Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov

Investors should prepare for extreme volatility in Oil prices as geopolitical tensions and new transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz threaten to push prices toward $200 per barrel. To hedge against rising global shipping costs and maritime logistics delays, monitor companies with heavy exposure to international trade routes. High-end luxury brands like Hermès remain resilient investment plays, as their core ultra-wealthy consumer base is insulated from the economic pressures facing middle-class Americans. Be cautious of the NASDAQ and NYSE as indicators of broad economic health, as current all-time highs are driven by extreme wealth concentration rather than general prosperity. Finally, avoid companies where leadership employs "denial and attack" strategies during scandals, as a lack of transparency often leads to long-term governance failures and stock underperformance.

Investors should consider a long-term bullish position in Energy through upstream producers and infrastructure firms like Chevron (CVX), as global supply deficits could keep oil prices elevated through 2027. To hedge against AI scaling bottlenecks, focus on companies specializing in power grid modernization and data center efficiency to bypass growing local resistance and electricity constraints. Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOGL), and Meta (META) are likely to benefit from a "regulatory moat" as new government oversight frameworks for AI favor incumbents with high compliance budgets. Shopify (SHOP) remains a high-conviction play for e-commerce growth, currently powering 10% of all U.S. digital sales. Monitor the Strait of Hormuz and China-Iran relations as primary triggers for sudden market volatility and potential spikes in crude prices.

Investors should consider a Bullish position on Energy and Oil as supply chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the UAE’s departure from OPEC drive crude prices higher. Defense Prime Contractors are poised for a significant replacement cycle following $9 billion in fast-tracked arms sales and massive military hardware losses. For long-term AI exposure, shift focus toward Data Center infrastructure and power management companies, as these assets are becoming critical state-level economic priorities. Telehealth platforms specializing in reproductive health are expected to see growth following the Supreme Court’s decision to restore mail-order access for Mifepristone. Conversely, maintain a Bearish outlook on the Insurance sector and high-margin Crypto ventures due to rising political calls for profit caps and aggressive regulatory clawbacks.

Anticipate increased volatility and potential price hikes for European automakers like Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz following proposals for 25% tariffs on imported vehicles. Investors should favor regulated prediction markets like Kalshi over offshore platforms like Polymarket, as the latter faces higher legal risks and an impending regulatory crackdown on government participants. Monitor the global energy sector for sudden price spikes if U.S. naval blockades on Crude Oil escalate, though current "shadow fleets" are keeping global supplies resilient. Consider long-term opportunities in government contracting and border infrastructure firms following the secured $75 billion in DHS funding for agencies like ICE and CBP. Watch for upcoming court rulings defining prediction markets as either "securities" or "gambling," as this classification will determine whether the SEC or CFTC exerts federal oversight.

Investors should prioritize Meta (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL) as high-conviction hedges against global volatility, as these firms are capturing record ad revenue and user engagement during periods of geopolitical unrest. In the energy sector, prepare for potential downward pressure on oil prices over the medium term as the UAE signals a departure from OPEC to maximize production. The defense sector presents a clear "buy the dip" opportunity for munitions manufacturers and anti-drone technology firms as the U.S. military faces urgent needs to restock depleted inventories. Expect interest rates to remain "higher for longer" following a divided Federal Reserve vote, making near-term rate cuts unlikely for fixed-income planning. Finally, maintain a portfolio stance that prices in persistent "war risk" and market volatility, as the NACHO sentiment suggests no immediate diplomatic resolution with Iran is in sight.

Investors should maintain a high conviction in Alphabet (GOOGL) as it cements its ecosystem as the industry standard by providing free AI certification and tools to the small business sector. To hedge against escalating geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, prioritize domestic energy producers and alternative fertilizer sources to offset rising diesel and input costs. Monitor the Healthcare sector for increased government support of domestic R&D as the U.S. races to maintain its three-year lead in medicine development over China. Given the "affordability crisis" in housing and student debt, shift focus toward consumer staples and away from discretionary sectors sensitive to high energy inflation. Finally, prepare for increased market volatility by diversifying into independent media platforms and technologies that cater to younger demographics disillusioned with traditional institutions.

Investors should consider reducing exposure to Consumer Discretionary sectors as high gasoline prices ($4.18/gallon) and rising food costs act as a "tax" on household spending. Regulatory risks are mounting for Alphabet (GOOGL) and Meta (META), as potential reforms to Section 230 liability protections could significantly increase legal costs and pressure profit margins. Monitor Disney (DIS) for short-term headline volatility following reports of FCC scrutiny regarding ABC’s broadcast license. The agricultural sector remains under pressure, making it a high-risk environment for fertilizer producers and farming equipment manufacturers due to record bankruptcies and trade tariffs. For energy traders, any shift toward Iran sanction relief would likely trigger a sharp decline in oil prices, while continued geopolitical tension maintains a high "war premium" on energy assets.

Investors should consider a long position in Palantir (PLTR) as national security gaps drive increased demand for integrated surveillance and threat-detection software. The agricultural crisis, marked by a 46% surge in farm bankruptcies, suggests avoiding regional banks with Midwest exposure while favoring fertilizer and energy producers to hedge against rising input costs. Expect sustained volatility in Crude Oil prices as geopolitical tensions threaten the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint. Social media giants like Meta (META) and Snap (SNAP) face heightened regulatory and ESG risks as public sentiment shifts against the "attention economy" and its role in social instability. Despite high-profile tragedies, federal legislative action against firearm manufacturers remains unlikely, maintaining a status quo for the defense and safety sectors.

With oil prices topping $100 per barrel due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, investors should consider Energy ETFs (XLE) or large-cap producers to capitalize on sustained geopolitical volatility. The rapid depletion of U.S. missile stockpiles creates a high-conviction replenishment cycle benefiting defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTX), and Northrop Grumman (NOC). Monitor government appropriations closely, as the urgent need to restock munitions provides a long-term tailwind for these specific aerospace and defense firms. In the tech sector, a potential Matt Mahan victory in the California gubernatorial race would signal a shift toward "efficient" governance, serving as a bullish catalyst for Silicon Valley tech interests. Finally, while prediction markets like Polymarket are seeing explosive growth, investors should remain cautious of looming regulatory crackdowns aimed at preventing insider trading by political figures.

Investors should prioritize U.S. domestic energy producers and non-Middle Eastern oil assets to hedge against a potential "global oil shock" caused by instability in the Strait of Hormuz. Expect significant bearish pressure on international airlines like Lufthansa due to rising jet fuel costs, while avoiding Spirit Airlines (SAVE) as it remains a high-risk "zombie company" reliant on government intervention. Apple (AAPL) remains a high-conviction long-term hold as the transition to new CEO John Ternus signals a strategic return to hardware innovation and product-led growth. To hedge against long-term oil volatility, consider exposure to the renewable energy supply chain, specifically EV and solar manufacturing, where China currently maintains market dominance. Avoid speculative cryptocurrency projects mentioned in the current political climate, as analysts remain highly skeptical of the sector's stability and leadership.