All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg

Bending Spoons is an acquisition-led investment story, but it has no ticker and the discussion provides no buy recommendation or price target; evaluate its execution and ability to manage leverage before investing. Eventbrite (EB) investors should wait for deal terms and closing details before acting, as the discussion gives no purchase price or expected benefits. Treat Vimeo (VMEO) as an unproven turnaround: no company-specific financial results or timeline were provided to support a trade.

• Treat California policy changes as a watchlist theme, not an immediate trade: the proposed tax and regulatory cuts depend on election results and legislative action.
• Monitor California energy and fuel-related businesses for policy changes, but don’t base investments on the campaign claim that gasoline could fall from about $6 to $3 per gallon.
• Be cautious with California real estate and wildfire-exposed property given insurance constraints, rebuilding delays, and unresolved litigation.
• The discussion names no specific securities or actionable price targets, so avoid treating its speculative data-center and infrastructure ideas as funded investment opportunities.

Private equity and secondary market investors should target Boom Supersonic, which is near-term monetizing its proprietary jet engines by supplying over 10 gigawatts of generation capacity to AI data centers over the next five years. Ahead of its planned 2030 commercial airline launch, Boom Supersonic offers substantial long-term growth backed by 130 pre-orders and unanimous U.S. legislative support for overland supersonic routes. Public market investors should view United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) as a premier beneficiary, well-positioned to capture highly profitable business travel market share by introducing 3.5-hour transatlantic flights. Conversely, investors should exercise caution regarding The Boeing Company (BA), as a lack of clean-sheet designs and heavy reliance on outsourced legacy manufacturing expose the incumbent to long-term structural disruption.

Surging artificial intelligence demand is making power access the primary growth bottleneck, creating a critical multi-year investment opportunity in AI Energy & Data Center Infrastructure as global capacity faces severe shortages within the next 3 years.

Investors should prioritize energy providers and infrastructure assets securing long-term power contracts with hyperscalers like Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), where electricity now accounts for roughly 50% of ongoing AI operating costs.

While NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) remains the dominant near-term leader for hardware demand, traditional chip architectures utilized by legacy players like Intel Corporation (INTC) face major long-term energy-efficiency headwinds.

For high-upside venture exposure over the next 2 to 3.5 years, monitor private deep-tech startups in 4D Dynamical Computing and non-von Neumann architectures that aim to deliver a 1,000x leap in chip power efficiency.

Investors should prioritize discovery-based advertising platforms over traditional search, as browsing-driven consumer platforms are far more insulated from generative AI disruption. AppLovin (APP) represents a high-conviction growth opportunity as its deep-learning recommendation engine expands from mobile gaming into e-commerce advertising, backed by industry-leading 84% to 85% EBITDA margins and strong cash generation. Meta Platforms (META) offers similar structural resilience, using entertainment-driven social media to capture high-margin impulse shopping that AI chatbots cannot easily replicate. In contrast, investors should exercise caution with Alphabet (GOOGL), as emerging conversational AI models directly threaten its core intent-based search advertising franchise.

Investors should consider building a position in Airbus SE (EADSY / AIR) to capitalize on its sustained technological leadership and multi-year market share gains in the commercial aviation sector. Conversely, exercise caution and reduce exposure to The Boeing Company (BA) due to persistent operational vulnerabilities, brand impairment, and regulatory scrutiny following the 737 MAX failures. Within the broader aerospace manufacturing theme, prioritize companies that invest in genuine product innovation rather than rushed, short-term engineering retrofits. Finally, avoid high-risk infrastructure plays like Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc. (TKECF / 9501.T), where regulatory complacency and catastrophic environmental tail-risks can create massive liabilities and permanently impair capital.

Investors should consider buying Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) as NASA aggressively reallocates capital to outsource routine satellite manufacturing and launch services to commercial vendors. Those with access to private equity secondary markets should look at SpaceX, which remains the cornerstone of American space infrastructure ahead of critical Artemis III lunar tests in summer 2027. Build exposure to the Space Nuclear Power & Advanced Propulsion sector by targeting aerospace suppliers developing small modular fission reactors and advanced thrusters ahead of major deep-space missions in 2028. Finally, invest in the Lunar Economy & Commercial Robotics theme by tracking autonomous systems and robotics developers, as NASA accelerates multi-year commercial contracting ahead of the Artemis IV crewed moon landing in 2028.

Exercise caution with California municipal bonds tied to high-speed transit expansion due to extreme execution risks, ongoing budget blowouts, and multi-million-dollar contractor delay liabilities.

Reduce exposure to publicly funded healthcare providers and contractors heavily reliant on Medicaid or state welfare grants amid intensifying federal fraud audits and asset seizures.

Capitalize on increased regulatory scrutiny by investing in fraud detection software and enterprise compliance monitoring firms serving state and local governments.

Seek growth in the creator economy by targeting decentralized media platforms and subscription networks like X that continue to capture high-engagement audience share from traditional media.

Investors should look to Meta Platforms (META) as a core growth holding, supported by its sustainable, multi-billion-dollar AI infrastructure expansion and proactive reduction of regulatory risk. Gain direct exposure to the emerging consumer AI wearables market through EssilorLuxottica (ESLOY), which is driving high-margin growth through its exclusive manufacturing of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses. Consider Entergy Corporation (ETR) as a lower-risk utility trade, as tech-funded data center agreements expand its commercial power load without capital expenditure burdens. Together, these positions offer a balanced strategy to capitalize on the ongoing data center expansion and mass-market edge-AI hardware adoption.

NVIDIA (NVDA) represents a high-conviction core holding trading at a historically reasonable 14x forward earnings while directly converting massive tech-sector infrastructure spending into cash flow.

Capitalize on critical supply chain bottlenecks by maintaining exposure to hardware and memory leaders like Dell Technologies (DELL) and SK Hynix (000660.KS), both of which are capturing outsized gains from server and chip shortages.

Target software and platform plays like Uber (UBER) and Snowflake (SNOW), which are set to expand profit margins as they drive 20% to 30% revenue growth without adding headcount through AI-driven productivity.

Maintain a balanced, unleveraged allocation to the broader AI Infrastructure & Semiconductor Sector to guard against short-term risks tied to power grid constraints and higher data center financing costs.

Keep a close watch on the monthly revenue growth of private frontier labs OpenAI and Anthropic as the primary early-warning barometer for the health of the entire tech ecosystem.

Investors should allocate capital toward utilities, power generation infrastructure, and traditional oil and natural gas to profit from the soaring electricity demands of artificial intelligence data centers.

Increase exposure to enterprise cybersecurity firms, which are positioned for immediate demand as frontier AI models create new digital vulnerabilities requiring automated defensive tools.

Target the industrial construction, heavy equipment, and domestic manufacturing sectors to capture massive multi-year capital reallocation toward rebuilding physical U.S. infrastructure.

Exercise caution with large-cap technology stocks heavily reliant on foreign talent, as newly imposed $100,000 H-1B visa fees will likely increase operational and hiring costs.

Fixed-income investors can lock in attractive yields near 5% on 30-year U.S. Treasuries (US30Y), with long-term bond price upside tied to government efforts to reduce the federal deficit toward 3% of GDP.

Investors should prioritize the Enterprise AI Applications theme over standalone model creators, as severe token price deflation shifts long-term profit margins directly to software and workflow platforms. Microsoft (MSFT) stands out as a core holding, positioned to capture high-margin enterprise growth as Microsoft Copilot expands across its massive user base alongside its Azure cloud infrastructure. While NVIDIA (NVDA) maintains market dominance in data center compute, cloud hyperscalers are actively diversifying hardware to lower their massive capital expenditures. Consequently, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) offers a compelling investment opportunity as it gains market share as the primary secondary chip supplier for major enterprise AI workloads.

Investors should position for near-term momentum in Tesla (TSLA) ahead of its aerospace-automotive crossover product reveal scheduled for October 1st. Newly public SpaceX represents a premier growth asset in Space Infrastructure as Starlink expands beyond its low 2% global penetration and deploys orbital AI Compute satellites next year. EchoStar (SATS) offers an attractive strategic play after monetizing its wireless spectrum for direct cash and equity ownership in SpaceX. Critical chip packaging shortages continue to create strong multi-year tailwinds for the Semiconductor Sector, supported by domestic initiatives like TerraFab completing an R&D fabrication line by the end of next year. While Artificial Intelligence hardware demand remains robust, investors should exercise caution with foundation model developers as emerging safety concerns elevate legal and regulatory liabilities.

NVIDIA (NVDA) remains the primary core holding in the sector, backed by 97% year-over-year revenue growth and critical partnerships that secure the power and infrastructure needed to sustain computing dominance.

Upstream hardware suppliers like TSMC (TSM) for semiconductor manufacturing, alongside Corning (GLW) and Lumentum (LITE) for critical optical components, offer essential picks-and-shovels exposure to scaling compute demands.

To capitalize on the multi-decade energy and data center infrastructure boom, consider agile regional "NeoCloud" providers such as Nebius (NBIS) that are rapidly locking down constrained local land and power capacity.

At the application layer, allocate toward domain-specific AI software targeting high-impact commercial fields like autonomous driving and healthcare automation, where real-world deployment is accelerating fastest.

Consider an allocation to Palo Alto Networks (PANW) to capitalize on mandatory institutional and index fund buying following its recent addition to the S&P 100 index.

Rotate away from struggling legacy apparel like Nike (NKE) and into specialized, high-growth footwear leaders like On Holding (ONON) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A / BRK.B)—parent company of Brooks Running—which continue to capture retail shelf space and market share.

Target AI infrastructure and edge computing providers like Amazon (AMZN), Nebius (NBIS), and Apple (AAPL) as enterprise budgets shift heavily toward hosting secure open-source AI inside dedicated private clouds to protect proprietary data.

Exercise caution with upcoming frontier AI Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) like Anthropic, where severe product liability disclosures and safety controversies could force steep valuation discounts for public market investors.

Investors should maintain core long positions in NVIDIA (NVDA) through 2027 as its vertically integrated hardware and open-source strategy undercuts closed-source AI pricing by up to 90%.

San Francisco residential real estate owners have an optimal 6-to-12-month window to sell into peak liquidity from upcoming AI IPOs, with ultra-luxury valuations projected to surge from $3,000 up to $5,000 per square foot.

Buy Chevron (CVX) to capture strong cash flows as it leverages a new 100-year concession over 65 billion barrels of heavy crude to supply high-margin US Gulf Coast refining operations.

Early investors and employees in late-stage AI startups should de-risk by selling 10% to 20% of their holdings on secondary markets to protect against excessive 50x to 100x revenue valuations.

Allocate capital toward AI infrastructure and power generation assets, specifically targeting the power grid enhancements and specialized cooling providers required to support expanding data centers.

Nvidia (NVDA) remains a top growth investment following record earnings, with management guiding for 70% revenue growth next fiscal year on sustained AI infrastructure demand. Salesforce (CRM) presents an attractive enterprise software opportunity after raising full-year revenue guidance to $46 billion and securing its position as a core data layer for AI agents. In healthcare, Moderna (MRNA) offers high-upside potential in the emerging personalized cancer immunotherapy market following breakthrough trial results for its custom mRNA melanoma treatment. Conversely, investors should exercise caution with long-duration fixed income, as a massive $10 trillion government debt refinancing cycle over the next 12 months threatens to keep 30-year U.S. Treasury yields elevated above their current 5.2% to 5.3% range.

Investors should target early-stage high-beta venture capital opportunities that back adaptable, high-agency founders capable of delivering asymmetric upside through strategic pivots.

In the artificial intelligence sector, direct capital toward frontier developers like Anthropic and specialized platforms applying models to proprietary scientific data in biotechnology and materials science rather than generic enterprise automation.

For public and alternative market allocations, prioritize systematic quantitative funds and algorithmic trading strategies that leverage cross-disciplinary hard sciences like physics and advanced mathematics over traditional fundamental analysis.

Balance aerospace investments by securing near-term revenue in commercial satellite infrastructure and low-Earth orbit logistics driven by industry leaders like SpaceX.

Finally, maintain small venture-stage allocations in advanced propulsion and next-generation energy systems to capture long-term disruptive upside in deep-space commercialization.

Investors should build long-term exposure to nuclear energy by investing in uranium producers and advanced modular reactor (SMR) developers ahead of federal targets for space-deployed reactors by 2028 and commercial fusion by 2035. Position in quantum computing hardware and software firms to capture accelerated Department of Energy contract awards leading up to the government's 2028 benchmark. In the artificial intelligence space, focus on scientific AI leaders like Alphabet (GOOGL) that stand to benefit from redirected federal research grants. Commercial aerospace and defense contractors are prime opportunities for steady revenue backed by federal mandates to return to the Moon by 2028 and establish a lunar base by 2030. Finally, prioritize domestic critical minerals and rare earth elements miners and recyclers as national security initiatives drive urgent supply-chain reshoring.

Lock in elevated yields by allocating to US Treasuries and short-term cash instruments, as the 30-year US Treasury yield hovering near 5.3% offers attractive low-risk income amid tightening market liquidity. Maintain core exposure to the expanding compute infrastructure theme through NVIDIA (NVDA), the primary hardware provider as AI data centers grow toward an estimated 3% of GDP. Tap into the rapid rollout of autonomous mobility and delivery via Alphabet (GOOGL), which is doubling its Waymo fleet every six months, and Uber (UBER) as it scales automated logistics partnerships. Position in Meta Platforms (META) to capture the performance gains of cost-effective open-source AI, while sizing positions carefully to manage potential headline risk from major platform liability lawsuits. Balance these positions with real assets and broad market equities to maintain a reliable long-term hedge against sticky 3% to 4% inflation and expanding fiscal deficits.