• Amazon (AMZN) is the strongest long-term opportunity highlighted, with a $350 fair-value estimate and about 40% upside; weigh AWS growth against heavy AI and data-center spending and negative free cash flow.
• Meta (META) also has a $850 fair-value estimate, roughly 40% above the cited price, supported by growth and strong cash generation, though large infrastructure spending remains a risk.
• Uber (UBER) has a $90 fair-value estimate, around 33% upside; wait for its upcoming earnings report before deciding whether to add.
• DoorDash (DASH) has a $250 fair-value estimate, about 33% upside, with network expansion and retail delivery as key catalysts; its growth-first strategy makes valuation a risk.
• Treat Netflix (NFLX) as a high-risk, high-upside case: the $100 fair-value estimate depends on stronger results, while continued slowing growth could send shares toward $40.

Mastercard (MA)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $700 per share, versus roughly $659–$660 at the time of the episode, implying about 6% upside.
• He described Mastercard as an exceptionally profitable business with a wide moat and said its recent performance and valuation were near historical norms.

Takeaways

• The speaker views Mastercard as a hold, rather than a deeply undervalued opportunity at the episode’s price. His case rests on business quality, but he sees limited near-term valuation upside.

Amazon (AMZN)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $350 per share, which he said represented about 40% upside at the time. He called Amazon one of his best opportunities.
• He praised the company’s growth and business position, particularly AWS, which grew 39% year over year in the quarter discussed, with an operating margin of 38.7%.
• Amazon’s free cash flow was deeply negative because of large capital expenditures, especially investment in AI and data centers. The speaker sees this as a deliberate investment cycle, not necessarily a sign that the underlying business is weak.
• He also sees potential for further efficiency and margin improvement in retail and logistics. He noted that roughly 85% of global IT spending remains on-premises, which could support a long-term shift toward cloud services.
• The speaker said he was not adding to Amazon because it was already a substantial holding and his portfolio was highly concentrated.

Takeaways

• The speaker’s thesis is bullish: Amazon’s investment spending may weigh on cash flow now, but he believes AWS growth and the long-term cloud opportunity justify it.
• Investors considering the thesis should weigh that growth potential against the explicit near-term concern: heavy capital expenditures and negative free cash flow.

Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $350 per share, which he said represented 20%-plus upside at the time.
• He described the latest earnings report as disappointing and said Alphabet needs to demonstrate that its advertising revenue can hold up as AI agents develop.
• He still considers Alphabet a good opportunity but believes its story has more to prove than Amazon’s.
• He said he was not adding because he already had a substantial position and wanted to avoid increasing portfolio concentration.

Takeaways

• The speaker remains bullish but more cautious on Alphabet than on Amazon. The key issue he identified is whether AI agents could put pressure on its advertising business.

Meta Platforms (META)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $850 per share, about 40% above the price at the time.
• He sees Meta as a fast-growing, highly cash-generative business, and is optimistic about its products and the adoption of its Muse agentic tool.
• He argued that Meta’s spending on capital expenditures and infrastructure could strengthen the company over time, even though investors are concerned about the near-term costs.
• He characterized the stock as deeply undervalued but said he was not adding because it was already a large, concentrated portfolio holding.

Takeaways

• The speaker’s view is bullish, based on growth, cash generation, and investment in future capabilities. The main concern discussed is whether substantial spending will produce sufficient long-term benefits.

S&P Global (SPGI)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $550 per share, implying roughly 16% upside at the time.
• He said the company could benefit if investors become less concerned that agentic technology will disrupt its business and its valuation multiple expands.

Takeaways

• The speaker sees potential upside if concerns about AI-related disruption ease. That concern is the key uncertainty he highlighted.

Microsoft (MSFT)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $550 per share, implying about 6–7% upside at the time.
• He described Microsoft as a great company but said its valuation was relatively close to fair value after a recovery from concerns about cloud and software.

Takeaways

• The speaker’s view is positive on the business but less enthusiastic about the valuation: limited upside at the episode’s price compared with some of his other holdings.

ASML (ASML)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $1,800 per share, compared with roughly $1,500 at the time.
• He described ASML’s technology and competitive moat as exceptionally difficult to replicate. He considers the company uniquely positioned and said he believed it was somewhat undervalued.
• He had trimmed 20% of the position when the stock was around $1,900, using the proceeds to fund investments in DoorDash and Uber.

Takeaways

• The speaker is bullish, citing ASML’s distinctive moat, but does not characterize it as a massive bargain at the episode’s price.

Costco (COST)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $800 per share, compared with roughly $1,000 at the time. He estimated the stock was about 22% overvalued.
• Even at his lower estimate, he said Costco would still trade at a premium valuation. He cautioned that any sign of weakness could lead to valuation multiple compression.
• Despite the perceived overvaluation, he said he was slow to sell and might take gains if the stock continued rising.

Takeaways

• The speaker sees Costco as an excellent business but considers the stock overvalued. His comments suggest caution about adding at the episode’s price, while noting that he was not rushing to sell.

Netflix (NFLX)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $100 per share, compared with about $62 at the time—roughly 60% upside if the company succeeds.
• He said the stock had fallen about 50% and argued that the market narrative could improve if Netflix delivered a few stronger quarters.
• He also warned that the stock could fall to $40 if slowdowns and deceleration continued.

Takeaways

• The speaker sees a high-upside but uncertain opportunity. His valuation depends on Netflix succeeding, and he explicitly identified continued slowing growth as a risk.

Texas Roadhouse (TXRH)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $200 per share, compared with about $186 at the time, or roughly 5–6% upside.
• He praised the restaurant’s customer value, food, and service, and said its average weekly sales had risen to about $177,000, up from less than $100,000 when he first invested.
• He cited beef prices and commodity inflation as concerns, but believes Texas Roadhouse can manage them better than competitors.
• He had previously trimmed the position because he did not want a restaurant stock to make up such a large share of his portfolio.

Takeaways

• The speaker remains positive on the business but sees modest upside at the episode’s price. Beef and commodity costs are the specific risks he mentioned.

Moody’s (MCO)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $500 per share. He described the stock as roughly 1–2% overvalued at the time and close to fair value.
• He cited its strength as a business but said its recent recovery had narrowed the valuation gap.

Takeaways

• The speaker’s view is neutral at the episode’s price: he likes the company but was holding off on buying more because the stock was near his estimate of fair value.

Duolingo (DUOL)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate was $200 per share, compared with about $135 at the time. He said this estimate was lower than his previous one because growth had slowed more than expected.
• He was encouraged by user growth but concerned that Duolingo was compromising monetization in pursuit of more users.
• He emphasized that an upcoming earnings report could materially change his assessment.

Takeaways

• The speaker saw potential upside but expressed caution. The trade-off between user growth and monetization, along with the pending earnings report, were the main uncertainties he identified.

Uber (UBER)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $90 per share, compared with about $66 at the time, or roughly 33% upside.
• He was considering adding to the position but planned to wait for the upcoming earnings report before making a fuller assessment.

Takeaways

• The speaker sees potential value but favors waiting for earnings before deciding whether to add. The report could either strengthen the case or increase investor concern, in his view.

DoorDash (DASH)

• The speaker’s fair-value estimate is $250 per share, which he said represented roughly 33% upside at the time.
• He argued that the company prioritizes growth and expanding its network over near-term earnings, so its high price-to-earnings ratio may not capture how management is approaching the business.
• He said DoorDash had signed an agreement to acquire Instacart, which he viewed as a way to expand into retail delivery and strengthen its network.

Takeaways

• The speaker’s view is bullish, based on network growth and potential expansion into retail. He acknowledged that the company’s focus on growth can make near-term valuation metrics look high.

Anthropic (Private company)

• Anthropic reported 45% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth in the third quarter, down from 147% in the second quarter.
• Steve Eisman argued that growth had decelerated and that the company had become less efficient. The speaker agreed that growth had slowed but disputed the idea that this necessarily indicated weakening demand.
• The speaker pointed to rising customer spending and said Anthropic had incurred $5 billion in short-term computing expenses, which he argued made the quarter’s efficiency comparison less representative.
• He said competition and open-weight models could pressure pricing, but believes many businesses will continue to favor established, trusted providers.
• The speaker said he was not investing in Anthropic and did not plan to buy its IPO immediately, though he would consider it as a potential company.

Takeaways

• The discussion presents a mixed picture: rapid growth continues, but its pace has slowed and competition may pressure the business. The speaker considers Anthropic strong but is not recommending an immediate IPO purchase.

AI, Cloud, and Capital Expenditure Theme

• The speaker views AI infrastructure investment as a significant opportunity, particularly for Amazon’s AWS business. He believes high capital expenditures can depress free cash flow in the short term while positioning companies for future growth.
• He also highlighted the potential for businesses to move IT workloads from on-premises systems to cloud providers over a long period.

Takeaways

• The investment case discussed is long-term and infrastructure-focused: potential cloud and AI growth must be weighed against heavy spending and near-term pressure on cash flow.