Maintain high conviction in ASML, which is currently trending toward a price target of $2,000 per share as it nears all-time highs. Alphabet (GOOGL) remains a primary recovery play and a top-tier holding at 15.5% of the portfolio, while Amazon (AMZN) continues to show strong momentum as a core digital platform leader. For non-tech diversification, aggressively build a position in Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) toward a 5% weighting, as the company is successfully gaining market share despite high input costs. Exercise extreme caution regarding SpaceX and Anthropic due to excessive revenue multiples and heightening regulatory risks in the private tech sector. Monitor Casey’s General Stores (CASY) for a valuation pullback before entering, while staying bullish on the continued upward momentum of Uber (UBER) and DoorDash (DASH).

Amazon (AMZN)

• Performance: The stock saw a significant daily move, up 3.27% to $246 per share.
• Portfolio Status: It remains a top holding for Carlson, representing approximately 12% of his total portfolio.
• Context: The stock is benefiting from a broader market rally driven by optimism regarding a potential peace framework with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Takeaways

• Core Holding Strength: Amazon continues to be a primary driver of portfolio performance, showing strong momentum alongside other digital platforms.
• Valuation Benchmark: Elon Musk’s claim that SpaceX will reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 would make it larger than Amazon is today, highlighting the extreme growth expectations currently priced into speculative tech.

ASML (ASML)

• Performance: The stock is up 1.76%, trading near $1,900 per share.
• Price Target: Carlson believes the stock is heading to $2,000.
• Portfolio Status: It is currently the largest position in his "Passive Income" portfolio (valued slightly higher than MasterCard) and the third-largest overall.
• Investment Strategy: Carlson "loaded up" on shares below $700 and has held them without selling, allowing organic growth to drive the position's value.

Takeaways

• High Conviction: The "future remains bright" for the semiconductor equipment leader, which has gained over $100,000 in profit on a $62,000 cost basis in this specific portfolio.
• Momentum: The stock is pushing toward all-time highs, driven by its essential role in the AI and chip-making ecosystem.

SpaceX (Private/IPO Mention)

• Valuation: The company is trading at a $2.29 trillion market cap with a share price of $178.
• Financials: It is currently not profitable and generates roughly $30–$40 billion in revenue.
• Multiples: The stock is trading at approximately 110x price-to-sales (revenue).
• Revenue Projections: Elon Musk publicly stated a goal of $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, which would require a 54x increase (roughly 120% annual growth for five years).

Takeaways

• Extreme Risk/Exuberance: Analyst Jim Chanos warns that buying equities at over 100x revenue historically does not result in positive returns.
• Business Model Shift: There is concern that SpaceX is pivoting toward a "NeoCloud" model (leasing GPU capacity), which is a lower-margin, commodity-like business compared to high-tech model development.
• The "Elon Premium": Much of the valuation relies on "narrative" and "hype" rather than current fundamental operations.

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)

• Investment Thesis: Carlson is actively increasing his position, aiming for a 5% weighting in his portfolio.
• Operational Strength: The company has remained profitable despite record-high beef prices.
• Market Share: It has successfully gained market share from competitors who cannot match its price points during inflationary periods.

Takeaways

• Defensive Growth: This is a non-tech alternative that has "crushed" the market since the COVID-19 era.
• Resilience: The ability to thrive during high input costs (beef) signals a strong, well-managed business model.

Casey’s General Stores (CASY)

• Business Model: A Midwest-based convenience store chain that functions as a high-margin restaurant (the 5th largest pizza seller in the U.S.).
• Performance: The stock has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ).
• Growth Strategy: They are consolidating the fragmented small-town convenience store market and expanding into new food categories like chicken.

Takeaways

• Valuation Warning: Despite the strong business model, Carlson is holding off on buying because the valuation multiple has "raced up" too high. It is a "watch list" item rather than an immediate buy.

Alphabet (GOOG / GOOGL)

• Performance: Up 3.15% to $369, recovering from a recent dip into the $350s.
• Portfolio Status: Combined across his funds, Google is Carlson's largest overall position at 15.5% of his total holdings.

Takeaways

• Recovery Play: The stock is showing signs of reversing a recent downtrend, supported by the broader tech rally.

Other Notable Mentions

Uber (UBER) & DoorDash (DASH)

• Sentiment: Bullish. Uber rose 6.52% and DoorDash rose 11.63%. Carlson believes the strong upward momentum for these "phenomenal" companies will continue.

Anthropic (Private)

• Risk Factor: The U.S. government recently shut down their flagship models (Fable 5 and Mythos 5) due to national security concerns and "jailbreak" vulnerabilities.
• Insight: This highlights the regulatory risks facing "Frontier" AI companies and the potential for self-inflicted wounds caused by safety-first rhetoric.

Macro Themes: Iran Peace Deal & Inflation

• Insight: A potential framework for peace with Iran is the primary catalyst for the current market rally.
• Economic Impact: If the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully, oil prices and inflation are expected to drop, which is "unmistakably positive" for global equities and consumer-facing tech stocks.