The author predicts that HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is a mistake and will see a 90% drop in volume within the next 5–10 years. While DRAM stocks are expected to potentially double or triple in the near term, a drawdown of at least 70% from their peak is forecasted within 3–10 years. The analysis criticizes CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) for adding $3,000 in bill-of-materials costs and suggests that optics driven by SerDes using LPDDR or DDR is a more rational solution.