MARKET OPEN: I SOLD ZCASH, The GUARANTEED 4-Year Cycle Bottom is in TWO DAYS, The Pope vs Anthropic
MARKET OPEN: I SOLD ZCASH, The GUARANTEED 4-Year Cycle Bottom is in TWO DAYS, The Pope vs Anthropic
19 hours ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube2 hr 34 min
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Favor spot Zcash (ZEC) over leveraged exposure if pursuing the host’s privacy-coin thesis; $5,000 by end-2026 is a highly speculative personal target, not a forecast.
  • Pump.fun (PUMP) is a higher-risk usage-and-revenue bet, with a speculative $0.02 target; monitor launchpad activity and revenue for signs the thesis is weakening.
  • Hyperliquid (HYPE) has a speculative $250 end-2026 target versus roughly $92 during the discussion, but depends on sustained demand for crypto trading infrastructure.
  • Keep crypto positions sized for sharp pullbacks and avoid leverage; the host said funding costs and liquidation risk made it harder to hold through volatility.
Detailed Analysis

Zcash (ZEC)

  • The host said he sold a leveraged ZEC position for a reported $315,190 profit, after previously moving profits from Pump.fun into ZEC. He later re-entered using spot ZEC, keeping some cash available for other trades.
  • His reasons for favoring ZEC included its privacy features, quantum resistance, long proof-of-work history, strong recent price action, and what he sees as growing interest in privacy.
  • He called ZEC his preferred asset among several altcoins and described its momentum as a sign that the market may continue to favor it.
  • Price targets discussed were $5,000 and, later, $10,000. The host said he could imagine $5,000 by the end of 2026; these were his personal, highly speculative targets, not established forecasts.

Takeaways

  • The host’s approach shifted from leveraged exposure toward spot ownership to make it easier to stay invested through large price swings.
  • He explicitly warned that leverage, funding costs, and volatile pullbacks had made it harder for him to hold positions toward his targets. ZEC’s potential upside was his view, not a guarantee.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin was reported around $85,000–$87,000 during the discussion. The host argued that the current cycle may differ from past cycles because the downturn had been shorter and shallower, and because some altcoins had risen while Bitcoin remained below its prior high.
  • He said he had recently become more willing to consider Bitcoin as an investment, while acknowledging that he had previously held a leveraged position without strong conviction.
  • The host rejected a chat participant’s $40,000 prediction rather than endorsing it.
  • He cited possible market concerns including stocks, bond yields, war, oil, and inflation, but said he did not believe these concerns necessarily invalidated his bullish crypto outlook.

Takeaways

  • The discussion’s main Bitcoin insight was that the host saw a potentially different cycle structure, not that a specific Bitcoin price target had been established.
  • The transcript repeatedly highlights the risk of trading Bitcoin and altcoins with leverage during sharp, fast moves.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

  • The host reported making about $401,000 on a prior leveraged Pump.fun trade, which he had closed roughly a month earlier.
  • He said he still believed Pump.fun could rise substantially and gave a personal target of $0.02. He also described Pump.fun as having durable revenue compared with newer launchpad competitors.
  • At the same time, he noted that launchpad activity and revenue can weaken, and he discussed a sharp decline in a competing platform’s volume. He said Pump.fun had experienced pullbacks and periods of reduced attention.
  • He referred to Pump.fun as an example of a coin that many people criticized while its price continued to rise.

Takeaways

  • The host’s thesis depends on sustained usage and revenue, as well as his belief that the market could reward established projects over newer launches.
  • His own experience illustrates the risk of selling too early—or holding leveraged positions through reversals. The $0.02 target was his opinion, not a certainty.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • The host included Hyperliquid among the altcoins he thought could stand on their own as investable assets, rather than relying solely on Bitcoin-driven liquidity.
  • He said he could imagine HYPE reaching $250 by the end of 2026. It was trading around $92 in the market commentary.
  • He suggested that large traditional investors could potentially become marginal buyers, but did not cite confirmed purchases by them.

Takeaways

  • The investment case presented was based on continued demand for crypto trading infrastructure and the possibility of new types of buyers.
  • The $250 figure was a speculative personal target, and the transcript did not establish a specific timeline for adoption or earnings growth beyond the host’s end-of-2026 scenario.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • NEAR was named among the altcoins the host thought could attract independent investment flows.
  • He said he could imagine NEAR reaching $15–$20. The transcript did not provide a detailed NEAR-specific catalyst or timeline.

Takeaways

  • The discussion offered a price scenario but limited supporting detail specific to NEAR. Treat the target as the host’s opinion rather than a forecast.

Venice (VVV)

  • The host said he could imagine Venice reaching $100 or more, while noting that he had previously been stopped out of a position after market concerns around a ZK-related development.
  • He described Venice as part of the group of altcoins he believed might attract buyers independently of Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • The host’s experience highlights execution risk: he said he had been stopped out despite continuing to see potential in the asset.
  • The $100+ target was speculative, and the transcript did not provide a specific timeline.

Solana (SOL)

  • The host used Solana as an example of how investors in the previous cycle could compound gains: trade smaller assets, take profits, and move those profits back into SOL as it rose.
  • He cited SOL’s past move from $8 to $260 as an example. In the market recap, SOL was around $120 and briefly described as down on the day.
  • Solana was also mentioned as an asset held by a guest trader, but the host did not give a new SOL price target.

Takeaways

  • The host’s example supports a profit-taking and reinvestment approach, but it does not show that the same performance will repeat.
  • SOL’s historical rise was used as an illustration, not a forecast.

Monero (XMR) and Other Crypto Assets

  • Monero (XMR): Mentioned as another privacy coin. The host said ZEC was his personal pick over Monero, partly because he thought ZEC traded particularly well. Monero was reported up during the market recap.
  • Lighter: Named alongside Hyperliquid as a perpetual-trading exchange project; it was reported up in the market recap.
  • Ethereum (ETH), Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), Sui (SUI), Arbitrum (ARB), Aave (AAVE), Pepe (PEPE), Pudgy Penguins (PENGU), and XRP: Mentioned in market updates, portfolio descriptions, or trader-position summaries. The host did not provide specific targets or detailed theses for most of them.
  • The host argued that some older altcoins with established revenue or usage could be gaining favor relative to new launches. He also noted that several previously popular tokens remained well below their all-time highs.

Takeaways

  • The broad thesis was selective rather than “all altcoins rise”: the host favored a small group of assets he believed could attract sustained demand and said weaker projects might continue to lag.
  • The transcript offered little asset-specific analysis for most of the tokens listed above, so their mention alone should not be treated as a recommendation.

Pokémon Cards and Collectibles

  • The host said he bought an on-chain asset after seeing growing interest in Pokémon cards and collectible “pull” platforms.
  • He compared scarce collectibles with NFTs, arguing that a limited supply and wealthy buyers could drive prices sharply higher. He mentioned an example of a Lugia card with a reported prior sale of $5,000 and an auction with bids reportedly reaching $4 million.
  • He also expressed interest in rare books and art, not only Pokémon cards.

Takeaways

  • The opportunity discussed was exposure to scarce physical collectibles and platforms built around them.
  • The host’s example illustrates potentially large price swings and limited supply; the transcript did not establish that the reported auction bid was a completed sale or that similar prices are broadly achievable.

Cerebras

  • The host said Cerebras shares rose after a Sam Altman post describing the companies as close partners with deep engagement on speed. He noted speculation about a partnership and reported the shares up roughly 8%–11% during the discussion.
  • No confirmed new commercial deal or financial details were provided in the transcript.

Takeaways

  • The move was presented as a headline- and partnership-speculation-driven trade, not as a conclusion based on disclosed financial results.
  • The transcript did not provide a ticker or establish the company’s listing status.

Roblox (RBLX), Unity (U), and Video Game Platforms

  • The host discussed AI-assisted game modding, including examples of games and game worlds being combined through mods. He called the trend potentially significant and suggested it could lead to a “golden age” of user-created game content.
  • He considered Roblox and Unity as possible ways to think about the trend. He said Roblox’s tools for generating games from prompts could make it a relevant platform, while noting that Unity is used in mobile and independent games.
  • He also said that lower game-development costs could increase competition for traditional game studios, while platforms might benefit from a larger volume of content.
  • Steam was discussed as a possible beneficiary of a larger modding ecosystem, but the host noted it was not publicly traded.

Takeaways

  • The investment theme is that AI tools could expand user-generated content and increase activity on platforms that host or distribute games.
  • The transcript did not establish which company would capture the most value. The host’s comments were exploratory, and the potential for increased competition was explicitly raised as a risk.

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)

  • The host said the market appeared to be pricing in the possibility that GTA 6 could disappoint, based on Take-Two’s weak share performance.
  • He said he was personally “pro-flop” on the game but also indicated he expected to buy it when it was released. No price target was given.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlighted uncertainty around expectations for a major game release, rather than providing a clear investment recommendation.
  • The host’s comments reflect a personal view about the game, not evidence that its commercial performance is known.

Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Oracle (ORCL), and Other Technology Stocks

  • The market recap described Nvidia as having recently reached an all-time high, with Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle all trading higher during the session.
  • The host and a guest discussed the possibility that AI could lower the cost of producing games and other digital content. The transcript did not offer company-specific earnings estimates or price targets for these large technology companies.
  • The host also mentioned SpaceX as trading higher, but provided no investment thesis or ticker.

Takeaways

  • The discussion was broadly favorable toward technology and AI-related activity, but it did not distinguish clearly among the large companies’ business prospects.
  • Daily price moves and the AI theme alone do not establish a company’s longer-term investment value.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and STRC

  • The host reported that Michael Saylor’s company bought 334 Bitcoin and repurchased $176 million of what he referred to as “Stretch,” apparently STRC.
  • He characterized the repurchase as a “horrific fail,” but did not explain the basis for that judgment or provide a detailed thesis on the company.

Takeaways

  • The company’s Bitcoin exposure means its investment profile is closely connected to Bitcoin’s price and related financing decisions.
  • The transcript reported the purchase and repurchase but did not provide enough detail to assess their impact on shareholders.

Broad U.S. Equities and Market Outlook

  • Investor Tom Lee said the S&P 500 could rise roughly 9%, with a possible level of 8,200–8,400. He argued that earnings growth could remain strong and that inflation pressures might ease.
  • Lee said that 10-year Treasury yields below 5% would be supportive of risk assets and suggested they could fall below that level over the following six months.
  • The host was more dismissive of concerns about yields, oil, war, and inflation, and argued that markets could keep rising despite those worries.
  • In the market recap, yields were described as rising, while oil prices were down for the day.

Takeaways

  • The bullish equity case in the discussion relied on earnings growth and the possibility of lower yields.
  • Yields, oil, inflation, and geopolitical events were explicitly raised as market concerns. Tom Lee’s S&P levels and yield outlook were opinions, not guarantees.

Anthropic and AI-Related Investment Themes

  • The host discussed Anthropic’s disagreement with Pope Leo over whether AI systems could be conscious and whether AI should be treated as having moral standing. He considered the dispute potentially relevant to Anthropic’s public image ahead of a possible IPO.
  • A prediction-market probability of 82% for an Anthropic IPO by December 31 was mentioned. The transcript did not provide an IPO valuation or indicate that a filing had occurred.
  • The host also discussed AI-generated video and AI tools for software and game development, arguing that these technologies could rapidly change content creation.

Takeaways

  • Anthropic’s IPO was presented as a possibility, not a confirmed event. The discussion raised reputational and public-perception questions but did not quantify their effect on the company.
  • AI was treated as a major investment theme, but the transcript did not establish which AI companies would ultimately capture the economic benefits.

Leverage and Portfolio Risk

  • The host described frequent dreams of being liquidated and losing his portfolio, and recounted losing a large amount in a hypothetical leveraged trading scenario.
  • He said that leveraged positions exposed him to funding costs and made it difficult to hold assets through pullbacks. He also described moving toward spot holdings and keeping cash available.
  • He warned that crypto prices could move sharply in both directions, including fast declines and liquidation-triggering wicks.

Takeaways

  • A central practical lesson from the discussion was that leverage can make a long-term thesis difficult to hold through volatility; the host favored spot exposure for some positions.
  • The transcript’s bullish price targets should be considered alongside its repeated warnings about funding costs, forced selling, and liquidation risk.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
I SOLD ZCASH, The GUARANTEED 4-Year Cycle Bottom is in TWO DAYS, The Pope vs Anthropic ‼️➡️ https://counterparty.tv 🔴Follow My Socials: Twitter: https://x.com/notthreadguy Twitch: https://twitch.tv/threadguy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/threadguyy/
About threadguy
threadguy

threadguy

By @notthreadguy

Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.