Investors can capitalize on the recent 40% pullback in Netflix (NFLX) near $74 per share, positioning for an expected 20% annual earnings growth rate driven by international expansion and share buybacks.

S&P Global (SPGI) presents an attractive buying opportunity following an overdone 25% drop, trading at a discounted 21x forward earnings despite its core credit ratings and proprietary financial data being well-insulated from artificial intelligence disruption.

Trading near historic valuation lows at 19x earnings, Uber Technologies (UBER) offers high upside with 35% projected earnings growth this year as market fears surrounding autonomous vehicle competition remain exaggerated.

Meta Platforms (META) stands out as a top generative AI beneficiary with proven monetization, using advanced algorithms to boost ad targeting and engagement while trading at a reasonable earnings multiple.

Global payment giants Mastercard (MA) and Visa (V) provide reliable, high-margin exposure to digital payments, with recent pullbacks creating favorable entry points as emerging tech like stablecoins complements rather than threatens their settlement rails.

Netflix (NFLX)

• Bill Ackman initiated a new position in Netflix at approximately $74 per share, marking his return to the stock after selling at a loss in 2022.
• The stock has pulled back roughly 37% to 40% from all-time highs of $135 per share, largely driven by market fears regarding user engagement and potential acquisition strategies.
• The narrative around declining engagement is viewed as misunderstood:
  • Total watch time is skewed downward by geographic mix shifts, as rapid subscriber expansion in international markets naturally features lower average daily viewing hours than saturated markets like the US and Europe.
  • Watch time quantity differs from engagement quality; high-value events and live programming drive subscriber acquisition and retention despite lower aggregate hours.
  • Short-form video platforms (e.g., TikTok, Instagram Reels) compete primarily with linear television and weaker streaming services rather than Netflix.
• Pershing Square projects earnings per share (EPS) to compound at approximately 20% annually, supported by pricing power and a share repurchase program.

Takeaways

• The recent pullback offers an attractive entry point into the dominant, free-cash-flow-positive streaming leader at a valuation discount.
• Long-term investors should focus on subscriber retention, revenue growth, and capital returns via buybacks rather than aggregate watch-time metrics.

S&P Global (SPGI)

• Bill Ackman established a new stake following a share price drop of more than 25% from peak levels.
• The sell-off was triggered by concerns over generative AI disruption, specifically the launch of Anthropic's Claude Cowork plugin for financial analysis.
• The company's valuation compressed from 25x to 19x forward earnings, marking a five-year low (currently trading around 21x).
• The threat from AI is considered significantly overstated:
  • Capital IQ, the desktop analytics tool perceived as most vulnerable to AI tools, represents less than 7% of total revenue and an even smaller portion of operating profit.
  • Over 40% of Market Intelligence revenue is tied to proprietary, curated data embedded directly in enterprise workflows.
  • Long-term earnings remain primarily driven by the core credit ratings and benchmarks franchise, which supports a multi-year outlook of high single-digit revenue growth.

Takeaways

• Market overreaction to AI disintermediation has created a mispricing in a high-moat, capital-light financial data monopoly.
• S&P Global remains positioned to compound earnings through its proprietary data sets and benchmark index business.

Mastercard (MA) & Visa (V)

• Pershing Square initiated new stakes in both Mastercard and Visa, taking advantage of recent valuation pullbacks.
• Emerging payment technologies are viewed as complementary growth drivers rather than existential threats:
  • Stablecoins target areas where credit/debit cards are not the incumbent, including high-cost remittance corridors, cross-border business-to-business (B2B) payments, and unstable currency environments.
  • Agentic AI commerce is expected to reduce transaction friction and increase overall e-commerce purchase frequency while relying on established card rails for settlement.

Takeaways

• Payment network moats remain highly durable against digital asset and AI disruption.
• Both payment networks offer consistent, high-margin exposure to secular cash-to-digital payment conversions globally.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)

• Bill Ackman added Intercontinental Exchange as a new holding, citing its high-margin, cash-generative financial infrastructure.
• Most exchange revenues are derived from futures and options trading platforms.
• Pershing Square anticipates the company will achieve low-to-mid teens earnings growth supported by structural tailwinds in derivatives trading and financial data demand.

Takeaways

• ICE serves as a defensive, recurring revenue business that benefits from market volatility and secular expansion in exchange-traded derivatives.

Alcon (ALC)

• Alcon was added as a new position based on its leadership in global ophthalmology, eye care, and surgical vision equipment.
• The core investment thesis centers on a razor-and-blade business model:
  • A global install base of over 30,000 surgical units drives high-margin, recurring revenue through specialized consumables.
• Pershing Square expects mid-teens earnings growth alongside future valuation multiple expansion as the business executes on its product pipeline.

Takeaways

• Alcon offers high-quality healthcare exposure with steady demand driven by demographic aging and an entrenched equipment footprint.

Uber Technologies (UBER)

• Uber remains a core portfolio holding despite negative sentiment surrounding competition from Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) and a complicated relationship with Waymo.
• The stock trades around 19x earnings—near historic lows—while earnings are on pace to grow by approximately 35% this year.
• Pershing Square views a hybrid network model combining human drivers with AV fleets as structurally superior to pure autonomous fleets due to peak demand management and asset utilization.
• Uber continues to expand its partner roster with new autonomous vehicle launches planned across multiple cities.

Takeaways

• The market's AV disruption fears have created a valuation disconnect relative to Uber's 35% earnings growth rate and dominant mobility network.

Meta Platforms (META)

• Pershing Square reiterated a bullish stance on Meta, identifying it as one of the clearest commercial beneficiaries of generative AI.
• AI integration is directly enhancing financial performance by:
  • Improving content recommendation algorithms to increase user engagement.
  • Enhancing digital ad targeting and monetization for advertisers.
  • Powering new customer service and consumer-facing AI agents.
• Heavy capital expenditure on compute infrastructure provides downside protection, as excess capacity can be monetized in a supply-constrained compute market.
• Historical data shows that buying Meta when its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio trades in the teens to low 20s has produced strong risk-adjusted returns.

Takeaways

• Meta provides large-cap AI exposure with immediate top-line monetization rather than speculative future revenue, trading at a reasonable earnings multiple.