The Joseph Carlson Show

Investors should consider building positions in Uber (UBER) and DoorDash (DASH), which are currently trading at attractive discounts of 30% and 40% from recent highs. Focus on UBER as a high-quality growth play with strong free cash flow and a dominant membership model, targeting a long-term revenue growth rate of 10–15%. DASH offers a faster-growing alternative with a commanding 60–70% market share and high-margin recurring revenue from its 35 million DashPass members. For those holding Alphabet (GOOGL), recent price dips caused by talent departures represent a buying opportunity, as the company’s massive infrastructure and distribution moat remain intact. To fund these "durable growth" shifts, consider taking partial profits on overextended semiconductor stocks like ASML, especially where valuations have outpaced fundamental cash flows.

Consider a contrarian "buy" position in Meta Platforms (META), which is currently trading at a significant discount with a forward P/E of 18x compared to the broader Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) at 27x. Despite recent price stagnation, the company is maintaining strong fundamentals with projected revenue growth of nearly 30% and record engagement across Facebook and Instagram. Investors should view META's aggressive AI capital expenditures as a long-term competitive moat rather than a waste of capital, providing a value entry point into a high-growth tech giant. Conversely, avoid Snap Inc. (SNAP) as the company faces strategic failure and capital waste following the launch of its bulky, overpriced $2,000 AR Spectacles. Focus your portfolio on these "left behind" global stocks to avoid the risks of momentum investing and the potential for dramatic drawdowns seen in previous hype cycles like ARK Invest (ARKK).

Maintain high conviction in ASML, which is currently trending toward a price target of $2,000 per share as it nears all-time highs. Alphabet (GOOGL) remains a primary recovery play and a top-tier holding at 15.5% of the portfolio, while Amazon (AMZN) continues to show strong momentum as a core digital platform leader. For non-tech diversification, aggressively build a position in Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) toward a 5% weighting, as the company is successfully gaining market share despite high input costs. Exercise extreme caution regarding SpaceX and Anthropic due to excessive revenue multiples and heightening regulatory risks in the private tech sector. Monitor Casey’s General Stores (CASY) for a valuation pullback before entering, while staying bullish on the continued upward momentum of Uber (UBER) and DoorDash (DASH).

Amazon (AMZN) is a top conviction buy trading 14% off its highs with a long-term price target of $300+, driven by its dominant logistics, ads, and AWS segments. High-quality compounders MasterCard (MA) and S&P Global (SPGI) are currently available at attractive five-year valuation lows, offering rare entry points into market-leading financial infrastructure. Microsoft (MSFT) and Uber (UBER) present significant "buy the dip" opportunities, as both are trading roughly 30% below recent peaks despite strong fundamental growth in AI and operating leverage. For aggressive growth, DoorDash (DASH) and Duolingo (DUOL) are high-conviction plays for investors willing to endure volatility for potential 100% returns as they scale their digital platforms. Avoid the upcoming SpaceX IPO leverage instruments like SPCF, and instead maintain a "Core-Satellite" strategy with 50% in broad ETFs like VOO or SCHG to balance these individual stock picks.

Prioritize Google (GOOGL) over Meta (META) for AI infrastructure plays, as GOOGL can raise capital with minimal 1.8% shareholder dilution compared to META’s much costlier 5-6% dilution risk. Focus on AI "ecosystem" leaders like Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta that possess deep customer lock-in rather than companies solely developing commoditized AI models. Adobe (ADBE) presents a high-quality value opportunity at a 10% free cash flow yield, provided upcoming earnings confirm AI is an additive tool rather than a disruptor to its user base. Exercise caution with AI semiconductors like Broadcom (AVGO) and Oracle (ORCL), as the market now requires aggressive upward guidance revisions, not just earnings beats, to maintain current valuations. Monitor the potential SpaceX IPO, as a rumored $75 billion offering may trigger broader market selling as investors liquidate other positions to participate.

Investors should view Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL / GOOG) as a long-term compounding machine rather than a share-buyback play, as the company initiates a massive $80 billion equity raise to dominate AI infrastructure. Despite the share dilution, the stock remains a high-conviction hold because Google owns the entire AI stack—from custom TPU chips to Gemini models—and is currently seeing "unprecedented" demand that exceeds its current supply. Beyond big tech, look for high-growth opportunities in the entertainment sector by backing low-budget, creator-led films that are significantly outperforming legacy Disney franchises at the box office. Broadly, maintain a long-term bullish posture on the U.S. stock market to capture a generational wealth transfer and a potential acceleration of GDP growth toward 4%. Finally, protect your capital by ignoring short-term "pump" recommendations from influencers and short-sellers like Citron Research, focusing instead on verified company fundamentals.

Investors should prioritize Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) as top-tier picks for the next year, as these hyperscalers are positioned to regain market power by using internal silicon to lower AI costs. Maintain a long-term core position in ASML to gain low-risk exposure to essential AI infrastructure, leveraging its monopoly on the machines required for advanced chip production. Avoid cyclical memory stocks like Micron (MU) and legacy software names like Salesforce (CRM) or Adobe (ADBE), as their business models face significant threats from AI commoditization and shifting demand. Consider Alphabet (GOOGL) a high-conviction winner over a five-year horizon, specifically due to YouTube’s dominance in disrupting traditional media and its low-overhead content model. For diversified growth, look toward Uber (UBER), DoorDash (DASH), and S&P Global (SPGI), which possess physical moats and proprietary data sets that AI cannot easily replicate.

Monitor the upcoming SpaceX (SPCX) IPO in June, as a restricted supply of only 4% to 5% of shares could drive a massive price surge despite a high 80x price-to-sales valuation. While NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the fundamental leader in AI hardware with record-breaking free cash flow, consider diversifying into "secondary" AI plays as hyperscalers develop internal chips. Investors should consider exiting Intuit (INTU) due to concerns that AI disruption is eroding its tax-filing moat and pricing power. Following a total exit from Intuit, a high-conviction reallocation strategy involves moving capital into Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and S&P Global (SPGI). Focus on Amazon (AMZN) for 50% of new allocations to capture its dominance in logistics and cloud infrastructure.

Consider building a core position in Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL), as heavy buying from Berkshire Hathaway and Himalaya Capital suggests its AI infrastructure and Waymo assets are undervalued. For a lower-risk "picks and shovels" play on the semiconductor boom, ASML remains the essential, sole provider of advanced chip-making machinery with high-margin service contracts. Investors seeking stability should look at the credit rating oligopoly of Moody’s (MCO) and S&P Global (SPGI), which offer high-margin financial moats insulated from AI disruption. While Microsoft (MSFT) remains a popular AI play, be cautious of potential "moat erosion" as AI tools may lower switching costs for enterprise software competitors. In the payments sector, Mastercard (MA) is currently favored over Visa (V) by some specialists due to its superior diversification into high-value security and data services.

Alphabet (GOOGL) remains a high-conviction "forever" holding as Waymo scales to 500,000 weekly rides and AI integrations drive search queries to all-time highs. Amazon (AMZN) is evolving into a hardware powerhouse with its Trainium chips and logistics moat, positioning the company for a massive free cash flow inflection exceeding $100 billion. Investors should view the current price disconnect in Uber (UBER) as a buying opportunity, as the market overestimates the threat of robo-taxis to its dominant, high-margin subscription network. Broadcom (AVGO) offers a diversified alternative to NVIDIA, capturing essential AI growth through custom silicon and networking hardware for major cloud providers. For emerging market exposure, MercadoLibre (MELI) provides a unique entry point following a recent 20% pullback, leveraging its private logistics and fintech dominance in South America.

Investors should consider increasing exposure to Alphabet (GOOGL) as top fund managers reverse their bearish stance, citing the massive success of Waymo and the company's "full-stack" AI advantage. While Microsoft (MSFT) faces potential AI disruption to its software moat, its current forward P/E in the low 20s offers a historically cheap entry point for contrarian buyers. Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) remains a high-conviction "buy" due to record foot traffic and the potential for massive profit expansion when beef prices eventually normalize. For long-term stability, focus on companies with "unassailable moats" like GE Aerospace (GE), Visa (V), and credit rating leaders S&P Global (SPGI) and Moody’s (MCO). Avoid speculative prediction markets like Polymarket or Kalshi, where 70% of users lose money, and instead prioritize productive assets or low-cost ETFs.

NVIDIA (NVDA) is currently highlighted as "terribly undervalued" and under-owned, trading at a low 20s forward P/E that represents a high-conviction entry point for the AI hardware leader. Alphabet (GOOGL) remains a core "Hold" as its massive Google Cloud backlog and AI-enhanced search growth justify its current 30+ forward P/E ratio. Investors should look at Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT) for potential multiple expansion, as both trade at attractive 20x forward earnings despite strong AI-driven advertising and cloud performance. Amazon (AMZN) is seeing a notable re-acceleration in AWS revenue, making it a primary beneficiary of the $800 billion total AI capital expenditure trend among tech giants. For a higher-risk contrarian play, Duolingo (DUOL) offers significant long-term upside at a $5 billion market cap if it successfully uses AI to pivot from a language app to a verbal communication platform.

Meta Platforms (META) presents a high-conviction "multiple expansion" opportunity, as its 19.6 forward P/E is currently cheaper than the S&P 500 despite 33% revenue growth. Investors should consider Microsoft (MSFT) at a 22 forward P/E, anticipating a valuation re-rating toward the 25–27 range as the market recognizes its enterprise AI distribution power. Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA) are attractive "quality compounders" currently trading at discounted 23-25 forward P/E ratios, with potential upside toward a 30 P/E as regulatory fears subside. Amazon (AMZN) remains a top fundamental growth play for 2024 and beyond, with price appreciation expected to follow its massive earnings expansion. Conversely, exercise extreme caution with GameStop (GME) due to significant risks of shareholder dilution and questionable acquisition strategies that may prioritize executive pay over per-share value.

Alphabet (GOOGL) is the top high-conviction pick following 22% revenue growth, with a potential price target of $400 by year-end as it successfully transitions to a high-margin subscription and AI-driven search model. Investors should view the recent 10% dip in Meta Platforms (META) as a high-quality entry point, as the market overreacted to increased infrastructure spending despite the company leading big tech with 33% revenue growth. Amazon (AMZN) remains a strong buy as AWS growth reaccelerates to 28% and its custom Trainium chips position the company as a top-three global semiconductor player. While Microsoft (MSFT) is a safe long-term hold, it currently lacks the explosive short-term catalysts found in its peers due to shrinking margins and increased competition in the cloud sector. For a broader play on the massive AI infrastructure build-out, Micron Technology (MU) is a primary beneficiary as big tech firms aggressively bid up prices for essential memory components.

Consider buying Spotify (SPOT) ahead of earnings, as its massive user base and high retention rates create an insurmountable moat against competitors. Amazon (AMZN) remains a high-conviction pick due to the rapid $15B revenue run rate of its AWS AI services and expected increases in infrastructure spending. For S&P Global (SPGI), look for a recovery opportunity if the Market Intelligence segment proves resilient against Claude and other AI disruption fears. Monitor Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META) for continued high growth in cloud and ad conversions, as big tech firms are expected to raise AI capital expenditure guidance this week. Conversely, treat Apple (AAPL) as a stable consumer staple rather than a growth leader, as it prioritizes profit margins over aggressive AI development.

Investors should prioritize high-conviction "Big Tech" leaders like Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN), as both companies are aggressively developing custom AI silicon to lower costs and reduce reliance on third-party hardware. Amazon (AMZN) remains a top growth pick with a long-term price target above $300, while Microsoft (MSFT) is currently viewed as a "fantastic buy" due to its recent dip into more attractive valuation territory. Meta Platforms (META) is a strong buy as it builds a unique AI moat by training autonomous agents on proprietary internal data. For those looking to "buy the dip," Netflix (NFLX) is expected to see a full recovery following its recent 13% post-earnings slide, and Duolingo (DUOL) appears to have found a stable price floor near $100. Conversely, investors should avoid chasing expensive valuations in Costco (COST) and remain cautious of niche software stocks that face higher displacement risks from AI compared to the resilient Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).

Meta (META) remains a high-conviction core holding for a 2026 horizon, with the company’s pivot into AI-powered hardware and superior ad-targeting efficiency positioning it to outperform. Netflix (NFLX) is a strong buy-on-weakness opportunity as it scales its advertising business to a projected $3 billion by 2026 and expands into live sports and gaming. Investors should avoid Adobe (ADBE) and Salesforce (CRM) for now, as these legacy software giants face intense pricing pressure from cheaper competitors and unproven AI adoption. Be extremely cautious of "AI rebranding" pumps in struggling micro-cap stocks like Allbirds (BIRD), which signal bubble-like behavior rather than long-term value. Maintain a long-term perspective through current market volatility, focusing on "Attention Aggregators" while ignoring short-term geopolitical noise.

Meta (META) remains a high-conviction "big bet" for 2026, with Deutsche Bank setting a bullish price target of $920 driven by AI-integrated hardware and seamless social commerce. Amazon (AMZN) is positioned to reach a $300 price target as it scales its satellite internet business via the Globalstar acquisition and gains a competitive edge with its high-performance Graviton chips. While NVIDIA (NVDA) maintains market dominance, investors should monitor rising competition from cloud providers and non-NVIDIA hardware used by firms like Anthropic. Netflix (NFLX) is a strong long-term buy-on-the-dip candidate as it successfully diversifies into gaming and maintains superior pricing power. Conversely, exercise caution with the broader software sector (IGV), as AI disruption poses a fundamental risk to traditional business models like Salesforce and Adobe.

Investors should prioritize Meta Platforms (META) as a high-conviction growth play, with a projected price target of $1,950–$2,000 by 2031 driven by its transition to the world’s leading digital advertiser. Amazon (AMZN) remains a premier long-term compounder, with a target of $600 by 2031 as its custom Trainium chips and AWS infrastructure begin to yield massive margins. For those seeking stability, Costco (COST) is a top defensive pick that rarely sees significant pullbacks and is currently accelerating warehouse expansions to meet high consumer demand. ASML (ASML) and Netflix (NFLX) continue to show strong momentum, with ASML maintaining a monopoly on essential AI hardware and Netflix successfully diversifying into the gaming sector. Use current market skepticism regarding high AI capital expenditure as a strategic entry point to accumulate these vertically integrated tech leaders at a discount.

Investors should continue to hold ASML as a "crown jewel" asset, as its monopoly-like technology and massive competitive moat justify maintaining positions despite recent price surges. While Big Tech leaders like Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Amazon (AMZN) are rallying on geopolitical relief, Microsoft (MSFT) has lagged behind, offering a potential "buy the dip" opportunity for those looking to add quality at a relative discount. Exercise extreme caution regarding a potential OpenAI IPO, as emerging leadership concerns and a fragile partnership with Microsoft create significant long-term governance risks. For those exposed to subscription services like Netflix (NFLX), monitor the European regulatory environment closely, as punitive court rulings on price increases could threaten international cash flows. Use periods of peak pessimism driven by temporary headlines—such as tariffs or regional conflicts—as strategic entry points to increase exposure to high-conviction names like Texas Roadhouse (TXRH).