Consider a long position in Ethena (ENA), which is viewed as a strong cash-generating company with a potential catalyst from the upcoming Hyperliquid stablecoin vote. Similarly, the pre-market asset Hyperliquid (HYPE) is seen as a high-conviction long-term investment due to the profitability of its exchange business. A major investment theme to monitor is the potential legalization of perpetual futures in the U.S. within the next one to two years. This regulatory shift could be a massive catalyst for the crypto industry and disrupt the current exchange landscape. Such a change could create opportunities in platforms that are well-positioned to offer compliant perp products, potentially benefiting international exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Bybit.

Ethena (ENA)

• The speaker, Diogenes, is currently long ENA. He mentions buying in at a price of "five or six", but notes he can't remember the exact price. (Note: This price seems inconsistent with ENA's known trading history, and may refer to a pre-market valuation or a different metric).
• Bullish Thesis: He describes Ethena as an "absurd cash generation company" that he believes will perform very well.
• Team Signal: A major factor in his conviction is that his former boss at Amber, whom he considers a "killer" trader and who was previously very skeptical of joining crypto companies, is now at Ethena.
• Hyperliquid Stablecoin Proposal: Ethena is considered one of the two most serious contenders (along with Maker) to become the official stablecoin for the Hyperliquid exchange.
  • Diogenes notes that Ethena has a "closer historical relationship with Hyperliquid" and has been very involved with the ecosystem, such as launching USDe markets on Hyper EVM.
  • He views Ethena's offer to "bribe" voters (a common crypto term for paying for votes) as a standard and savvy move, not something unprecedented or negative.

Takeaways

• The sentiment on ENA is strongly bullish.
• The investment thesis is based on the project's ability to generate significant revenue and the high quality of its team.
• A potential upcoming catalyst is the vote to become Hyperliquid's official stablecoin. A win could be a significant positive for the project.

Hyperliquid (HYPE)

• Diogenes is also long HYPE, mentioning he bought at around a $14 valuation. (Note: HYPE is not yet a publicly traded token, so this price likely refers to points markets or a pre-launch valuation).
• Bullish Thesis: Similar to his thesis on Ethena, he views Hyperliquid as an "absurd cash generation company".
• Stablecoin Context: The ongoing vote to select an official stablecoin for the platform is a major topic of discussion.
  • Diogenes believes the market is "over-indexing how important" the outcome is in the short term. He clarifies the proposal is about selecting an official stablecoin ticker and quote asset, not necessarily making it the sole collateral for perpetual futures trading (at least not yet).
  • He believes the real competition is between Ethena and Maker.

Takeaways

• The sentiment on HYPE is bullish for the long term, based on the strength and profitability of the underlying exchange business.
• While the stablecoin vote is a significant event, investors should understand its immediate impact might be less than what is currently hyped up on social media.

Pump.fun (PUMP)

• Diogenes notes that the project is "stuttering a little bit" compared to Ethena and Hyperliquid, and that the timing of its token launch was "not as great."
• Bullish on Founders: Despite the recent stutter, he states he "wouldn't bet against" the founders. He heard from a trusted source that the founders are "really smart" and are grinders with a strong user focus.
• Future Potential: He believes the team's work on "streaming" is "really interesting" and that they are working on other things that could drive future growth.
• Token Launch Blunder: He points out that a major issue with the launch was that "no major exchanges got any pump tokens for the traders," calling it potentially "the biggest blunder of the cycle."

Takeaways

• The short-term sentiment is mixed, but the long-term outlook is bullish due to the perceived strength and dedication of the founding team.
• The fact that major exchanges did not receive an allocation for the token launch could imply significant pent-up demand or future catalysts if and when the token gets listed on major venues.

Investment Theme: Perpetual Futures (Perps)

• Major Prediction: Diogenes believes perpetual futures (perps) are "probably going to become legal in the U.S." within the next one to two years.
• Product Superiority: He argues that perps are a "way more intuitive product than fucking options" for the average retail trader, who likely doesn't understand the complex mathematics (Greeks) behind options pricing.
• Market Expansion: Legalization could open up the design space for new products, such as equity perps, especially as traditional exchanges like the Nasdaq begin to tokenize stocks.
• Competitive Disruption: This regulatory shift could be highly disruptive.
  • The CFTC has indicated a potential path for major international exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Bybit to operate in the US.
  • This could put significant pressure on US-based exchanges like Coinbase, which the speaker describes as "atrocious."

Takeaways

• Investors should closely monitor the US regulatory landscape regarding perpetual futures.
• Legalization would be a massive catalyst for the crypto industry and could significantly alter the competitive dynamics among exchanges.
• This could create new investment opportunities in platforms that are well-positioned to offer compliant perp products in the US, and it could pose a risk to existing US exchanges that are slow to adapt.

Investment Theme: DAO Takeovers & Distressed Assets

• Diogenes described a successful past strategy of conducting "takeover" trades on crypto projects, specifically Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs).
• The Strategy: The core idea is to find projects where the assets in the treasury are worth more than the total market capitalization of the project's token. He gave an example where you could "buy $2.5 for a dollar."
• Case Study: Faye (FAI):
  • He identified that the Faye protocol was a "capital destroyer" but held a large treasury of cash. The team was "checked out."
  • He made a governance proposal for the project to shut down and distribute its assets to token holders.
  • The proposal passed, and the project shut down a month later, resulting in a 100-150% return during a bear market.

Takeaways

• This highlights a niche, advanced "value investing" strategy within crypto.
• It shows that opportunities can exist to purchase tokens for less than their "book value" by analyzing a project's treasury.
• For the general investor, this serves as a reminder that deep fundamental analysis can uncover unique opportunities, especially in projects with large treasuries and inactive development.

Bitcoin (BTC)

• Peter Thiel's View: The famous investor is described as very pro-Bitcoin due to his libertarian principles. His fund, Founders Fund, reportedly bought "hundreds of millions" worth of Bitcoin near the bottom and is now up approximately 5x.
• Historical Context: The speaker shared an anecdote about Warren Buffett calling Bitcoin "rat poison squared" at a conference when the price was around $1,000. This highlights the significant returns generated for those who invested against mainstream skepticism.
• Use Case: Diogenes' first personal use of crypto was sending money from Argentina to the US using Bitcoin to bypass the country's "aggressive capital controls."

Takeaways

• While no direct, current trade was mentioned, the discussion around Bitcoin was overwhelmingly bullish.
• The conversation reinforces Bitcoin's core value propositions: a hedge against traditional finance skepticism (Thiel's view) and a tool for circumventing capital controls and censorship.