Trump’s Foreign Policy Could Define the Midterms — And He’s Losing
Trump’s Foreign Policy Could Define the Midterms — And He’s Losing
Podcast56 min 45 sec
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Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights

Allocate toward discount retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) to capitalize on price-sensitive consumers shifting away from premium grocers amid persistent food inflation.

Overweight upstream energy producers and refiners, which continue to generate robust cash flows as geopolitical tensions sustain diesel prices above $6.00 per gallon.

Maintain long-term exposure to defense and aerospace manufacturers positioned to benefit from multi-year production backlogs to replenish critically depleted allied stockpiles of Patriot missile interceptors.

Target Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) for expanding recurring revenue driven by direct-to-consumer demand for Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) GLP-1 weight-loss drug, Wegovy.

Accumulate shares of Amazon (AMZN) as the company widens its logistics moat by scaling automated drone delivery across nearly 500 cities this year to reduce last-mile distribution costs.

Detailed Analysis

Defense & Aerospace Sector

  • Heavy military operational demands are severely depleting U.S. and allied munitions stockpiles, particularly Patriot missile interceptors.
    • Interceptors cost millions of dollars per unit and require years of lead time to manufacture, creating immediate supply constraints.
    • Allied inventories (such as Israel's ballistic missile defense stockpiles) have reportedly fallen into the double digits, shifting primary defense reliance to U.S. Navy assets.
    • Forward operational bases and logistics infrastructure have sustained extensive disruptions, lengthening supply routes.

Takeaways

  • Manufacturers of specialized missile defense systems face long-term production backlogs and elevated replenishment demand, though physical manufacturing lead times remain a structural bottleneck.

Energy & Transportation Fuels

  • Escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has driven retail gasoline prices to $4.10 per gallon and diesel fuel prices above $6.00 per gallon.
    • High diesel costs act as a critical input cost across the broader supply chain, disproportionately pressuring the agriculture and food distribution sectors.
    • Sustained elevated energy costs continue to present broader inflationary headwinds for consumer spending.

Takeaways

  • High diesel prices increase operating costs for freight, logistics, and farming businesses, while providing elevated cash flow for upstream energy producers and refiners.

Agriculture & Retail Grocery (WMT, TGT, AMZN)

  • Domestic agricultural producers face headwinds from bilateral trade disputes with Canada and federal policy shifts allowing 300,000 tons of discounted beef imports from Argentina and Brazil.
  • Widespread food safety recalls (such as supplier recalls affecting Taylor Farms products) have highlighted supply chain vulnerabilities.
  • Heightened consumer awareness of price differentials between premium grocers (such as Whole Foods) and large-scale discount retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Target (TGT) for identical packaged goods.

Takeaways

  • Consumer price sensitivity during periods of elevated food inflation favors low-cost, scaled discount retailers over high-margin specialty grocers.
  • Policy shifts on foreign agricultural imports and retaliatory tariffs create localized margin risk for domestic livestock and farming operations.

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

  • The company is significantly scaling up its automated logistics capabilities, targeting expansion of drone delivery services to nearly 500 cities and towns this year.
    • The initiative represents a concerted effort to normalize autonomous last-mile delivery and reduce distribution times.

Takeaways

  • Long-term investments in autonomous drone logistics could further enhance delivery efficiency and strengthen the company's competitive moat against traditional retail logistics networks.

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. (HIMS) / Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)

  • Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) provides telehealth access to Wegovy, a GLP-1 prescription medication developed by Novo Nordisk (NVO) that achieves up to 20% body weight loss when combined with diet and exercise.
    • The service operates via a direct-to-consumer digital health platform offering provider consultations, ongoing messaging support, and home delivery.

Takeaways

  • Telehealth platforms that facilitate friction-free access to high-demand GLP-1 weight-loss therapies continue to expand their recurring subscription and customer base, though service availability remains subject to state-level regulations.

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY)

  • The company has introduced Eblis (lebrikizumab-lbkz), a 250 mg / 2 mL prescription injection for adults and children aged 12 and older with moderate-to-severe eczema (atopic dermatitis).
    • The therapy targets patients whose condition is not sufficiently managed by prescription topical treatments.

Takeaways

  • Expansion into targeted dermatological indications broadens pharmaceutical revenue pipelines, although commercial uptake depends on clinical efficacy relative to established topical corticosteroids and competing biologics.
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Episode Description
Jessica Tarlov is joined by Ryan Grim, reporter at Drop Site News and co-host of Breaking Points, for a wide-ranging conversation nine weeks before the midterms. They open with the state of the races. Democrats have flipped roughly 30 state legislative seats in special elections since Trump returned to office, while Republicans have flipped none. With a wave of progressives and anti-establishment candidates winning primaries, can Democrats make the big tent work in the general? And how would Ryan rate the Republican strategy heading into the fall? They check in on the race in Michigan with progressive Abdul Al-Sayed. And one primary still to watch: Massachusetts, where 80-year-old Senator Ed Markey is running for another six-year term against Rep. Seth Moulton. In a cycle where incumbents have been falling to younger, more progressive challengers, Markey has uniquely positioned himself as the more progressive candidate — touting his record as coauthor of the Green New Deal. Polling has him far ahead of the younger Moulton. What does Markey's campaign tell us about where the Democratic Party is heading? Then, according to reporting in The Washington Post, a classified Pentagon planning document revealed that senior U.S. military leaders have warned Secretary Pete Hegseth that sustaining current operations against Iran isn't feasible. Ryan breaks down how dire the situation actually is — and what it means that these officials are putting this on record, knowing how Hegseth treats military leaders who push back. A New York Times investigation has found that a growing number of political influencers are being paid by campaigns and outside groups to endorse candidates on social media without disclosing those payments to viewers, a practice that is largely unregulated at the federal level. And, more distressingly, the Pentagon appears to also have certain content creators on their payroll. What does this mean for the future of political media?  On the Canada trade war: Google Maps has renamed Lake Ontario "Lake America" for U.S. users, following the Gulf of Mexico precedent. Meanwhile, Republican lawmakers are speaking out against Trump's tariff escalation and his decision to allow 300,000 tons of foreign beef into the country duty-free. Is this another Trump news cycle that ends in a backdown — or something more serious? For ad-free episodes, exclusive livestreams, and to connect with Scott, Jessica, and the Raging Moderates community, join us at ProfG+ on Substack: https://ragingmoderates.profgmedia.com/ Get The Monday Rage newsletter: https://profgmedia.com/s/monday-rage/ Follow Raging Moderates on IG, Tiktok, and Facebook: https://www.instagram.com/ragingmoderatespod/ https://www.tiktok.com/@ragingmoderates https://www.facebook.com/ragingmoderates Follow Jessica Tarlov on Instagram, Substack, and Bluesky: https://instagram.com/jessicatarlov https://substack.com/@jessietarlov https://bsky.app/profile/jessicatarlov.bsky.social Follow Scott on Instagram, Substack, and Bluesky: https://instagram.com/profgalloway https://substack.com/@profgalloway https://bsky.app/profile/profgalloway.com Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
About Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov

Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov

By Vox Media Podcast Network

We all know elections are won in the middle so why aren't politicians giving the people what they want? Bestselling author, professor and entrepreneur Scott Galloway and political strategist and The Five co-host Jessica Tarlov are here to give those of us who reside somewhere between the center left and the center right their takes on the latest politics all through a centrist lens. New episodes every Wednesday and Friday. Part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.