Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov

Investors should consider a bearish stance on Oil prices as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz increases global supply, though a 60-day window remains for potential price spikes if the fragile MOU collapses. To hedge against fossil fuel volatility and national security risks, shift long-term capital toward Renewable Energy infrastructure and Asymmetric Warfare technologies like drones and cybersecurity. Prepare for a "higher for longer" interest rate environment by avoiding high-leverage positions, as the Federal Reserve under Kevin Warsh signals potential rate hikes to combat persistent 4.2% inflation. Monitor the Boston Beer Company (SAM) and regional hospitality stocks for a short-term revenue boost driven by high-volume consumer spending during the World Cup. Focus on lean, tech-driven defense firms rather than traditional "Big Defense" contractors, which face increased budget scrutiny and a strategic shift away from expensive hardware platforms.

Investors should consider diversifying into Gulf State infrastructure and logistics as regional powers invest heavily in pipelines and rail to bypass the volatile Strait of Hormuz. The shift toward energy independence makes Solar a high-conviction long-term play, especially as domestic solar generation recently surpassed coal for the first time. You should exercise caution with Meta (META), Snap (SNAP), and Alphabet (GOOGL) as strict international bans on social media for minors create significant regulatory and ad-revenue headwinds. Focus on "picks and shovels" AI infrastructure providers like ServiceNow (NOW) and specialized cloud firms like CoreWeave that manage the enterprise-level AI workload. Finally, monitor Gavin Newsom’s political trajectory, as his potential 2028 run signals a future of more aggressive regulatory oversight for Silicon Valley and AI development.

Investors should consider shorting Oil or buying puts as prices trend toward the $90–$95 range following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. For long-term energy plays, focus on infrastructure companies building bypass pipelines in the UAE to de-risk from future Iranian maritime threats. Hims (HIMS) remains a high-conviction growth play as it expands its footprint in the high-demand GLP-1 weight loss market via accessible telehealth. In the tech sector, monitor Anthropic and its competitors for regulatory "kill switch" risks as AI models become tools of statecraft and national security. Finally, the "Golden Age" of New York City suggests bullish opportunities in premium retail like Birkenstock (BIRK) and high-end hospitality brands catering to resilient luxury consumers.

The imminent SpaceX IPO is expected to see a "manufactured" price surge toward a $2 to $3 trillion valuation due to forced NASDAQ 100 index buying, but retail investors should wait 12 months for the price to stabilize before entering. With Oil trading between $92 and $96, investors should brace for continued inflationary pressure and potential supply shocks if conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz. High CPI data of 4.2% has created a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike by year-end, making existing U.S. Treasuries and fixed-income assets risky in the short term. In the real estate sector, San Francisco luxury properties and rentals are seeing a massive surge in demand fueled by tech wealth, despite broader economic cooling. Investors should monitor legislative pressure on Healthcare margins, specifically regarding 340B program markups, which could impact non-profit hospital profitability.

Investors should prioritize long-term positions in Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) as GLP-1 drugs are increasingly viewed as a primary government tool to reduce national healthcare spending. Prepare for a massive wave of "Omega IPOs" by monitoring OpenAI and Anthropic, which are expected to hit public markets as early as September and drive significant capital inflows into the AI sector. To capitalize on shifting military strategies, pivot defense allocations away from traditional hardware toward startups focused on AI-driven drone technology and asymmetric warfare. Consider diversifying away from Big Tech and Big Pharma monopolies, as aggressive antitrust enforcement is becoming a central policy tool to combat the rising cost of living. In the real estate sector, look for investment opportunities in residential developers that benefit from "YIMBY" legislation and potential federal tax credits aimed at massive housing supply increases.

Investors should pivot from speculative AI hype toward established tech giants with robust balance sheets and consistent 15% annual earnings growth to weather current valuation fatigue. Monitor upcoming high-profile IPOs from OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX, as these listings will serve as critical benchmarks for market liquidity and AI investor appetite. Within the defense sector, shift focus from traditional high-cost platforms toward companies specializing in low-cost drone technology and AI-driven asymmetric weaponry. Hedge against ongoing energy volatility by monitoring Middle East tensions, as high oil prices continue to pressure the consumer discretionary sector and broader European markets. Be cautious of regulatory risks and potential "windfall" tax proposals targeting Intel and other strategically important AI firms, which could impact long-term profitability.

Investors should capitalize on the $11 billion political advertising cycle by increasing exposure to digital and local media giants like Google (GOOGL) and Meta (META). Monitor healthcare holdings for regulatory risks, as potential reforms to the 340B Drug Pricing Program could significantly compress margins for large hospital systems and REITs. The continued success of Mark Cuban’s Cost Plus Drugs signals a high-conviction shift toward transparent pharmacy models, making traditional Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) vulnerable to disruption. In the energy sector, expect sustained high prices through 2027 due to geopolitical instability in the Strait of Hormuz, which also creates supply chain risks for agricultural commodities. Long-term portfolios should pivot toward the growing purchasing power of women under 30, who are outperforming men in both educational attainment and workforce participation.

Monitor the upcoming Anthropic IPO as it gains massive momentum, but exercise extreme caution as its projected $1 trillion valuation may leave little upside for retail investors. Avoid the initial public offerings for OpenAI and SpaceX, as current valuations of 100x revenue are considered "insane" and could lead to price corrections of 40% to 80% within the first year. Factor significant regulatory and legal risks into any OpenAI position, as pending lawsuits regarding safety and liability could mirror the costly settlements seen in the tobacco industry. Watch for continued price appreciation in Bay Area luxury real estate and related tech-hub housing, driven by an estimated 11,000 new "AI millionaires" created by this IPO cycle. Maintain a defensive posture in the energy sector, as geopolitical tensions near the Straits of Hormuz remain the primary catalyst for sudden global oil price volatility.

Monitor Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) closely during the summer season to see if their focus on family travel maintains high occupancy and pricing power. In the software sector, watch for Odoo and Vanta as high-growth private players that are disrupting the market by consolidating business tools and automating expensive compliance audits. Be cautious with consumer discretionary stocks, as high gas prices and negative consumer sentiment suggest potential volatility despite positive top-line economic data. The political shift toward "table-flipping" candidates in major hubs like Los Angeles could signal upcoming regulatory changes that will impact local business climates and residential REITs. Finally, keep an eye on Teladoc Health (TDOC) as they aggressively spend on marketing for BetterHelp to capture the rising demand for flexible, direct-to-consumer mental health services.

Investors should pivot toward Energy and Defense sectors as geopolitical tensions in the Straits of Hormuz create long-term volatility in oil prices and a shift toward agile military tech. Given that two-thirds of Americans are cutting spending and the savings rate has collapsed to 2.6%, you should reduce exposure to Consumer Discretionary stocks like retail and luxury. Instead, prioritize Consumer Staples and Utilities to hedge against the highest inflation and lowest consumer sentiment seen in decades. Despite national headwinds, maintain high conviction in California-based Tech firms, as this region continues to drive over 90% of the S&P 500's growth through AI and infrastructure. Finally, look for efficiency plays in "all-in-one" business software platforms like Odoo or Deel as companies aggressively cut costs by consolidating their software subscriptions.

Investors should pivot from legacy aerospace giants toward companies specializing in asymmetric warfare, low-cost drone technology, and AI-driven defense systems to capitalize on shifting military budgets. Continued instability in the Strait of Hormuz suggests a tactical long position in oil and energy assets as a hedge against potential supply disruptions and inflation. While NVIDIA (NVDA) remains a leader, be prepared for regulatory headwinds as global safety frameworks for AI could slow deployment speeds. Avoid or reduce exposure to private prison stocks like CoreCivic (CXW) due to extreme political risk and growing pressure to nationalize detention facilities. Finally, consider diversifying away from U.S. hotel REITs and domestic hospitality as declining international tourism trends favor European travel destinations.

Investors should consider shorting or reducing exposure to legacy media networks like Paramount (PARA) and NBCUniversal, as high-overhead late-night programming becomes economically unsustainable. Conversely, look for growth in creator-centric platforms like Spotify (SPOT) and YouTube (GOOGL), which are capturing high-margin talent migrating from traditional broadcast. Within the energy sector, Texas is emerging as a primary hub for renewable infrastructure, making it a strategic location for wind and green energy investments. Monitor British American Tobacco (BTI) for potential upside, as recent political lobbying may lead to more favorable FDA regulations on flavored vaping products. Finally, be cautious of the "prestige premium" in private higher education and instead focus on the rising brand equity of "Rah-Rah" schools like Vanderbilt or Duke.

Monitor prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket as high-conviction, real-time sentiment indicators for political events that often precede traditional market moves. Be cautious of Google (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) in the near term, as increasing regulatory pressure to police AI-generated election misinformation may drive up compliance costs. Avoid legacy media assets like Paramount (PARA) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), which are viewed as "dying businesses" losing market share to the low-cost podcast and newsletter economy. In the healthcare sector, watch for legislative changes to the 340B program that could squeeze profit margins for large hospital systems and traditional pharmaceutical middlemen. For long-term resilience against U.S. political volatility, focus on geographic sector concentration by overweighting Big Tech in the West and Energy in the South.

Investors should monitor Oracle (ORCL) and Dell (DELL), as these stocks have shown high sensitivity to executive branch policy shifts and specific government contract awards. The defense sector remains a high-conviction play, specifically companies like Palantir (PLTR) and those focused on Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), due to escalating drone-related narratives in regions like Cuba. Retail investors should exercise extreme caution on prediction platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, where high success rates among certain accounts suggest significant insider trading by those with classified information. While Nvidia (NVDA) and other AI leaders continue to dominate, be mindful of rising social and regulatory risks as public sentiment shifts against AI-driven wealth concentration. In the real estate sector, focus on "managed" or gated pockets within major hubs like Los Angeles, as institutional governance failures continue to polarize urban property values.

Monitor NVIDIA (NVDA) closely for a potential policy pivot regarding high-end chip exports to China, as a deal could trigger a massive revenue recovery for the company. Investors should consider U.S. energy (XLE) and domestic refineries as a hedge against "sticky" inflation and geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz. With a 70% market probability of no rate cuts through 2026, avoid betting on a rapid decline in interest rates or a recovery in long-term bonds. Focus on large-cap equities in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ that benefit from the "shareholder transfer," where corporate productivity gains outpace wage growth. For those seeking international exposure, look for domestic Chinese semiconductor firms that are positioned to rally as they strive for self-sufficiency away from U.S. dependencies.

Investors should prioritize BYD (BYDDY) as it leads the global shift in advanced manufacturing, currently controlling a dominant share of the EV and battery supply chain. While Nvidia (NVDA) remains a powerhouse, be cautious of long-term revenue risks as China aggressively develops domestic "80/40" chip alternatives to replace Western imports. Avoid heavy exposure to European industrial giants like Volkswagen (VOW3) and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), which face "economic capture" due to their extreme R&D and manufacturing dependencies on Chinese infrastructure. Expect volatility in consumer discretionary stocks through the summer as high gasoline and food prices drive consumer sentiment toward "complete rage" and reduced spending. Look for emerging growth opportunities in specialized telehealth platforms focusing on menopause and hormonal health, a significantly underserved market with high patient demand.

Investors should prioritize large-cap energy stocks like British Petroleum (BP) and Chevron (CVX), as they are capturing record profits from geopolitical instability and high oil prices. Expect energy-driven inflation to persist through 2027, making the Energy Sector a necessary hedge for transportation and logistics volatility. The global "munitions problem" creates a long-term bullish case for Defense stocks focused on naval hardware and ammunition replenishment to address depleted Western stockpiles. For those tracking healthcare, look past volatile vaccine makers like Moderna (MRNA) and focus on the growing market for fertility treatments and specialized healthcare driven by shifting demographic trends. Finally, use prediction markets like Kalshi as a real-time sentiment indicator for tail-risks, such as the current 19% priced-in probability of a U.S. recession.

Investors should prepare for extreme volatility in Oil prices as geopolitical tensions and new transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz threaten to push prices toward $200 per barrel. To hedge against rising global shipping costs and maritime logistics delays, monitor companies with heavy exposure to international trade routes. High-end luxury brands like Hermès remain resilient investment plays, as their core ultra-wealthy consumer base is insulated from the economic pressures facing middle-class Americans. Be cautious of the NASDAQ and NYSE as indicators of broad economic health, as current all-time highs are driven by extreme wealth concentration rather than general prosperity. Finally, avoid companies where leadership employs "denial and attack" strategies during scandals, as a lack of transparency often leads to long-term governance failures and stock underperformance.

Investors should consider a long-term bullish position in Energy through upstream producers and infrastructure firms like Chevron (CVX), as global supply deficits could keep oil prices elevated through 2027. To hedge against AI scaling bottlenecks, focus on companies specializing in power grid modernization and data center efficiency to bypass growing local resistance and electricity constraints. Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), and Meta (META) are likely to benefit from a "regulatory moat" as new government oversight frameworks for AI favor incumbents with high compliance budgets. Shopify (SHOP) remains a high-conviction play for e-commerce growth, currently powering 10% of all U.S. digital sales. Monitor the Strait of Hormuz and China-Iran relations as primary triggers for sudden market volatility and potential spikes in crude prices.

Investors should consider a Bullish position on Energy and Oil as supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the UAE’s departure from OPEC drive crude prices higher. Defense Prime Contractors are poised for a significant replacement cycle following $9 billion in fast-tracked arms sales and massive military hardware losses. For long-term AI exposure, shift focus toward Data Center infrastructure and power management companies, as these assets are becoming critical state-level economic priorities. Telehealth platforms specializing in reproductive health are expected to see growth following the Supreme Court’s decision to restore mail-order access for Mifepristone. Conversely, maintain a Bearish outlook on the Insurance sector and high-margin Crypto ventures due to rising political calls for profit caps and aggressive regulatory clawbacks.