The Canada Trade War Could Hand Democrats A Senate Majority (ft. Abdul El-Sayed)
The Canada Trade War Could Hand Democrats A Senate Majority (ft. Abdul El-Sayed)
Podcast59 min 49 sec
Listen to Episode
Note: AI-generated summary based on third-party content. Not financial advice. Read more.
Quick Insights
  • Paramount’s planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery may strengthen the combined company’s ability to compete, but treat it as execution-sensitive; the episode expected closing in about two weeks, not as a confirmed completion.
  • Fox Corp. showed stronger network revenue momentum than CNN in the figures discussed—Fox News revenue was about $3.3 billion, up 5%, while CNN’s was about $1.8 billion, down from roughly $2.2 billion in 2021—but these figures alone are not enough to support a stock recommendation.
  • Be cautious with companies exposed to agriculture, autos, steel, and manufacturing while broad tariff policy remains a risk; the discussion offered no company-specific trade or price target.
  • Domestic EV manufacturing is a potential policy-supported theme, but no automaker, timeline, or investment case was identified.
Detailed Analysis

Paramount / Warner Bros. Discovery

  • Paramount’s $111 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery had cleared its last major hurdle after a settlement with a coalition of state attorneys general. The companies expected to close the deal in about two weeks.
  • Scott Galloway argued the merger would help the companies compete with much larger technology and media rivals, and that blocking it could have weakened both businesses.
  • The hosts also discussed concerns about possible job cuts, effects on Hollywood, and whether a Paramount-appointed board could meaningfully protect editorial independence at CNN and CBS.

Takeaways

  • The discussion presents a strategically positive but execution-sensitive case for the merger: greater scale may help the combined business compete, but the deal’s benefits depend on integration and how it handles employment and editorial-independence concerns.
  • The stated closing timeline is an expectation from the episode, not confirmation that the deal closed. The transcript gives no valuation analysis or specific stock recommendation.

CNN / Fox Corp.

  • Galloway cited revenue figures in comparing the networks: CNN at about $1.8 billion, down from roughly $2.2 billion in 2021, and Fox News at about $3.3 billion, with Fox up 5%. He characterized CNN as a significant source of cash for its owner, while acknowledging its revenue decline.
  • The conversation raised the possibility that the Ellisons’ political leanings could affect CNN and CBS, but Galloway argued that the networks’ commercial importance could discourage politically motivated interference.

Takeaways

  • The figures suggest different business momentum for the two networks in the discussion: declining revenue at CNN versus growth at Fox News. They are revenue figures, not profit or valuation comparisons, so they are not enough on their own to judge either company as an investment.
  • Editorial independence and ownership decisions were identified as uncertainties for CNN and CBS following the merger.

Meta Platforms, Alphabet, and Amazon

  • The companies were cited as much larger competitors that help explain why Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery might seek greater scale.
  • Galloway described the merger as a way for traditional media companies to strengthen their position against major technology platforms.

Takeaways

  • The discussion points to competitive pressure from large technology companies as a continuing challenge for traditional media.
  • No company-specific investment recommendation, price target, or financial outlook was given for Meta, Alphabet, or Amazon.

Trade-war-exposed sectors: agriculture, autos, steel, and manufacturing

  • The Canada trade war was described as affecting agriculture, autos, steel, and manufacturing, with economic pressure already being felt by voters in states including Michigan and Maine.
  • Abdul El-Sayed argued that broad, indiscriminate tariffs can raise costs and said he would favor rolling back the tariffs he described as aimless. He also supported using targeted tariffs, subsidies, and investment to develop manufacturing capacity and jobs.

Takeaways

  • The discussion is cautious on broad tariffs because of their potential economic effects on trade-exposed industries. Tariff policy remains a risk for companies in these sectors, though the transcript gives no company-level estimates.
  • El-Sayed’s proposed industrial policy could favor selected domestic manufacturing industries, but it is a policy position—not a specific investment recommendation.

Electric vehicles and domestic manufacturing

  • El-Sayed said Detroit should aim to produce a $25,000 electric vehicle with a 300-mile range, while also maintaining U.S. leadership in internal-combustion engines.
  • He described a possible policy mix of investment, subsidies, and targeted tariffs to support EV manufacturing and other high-job-growth industries.

Takeaways

  • The comments highlight a potential domestic EV manufacturing theme, particularly if future policy supports investment and local production.
  • The transcript provides no named automaker, production timeline, or estimate of the proposal’s financial viability.

Data centers

  • Data centers came up in the context of Mike Rogers changing his position after Michigan voters responded negatively to the issue.
  • The conversation focused on the political risk around the topic, not on data-center investment returns or specific companies.

Takeaways

  • The discussion suggests public and political sentiment may affect data-center policy, but it does not provide enough information to assess the sector’s investment outlook.

Political prediction markets (Kalshi)

  • The hosts cited Kalshi odds of 61% for Democrats sweeping the House and Senate in November.
  • They also cited odds of 69% for Abdul El-Sayed winning Michigan’s Senate race.

Takeaways

  • These figures reflect prediction-market probabilities discussed on the show, not guaranteed outcomes or conventional market forecasts.
  • The transcript does not recommend trading these contracts or provide a risk-adjusted investment case.

Ask about this postAnswers are grounded in this post's content.
Episode Description
Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov start with the biggest headlines of the day, starting with the Canada trade war, which is now having direct consequences for Republicans in the Senate races that will decide chamber control. As Vice President JD Vance stumps in red districts, Kalshi currently puts the odds of Democrats sweeping both the House and Senate at 61%. The $111 billion Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery merger has cleared its last major hurdle, with the company and a coalition of state attorneys general led by California's Rob Bonta reaching a settlement on the antitrust lawsuit that had held up the deal. CEO David Ellison plans to close within approximately two weeks. Was this outcome inevitable — and what does it mean for media consolidation?  Then, Scott and Jess are joined by Abdul El-Sayed, who is running to become Michigan's next U.S. Senator, bringing years of public health experience including leading the Detroit Health Department and serving as director of Wayne County's Department of Health, Human & Veterans Services. They’ll touch on how the Canada trade war is hitting Michigan voters in their wallets and what Mike Rogers is getting wrong on trade. Plus, why he's campaigning with Kamala Harris when other Democrats in difficult races are keeping their distance — and what role he thinks Harris should play in the party right now. Finally. his position on Israel and Gaza, how he talks to Jewish voters who have concerns about his stance, and whether he will sign a petition from a coalition of Michigan rabbis and Jewish leaders outlining five "nonnegotiables" on Jewish safety and sovereignty. I Disagree by Jessica Tarlov is out now!Order it here: https://sites.prh.com/idisagree For ad-free episodes, exclusive livestreams, and to connect with Scott, Jessica, and the Raging Moderates community, join us at ProfG+ on Substack: https://ragingmoderates.profgmedia.com/ Get The Monday Rage newsletter: https://profgmedia.com/s/monday-rage/ Follow Raging Moderates on IG, Tiktok, and Facebook: https://www.instagram.com/ragingmoderatespod/ https://www.tiktok.com/@ragingmoderates https://www.facebook.com/ragingmoderates Follow Jessica Tarlov on Instagram, Substack, and Bluesky: https://instagram.com/jessicatarlov https://substack.com/@jessietarlov https://bsky.app/profile/jessicatarlov.bsky.social Follow Scott on Instagram, Substack, and Bluesky: https://instagram.com/profgalloway https://substack.com/@profgalloway https://bsky.app/profile/profgalloway.com Subscribe to our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@RagingModerates Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
About Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov
Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov

Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov

By Vox Media Podcast Network

We all know elections are won in the middle so why aren't politicians giving the people what they want? Bestselling author, professor and entrepreneur Scott Galloway and political strategist and The Five co-host Jessica Tarlov are here to give those of us who reside somewhere between the center left and the center right their takes on the latest politics all through a centrist lens. New episodes every Wednesday and Friday. Part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.