How I’m Investing With $1.5 Million Stock Portfolio
How I’m Investing With $1.5 Million Stock Portfolio
Podcast35 min 47 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Consider S&P Global (SPGI), which the host calls a buy at about 21× forward earnings, and Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), viewed as a buy after a 21% monthly decline despite growing sales; beef-cost pressure remains a risk.
  • Netflix (NFLX) is presented as undervalued at about 22× earnings, with 16% revenue growth and 325 million subscribers supporting the case, though competition for viewers is a risk.
  • Uber (UBER) looks undervalued at $68 and roughly 17× forward earnings, but robotaxi competition could keep shares depressed; the host warns a rebound may take time.
Detailed Analysis

Alphabet (Google; GOOGL)

  • The host says Google has lagged in the AI model race after competitors released newer models, and worries that AI agents could put some pressure on Search.
  • He also points to continued business growth: Search revenue was up 17%, YouTube advertising revenue about 12%, and Google Cloud revenue 57% year over year. He says YouTube subscriptions are growing around 17% and the Cloud backlog is above $500 billion.
  • Google trades at about 25 times forward earnings. The host says a reported expected EPS decline next year reflects large equity-sale gains in the comparison period; he estimates organic EPS growth of 5–6% instead.
  • He is hesitant to sell, citing Google’s ability to catch up in AI and the company’s continued growth. He says he would consider trimming if the stock reached a 30 P/E.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view is hold, balancing AI competition and potential Search disruption against growth across Search, YouTube, and Cloud.
  • The key risks raised are falling behind in AI and changes in how people access information and services through agents.

Meta Platforms (META)

  • Meta’s stock had risen sharply, adding about $50,000 to the host’s position over roughly 35 days, before pulling back.
  • The host describes Meta as undervalued at about 23 times forward earnings, citing fast revenue growth and its AI product, Muse.
  • Meta is moving into enterprise AI. The host views its planned business and developer offerings—including agents, APIs, and coding tools—as a potential new revenue stream.
  • Meta’s hiring of MongoDB’s CEO was presented as part of this enterprise push. The host says the market’s negative reaction to Meta that day was misguided, while noting the shares fell about 4%.

Takeaways

  • The host is holding and sees enterprise AI as a possible growth opportunity, but says much of Meta’s recent share-price recovery has already occurred.
  • The opportunity depends on Meta turning its AI tools and business relationships into meaningful enterprise revenue.

MongoDB (MDB)

  • Meta hired MongoDB’s active CEO shortly before MongoDB’s investor day. The host says the departure was abrupt and that MongoDB shares fell sharply; the transcript cites a decline of about 17% and also describes it as roughly 25%.
  • The host characterizes the CEO loss as bad news for MongoDB shareholders, without discussing the company’s valuation or a potential recovery.

Takeaways

  • The discussion highlights leadership uncertainty as a near-term concern, but provides no specific investment recommendation or view on MongoDB’s longer-term prospects.

Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V)

  • The host favors Mastercard and says Visa is similarly attractive; he says an investor could choose either or hold both.
  • He describes Mastercard as having a reasonable valuation given profit margins above 50% and continued growth across regions. Revenue growth cited includes 14% in Europe, 20% in Latin America and the Caribbean, and about 7–7.5% in Asia Pacific and Canada.
  • He believes payment networks could become more valuable as agentic commerce develops, rather than being displaced by it.

Takeaways

  • The host is holding Mastercard and sees Visa as a comparable alternative.
  • The discussion’s positive case rests on continued international growth and the networks’ potential role in AI-driven commerce.

Amazon (AMZN)

  • Amazon is a 12% portfolio position in the episode. The host notes it underperformed the S&P 500 over the prior five years—up about 50% versus roughly 70%—but says its 10-year return was about 495%, around twice the index’s gain.
  • He views Amazon as a diversified company with a strong logistics network and says concerns that shopping agents will redirect customers away from Amazon may be overstated.
  • He expects Amazon and other large platforms to develop their own shopping agents. Amazon trades at about 26 times forward earnings.

Takeaways

  • The host remains positive and sees Amazon as positioned to compete in agentic commerce, while acknowledging the possibility that agents could reduce Amazon’s control over customer shopping.
  • His case emphasizes the company’s logistics, customer experience, and ability to build its own AI tools.

ASML (ASML)

  • The host describes ASML’s installed-base management as a recurring source of revenue and says the company has a strong long-term outlook.
  • He points to a change in sales mix that reduces geographic concentration: China’s share of sales fell from about 50% in 2023–24 to 14%, with more sales going to the United States, South Korea, and Taiwan.
  • Despite what he calls a higher valuation, he is continuing to hold the stock.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view is hold, supported by recurring installed-base revenue and lower exposure to China than in prior years.
  • Export regulations and geographic exposure are the risks specifically discussed.

S&P Global (SPGI)

  • The host says S&P Global is a buy in his view, after the stock fell amid concerns about a “SaaSpocalypse” and AI making data easier to access.
  • He cites a 21 forward P/E and growth in assets linked to its indices, from about $3 trillion to $6 trillion.
  • He also addresses concerns that higher interest rates could reduce debt issuance, arguing that companies still need to issue or refinance debt over time.

Takeaways

  • The host sees the lower valuation and index-linked assets as support for the investment case.
  • The risks discussed are AI-driven disruption and the possibility that interest rates temporarily reduce debt issuance.

Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Microsoft is described as a large, fast-growing company trading at about 26 times forward earnings.
  • The host argues that companies with Microsoft’s scale, distribution, and high-teens revenue growth are attractively valued at mid-to-low-20s P/E multiples.
  • He expects such companies could receive higher valuations again if investor sentiment improves.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view is positive, emphasizing Microsoft’s scale, distribution, and growth relative to its valuation.
  • The potential for a higher valuation is an expectation, not a specific price target or timeline.

Netflix (NFLX)

  • The host calls Netflix one of the most undervalued holdings in his portfolio. He says it trades at about 22 times earnings, down from around 50 times trailing earnings in September 2025.
  • He cites 16% revenue growth, 325 million subscribers, and management commentary that engagement was up 2% year over year. He also says engagement from a show’s first season to its second season has improved.
  • Netflix’s content budget is rising, but the host says revenue is growing faster, creating operating leverage. He notes the company is investing about $20 billion a year in content.
  • He dismisses concerns that YouTube is necessarily displacing Netflix, arguing that consumers can afford both services.

Takeaways

  • The host is bullish, believing that subscriber growth, engagement, and revenue growth contradict negative market narratives.
  • The discussion’s key risk is competition for viewers and concern about whether Netflix’s content can continue to attract audiences.

Costco (COST)

  • The host says Costco’s fundamentals remain strong but its valuation is still high.
  • He has made no changes to the position and does not plan to.

Takeaways

  • The host’s stance is hold without adding or trimming, based on stable fundamentals and a high valuation.

Moody’s (MCO)

  • The host says he feels similarly about Moody’s as he does about S&P Global, though he considers S&P Global the better value.
  • He expects Moody’s to do well over time but offers no specific valuation or price target.

Takeaways

  • The host is positive on Moody’s but sees S&P Global as the more attractive deal between the two.

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)

  • The host says the stock fell 21% in a month, even though revenue, restaurant count, average weekly sales, same-store sales, and to-go business were increasing.
  • He attributes the earnings pressure to beef inflation: net income was down about 16%, and EPS was expected to decline 5% over the year.
  • He says the company is holding back on sharp menu-price increases to preserve customer trust, accepting lower earnings temporarily.

Takeaways

  • The host considers Texas Roadhouse a buy, viewing commodity-cost pressure as temporary and the company’s customer-focused pricing as a long-term choice.
  • The stated risk is that higher beef costs could continue to weigh on earnings.

Duolingo (DUOL)

  • The host says Duolingo’s stock has fallen and that some of the decline is deserved because user growth slowed and paid-subscriber growth has flattened.
  • He says the company is prioritizing user growth and engagement over near-term monetization. Duolingo had 58 million daily active users and 140 million monthly active users, both increasing; daily active users had doubled since 2024.
  • He notes concerns that AI could challenge structured language-learning courses, while saying Duolingo is adding course content and attracting users.

Takeaways

  • The host’s view is that the investment may take time, with user engagement growth offering a positive signal but monetization still a concern.
  • The risk raised is that AI could change demand for conventional language-learning products.

Uber (UBER)

  • The host calls Uber undervalued at a share price of $68 and about 17 times forward earnings, while cautioning that the stock could remain undervalued for an extended period.
  • The main concern is competition from robotaxi companies, including Waymo and Zoox. The host believes this risk is more than reflected in the stock.
  • He argues that Uber could use a hybrid model, combining robotaxis with human drivers to serve locations where robotaxis do not operate and periods of high demand.

Takeaways

  • The host sees potential in Uber’s valuation and possible hybrid approach, but the competitive threat from robotaxis is the central risk.
  • He explicitly cautions that there is no guarantee the stock will rise soon.

DoorDash (DASH)

  • The host says DoorDash’s stock had declined recently amid regulation in New York City and other concerns.
  • He points to improving contribution margins, 35 million members across DashPass and related memberships, rising monthly active users, and growth in orders and revenue in both the United States and internationally.
  • He says he is continuing to hold the stock.

Takeaways

  • The host remains positive based on improving per-order economics and user and order growth.
  • Regulation, including the New York City measures mentioned, is a stated risk.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

  • The host criticizes former Disney CEO Bob Iger, arguing that he undermined successor Bob Chapek after selecting him to lead the company.
  • He also questions Iger’s record as CEO, citing Disney’s stock as up only about 14% over 10 years and EPS as falling from $5.70 to $4.85 over that period.
  • The segment is strongly bearish about Iger’s leadership record, but does not provide a direct buy, sell, or hold recommendation for Disney.

Takeaways

  • The host’s concern is Disney’s long-term stock and earnings performance, alongside what he views as leadership and governance problems.
  • The discussion does not offer a valuation-based investment conclusion.

AI, Enterprise Software, and Agentic Commerce

  • The host argues that large companies with established customer relationships and distribution—including Google, Meta, Mastercard, Amazon, and Microsoft—may benefit as AI agents and commerce develop.
  • He views AI-driven automation as potentially positive-sum, arguing that increased productivity can lower costs, support investment in new products, and free workers to take other jobs or start businesses.
  • He also discusses AI-agent security as an engineering challenge, comparing future agent safeguards to the protections browsers developed against malicious software.
  • AI competition is presented as fast-moving: the host says leading products can change position quickly, using Meta’s recent progress as an example after a period when he believed it had fallen behind.
  • OpenAI and Anthropic are discussed as AI competitors; they are not publicly traded companies.

Takeaways

  • The investment theme is that AI could create opportunities for companies that control distribution, infrastructure, and customer relationships, while also creating competitive pressure for existing products.
  • The transcript gives no specific price targets or timelines for this theme, and its optimism about automation is the host’s argument rather than a certainty.

NVIDIA (NVDA)

  • NVIDIA is not named directly, but the host refers to Jensen Huang as an AI optimist and the leader of a company that earns substantial revenue from AI.
  • The discussion focuses on Huang’s view that AI-agent security can be addressed through engineering, rather than on NVIDIA’s financial results, valuation, or shares.

Takeaways

  • The segment offers a favorable view of AI’s technical potential, but provides no direct stock analysis or investment recommendation for NVIDIA.
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Episode Description
I break down my $1.5 million stock portfolio, including what I’m doing with Google after it fell behind in the AI model race, Meta’s recent surge and new enterprise push, and updates on Amazon, Mastercard, ASML, S&P Global, Netflix, Uber, DoorDash, and more. I also look at the growing debate over AI and jobs, contrasting Jensen Huang’s optimistic view with Andrew Yang’s concerns about automation, before finishing with Bob Chapek’s comments about what happened behind the scenes at Disney and Bob Iger’s return. 0:00 Intro 1:31 $1.5 Million Portfolio Update 3:04 Google Falling Behind in AI 7:29 Meta’s Huge Comeback 10:35 Amazon & the Portfolio 16:29 Netflix Gets Crushed 23:08 Jensen Huang vs. Andrew Yang on AI 32:20 Bob Iger — Fail of the Week
About The Joseph Carlson Show
The Joseph Carlson Show

The Joseph Carlson Show

The world of investing is no longer boring. We explore timeless wealth creation principles, current news and drama, as well as commentary and reaction from members of the community.