Kevin Xu

AI Semiconductors

AI infrastructure remains the dominant opportunity, especially photonics and memory, but abrupt reversals and unreliable earnings calls make position sizing important.

• MRVL–LITE: Marvell’s all-stock acquisition values Lumentum at about $115B; the deal is targeted to close in H1 2028, pending approvals.
• AAOI: Traders see a photonics read-through from LITE’s demand and capacity claims, with speculative $90–$100 targets; high-volatility calls and leveraged exposure amplify risk.
• MU: Memory shares are trading amid sharp rallies and reversals, while intensifying Chinese competition is a key threat to the bullish thesis.

Macro And Risk

Optimism about an oil-driven relief rally and lower yields collides with elevated volatility, rising rate concerns, and repeated failed bounce calls.

• WTI oil: Around $97/barrel in cited moves, oil is a macro swing factor; an Iran deal could ease pressure, but deal rumors were disputed.
• US10Y / VIX: The 10-year yield reached 5.356% as VIX jumped to 22.26, challenging claims that yields had peaked and risk assets were ready to rally.
• SPY / QQQ / SOXX: Bounce predictions followed sharp drawdowns, but the sources provide no durable confirmation that a market bottom is in.

AI Capex

Massive AI spending supports infrastructure demand, yet financing costs and uncertain monetization leave investors exposed to dilution and credit risk.

• META: FY26 capex guidance of $130–145B and roughly –$9B consensus Q3 free cash flow sharpen questions about AI monetization and funding.
• CRWV: CoreWeave 2030 bonds were quoted near 11.8% yield; that high yield signals material credit risk, not guaranteed income.