Coyote: Trading Memecoins in 2025, Prediction Markets and More | TG Podcast
Coyote: Trading Memecoins in 2025, Prediction Markets and More | TG Podcast
261 days agothreadguy@notthreadguy
YouTube29 min 27 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

The GambleFi and Prediction Markets sector is identified as a major emerging theme with significant growth potential. For a high-risk, venture-style bet, consider the token Flipper, which aims to dominate prediction markets by introducing leverage and simplifying the user experience. With a low market cap, Flipper offers substantial upside if its anonymous team delivers on its ambitious technology. Another high-conviction play is the memecoin Tokabu, which is successfully attracting new buyers from the gambling world. Investors should consider adding Tokabu to their watchlist and waiting for a significant price pullback before entering a position.

Detailed Analysis

Tokabu

  • The speaker, Coyote, previously recommended this memecoin at a $5 million market cap. It has since seen a significant increase in value (mentioned as "many X's," around 7x at the time of recording).
  • Despite the run-up, Coyote believes the investment thesis is "just starting" and remains "super bullish" on its long-term potential.
  • The core narrative behind Tokabu is its alignment with the emerging "GambleFi" sector, which revolves around the hyper-financialization of gambling-related activities.
  • A key strength identified is its community, described as having "divine solidarity." This refers to a strong, mission-driven belief among holders that transcends short-term price changes, which is seen as essential for reaching extremely high valuations.
    • An example provided is the organic adoption by professional poker players, who are changing their profile pictures to Tokabu, suggesting it's successfully attracting its target audience of "net new buyers" from the gambling world.

Takeaways

  • Tokabu is presented as a high-risk, high-reward investment centered on the GambleFi narrative.
  • Its potential for massive growth is tied to its strong community and its ability to attract capital from outside the typical crypto-native audience.
  • The speaker noted that while he is bullish, he is likely not a buyer at the current price due to his large existing position. He would, however, "be a buyer again" if the price were "much lower." This suggests that potential investors might consider waiting for a significant price drop or pullback before entering a position.

Flipper

  • Flipper is a token connected to the prediction markets sector. The project aims to solve the two biggest hurdles for prediction markets like Polymarket: poor user experience (UX) and low liquidity.
  • The project's main product is a trading terminal designed to simplify trading on prediction markets. Its most ambitious and compelling feature is the introduction of leverage.
  • The speaker highlights a "space race" narrative, suggesting that this small, anonymous team may have successfully built a leverage product for prediction markets before large, well-funded VC firms like Paradigm, which were actively looking to fund such a project.
  • The token's market cap was noted as being very low at the time of the podcast, around $11-12 million, with 70% of the supply in circulation.
  • The team is anonymous ("undoxxed"), but they reportedly have backgrounds in FAANG (top tech companies) and other crypto protocols.

Takeaways

  • Flipper is positioned as a high-risk, venture-capital-style bet. The investment thesis is that it could become the "Unibot for prediction markets," a tool that dramatically simplifies access and unlocks new potential through leverage.
  • If the team's technology is legitimate and they have truly solved leveraged trading for this sector, the potential upside from its current low market cap is substantial.
  • The primary risks are the anonymous team and the fact that the technology is new and relatively unproven. An investment in Flipper is a bet that this team can deliver on its ambitious promises and capture a significant share of the growing prediction market sector.

General Investment Strategies & Themes

Identifying High-Potential Coins

  • The podcast outlines a two-part framework for identifying memecoins with the potential for parabolic growth:
    • 1. Outside Flows: The coin must have a narrative or appeal that can attract net new buyers from outside the core crypto community. The example given was Dog with hat (WIF), which successfully attracted mainstream retail investors.
    • 2. Divine Solidarity: The community must be united by a mission or belief that is "bigger than themselves." This strong conviction allows them to hold through extreme volatility and avoid selling during downturns. The example cited was SPX.

Key Trading Lessons & Cautionary Tales

  • Avoid the "DCA of Death": A strong warning was issued against Dollar Cost Averaging into a losing position. This is often driven by emotion and ego rather than sound logic.
    • The host shared a personal story of losing $800,000 on the token GOAT because he refused to accept that the market had proven his thesis wrong. This was described as an "ego trade."
    • Key Insight: You must be willing to cut your losses and admit when you are wrong. The market is the ultimate judge. Ask yourself: "Do you want to be right, or do you want to make money?"
  • Add to Your Winners: The podcast championed the opposite strategy: adding to positions that are already performing well.
    • A quote from trader @contrarian_curse was highlighted: "I've almost exclusively expanded positions higher and my god do the results say it all."
    • Key Insight: When a trade is moving in your favor, it provides confirmation that your thesis is likely correct. This is a higher probability moment to increase your position size compared to buying a falling asset.

Emerging Sector: GambleFi & Prediction Markets

  • This sector is identified as a major emerging theme for this cycle, focused on the "hyper-financialization" of everything.
  • Prediction markets have demonstrated their value (e.g., by being more accurate than traditional polls for the election), but their growth is currently bottlenecked by being too difficult for the average person to use.
  • Key Insight: The biggest investment opportunities in this space will likely be projects that solve these user experience and accessibility problems, effectively creating a simple front-end for a complex financial backend.
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