I Just Bought $8,000 Of These Two Stocks
I Just Bought $8,000 Of These Two Stocks
Podcast29 min 34 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Consider buying Google (GOOGL) as a core long-term holding, as its fundamental strength in Search, Cloud, Waymo, and YouTube justifies investing even at all-time highs. Another high-conviction opportunity is Amazon (AMZN), which can be bought on weakness due to its accelerating AWS profit engine and future logistics-as-a-service potential. For existing Salesforce (CRM) investors, holding the stock is advised as the company aims to re-accelerate growth and triple free cash flow by 2025. If CRM executes its strategy, the stock has a potential price target in the $300-$330 range. While Netflix (NFLX) remains a solid hold, be aware that YouTube is currently gaining streaming market share at a faster pace.

Detailed Analysis

Google (GOOGL)

  • The host just purchased $5,000 worth of Google stock, making it his largest holding at a combined $150,000 across two portfolios.
  • The purchase was made even though the stock is at an all-time high. The host argues that investors should not be held back by "anchoring bias" (the idea that a stock was cheaper in the past) because the company's fundamentals have significantly improved.
  • The host believes Google has become more "fundamentally strong" over the past six months than any other company in his portfolio due to multiple positive developments.
  • Bullish Catalysts Mentioned:
    • Search Dominance: Google Search revenue continues to grow at 10-12% quarterly, and the volume of users and their engagement is also increasing.
    • Legal Wins: A major threat was removed when a judge did not force Google to sell off its Chrome browser, which is a critical asset with billions of users.
    • Cloud Acceleration: Google Cloud is not only growing but accelerating its growth rate. It's successfully attracting more "unicorn" (billion-dollar private companies) clients by integrating its powerful AI models like Gemini.
    • Waymo's Success: The autonomous vehicle division, Waymo, is rapidly expanding its ride-sharing service, announcing plans for London in 2026 and partnering with DoorDash for food delivery. It has a strong safety record and is seen as a future source of massive value.
    • YouTube's Growth: According to Nielsen ratings, YouTube is the only major streaming service that is consistently gaining market share and increasing its lead over competitors like Netflix.
    • Future Tech: CEO Sundar Pichai is "very, very bullish and confident" that Google will have commercially available, at-scale quantum computers within the next 10 years. The host sees this as a massive, underappreciated long-term catalyst.
    • AI Leadership: The CEO expressed excitement, not fear, when ChatGPT launched, viewing it as an opportunity for Google to leverage its deep, long-term investments in AI. Gemini 3.0 is expected to be released this year.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Extremely Bullish. The host sees "very low downside" and believes the company is a more certain bet now than it was six months ago, justifying buying at an all-time high.
  • Strategy: This is presented as a long-term core holding. The host is adding to his position based on the belief that the company's fundamental strengths and multiple growth drivers (Search, Cloud, Waymo, YouTube, AI, Quantum) are not yet fully appreciated.
  • For Investors: The analysis suggests that focusing on the company's improving fundamentals and future growth prospects is more important than its past stock price. The combination of established, dominant businesses and high-potential future ventures makes it a compelling investment case.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • The host purchased $3,000 more of Amazon stock, adding to a position worth over $131,000.
  • The purchase was made while the stock was in a "little bit of a dip," down about 8% over the past month.
  • The host believes there are significant bullish catalysts that will play out over the next three years.
  • Bullish Catalysts Mentioned:
    • AWS Profit Engine: The cloud computing division, AWS, is described as a "compounding machine" that predictably grows its profit. The host cites a report suggesting AWS growth is set to accelerate, which would be a major positive for the stock.
    • E-commerce & Ads: Amazon continues its dominant lead in U.S. e-commerce, which is crucial because it directly fuels its high-margin advertising business.
    • Revenue Quality: The company's revenue mix is improving as higher-quality services revenue makes up a greater percentage of the total.
    • Future Automation Play: A key future catalyst that the host believes is not yet priced into the stock is Amazon's leadership in logistics, robotics, and automation. The thesis is that Amazon will perfect this technology internally and then license it to other companies, creating a new business line similar to how AWS was created.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Very Bullish. The host considers Amazon a "very easy company to own long term" due to its many growth paths and dominant industry positions.
  • Strategy: The purchase during a dip indicates a "buy on weakness" strategy for a long-term holding. The investment thesis is based on both the strength of current businesses (AWS, E-commerce) and the massive optionality of future ventures (Logistics-as-a-Service).
  • For Investors: Amazon is presented as a multi-faceted growth company. Investors should look beyond the core retail business to the highly profitable AWS and the potential for new, large-scale revenue streams from its operational and technological expertise in logistics and automation.

Salesforce (CRM)

  • The host did not buy more Salesforce but discussed it as a key holding that has been his "worst performer." He is still holding the stock.
  • The company's recent Dreamforce conference outlined an ambitious future plan that has made the host optimistic.
  • Key Projections & Plans:
    • Growth Re-acceleration: Management is confident they can re-accelerate organic revenue growth back to 10% or more.
    • Profitability Focus: Operating margins are projected to have doubled from 17% to 34% between 2021 and 2025.
    • Free Cash Flow Growth: The company aims to triple its free cash flow to $14 billion by 2025.
    • Shareholder Returns: A plan is in place to return 99% of free cash flow to shareholders, primarily through stock buybacks. They expect a 50% increase in share repurchases over the next year.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Cautiously Bullish. While acknowledging its poor performance, the host believes the company is moving in the right direction. He sees "far more upside than downside" from the current valuation.
  • Price Target: The host mentioned that if the company executes its strategy, he could see the stock going back up to above $300 per share, into the $330 range.
  • Strategy: This is a "hold and watch" situation. The key for investors is to monitor whether Salesforce can deliver on its ambitious promises for growth acceleration and free cash flow generation in the coming quarters. If they execute, the stock could be significantly re-valued by the market.

Netflix (NFLX)

  • Netflix is the host's top position in one of his portfolios, primarily due to $82,000 in gains.
  • He has not sold any shares ("not taken any gains off the table") because he believes the company has a "bright future."
  • In a direct comparison using Nielsen streaming data, it was noted that while Netflix is successfully holding its market share, YouTube is actively gaining market share and growing its lead.

Takeaways

  • Sentiment: Bullish. The host is holding it as a long-term winner.
  • For Investors: While Netflix remains a strong player in streaming, the mention of YouTube's growing lead is a key piece of competitive context. It highlights that while Netflix is a dominant force, the streaming landscape is still dynamic, and other platforms are also growing stronger.
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Episode Description
00:00 Overview 02:00 New Buys Today 14:30 Salesforce Dreamforce 16:50 Sundar Pichai Interview 27:30 Fail Of The Week (Grant Cardon)
About The Joseph Carlson Show
The Joseph Carlson Show

The Joseph Carlson Show

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