I Ranked The Best And Worst Stocks Of 2025
I Ranked The Best And Worst Stocks Of 2025
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Top-tier growth opportunities include ASML (ASML), an essential supplier for the AI boom, and Google (GOOGL), which is firing on all cylinders with its AI, Cloud, and YouTube divisions. Consider the successful turnaround story of General Electric (GE), now a high-quality industrial leader focused on its dominant jet engine business. The recent pullback in Netflix (NFLX) due to acquisition fears may present a contrarian buying opportunity for long-term investors. A key theme for 2026 is Cybersecurity meets AI, making a leader like CrowdStrike (CRWD) an attractive buy on any significant dip. Finally, consider large banks like JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) as they increasingly use technology to expand margins and may see their valuations rise.

Detailed Analysis

Google (GOOGL)

  • The host ranked Google as "goaded", his highest tier, calling its 2025 performance "incredible."
  • The stock was up 64.06% year-to-date (YTD) in 2025, and likely around 66% when including dividends.
  • The host personally made over $90,000 in gains on the stock, having bought in around the $160-$170 price range.
  • Key performance drivers included:
    • Successfully answering the ChatGPT threat with its own AI, Gemini.
    • Very fast growth in its cloud division.
    • YouTube continuing to gain television market share.
    • Waymo (self-driving) continuing to progress where others have not.
    • A favorable legal ruling that meant it did not have to sell its Chrome browser.
  • The host predicts another good performance in 2026, expecting solid earnings growth and continued positive developments from YouTube and Waymo.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The host is extremely bullish on Google, viewing it as a top-tier investment that gives investors "everything that you want in a stock."
  • Multiple Growth Drivers: The company isn't just a one-trick pony; its strength comes from multiple successful business segments including Search, AI, Cloud, YouTube, and Waymo.
  • Long-Term Hold: The commentary suggests Google is a strong candidate for a long-term holding, with continued growth expected in the coming year.

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • The host placed Microsoft in the "locked-in" category, signifying a strong and reliable performance.
  • The stock was up 16% YTD in 2025, with the share price at $485.
  • The company has successfully shifted its business model from a simple software company to an "AI toolbox," with its Azure cloud platform at the core.
  • This performance was largely driven by growth in Microsoft's cloud and Azure divisions.
  • The host would not be surprised to see Microsoft gain another 10%+ in 2026.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: Microsoft is viewed as a solid, high-quality investment.
  • AI & Cloud Play: The primary investment thesis is Microsoft's central role in the AI revolution, providing the essential tools and cloud infrastructure for other companies.
  • Stable Growth: While not as explosive as Google in 2025, it's seen as a reliable grower with a strong outlook for continued gains.

Uber (UBER)

  • Uber was ranked in the "locked-in" category for its great year.
  • The stock recently pulled back about 20% from its high of $100 to $81 per share, but the host sees this as acceptable.
  • Performance drivers in 2025 included:
    • Expansion of operating margins and continued free cash flow growth.
    • Organic revenue growth from its expanding network.
    • Starting the year at a low valuation due to the market's fear of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs).
  • The host notes that prominent investor Bill Ackman is bullish on Uber, believing the market is overestimating the threat of AVs to Uber's business.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: The underlying business is performing very well, driving strong financial results.
  • Potential Value Opportunity: The "overhang of the threat of AVs" may be keeping the stock's valuation artificially low, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors who share Bill Ackman's view.

ASML (ASML)

  • The host ranked ASML as "goaded," his highest tier, noting an "incredible year for the ASML shareholder."
  • The stock was up 52% YTD in the US market. The host personally bought the stock in 2025 and is already up 62% ($30,000).
  • Key performance drivers:
    • The massive surge in Artificial Intelligence created huge demand for its lithography machines.
    • Even if the number of machines sold is flat, the price per unit is increasing dramatically.
    • A growing "install-based management" business, which acts like a recurring subscription revenue for servicing the machines they've sold.

Takeaways

  • Extremely Bullish Sentiment: ASML is presented as a top-tier company with an incredibly strong market position.
  • Picks and Shovels of AI: ASML is a "picks and shovels" play on the AI boom, providing the essential, hard-to-replicate machinery needed to produce advanced chips.
  • Strong Moat: The business has extremely high barriers to entry and a sticky, recurring revenue component from servicing its installed base, making it a durable long-term investment.

Salesforce (CRM)

  • Salesforce was placed in the "cooked" category for its terrible year.
  • The stock was down 19% YTD in 2025, a year when the broader market was up significantly.
  • The host, a shareholder, is currently almost flat on his position and plans to continue holding.
  • The main reason for the poor performance was that revenue growth decelerated sharply, from a 5-year average of 15% to just 8% in the past year.
  • When a company's growth slows, its valuation multiple tends to fall, which is what happened to Salesforce.

Takeaways

  • Bearish on Performance, Cautious on Future: The stock was a major underperformer in 2025.
  • Growth is Key: This is a clear example of how a slowdown in revenue growth can severely impact the stock price of a company that was previously valued for high growth.
  • Potential Turnaround?: The host is holding on in the hope that software companies will do better in 2026, but it remains a "wait and see" situation.

Meta (META)

  • The host categorized Meta as "chill," meaning its performance was not shocking in either direction.
  • The stock was up 9.3% YTD, performing decently but not exceptionally.
  • The reason for the muted performance is that Mark Zuckerberg is focusing on heavy capital expenditures (CapEx) for AI rather than maximizing immediate profits, which is what many investors want to see.

Takeaways

  • Neutral Sentiment: Meta is a solid company, but its stock is in a holding pattern.
  • Long-Term Vision vs. Short-Term Profits: Investors should be aware that management's focus on long-term AI investment is currently taking priority over short-term profit maximization, which may cap the stock's upside for now.

Chipotle (CMG)

  • Chipotle was placed in the "cooked" category, having been "really crushed this year."
  • The stock was down a staggering 38% YTD.
  • The poor performance is attributed to widespread customer complaints about inconsistent quality, small portions, and high prices.
  • The host believes the company could solve many of its problems by implementing a simple solution: using food scales to ensure portion consistency and rebuild customer trust.

Takeaways

  • Bearish Sentiment: The stock's collapse is directly tied to operational failures and a decline in customer satisfaction.
  • Execution Risk: This is a case where a strong brand is being damaged by poor in-store execution. Until these fundamental operational issues are addressed, the stock may continue to struggle.

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)

  • The host ranked Texas Roadhouse in the "chill" category.
  • The stock was down 7% YTD, which the host considers to be holding up well compared to others in the restaurant industry like Chipotle.
  • He considers it an "excellent company" and continues to hold a position after taking significant profits earlier in the year.

Takeaways

  • Relatively Bullish: Despite the slight downturn in 2025, it's viewed as a high-quality company that is navigating a tough environment for restaurants better than its peers.
  • Sector Leader: For investors looking for exposure to the restaurant sector, TXRH appears to be a more resilient option than struggling names like CMG.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Amazon was described as having a "chill" or "mediocre" year in 2025.
  • The stock was up only 5% YTD.
  • The host highlighted that an investor's personal return can be much better by buying during dips. He is personally up 10.3% on his shares because he bought during a "tariff sell-off."
  • He believes Amazon could have a great 2026, potentially rising 10-30%, if key catalysts materialize:
    • Upward movement in operating margins.
    • Capital expenditures (CapEx) leveling off.
    • Acceleration in AWS (Amazon Web Services) growth.

Takeaways

  • Neutral Short-Term, Bullish Long-Term: The stock's 2025 performance was lackluster, but the host sees significant potential for 2026.
  • Key Metrics to Watch: Investors should monitor operating margins, CapEx trends, and AWS growth rates as indicators for a potential breakout in the stock.
  • Buy the Dips: The host's experience shows that accumulating shares of quality companies during periods of market fear can lead to outsized returns.

Apple (AAPL)

  • Apple was placed in the "locked-in" category for its great performance.
  • The stock was up 12% YTD, outperforming the host's expectations after he had previously sold it due to valuation concerns.
  • The key to its success is its incredibly strong moat. The iPhone ecosystem is so powerful that customers are unlikely to switch, and they are spending more and more time on their devices, which benefits Apple.

Takeaways

  • Bullish on Moat: Apple's strength lies in its brand and ecosystem, which have proven more durable than concerns over valuation or slowing growth might suggest.
  • Don't Bet Against the Brand: The stock continues to defy skeptics, proving the power of its dominant market position.

Palantir (PLTR)

  • The host ranked Palantir as "goaded" for its "insane year."
  • The stock was up an incredible 148% YTD in 2025.
  • This performance is driven by "premium revenue growth" of 47%, which has allowed the stock to maintain a very high valuation (a price-to-sales ratio over 100).
  • Major Risk: The host is very concerned about the valuation, stating that if revenue growth slows, "the multiple will come down dramatically." He calls investing in Palantir in 2026 a "dangerous game."

Takeaways

  • High Risk, High Reward: Palantir has delivered explosive returns, but it comes with extreme valuation risk.
  • Growth-Dependent: The entire investment thesis rests on the company's ability to maintain its extremely high rate of revenue growth. Any sign of a slowdown could cause the stock to fall sharply. This is a speculative investment.

FICO (FICO)

  • FICO was categorized as "falling off" based on its 2025 performance.
  • The stock was down 11% YTD.
  • However, the host remains bullish on the company for 2026.
  • The bullish thesis is based on its powerful moat: the FICO score is so "deeply embedded" in the US credit and mortgage system that it's almost impossible to replace, giving it immense and durable pricing power.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Long-Term: Despite a down year, the company's fundamental business position is exceptionally strong.
  • Moat Investing: FICO is a prime example of a company with a deep competitive moat that makes it a resilient long-term investment, even if it experiences short-term stock price volatility.

Duolingo (DUOL)

  • Duolingo was ranked as "cooked" and was the host's "biggest loser of the year."
  • The stock experienced a massive valuation collapse, falling from a high of $540 to around $180.
  • The sell-off was triggered when management announced on an earnings call that they would focus more on product improvement rather than on "bookings" (converting free users to paid users).
  • Wall Street interpreted this as a signal of slowing revenue growth and sold the stock heavily.
  • Despite the stock's collapse, the host notes that the company's underlying fundamental metrics (user growth, etc.) look "very strong" and "beautiful."

Takeaways

  • High Risk / Speculative: This is a growth stock that was severely punished for prioritizing long-term product strategy over short-term monetization.
  • Disconnect Between Stock and Fundamentals: There appears to be a disconnect between the stock's performance and the company's operational metrics. For contrarian investors, this could signal an opportunity, but the host remains cautious about adding more capital.

Tesla (TSLA)

  • Tesla was placed in the "locked-in" category for its stock performance.
  • The stock was up 23% YTD in 2025, reaching a market cap of $1.5 trillion.
  • Major Concern: The host has a problem with the investment because the stock price is rising while the company's fundamentals (revenue, vehicle deliveries) are "basically flat."
  • The stock's valuation appears to be heavily reliant on future stories that are not yet reality, such as the Robotaxi network and a humanoid robot army.
  • The host believes Amazon is a better risk-adjusted investment for robotics exposure.

Takeaways

  • Caution Warranted: The stock's high valuation seems disconnected from its current financial performance.
  • Priced for Perfection: Investors are paying a price that assumes massive success from future, speculative projects. If these projects are delayed or fail to meet lofty expectations, the stock could be at risk.

General Electric (GE)

  • GE was ranked as "goaded" for its "incredibly strong" performance.
  • The stock was up 85% YTD and an incredible 484% over the past five years.
  • The success is the result of a major business transformation where GE spun off its lower-quality businesses.
  • It is now left with a technologically advanced, dominant business: making jet engines. This business has very high barriers to entry and a lucrative, recurring maintenance revenue stream.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Turnaround Story: GE has successfully transformed itself into a high-quality industrial powerhouse.
  • Strong Moat: The jet engine business is difficult to compete with and provides a long tail of service revenue, similar to the business model of ASML. The host suggests it is "worth looking at."

PayPal (PYPL)

  • PayPal was placed in the "cooked" category, with the stock being "crushed this year."
  • The stock was down 31% YTD and 74% over the past five years, described as a "perpetual underperformer."
  • The core problem lies in its weak Key Performance Indicators (KPIs):
    • The number of active accounts is flat.
    • The transactions per account are trending downwards.
  • The host is not bullish and would prefer to own other payment companies like MasterCard (MA), Visa (V), or Square (SQ).

Takeaways

  • Bearish Sentiment: The underlying business metrics are weak and heading in the wrong direction.
  • Avoid for Now: Until the company can show a reversal in user growth and engagement trends, the stock is likely to continue underperforming. There are better opportunities in the payments sector.

Netflix (NFLX)

  • Netflix was categorized as "chill" after a recent pullback.
  • The stock is up 5-6% YTD, but it gave up significant gains after news broke that it was bidding for Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) assets.
  • Investors sold off the stock fearing the complexity of the deal and that the stock would be "dead money" during the process.
  • The host, however, is bullish on the potential acquisition, seeing it as a way to acquire a "well of IP" to create new content. He has "doubled down" on his position.

Takeaways

  • Short-Term Uncertainty, Long-Term Potential: The potential WBD acquisition is creating an overhang on the stock.
  • Contrarian Opportunity: For investors who believe the acquisition will be a long-term positive, the current uncertainty may present a buying opportunity while other investors are on the sidelines.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA was placed in the "locked-in" category for its very good year.
  • The stock was up 35-36% YTD.
  • The performance is driven by its central role in the AI boom and strong, real revenue growth.
  • A potential risk noted by the host is the appearance of "circular financing," where NVIDIA invests in companies that in turn buy NVIDIA's products.
  • The host believes that as long as real revenue growth continues, the company can support its valuation and the stock can keep growing 10-30% per year.

Takeaways

  • Bullish Sentiment: NVIDIA remains a core holding for exposure to the AI theme.
  • Growth is Real: Despite some complex deal-making, the underlying revenue growth is strong and justifies the performance.
  • Monitor Revenue: The key to the investment thesis is continued rapid growth. Investors should watch revenue trends closely.

Investment Theme: Cybersecurity & AI

  • This theme was highlighted by guest predictor Dan Ives, who believes 2026 will be the year for "cybersecurity meets AI."
  • As companies move more workloads to the cloud for AI, the need for advanced cybersecurity will be front and center.
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) was named as a key company at this intersection, with one of the "best AI footprints" in the space.
  • The host agrees with the thesis but has been wary of CRWD's high valuation, suggesting it is a stock that is "worth looking at if it does have a dip."

Takeaways

  • Emerging Theme: The convergence of AI and cybersecurity is a major investment theme for 2026.
  • Key Stock to Watch: CrowdStrike (CRWD) is a pure-play leader in this space.
  • Valuation is a Concern: While the company is high-quality, its stock has historically traded at a premium. A market pullback could provide a more attractive entry point.

Investment Theme: Banks as Tech Companies

  • This theme was presented by guest predictor Tom Lee, who argues that large banks could be the "next Mag 7."
  • His thesis is that a more "dovish Fed" will boost the economy, and large banks like JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are becoming more like tech companies.
  • They are using AI and blockchain to reduce costs and are generating more revenue from high-margin digital services.
  • This could lead to margin expansion and their stocks trading at higher, tech-like valuations.
  • The host agrees with this differentiated argument, noting there is likely "more room to run" for these stocks.

Takeaways

  • Contrarian Idea: This is a non-obvious investment thesis that looks beyond traditional banking.
  • Potential Re-rating: If the market begins to view large banks more like technology companies, their valuation multiples could expand significantly.
  • Key Stocks to Watch: JPMorgan (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are the prime examples of this theme.
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Episode Description
00:00 Overview 02:00 Best & Worst Stocks Of 2025 29:50 2026 Predictions 37:20 Fail Of The Week: The Nike Exploiter
About The Joseph Carlson Show
The Joseph Carlson Show

The Joseph Carlson Show

The world of investing is no longer boring. We explore timeless wealth creation principles, current news and drama, as well as commentary and reaction from members of the community.