The Worlds Best Investor Just Bought Google
The Worlds Best Investor Just Bought Google
Podcast39 min 8 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Following Warren Buffett's major investment, consider Google (GOOGL) as a top opportunity, with some analysts believing it is worth at least $320 per share due to its strong position in AI and reasonable valuation. Amazon (AMZN) is another high-conviction idea, highlighted by a significant 20% position increase from a concentrated fund, signaling strong confidence in its future growth. For investors seeking stability, payment networks like Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) are presented as wonderful buys with potential upside, attracting capital from major funds. Consider the under-the-radar industrial leader GE Aerospace (GE), which has a powerful competitive moat in engine manufacturing and is the largest holding in a major concentrated fund. A recent purchase of FICO (FICO) by a notable firm during a sell-off suggests it could be a timely value opportunity in a high-quality data business.

Detailed Analysis

Google (GOOG/GOOGL)

  • Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has initiated a new, large position in Google, amounting to 1.62% of their public portfolio. This is a significant move that immediately makes Google a top 10 holding for Berkshire.
  • The host of the podcast is extremely bullish on Google, calling it the "best risk-adjusted stock in the market for the past six months."
  • The purchase by Berkshire is seen as a major stamp of approval and validation for the company's long-term prospects.
  • The host believes the competitive threat from ChatGPT has "fizzled out" and the downside risk for the stock has been erased.
  • Bullish Catalysts Mentioned:
    • Valuation: Considered low at a 27 P/E ratio, with potential for the multiple to expand to 30.
    • AI Leadership: The company is at the forefront of AI with its Gemini models.
    • Waymo: The self-driving car (RoboTaxi) division is viewed as a real, executing, and valuable business that competitors like Apple failed to build.
    • Diversification & Growth: Strong growth is expected from YouTube and Google Cloud, both of which are projected to more than double in size over the next 4-5 years.
    • Vertical Integration: Google is developing its own TPU chips, reducing reliance on NVIDIA.
  • Some notable investors like Bill Ackman and Chris Hohn (TCI Fund) trimmed their Google positions. The host believes this is a mistake and that the stock is poised to go much higher, with a belief that it's worth at least $320 per share.

Takeaways

  • Warren Buffett's significant investment provides a strong signal of confidence in Google's future, suggesting it is a long-term holding for Berkshire.
  • For investors who are already in Google, this is a moment of validation. For those who are not, the host makes a strong case that it's a compelling opportunity due to its reasonable valuation, multiple growth drivers, and strong competitive position in AI.
  • The fact that some successful investors are trimming their positions could be for portfolio rebalancing or risk management, but the podcast's view is that the long-term growth story remains intact and selling now could mean missing out on future gains.

Apple (AAPL)

  • Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its position in Apple.
  • The stock is contrasted with Google, with the host noting that Apple has a higher valuation and slower growth.
  • While Apple's competitive advantage (its "moat") is considered very strong and less questioned than Google's, the combination of a high price and slower growth makes it appear less attractive than Google at the moment.

Takeaways

  • The slight trim by Berkshire, combined with the host's analysis, suggests that while Apple is a great company, its stock may offer less upside compared to other big tech names like Google from a valuation perspective.

Payment Networks (Visa, MasterCard)

  • Chris Hohn (TCI Fund) sold a large portion of his Google stock and appears to have moved that capital into Visa (V).
  • Visa is described as a "not a battleground stock" with "no big unknowns or question marks," highlighting its appeal as a lower-risk, high-quality investment.
  • Chuck Acrie's firm reduced its MasterCard (MA) position, while Value Act Capital bought Visa.
  • The host believes that Visa, MasterCard, and American Express are all "wonderful buys today," but specifically notes that Visa and MasterCard may have more upside.

Takeaways

  • Payment network stocks like Visa and MasterCard are presented as stable, high-quality investments for investors seeking to avoid the volatility of "battleground" tech stocks.
  • The moves by major funds suggest a preference for Visa, which is seen as a safe haven for capital. This could be a good area for investors to look for stability and steady growth.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • The host is very bullish on Amazon, stating it is one of the two big tech companies he is most optimistic about, alongside Google.
  • Altarock Partners, a highly concentrated fund, showed strong conviction by adding significantly to its Amazon position, increasing it by 20%.
  • In contrast, Value Act Capital trimmed its Amazon position slightly.

Takeaways

  • Similar to Google, Amazon is highlighted as a top-tier investment opportunity in the tech sector.
  • The significant buy from a concentrated fund like Altarock signals high confidence in the company's future, suggesting that investors looking for growth in big tech should consider Amazon.

GE Aerospace (GE)

  • This is the largest position (27% weighting) in Chris Hohn's highly concentrated TCI Fund.
  • The stock has been an incredible performer, up 500% over the past five years and 80% year-to-date, yet is not widely discussed.
  • The investment thesis is compared to that of ASML: GE Aerospace builds extremely complex aerospace engines that are very difficult for competitors to replicate, giving it a powerful and durable moat.
  • It has a diversified customer base (airlines), making it less reliant on any single customer.

Takeaways

  • GE Aerospace is presented as a high-quality, under-the-radar industrial company with a strong competitive advantage.
  • Its performance and position in a top investor's portfolio suggest it could be a worthwhile company for investors to research, especially those looking for industrial leaders with monopolistic characteristics.

Other Notable Mentions

  • FICO (FICO): Chuck Acrie's firm bought a sizable position during a recent sell-off. The host views this as a "great trade," suggesting the stock may have been undervalued.
    • Takeaway: Investors might want to look at FICO as a potential value opportunity in a high-quality data and analytics business.
  • Uber (UBER): This is Bill Ackman's top holding and has been a "home run" for him.
    • Takeaway: As a core holding for a successful activist investor, Uber is highlighted as a strong performer in the platform/tech space.
  • Chipotle (CMG): Bill Ackman has been reducing his position in Chipotle, which has been "clobbered" recently.
    • Takeaway: This serves as a reminder that even high-quality growth stocks can face significant downturns, and trimming positions on the way up can be a prudent strategy.
  • MongoDB (MDB) & Toast (TOST): Value Act Capital initiated positions in these companies. However, the host expressed skepticism, noting they "do not have the moat that I'd look for."
    • Takeaway: These are growth stocks that may be interesting, but investors should perform extra due diligence on their long-term competitive advantages before investing.
  • Brookfield (BN vs. BAM): Investor Josh Tarasov sold Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) and bought Brookfield Corporation (BN).
    • Takeaway: For investors interested in the Brookfield ecosystem, this specific trade from a followed investor is a flag to research the strategic differences between the two entities.
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Episode Description
Today's episode we look at Warren Buffett's buy into Google and review the portfolio changes of top Super Investors.
About The Joseph Carlson Show
The Joseph Carlson Show

The Joseph Carlson Show

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