How I made $315,000 trading crypto
How I made $315,000 trading crypto
9 hours ago•threadguy•@notthreadguy
YouTube28 min 54 sec
Watch on YouTube
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider spot ZEC rather than leveraged exposure if pursuing the privacy-coin thesis; the speaker’s $5,000 by end-2026 target is highly speculative, and sharp losses remain possible.
  • Treat HYPE and NEAR as high-risk watchlist ideas, not forecasts: the speaker cited possible end-2026 targets of $250 and $15–$20, respectively.
  • Avoid relying on leveraged PUMP trades; its $0.02 end-2026 target is speculative, and volatility and funding costs can force premature selling.
  • Keep crypto positions sized to withstand major drawdowns, and verify the asset and ticker before considering Lighter or Venice, which were not clearly specified.
Detailed Analysis

Zcash (ZEC)

  • The speaker described ZEC as his preferred altcoin and said four of his five best-ever perpetual-futures trades had been in ZEC.
  • He said he closed a leveraged ZEC position for a reported $315,190 profit, then shifted much of his profits into spot ZEC so he could tolerate larger price swings without being forced to sell.
  • His bullish case was based on Zcash’s privacy features, quantum-resistance narrative, long-running proof-of-work distribution, and strong price action. He also argued that privacy-related concerns could support demand.
  • He named $5,000 as a possible target by the end of 2026 and said he would not be surprised by 5–10x gains across a group of favored altcoins. These are his speculative views, not established forecasts.
  • He said ZEC had traded as high as roughly $1,600 during the move he discussed. He also noted that funding costs and sharp pullbacks made his leveraged position difficult to hold.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s clearest practical lesson was to consider spot exposure rather than relying entirely on leverage when pursuing a long-term price thesis. Spot holdings avoid liquidation from leverage, though they can still lose substantial value.
  • Treat the $5,000 target as a highly uncertain personal view. The transcript also highlights the risks of volatile price swings, funding costs, and emotionally difficult trading.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

  • The speaker said his earlier PUMP trade generated about $401,000 and lasted roughly 27 days. He later regretted selling before the price rebounded.
  • He described holding a leveraged position through a rapid rise, then selling after a roughly 20% pullback while facing funding costs and pressure not to give back profits.
  • He named $0.02 as a possible target by the end of 2026, while emphasizing that he believed the token could rise substantially from the level discussed.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s experience illustrates how leverage can turn a long-term bullish view into a forced sale during a sharp pullback.
  • His target is speculative. The transcript does not establish that PUMP will reach it, and the speaker specifically described difficulty managing volatility and funding costs.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

  • The speaker included Hyperliquid among a small group of altcoins he believes could attract buyers independently of Bitcoin’s price moves.
  • He suggested $250 as a possible price by the end of 2026 and described Hyperliquid as an asset that could appeal to prominent institutional investors. That was his characterization, not evidence of institutional demand.

Takeaways

  • The investment thesis presented is that Hyperliquid could benefit from continued interest in crypto trading platforms and perpetual-futures exchanges.
  • The $250 target is speculative; no valuation analysis or supporting price model was provided in the transcript.

Lighter

  • The speaker grouped Lighter with Hyperliquid as part of the perpetual-futures exchange theme and included it among the assets he thought could stand on their own as investments.
  • He did not give a price target or detailed company- or token-specific rationale for Lighter.

Takeaways

  • The transcript presents Lighter as a way to gain exposure to the perp-DEX theme, but offers little detail for assessing its individual prospects.
  • Verify what asset or token is being discussed before acting; the transcript does not specify a ticker.

NEAR Protocol (NEAR)

  • The speaker included NEAR among his favored altcoins and said it could potentially reach $15–$20 by the end of 2026.
  • He grouped NEAR with projects he believes may attract demand beyond simply following Bitcoin.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s view is bullish, but the transcript provides no detailed valuation case for NEAR.
  • Treat the $15–$20 target as a personal, uncertain scenario rather than a reliable forecast.

Venice

  • The speaker described Venice as part of an AI-and-privacy theme and included it among the altcoins he believes could rise significantly.
  • He suggested a possible price of $100 or more by the end of 2026, but did not specify a ticker in the transcript.

Takeaways

  • The thesis combines interest in AI with demand for privacy-related products, but the transcript does not provide enough detail to evaluate the asset or confirm the instrument being discussed.
  • Verify the project and ticker before considering any investment. The price target is speculative.

Bitcoin (BTC)

  • Bitcoin was discussed mainly as a market-cycle reference point. The speaker said some favored altcoins had already risen substantially by the time Bitcoin made its first major move up.
  • He noted that Bitcoin had not yet moved above $100,000 or its all-time high at the time of the recording.
  • He argued that the altcoins he favored might continue to attract demand even if Bitcoin’s price action was choppy.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s thesis is that selected altcoins could outperform Bitcoin during parts of a cycle, but that outcome is uncertain and does not mean Bitcoin is irrelevant to crypto-market risk.
  • The transcript gives no specific Bitcoin price target.

Solana (SOL)

  • The speaker used Solana as an example of a strategy from the 2024 cycle: traders used SOL to trade meme coins, then moved profits back into SOL.
  • He suggested that holding a core asset while using a smaller portion of capital for active trading could allow gains to compound if the core asset rises.

Takeaways

  • The example is a portfolio-management approach, not a specific recommendation to buy SOL: taking profits from speculative trades and moving them into a chosen core holding.
  • Both meme-coin trading and holding a concentrated crypto position can involve substantial losses.

Monero (XMR)

  • The speaker addressed why he preferred Zcash over Monero, saying Zcash’s price action was more compelling to him.
  • He did not provide a separate Monero price target or a detailed comparison of the projects.

Takeaways

  • The transcript reflects a preference for ZEC based partly on trading momentum, not a full fundamental comparison.
  • No specific investment case or price outlook for XMR was presented.

Other altcoins: Berachain, Celestia, Sui, Avalanche, and Cardano

  • The speaker said Berachain, Celestia, Sui, Avalanche (AVAX), and Cardano (ADA) were far from their all-time highs.
  • He used their relative performance to argue that crypto-market flows may be concentrating in a smaller set of favored assets instead of lifting all altcoins equally.
  • His comments were comparatively bearish on these assets’ relative momentum, but he did not give individual price targets or explicit sell recommendations.

Takeaways

  • The speaker’s point is that altcoins may diverge sharply: past participation in a bull market does not guarantee that a token will lead the next leg.
  • Relative underperformance is not, by itself, proof that an asset cannot recover. The transcript offers no project-specific analysis for these coins.

Perpetual-futures trading and spot-versus-leverage strategy

  • The speaker described leverage as a source of pressure: it exposed him to funding costs, amplified the impact of pullbacks, and contributed to selling positions before his longer-term targets.
  • He said his revised approach was to hold a larger spot position, keep some cash available, and use a smaller portion of his portfolio for perpetual-futures trading.
  • He also said his main risk was using too much leverage and failing to hold positions long enough to reach his targets.

Takeaways

  • The transcript supports a general risk-management lesson: leverage can magnify losses and make it harder to follow a long-term thesis through normal volatility.
  • Spot holdings avoid leverage-related liquidation and funding costs, but they do not protect against a decline in the asset’s price.
  • The speaker’s approach is highly concentrated in crypto and should not be treated as a suitable allocation for every investor.

Crypto market themes and broader risks

  • The speaker was bullish on a small group of altcoins, including privacy-related assets, perp-DEX projects, and on-chain applications. He argued that some could attract investment independently of Bitcoin.
  • He said he believed the market could continue higher despite concerns about stocks, yields, war, oil, and inflation. He also argued that online commentary and fear-driven narratives had affected his decisions.
  • He mentioned Ethereum (ETH) only in passing, referring to an ETH-related development and “ETH fud”; he gave no investment view or price target for ETH.
  • No individual stocks or stock tickers were recommended. The speaker expressed a general view that stocks were unlikely to trade poorly, but did not present a specific equities investment thesis.

Takeaways

  • The transcript’s main market view is bullish but concentrated: the speaker expects selected crypto assets to outperform, rather than expecting every token to rise together.
  • The specific targets and cycle outlook are the speaker’s opinions. The discussion also makes clear that crypto volatility, leverage, funding costs, and difficulty maintaining conviction can materially affect results.
  • Consider independent research and risk limits rather than relying on social-media sentiment or another trader’s targets.
Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Video Description
🔴LIVE ON TWITCH: https://twitch.tv/threadguy (for those who saw we had to reupload due to tech difficulties sry) TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - why I sold $ZEC 4:23 - avoiding being a forced seller 7:45 - why the market shakes you out 10:18 - rotating to spot $ZEC 12:12 - the $ZEC mandate of heaven 14:41 - bad coins to good coins 19:39 - crypto Twitter costs you money 26:44 - bears sound smart, bulls make money ‼️➡️ https://counterparty.tv 🔴Follow My Socials: Twitter: https://x.com/notthreadguy Twitch: https://twitch.tv/threadguy Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/threadguyy/ This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, trading, legal, or tax advice. We may hold positions in assets discussed. Viewers should do their own research and consult a professional before making any financial decisions. Full disclosures: counterparty.tv/disclosures
About threadguy
threadguy

threadguy

By @notthreadguy

Stocks, crypto, politics, culture, and the great financialization of everything. Threadguy is live every weekday from New York with analysis, commentary, and interviews with leading figures across the space of internet markets.