The Prof G Pod – Scott Galloway

International investors should consider hedging their US Dollar exposure to protect against its perceived weakness, which significantly impacted unhedged returns in 2025. Re-evaluate your allocation to US Treasuries, as they are no longer viewed as a completely risk-free asset due to a growing political risk premium. Be aware that headline performance of US markets can be misleading; always measure your returns in your local currency. The primary investment risk identified is unpredictable US political action, which is eroding global trust in US financial stability. This environment suggests using strategies to mitigate US-specific geopolitical risk within your portfolio.

A potential consumer boycott campaign is creating short-term risk for major tech and AI stocks. This action specifically targets Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Netflix (NFLX). The campaign encourages users to cancel subscriptions, which could negatively impact revenues and user engagement for these companies. This presents a potential bearish catalyst and a reason for caution for investors holding these names. Companies with significant subscription-based models are considered the most vulnerable to this consumer-led pressure.

Consider diversifying your portfolio away from US-centric assets, as a "great rotation" into international markets is underway due to a weakening dollar and rising political risk. European markets are particularly attractive, with strong potential in industrials, infrastructure, defense, and financials driven by targeted government spending. Japanese markets also present an opportunity, as rising domestic bond yields may encourage significant capital to return home. Exercise extreme caution with the AI sector, as the current hype may lead to valuation corrections of 50-60% for leaders like NVDA if profitability is not proven. This durable shift suggests that international markets in Europe and Japan are poised to continue outperforming US equities.

Consider Adobe (ADBE) as a contrarian value investment opportunity. The premier design software company has seen its stock fall over 50% from its 2021 peak due to concerns about slowing growth, competition, and the impact of AI. This significant sell-off has pushed ADBE to its cheapest valuation levels in over a decade. The stock now trades at a Price-to-Earnings ratio of 18, which is roughly 50% below its five-year average and cheaper than the S&P 500. This presents a potential opportunity to buy a high-quality company at a historically attractive price.

Consider the strength of Microsoft's (MSFT) business, as its LinkedIn advertising platform represents a powerful and potentially underappreciated revenue stream. Conversely, be cautious with the broader Big Tech and AI sectors, as their elevated valuations make them vulnerable to corrections. Specifically, Palantir (PLTR) faces significant reputational and political risk due to its controversial government contracts, which could negatively impact its stock price. The overall market, represented by the S&P 500, is also viewed as frothy and susceptible to a downturn triggered by political events. Investors should therefore be prepared for volatility and monitor how political sentiment affects these highly-valued assets.

The Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady is a positive signal for the stock market, suggesting an openness to future rate cuts. This "dovish hold" creates a favorable environment for equities, as lower borrowing costs can boost corporate profits and make stocks more attractive. An improving economy and stable job market further support the case for continued strength in corporate earnings. Investors should closely monitor upcoming inflation reports, as signs of cooling could trigger a rate cut and act as a major catalyst for the market. Consider this a supportive backdrop for maintaining or increasing exposure to broad market index funds like SPY or QQQ.

The recent dip in Microsoft (MSFT) presents a potential buying opportunity, as the market seems to have overreacted to a minor detail while its core cloud business remains strong. Consider Adobe (ADBE) as a value play, as it trades at its lowest valuation in over a decade despite strong fundamentals and growth from its AI and video editing tools. NVIDIA (NVDA) is viewed as the primary beneficiary of the AI boom, making any weakness a potential entry point for long-term investors. Conversely, exercise caution with Google (GOOGL), whose high valuation may be driven more by AI hype than its current growth rates compared to peers. For those concerned about long-term U.S. dollar weakness, consider assets like gold and Bitcoin as potential hedges against inflation.

The Medicare Advantage sector is facing a significant profit squeeze due to unexpectedly low government payment rate increases. This policy creates a major headwind for insurers, as revenue growth will not keep pace with rising healthcare costs. Humana (HUM) is one of the most exposed companies due to its heavy concentration in this market, reflected in its recent 21% stock drop. Other major insurers like UnitedHealth (UNH) and CVS Health (CVS) also experienced sharp declines and face similar profitability challenges. Investors should exercise caution with this sector until companies demonstrate a clear strategy to navigate these lower payment rates.

A new EU-India free trade agreement creates a long-term investment opportunity by aiming to double European exports to India within six years. Investors can gain exposure to European companies poised to benefit through broad-market ETFs that track major European indices. This deal is also a major catalyst for the Indian economy, making it an attractive area for investment. Consider a country-specific ETF like INDA to capitalize on this expected long-term growth. This investment theme is best suited for those with a multi-year time horizon.

Consider reducing exposure to major health insurers like UnitedHealth (UNH), which faces significant regulatory headwinds from insufficient Medicare Advantage payment rates. As a potential alternative, analysts favor Alignment Health (ALHC) for its conservative practices, positioning it as a more defensive investment in the sector. The expansion of Chinese EV makers into North America presents a major long-term competitive threat to Western automakers, including Tesla. Investors should also be cautious about the Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector, as calls for heavy government regulation from industry leaders signal a significant risk to future growth. This potential AI regulation and the forecast of massive white-collar job displacement within five years present major macroeconomic headwinds to monitor.

The current investment opportunity in TikTok's US operations is a private deal unavailable to the general public. Parent company ByteDance is not a publicly traded entity, so retail investors cannot buy its stock. The deal is structured to allow ByteDance to retain its valuable core algorithm, which is a key asset. However, significant political and regulatory risks remain for TikTok in the US due to unresolved security concerns. This situation highlights the value of investing in public companies that possess strong, proprietary technology as a competitive advantage.

With market anxiety driving gold to record highs, investors should explore alternative safe-haven assets. For those seeking a modern store of value outside the traditional financial system, consider researching Bitcoin (BTC). To reduce exposure to US-specific risks, diversifying into international stocks is a prudent strategy. A direct investment into escalating geopolitical tensions is the defense and weapons manufacturing sector. These themes offer ways to position your portfolio for ongoing global uncertainty.

The recent deal for TikTok's US operations creates a direct investment opportunity through its new technology partner, Oracle (ORCL). As part of the agreement, Oracle is acquiring a 15% stake in the highly profitable US entity. The company will also serve as the key technology partner responsible for securing and managing the new US-based algorithm. This strategic position could unlock significant new revenue in cloud services and make its TikTok stake a highly valuable asset for shareholders. Investors looking for exposure to this development should consider ORCL as the primary way to participate in the deal.

Recent political purges in China signal increasing instability and a significant rise in geopolitical risk for investors. This extreme consolidation of power is a strong bearish signal for Chinese markets, as it creates an unpredictable environment for businesses. Investors should carefully review their exposure to Chinese assets due to the heightened risk of sudden and arbitrary policy changes. Consider reducing positions in broad China-focused ETFs like FXI and MCHI. The current political climate suggests that capital invested in the region is facing a greater threat than previously understood.

Amid rising geopolitical risk, consider safe-haven assets like gold or gold miners such as Zijin Mining Group as a hedge against global uncertainty. A recent bullish report from Morgan Stanley suggests a potential turning point for beaten-down Hong Kong property stocks, including Hongkai Properties, Hanglong Properties, and CK Asset Holdings. Conversely, investors should be cautious with broad Chinese equities like the CSI 300, as valuations are historically high without support from corporate earnings. For targeted China exposure, focus on sectors aligned with the government's strategy, such as advanced manufacturing and technology. In the US, Oracle (ORCL) stands to benefit from the TikTok deal as a major equity holder in the new American joint venture.

Investors should exercise extreme caution with gold, as its recent surge to over $5,000 shows signs of a speculative bubble driven by narrative rather than fundamentals. Instead of chasing gold, consider alternative hedges against US-centric risk, such as industrial metals like copper and lithium or stocks in countries with low debt like Norway. Re-evaluate holdings in Bitcoin (BTC), as it is currently failing to act as a "digital gold" or safe-haven asset. Monitor Meta (META), which could gain market share if the new ownership structure under Oracle (ORCL) disrupts the user experience on TikTok. Finally, watch the next Federal Reserve Chair selection closely, as a dovish appointee like BlackRock's Rick Reeder could be a significant bullish catalyst for stocks.

Consider long-term investments in dominant platform companies like Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOGL) due to their powerful "operating system" business models. However, exercise caution as the broader tech sector may be overvalued, with current market sentiment drawing comparisons to the 1999 dot-com bubble. It is wise to review your portfolio for over-concentration in highly-valued technology stocks to manage potential downside risk. This is especially important given the rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China. Assess your holdings for significant exposure to global trade risks, particularly those with heavy reliance on China.

The podcasting industry is emerging as a highly profitable media segment, disrupting traditional television with a lower-cost, high-margin business model. The most direct way to invest in this trend is through the dominant distribution platform, Spotify (SPOT), which is capitalizing on the shift to video podcasts. Conversely, investors should be cautious with traditional media companies like CNN, which are struggling with declining viewership and aging demographics. Spotify's central role in podcast discovery and monetization positions it to capture significant value as the industry matures. This makes investing in a platform like SPOT a more strategic approach than risking capital on unproven individual podcasts.

A major investment theme is emerging in the European Defense Sector due to mounting geopolitical pressure for increased military spending. While governments have been slow to act, the need for self-reliance is creating a long-term growth catalyst for the industry. Companies in this sector are poised to benefit from a substantial rise in revenue as new government contracts are awarded. Investors should consider building positions in European defense companies for potential future growth. Monitor for concrete announcements of increased national defense budgets as a key indicator for this trend.

An imminent military conflict with Iran is predicted, making the defense sector a high-conviction trade; watch Lockheed Martin (LMT) which reports earnings soon. Artificial Intelligence (AI) remains the dominant investment theme, with NVIDIA (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) positioned as core holdings for exposure to this trend. For long-term investors, the