Super Investors Keep Buying These Stocks
Super Investors Keep Buying These Stocks
Podcast26 min 59 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider buying shares in large-cap tech leaders Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN), which are viewed as undervalued with forward P/E ratios in the 20s despite their strong growth. A significant buying opportunity may exist in financial data firms Moody's (MCO) and S&P Global (SPGI), as their stocks have fallen

Detailed Analysis

Meta (META)

  • Prominent investor Bill Ackman made a significant new investment in Meta, making it his fifth-largest holding with an 11.37% weighting in his fund as of Q4 2025.
  • The podcast host is also very bullish on Meta, stating it is his third-largest holding and that he will continue to buy more if the price drops further.
  • The investment thesis is described as simple and powerful: Meta is a cheap stock, it's growing fast, and it has a very wide moat.
  • Valuation: The company is considered inexpensive, trading at a 22 forward P/E ratio. This includes the heavy spending on its Reality Labs division. If you only look at the core business (Family of Apps), the P/E ratio is an even lower 18.
  • Risk Factor: The main concern for investors is the high capital expenditure (CapEx) on projects like the Metaverse and AI.
    • The host argues this is not a true risk but a deliberate capital allocation decision by management. The spending is driven by opportunity and can be reversed at any time. It is not a sign of competitive pressure.

Takeaways

  • The current valuation is seen as attractive, especially given the company's growth rate and dominant market position.
  • The high spending on AI and Reality Labs is viewed by the host as a strategic investment for future growth, not a waste of money. Investors who share this long-term view may see the current price as an opportunity.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Bill Ackman sold a large portion of his Google stock to buy Amazon in Q4 2025, making it a new, significant position for his fund.
  • In contrast, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway sold 77.2% of its Amazon position in the same quarter.
  • The podcast host is very bullish on Amazon and sides with Bill Ackman, viewing the company as one of the best buys in big tech today.
  • Investment Thesis: Amazon is a blue-chip company with a wide moat, predictable growth, and a cash-generative core business that is trading at an artificially low valuation.
  • Valuation: Amazon trades at a 26 forward P/E ratio. This is considered low, especially when compared to slower-growing retailers like Walmart.
  • Risk Factor: Similar to Meta, the primary concern is high CapEx spending.
    • The host dismisses this concern, stating the spending is necessary to meet overwhelming customer demand for its cloud services (AWS). He compares it to a successful restaurant needing to open new locations to serve all its customers.

Takeaways

  • A stark difference of opinion exists between major investors, with Ackman buying and Berkshire selling.
  • The host believes the market is overly fearful of Amazon's spending, creating a valuation disconnect. For example, Amazon is growing 3-4 times faster than Walmart (WMT) but trades at nearly half the valuation (26 P/E for AMZN vs. 43 P/E for WMT).
  • Investors who believe in the long-term growth of cloud computing and e-commerce may find Amazon's current valuation compelling.

Google (GOOGL)

  • Bill Ackman significantly reduced his Google holding by 87% in Q4 2025.
  • Reasoning for the sale: The stock doubled in price as fears about ChatGPT and antitrust issues subsided. The valuation expanded from a P/E in the low 20s to nearly 30, so Ackman was taking profits.
  • Despite the large sale, Google remains one of Ackman's top four positions, making up over 10% of his portfolio. This indicates he still sees it as a great company, just not at a 30% portfolio weight.
  • The host believes Ackman may have sold a bit early, as Google's stock has performed better than Amazon's since the end of 2025 (-3.5% for Google vs. -10% for Amazon).

Takeaways

  • This was a strategic trim to lock in substantial gains after a massive run-up in the stock price, not a complete abandonment of the company.
  • The move highlights the importance of valuation. As a company's stock price and P/E ratio increase, even bullish investors may choose to reduce their position size.

Moody's (MCO) & S&P Global (SPGI)

  • These financial data and ratings companies have seen their stock prices fall significantly due to market fears about disruption from AI. S&P Global is down 19% from when super-investor Chris Hohn was buying in Q4 2025.
  • The podcast host is very bullish on both companies and sees the sell-off as a major buying opportunity. He plans to buy additional shares of both MCO and SPGI.
  • Moody's recently "crushed" its earnings report, and its CEO delivered a powerful defense of the company's moat against AI.
  • Moody's Moat vs. AI:
    • Proprietary Data: Much of their data is not public and is protected by decades of commercial agreements and IP rights.
    • Expertise: They have deep semantic, legal, and regulatory expertise that AI models lack.
    • Trust: They provide "decision-grade outputs" that are accurate, explainable, and defensible, which is something institutions require and current chatbots cannot provide.

Takeaways

  • The market's fear of AI may be creating an opportunity in high-quality data companies like Moody's and S&P Global.
  • The argument is that these companies provide a curated, trusted context layer on top of raw data that AI cannot replicate. Their value is in the governance, history, and proprietary nature of their information.
  • Investors who believe this moat is durable could see the recent price drops as an attractive entry point.

Other Notable Mentions

  • Microsoft (MSFT): Was the most frequently bought stock by super investors in Q4 2025. The price has since dropped 17%, meaning it can be purchased today at a significant discount to what those top investors were paying.

  • Intuit (INTU): The stock is down nearly 40% year-to-date. Super-investor Devkant Dasaria trimmed his position by 15% in Q4 2025, but that was at much higher prices. The host speculates that at the current valuation (a 15 forward P/E), Dasaria might be buying, not selling.

  • DoorDash (DASH): The company continues to post incredible growth, with revenue up 37% and orders up 32% year-over-year. The investment thesis is based on the powerful and enduring human desire for convenience.

  • Booking Holdings (BKNG): The stock dropped 7% after earnings, despite strong results (revenue up 16%). The drop was attributed to guidance for slightly slower "low double digit" revenue growth ahead. The host remains bullish and considers it a great company.

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Episode Description
00:00 Overview 02:00 Super Investor Buys 17:17 Moody's Earnings 22:40 DoorDash Earnings 23:55 Fail Of The Week: Sam & Dario
About The Joseph Carlson Show
The Joseph Carlson Show

The Joseph Carlson Show

The world of investing is no longer boring. We explore timeless wealth creation principles, current news and drama, as well as commentary and reaction from members of the community.