The author expresses a bullish sentiment on Kalshi, taking an all-in position on the US Fed decision that the Fed maintains rate for October.

The trade features a cost of $84.44 with a max payout of $151.49, representing a potential ~1.8x return. The thesis relies on a 50.2% probability for the October 28, 2026 meeting, dropping oil prices, and cooler expected CPI data.