I’m Buying More Today
I’m Buying More Today
Podcast27 min 5 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Capitalize on the recent 8% post-earnings sell-off in Meta Platforms (META) by buying the dip, as the miss was driven by temporary one-time legal and restructuring expenses rather than slowing core growth. Ride the momentum in Microsoft (MSFT) after its strong 15.5% surge past $450, which proves that heavy AI infrastructure spending is successfully driving enterprise demand. Accumulate shares of Amazon (AMZN) to capitalize on AWS cloud revenue scaling to $42 billion alongside expanding profit margins and multi-year order visibility. Hold or build positions in Alphabet (GOOGL), as its foundational AI infrastructure investments mirror the successful playbook that previously drove its stock up over 100%. View the recent 6.5% pullback in Apple (AAPL) as a normal supply chain fluctuation rather than a threat to its long-term investment thesis.

Detailed Analysis

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Reported strong earnings, beating EPS estimates by 13% and topping revenue expectations.
  • Stock surged 15.5% in a single day, pushing back above $450 and erasing its year-to-date losses.
  • Proved that heavy artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure (CapEx) is yielding positive business results, driving demand across product bundles and Fortune 500 users.
  • Combined portfolio position held by the podcaster is approximately $90,000 with over $40,000 in gains.

Takeaways

  • Market perception can shift overnight from skepticism over high CapEx spending to bullish realization when earnings prove strong monetization.
  • High CapEx by mega-cap technology companies can act as a major catalyst rather than a risk when paired with clear enterprise demand.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Experienced a strong post-earnings rally, jumping from the $230s to $257 (surging 4% on the day of earnings and another 9% to 10% following/after-hours).
  • AWS (Amazon Web Services) grew by 37% to $42 billion in a single quarter while simultaneously increasing profit margins.
  • Signal strong forward demand, with order fulfillment visibility extending two years out into 2028.
  • Represents a large $170,000 position in the podcaster's portfolio.

Takeaways

  • Cloud computing divisions within major tech giants can scale massive revenue while expanding profit margins, defying bear arguments about unprofitable AI and infrastructure spending.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Sold down 8% following an earnings report where EPS missed expectations by 14%, largely driven by one-time non-recurring expenses including a $2.4 billion legal proceeding payout and $1.18 billion in severance expenses related to headcount reductions.
  • Core revenue grew 28% year-over-year to $60.8 billion, with daily active users reaching an all-time high of over 3 billion.
  • The podcaster views the sell-off as a temporary market misunderstanding (similar to past skepticism faced by Google, Microsoft, and Amazon) and recently added an additional $4,000 to their position.

Takeaways

  • One-time financial hits like legal settlements and restructuring costs can distort EPS figures, masking underlying fundamental growth in core revenue and user engagement.
  • Patient investors can treat market overreactions to temporary earnings misses as potential buying opportunities.

Alphabet / Google (GOOGL)

  • Categorized alongside Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta as a major "big cap expender" driving the foundational AI infrastructure and data center wave.
  • Serves as a prime historical example where the market initially punished the stock over high CapEx spending, only to reverse course as earnings reports continuously demonstrated strong ROI and value creation, driving the stock up over 100% from a 15 P/E to a 25 P/E.
  • Forms the podcaster's single largest portfolio holding, valued around $200,000 with $110,000 in gains across accounts.

Takeaways

  • Heavy infrastructure spending by established tech monopolies can eventually be rewarded by the market once revenue realization becomes undeniable.

Apple (AAPL)

  • Reported a minor beat on earnings, but the stock fell 6.5% due to investor concerns regarding soft guidance and supply chain issues.
  • Unlike Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, Apple has not engaged in massive AI data center CapEx spending.
  • The podcaster views the issues as run-of-the-mill, sees no intrinsic concerns, and notes the company's report was ultimately fine.

Takeaways

  • Standard supply chain fluctuations and soft guidance can cause short-term pullbacks in mega-cap tech stocks without altering their long-term investment thesis.
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Episode Description
Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have followed a pattern of their CAPEX having initial skepticism eventually followed by acceptance. This will happen with Meta as well. In each case there were 'reasons' that the stock deserved to be down. With Google it was that ChatGPT would disrupt search, Microsoft it was Claude would disrupt the software bundle and the backlog was too concentrated, Amazon it was large CAPEX spend with no flagship model. With Meta it's that they have no public cloud business. Like all the others, investors will eventually be convinced with Meta as well.
About The Joseph Carlson Show
The Joseph Carlson Show

The Joseph Carlson Show

The world of investing is no longer boring. We explore timeless wealth creation principles, current news and drama, as well as commentary and reaction from members of the community.