacks.
  • The transcript explicitly identifies a major risk: privacy coins could face U.S. exchange delistings, pressure on shielded transfers, or regulatory action targeting privacy itself. The speaker also noted that reduced exchange access can make these assets harder to buy and limit how easily prices rise.
  • A potential political shift after the 2028 election was discussed as a possible catalyst for renewed privacy-coin scrutiny, not as a certain outcome.

Takeaways

  • The thesis is that demand for financial privacy could support ZEC and XMR, but the same regulatory pressure that could strengthen the perceived use case could also restrict access and trading.
  • The speaker’s comments about taking profits from a large Zcash gain were personal trade management, not a specific recommendation.

Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Other Crypto Market Moves

  • Ethereum was around $2,700 in the market snapshot, while Solana was up about 2%. These were brief price updates rather than developed investment theses.
  • NEAR was among the day’s stronger tokens, rising about 10% in the snapshot. The speaker did not explain the move or offer a target.

Takeaways

  • These mentions provide market context, not a clear investment case. The transcript does not identify catalysts, valuations, or recommendations for ETH, SOL, or NEAR.

XRP (XRP)

  • XRP was up about 3.1% in the market snapshot, and the speaker said its chart against Bitcoin looked good.
  • He said he personally did not like XRP as an asset, but was willing to trade assets that were rising.

Takeaways

  • The comments are chart- and momentum-oriented rather than based on a fundamental thesis. The speaker’s willingness to trade a rising price is not the same as a longer-term endorsement.

Dogecoin (DOGE) and Pudgy Penguins (PENGU)

  • The speaker discussed a possible DOGE thesis: retail users on Robinhood may gravitate toward a familiar, long-listed cryptocurrency. He said he did not hate the idea but was not fully convinced.
  • He also compared PENGU to the same potential retail-adoption theme and said its chart looked interesting.
  • In response to a question about DOGE usage, the speaker dismissed the idea that meaningful use was taking place.

Takeaways

  • The proposed angle is potential retail attention and platform visibility, not utility or demonstrated use. Both tokens were discussed speculatively, with no target or timeline.

Venice (VVV) and AI-Crypto Tokens

  • The speaker said he had missed much of VVV, which he described as having its own success, while also saying he held some VVV. The transcript does not clearly state a current price or target.
  • A cited thesis favored the possibility of a crypto token tied to real AI demand, durable revenue, and a genuine need for the token. The speaker said he was still researching the area and suggested a project such as Venice might fit, but sounded uncertain.
  • He distinguished this idea from simply launching AI-themed tokens on-chain.

Takeaways

  • The proposed screen is for evidence of real demand, necessary token utility, durable revenue, and an entry valuation that has not already run too far. The speaker did not identify a definitive winning token.

Digital-Asset Treasury Companies (DATs), Ethena, and MSTR

  • A cited thesis suggested that digital-asset treasury companies could attract renewed attention, particularly those trading at a large discount to net asset value, with teams still executing, improving fundamentals, and token unlocks nearing an end.
  • The speaker said the thesis could apply to an Ethena-related treasury strategy, citing a neobank product and an increase of more than $1 billion in USD circulation. The transcript refers to “Athena” and does not clearly specify a ticker.
  • He said Stan Druckenmiller had taken a position in “PER,” but the company or ticker was not clearly identified in the transcript.
  • The speaker argued that a Bitcoin treasury company such as Strategy (MSTR) is less compelling to him when investors can buy Bitcoin directly through an ETF.

Takeaways

  • The DAT thesis described in the transcript depends on asset value, discount to NAV, execution, and improving fundamentals; it is not a blanket endorsement of all treasury companies.
  • The speaker’s comparison favors considering direct Bitcoin exposure over MSTR when an ETF is readily available, but he did not provide a formal valuation analysis.

Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokenization

  • The speaker said he continued to like the broader RWA tokenization trend and expected it to experience rapid growth if regulation did not get in the way.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity discussed is the potential growth of tokenized real-world assets, with regulation identified as the key caveat. No specific project, token, or timeline was named.

Social Trading, Meme Coins, and On-Chain Speculation

  • A cited cycle thesis predicted that social trading and crypto “casino” activity would continue to grow, driven by slick apps, social-media reach, and the appeal of seeing other traders make large gains.
  • The speaker agreed that visible profits and viral activity can bring more users into crypto, while also discussing concerns that on-chain trading can be zero-sum and that publicly encouraging others to participate raises ethical questions.
  • He referenced claims of 90–95% losses in some speculative trading activity. He also described a thesis that the usual $300–$400 million circulating-market-cap ceiling for on-chain tokens could eventually break, but presented this as a prediction rather than a certainty.

Takeaways

  • The transcript portrays social trading as a potential user-growth theme but also emphasizes its speculative nature and the possibility of large losses.
  • Treat proposed market-cap ceilings and breakout predictions as uncertain; the discussion does not identify a particular token as a clear beneficiary.

Collectibles and Trading Cards

  • The speaker said he personally believed the collectible market could continue growing over a multiyear period, while acknowledging that the market could feel “frothy.”
  • The discussion cited record sales, including a $1 million Charizard and a $1.4 million one-of-one Wembanyama card. The speaker also discussed cards, collectible video games, and match-worn sports apparel as “culture assets.”
  • He compared some collectibles favorably with contemporary art as personal display items, but also emphasized how difficult it can be to know what art or collectibles to buy.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity described is long-term cultural demand, not a specific card-selection strategy. Record prices and the speaker’s view that the market may be frothy underscore the uncertainty of valuing individual collectibles.

Crypto Exchanges and Security Risks

  • The transcript reported that Bitget suffered a large hack, initially described as about $174 million and later estimated by the speaker at roughly $350 million.
  • The speaker also discussed a separate NFT payment-processor exploit. A cited account said more than 23,000 NFTs worth over $5.7 million were rescued, while approximately 660 ETH was not recovered.
  • Hyperliquid’s founder had previously alleged that Bitget’s trading practices were problematic, including claims that the exchange traded against some retail flow. These were presented as past allegations, not independently verified facts in the transcript.

Takeaways

  • The incidents highlight exchange, custody, and smart-contract risks that can affect crypto exposure beyond token price movements.
  • The transcript supports checking where assets are held and understanding platform and contract risks; it does not provide a specific exchange recommendation.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
🔴LIVE ON TWITCH RIGHT NOW: https://twitch.tv/threadguy TIMESTAMPS: 1:40 - trading cards are the new art market 7:20 - Evan's six calls for the cycle 15:33 - Evan flipped on meme coins 20:27 - why would anyone buy $MSTR? 32:25 - $XPL is a divorce coin 36:44 - 0xquit white hats the NFT exploit 39:01 - Hyperliquid Jeff called the Bitget hack 41:42 - does Trump make it better or worse? ‼️➡️ https://counterparty.tv 🔴Follow My Socials: Twitter: https://x.com/notthreadguy Twitch: https://twitch.tv/threadguy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/threadguyy/ This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, trading, legal, or tax advice. We may hold positions in assets discussed. Viewers should do their own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions. Full disclosures: counterparty.tv/disclosures
About threadguy
threadguy

threadguy

By @notthreadguy

Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.