MARKET OPEN: Revisiting the WORST DAY in Crypto History, The 10/10 ANNIVERSARY, OpenAI SUCKS
MARKET OPEN: Revisiting the WORST DAY in Crypto History, The 10/10 ANNIVERSARY, OpenAI SUCKS
19 hours ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube1 hr 22 min
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Keep near-term expenses, including taxes, out of volatile crypto; the PUMP selloff shows how liquidity shocks can force losses at the worst time.
  • If holding crypto, size positions for severe drawdowns and prioritize liquidity: the discussion reports far larger losses across many altcoins than BTC, while even established assets suffered steep declines.
  • ZEC was the speaker’s clearest preferred spot holding, but no price target or timeframe was given, and it remains exposed to sharp losses.
Detailed Analysis

Crypto market and crash risk

  • The speaker described October 10, 2025 as an exceptionally severe crypto selloff: the total market was said to fall about 20%, with roughly $800 billion erased in one day.
  • He said liquidity disappeared across many tokens: some assets fell 50%–90%, order books had no buyers, and some holders could not sell at reasonable prices.
  • He compared the event with earlier crypto crashes, including Mt. Gox, the 2018 ICO selloff, COVID, the 2021 China/Elon crash, and FTX. He emphasized that the 10/10 event had no clear, confirmed cause; possible explanations mentioned included market makers, an oracle depeg, and the Ethena carry trade.
  • His main risk message was that extreme crashes are an inherent possibility when holding risk assets. He urged investors to keep that possibility in mind and said surviving a full market cycle helps show how large both the upside and downside can be.
  • He also argued that only 10 coins were above their 10/10 levels one year later, underscoring how few tokens recovered in his comparison.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights liquidity, leverage, and position size as key risks—not just whether an asset’s long-term thesis is appealing.
  • The speaker’s own account is a caution against putting money needed for near-term obligations into volatile crypto: he had tax money in Pump.fun, became a forced seller, and regretted the timing.
  • These are lessons from the speaker’s experience, not specific price forecasts or personalized investment advice.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • The speaker said Bitcoin was around $115,000 before the 10/10 crash and cited a decline of 32% from its 10/10 level one year later.
  • In a separate market-open snapshot later in the transcript, he quoted Bitcoin at $82,900.
  • He contrasted Bitcoin’s comparatively smaller move during one later selloff with the sharper losses in some altcoins.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents Bitcoin as having held up better than many altcoins in some selloffs, but it also describes substantial drawdowns and does not establish that Bitcoin is immune to broad crypto-market risk.

Ethereum (ETH)

  • The speaker cited Ethereum as being down 41% from its 10/10 level one year later.
  • In a separate market-open snapshot, he quoted ETH at about $2,500.

Takeaways

  • The discussion shows that even a large, established crypto asset can remain well below prior levels after a severe market shock.

Solana (SOL)

  • The speaker said Solana was down 50% from its 10/10 level one year later.
  • A trader’s previously stated bearish invalidation level was described as a weekly close above $250 for SOL. This was presented as that trader’s technical-analysis condition, not as an endorsed target.

Takeaways

  • The transcript gives no current SOL valuation or investment recommendation. The cited $250 level is a past technical-analysis reference, not a forecast.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • Hyperliquid was described as falling from about $45 to $20 during the crash, with the speaker citing a 47% drawdown.
  • The speaker called it arguably one of crypto’s strongest coins, while also using its sharp fall to illustrate that even a favored asset can suffer a severe liquidity shock.
  • A separate market-open snapshot quoted HYPE at $85.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s favorable view of Hyperliquid did not prevent a major drawdown in his account. His example emphasizes that conviction does not remove the risk of sharp losses or thin liquidity.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

  • The speaker said Pump.fun fell rapidly during the crash, at one point losing 55%–65% as he watched; he later described the full intraday decline as about 79.8%.
  • He had his tax payment money in Pump.fun and sold $150,000 of spot holdings while the price was falling because the tax deadline was close. He described this as a forced sale and said the position ultimately fell further.
  • In a separate comparison, he said Pump.fun had previously fallen 11% from top to bottom in a day, highlighting how extreme the 10/10 move was by comparison.

Takeaways

  • The clearest practical lesson in the transcript is to avoid relying on a volatile token to fund a near-term bill. A forced sale during a rapid decline can lock in losses.
  • The speaker’s account also illustrates the risks of concentrating a large position in a highly volatile token.

Zcash (ZEC)

  • The speaker said Zcash fell about 41% during the 10/10 event, making it one of the better-performing assets in his comparison.
  • Later, he called Zcash his “favorite soldier” and said he still liked it as a spot holding, while acknowledging that crypto markets could remain unsettled.
  • He also said Zcash was down about 15% in a later selloff.

Takeaways

  • Zcash was the speaker’s clearest positive personal preference, but he did not give a price target or a specific time horizon.
  • His discussion also stresses that a favored asset can still experience large losses.

Other named cryptocurrencies

  • The speaker cited the following declines from their 10/10 levels one year later: XRP -50%, BNB -50%, Dogecoin (DOGE) -65%, Cardano (ADA) -69%, Chainlink (LINK) -41%, Litecoin (LTC) -50%, Toncoin (TON) -47%, Polkadot (DOT) -73%, Sei (SEI) -76%, Bonk (BONK) -82%, Official Trump (TRUMP) -75%, Pyth (PYTH) -53%, and dogwifhat (WIF) -70%.
  • He also cited severe intraday declines during the crash for DEXE (-96%), dYdX (DYDX, -88.5%), Celestia (TIA, -78%), Filecoin (FIL, -74%), Berachain (BERA, -70%), Jito (JTO, -70%), Arbitrum (ARB, -68%), Avalanche (AVAX, -62.1%), Raydium (RAY, -61.9%), and Aave (AAVE, -60.9%).
  • He said Cosmos (ATOM)—referred to as “Adam” in the transcript—had been around $4 before the event and briefly reached “zero” on the chart, which he used as an example of there being no visible buyers.
  • Other tokens mentioned in market commentary included NEAR, Jupiter (JUP), Uniswap (UNI), Decentraland (MANA), and Pepe (PEPE). The speaker quoted gains in a separate market-open snapshot but did not provide a longer-term thesis for them.

Takeaways

  • The broad set of examples supports the speaker’s warning that many altcoins can experience much larger losses than major cryptocurrencies, and that some may not recover to prior levels.
  • The transcript offers no specific buy recommendations or price targets for these other tokens.

U.S. equities, indexes, and sectors

  • In a market-open snapshot, the speaker said SPY was up 0.36%, QQQ up 0.6%, and the Dow up 0.1%. He also cited gains for semiconductor stocks (SOX, +3.5%), software (IGV, +1.3%), and photonics (+2.7%).
  • He mentioned neoclouds as up 1.3% and described several technology themes as positive in that session. These were short-term market observations rather than longer-term investment arguments.
  • He compared crypto’s 10/10 decline with historical equity-market events, including Black Monday, the COVID selloff, the global financial crisis, and the dot-com bust. He noted that some equity drawdowns were larger or lasted much longer.

Takeaways

  • The comparisons provide context for the scale of a one-day crypto shock, but the transcript does not establish that crypto and equities have comparable long-term risk or recovery patterns.
  • The index and sector moves cited are a snapshot, not a recommendation to buy those markets or sectors.

Individual stocks

  • The market-open snapshot included Lumentum (+7%), Nokia (+3%), Marvell (+2.5%), Tesla (+2%), Arm (+2%), SK Hynix (+1.5%), Amazon (+1%), Microsoft (+1%), Oracle (+2%), Nvidia (+0.7%), Alphabet/Google (+0.7%), and Intel (+0.5%). The speaker said Oracle had rebounded after a particularly poor prior day.
  • Other names mentioned in the same snapshot included Nebius (+2%), Roblox (+2%), Unity (+2%), Snap, Nike (-1.5%), Eli Lilly (described as having been weak repeatedly), DraftKings, Sweetgreen, Robinhood (+0.5%), and Strategy (MSTR, +0.6%). No detailed company-level theses were offered.
  • DRV was said to be up 14% after a Citrini post. The transcript did not explain the post’s argument or provide a longer-term view of the security.
  • The speaker said he shorted Micron (MU) after “OpenAI news” and made about $2,000. No further details about the news, trade setup, or investment thesis were provided.
  • The episode title refers to OpenAI, but the transcript does not develop an investment thesis about OpenAI itself.

Takeaways

  • Most stock commentary was limited to one-session price movements; it should not be treated as evidence of a durable investment thesis.
  • The Micron short was described as the speaker’s individual trade, not as a general recommendation.

Crypto custody and security

  • The speaker said a Ledger wallet was being drained of about $86 million and that phishing email was the suspected cause. He also noted that there had been no tweets or confirmed explanation at that point in the discussion.

Takeaways

  • The incident underscores the importance of treating unsolicited wallet-related messages as potential phishing attempts and verifying information through trusted channels. The transcript did not confirm the cause of the reported drain.
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Revisiting the WORST DAY in Crypto History, The 10/10 ANNIVERSARY, OpenAI SUCKS ‼️➡️ https://counterparty.tv 🔴Follow My Socials: Twitter: https://x.com/notthreadguy Twitch: https://twitch.tv/threadguy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/threadguyy/
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By @notthreadguy

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