China is restricting the global supply of Indium Phosphide (InP), creating a 12-18 month qualification bottleneck that benefits Sivers Semiconductors ($SIVE.ST), Lumentum ($LITE), Win Semiconductors, Aehr Test Systems ($AEHR), Aixtron (AIXA), and Soitec ($SOI.PA) due to their pricing power, non-Chinese supply chains, or essential equipment and testing services. Conversely, Coherent ($COHR) and Applied Optoelectronics ($AAOI) face supply risks due to their reliance on Chinese-manufactured substrates or components. AXT ($AXTI) is identified as high-risk, as its business model depends entirely on Chinese export approvals for its InP substrates.